Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Troy is missing apparently its leading rusher and four starting offensive linemen due to injury, opt-outs, etc. And the Trojans can't stop the run, allowing 183.2 YPG. Thanks to the nation's leading rusher in Cam Cook and dual-threat QB Caden Creel, Jax State is fourth nationally in rushing. Half unit. Both the AL.com guys previewing the game like the Gamecocks.
This just feels like a game the veteran Knicks might be itching for more than the young Spurs considering NYC hasn't celebrated an NBA championship in anything since 1973. And there is the fact Victor Wembanyama is expected to remain on a pitch count and perhaps come off the bench again. I know cash is at stake here, but the Spurs might be a tad flat off that really entertaining upset of OKC on Saturday. If we go by season net rating, NY is at plus-8.6 and SA at plus-4.2. Also pretty sure tonight will be mostly Knicks fans in Vegas for what that's worth.
Think this number has reached a peak. Home teams generally dictate tempo, and that's what I'm counting on here as Dayton generally plays games in the 140s or 150s -- the Flyers allow 71.0 PPG. Florida State will want to push tempo but was held to 76 points in its lone true road game and also held in check by good defensive teams like Texas A&M (FSU scored 59 points) and Houston (scored 67). Our model -- I look for totals -- has 154 points scored.
I'm not sure why I am not being offered -1 with the moneyline having dipped this low. I've gotten it before on prices near -240. But I'll play Leafs -1 priced -150 (it's there). Regulation works too. The Hawks put superstar Connor Bedard on IR Monday and he's everything. Top young blueliner Artyom Levshunov will sit for disciplinary reasons. So yeah I'll do two units at -1 as I struggle to see a Toronto home loss barring Spencer Knight standing on his head for the visitors. Chicago is struggling anyways, especially away at 1-5 in the past six on the road. Good injury news for the Leafs with top goalie Joseph Woll activated off IR. He is 2-0 this month with a 1.20 GAA.
This is already ticking up and if De'Von Achane is ruled out for Miami, it surely will land north of -200. So let's take it now. Achane has been a huge reason the Fins have won four straight, rushing for at least 160 yards as a team in each. Will the Steelers really blow their huge Week 14 win in Baltimore for control of the AFC North by giving this one away? Miami has lost 13 straight games with game-time temperatures under 40 degrees and also 13 in a row on the road vs. teams entering with winning records. Both are the longest active losing streaks in the NFL.
There appears to be a bit of a bug going around the Kings' locker room as they will be without two centers in Quinton Byfield (19 points, +5) and Phillip Danault (five points, +3). The Kings are slumping offensively anyways with three total goals in a two-game skid that both included overtime. It is Stars backup Casey DeSmith, but he has better numbers (2.23 GAA, .920 SV) than No. 1 Jake Oettinger does. Dallas is also getting a bit heathier on the blueline. It has gotten points in their last seven games played vs. Los Angeles at American Airlines Center (6-0-1).
Extremely fair price on the Jets after reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck returned from injury over the weekend and dominated in a win over Washington. Third different city since Thursday for Ottawa, which is down three injured regulars in forwards in Lars Eller and Shane Pinto and blueliner Thomas Chabot. The Jets swept this series last season pretty easily.
I don't get this number even if Zion Williamson returns for the Pels. Just so tired of the Bulls' mediocrity that I'm not even sure I care any longer -- but I still think they are better than New Orleans. And they appeared to blow it yet again in the 2025 draft not taking Derik Queen, who went 13th to NO and having a nice year. Chicago took French forward Noa Essengue with the No. 12 pick and he has played 6 minutes this year and will not again due to injury. Maybe if the Bulls had an owner who actually cared about winning. The Reinsdorf family will never sell as the club is a cash cow. They will dump the White Sox. A start.
Well, Milwaukee chose not to cooperate earlier this afternoon (had every chance to win that game at the end) so hopefully Portland will. This seems a good 4 points high to me. Kent State might be the MAC's best team but plays its first true road game. The Pilots have two good freshmen in guard Joel Foxwell and forward Timo George. Foxwell has already earned two WCC Freshman of the Week awards and leads the WCC in assists per game (6.2) and is third among league freshmen in scoring (13.2). He is the NCAA freshman leader in assists per game. George leads the WCC and ranks fourth nationally in field goal percentage (.708). Portland is 9-2 SU in its past 11 at home.
I'm smashing everything under on Indy this week. Hey, if Philip Rivers can get up off his baby-making couch and light up a terrific defense on the road, I am completely fine losing this. I just can't believe that is a possibility short of some backdoor nonsense. And yes, an offshore book has a prop on Over Rivers' longest completion yardage vs. number of kids (10.5). Also an O/U of how many will be there: 4.5. Not sure how that is graded (major max limit) but I still love it.
Hopefully the Rams beat the daylights out of the Lions as that only helps the Bears, and Matthew Stafford surely will be fired up to face his former club again. But it's just not that easy to score 32 points in an NFL game. Only 25 clubs in history averaged at least that many in a season according to Grok. Or Gronk, whatever. Probably same trustworthiness. The model has Los Angeles at 27. About what I'm thinking. 30 is fine. so is 31. I wouldn't go lower.
I just posted the model sims in my sub-room on Discord and once again it has RJ Harvey quite high up on the anytime TD list -- and this seems like a crazy generous number. Yeah the Packers are pretty good defensively, but Harvey can score as a runner or receiver. He has found paydirt in two straight. Just don't get hurt. Need you next week in the Fantasy playoffs (I got a bye, much to my own surprise).