Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Rafael Devers should make his Giants debut Tuesday. ...
Matt's Past Picks
I happened to be looking at fading Boston as it was in such a major trap spot off a home sweep of the Yankees and then flying across country to Seattle. And then ... shocker. Rafael Devers was traded to the Giants. Weird timing with the Sox playing so well of late but he had been unhappy for a while. Can't imagine this goes over well in the locker room immediately, however. And Alex Bregman remains on the injured list. The usually excellent Logan Gilbert is back from the IL and on the mound for the Mariners.
I want to grab this now for Monday (Why is there no game Sunday? And no hockey either! Seems like a massive fail between the two leagues in a great TV window. Guess I'll watch 60 Minutes or talk to my wife or something. Better get up to speed on Twilight because that's usually the conversation.) before it potentially drops to 34.5. SGA is capable of scoring 50, but he has topped this number just once in the series. I tend to think the Thunder blow the doors off the Pacers in Game 5 so that may mean Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't play 40 minutes like he did Friday when he finished with 35 points. Hook definitely might matter, although our model has SGA at 33.5 points.
If you can get -1, I'd do that. I'm not doing -1.5 and can't say I love F5 -0.5 or any other variations. This is a type of play where I did really well in hockey this year. I.e., I'm confident in the straight up win but think the ML price is too high and simply hope for a two-run/goal victory at -1. The Angels' Jose Soriano is a decent pitcher so some pause, but I'd think a minor sense of urgency for the Yanks off being swept in Boston. At least the bullpen is fully ready tonight. And Giancarlo Stanton is making his season debut. He may well go 0-for-4 with the Golden Sombrero, but the former NL MVP does lengthen the lineup.
Somewhat have to disregard the starting pitchers here because it appears the White Sox might have the edge with recently acquired veteran Aaron Civale (1-2, 4.91 ERA) opposed by struggling Rangers rookie Kumar Rocker (1-4, 8.87 ERA). But there's a reason Rocker, who has been better at home, is a touted prospect -- and the lineups aren't close. Luis Robert is not in the ChiSox lineup and he has finally started to hit some. Evan Carter is back in for Texas after not starting Saturday. Since returning from the injured list June 3, Carter has slashed .407/484/.815.
Bit higher than I'd like, but Detroit is No. 2 in the majors in OPS vs. lefties and 13-4 against them. Cincy southpaw Wade Miley hasn't been very good in either of his two starts this year and also dealing with some off-the-field stuff. End of a six-game trip so a natural bad spot for Cincinnati. The Tigers don't lose many home series (24-10 overall at Comerica Park) and that's on the line today. They will use a bullpen day.
You know this is a "care" game for the Dodgers after getting handled easily last night to fall into a first-place tie with their bitter rivals. Clayton Kershaw isn't going very deep into games at age 37 but is still pretty effective. The Giants are 33-17 vs. righty starters but 8-12 vs. lefties and hitting a scant .219 against them. San Francisco starter Landen Roupp has been generally solid but worse away (4.02 ERA) and hit around a bit last year in his lone career outing vs. L.A. Decent spot for -1 to bring the price way down and risk the push.
Flat-out turned off Game 4 with the Panthers up 3-0. I'm like OK, gonna spend some of that $100 on Arby's -- yes, I have issues and beef and cheddars with Horsie and Arby's sauce will eventually be the end of me physically. And I don't care (well, $68 or so as the Cats were -140ish; feels like the wife purposefully picked a house close to an Arby's and Taco Bell to get rid of me). Can't believe they blew that. I'll just be honest in that I have no idea who wins Saturday but I need a reason not to play the home team. If the Panthers were a bit cheaper at +1, I'd look that way but not doing that at nearly -180.
Not that any Rockies lineups are good, but today's against Atlanta's Spencer Strider is truly rubbish. The law firm of Doyle, Moniak, Ritter, Farmer and Freeman are in spots 5-9. I do this for a living, and I had to go look up where the heck Ritter played college ball I knew so little about him (something called John A. Logan College and then Kentucky). It always irks me when I don't know where a pro athlete went to college for some reason (if did) considering I do this for a living. Sometimes the minutiae is really irritating. So if Strider simply handles the top four in the lineup, not exactly a murderers' row either, he should dominate even if not great yet in 2025.
Again, I hate to double-down on the same game, but this 5.5 is an outlier number among our books, which all have 5s or 4.5s, so gotta do it. That's where we have done well this year -- outlier numbers. Certainly worked last night on these two clubs and there appear to be better starting pitchers tonight (already on Orioles ML) in the Angels' Tyler Anderson (3.99 ERA) and Birds' Tomo "Mr. Roboto" Sugano (3.23). Winds are blowing in a little at Camden Yards with a possibility of rain but seems like they will get it in.
The O's cashed twice for us Friday. It's nice betting them again as they were a cash cow the past few years at Camden Yards but obviously hadn't been much in 2025 until recently. And as I said Friday, I do think they are turning the corner. Probably too late for this year, though. While the rotation is still sorry and should get GM Mike Elias fired, he at least did hit (so far) on Japanese free-agent Tomo Sugano (3.23 ERA). I like to call him "Mr. Roboto" because how can you go wrong with a Styx song? Any 80s/90s band with a random x in their name is obviously awesome.
If you don't think I'm fading the Marlins when their primary pitcher is named Janson Junk, you clearly don't know me. Feels like that journeyman (career 5.84 ERA) is in the wrong profession. Arguably Miami's most important offensive player, if such a thing exists, in leadoff hitter Xavier Edwards is sitting. He's a major base-stealing threat, so that's a nice break for Washington. The Fish also completely blew out their bullpen in last night's win. Guess that's why we get a Junk-baller today ...
Pricy but we were having this discussion in the SportsLine Discord channel, and I said I'm playing Under 18.5 if it flipped from 17.5. And it has. First of all, the Yankees basically deport lefties, ranking first in the majors in OPS by far against them. Second, they just hit Crochet around last Saturday (he went six) at Yankee Stadium. I am a big Crochet guy -- that sounded Mother Goose-ish like Macrame or knitting -- but you just can't let that guy throw too many pitches with his injury history. I'll be pretty surprised if he comes out in T7 barring a no-hitter or the like. Plus, the Sox were off yesterday so the bullpen is fully ready.
I had no plans to double-play this game as I generally don't like putting all my eggs in one basket. But 6? Wouldn't play 5.5, but this feels somewhat safe in terms of a loss. Both teams could have a three-run jack and we might at worst push. "Jane! Stop this crazy thing!" Told my Discord followers I'd work in the Jetsons ... I was more of a Super Friends guy. "Wonder Twin powers: ACTIVATE!" No major winds at Camden Yards.