Obviously limited with what I can do on here, and think this would be another fine spot for -1 or even in this case Snakes not to bat B9 to bring the number down substantially. Maybe -1.5 is fine, but I'm not that huckleberry (RIP Val). I like for this play that the Nats won Friday night because, well, they aren't that good to win again but also used all their key bullpen guys. Not saying they aren't available Saturday, but it doesn't hurt in this regard. Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt has been Pfaabulous at home with a 1.78 ERA.

Again, I have no personal dog in this fight. But I am the biggest-ever Pacers fan in Game 6 simply to stop hearing about the Chalamets, the Jenners, the Stillers (do like Ben and not just because of Severance -- that certainly doesn't hurt, though), the Hargitays and, I mean, Spike Lee is the cherry atop the hate sundae, and such at Knicks home games. WHO. CARES. Guess I could stop watching. Indiana won't want to go back to that nonsense again in Game 7, so I expect basically an elimination game effort from Indy on Saturday, where the most well-known fan's last name probably rhymes with Gellencamp.

Not a huge "ooohh look at that home run" guy. Don't watch the All-Star HR Derby nor bet on it. Boring. Definitely was into dingers in the summer of McGwire vs. Sammy (before he got Michael Jackson weird personally) but now don't much care if someone goes yard. Last night, though, was pretty darn cool with both Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani homering in their first at-bats. Fun game all around. Almost made me forget the Mariners' epic collapse (Zebby!). Winds are blowing out a bit tonight and Judge may well yak another off mediocre Dodgers starter Landon Knack (0-for-2 career off him). But only -175 for no? Have to. Throw up four fingers anytime the dude (abides) is at-bat with first base open.

I'm definitely not a -1.5 guy, but I guess that's really the only option here. I looked at F5 spread but Mets -0.5 there is north of -200, a price that I don't remember seeing before in 2025 on that game prop. It sure looks like one of the biggest pitching mismatches of the season between Antonio Senzatela (1-9, 6.50) and Kodai Senga (0.70 home ERA). But it might also get rained out.

I haven't made too much fun of the White Sox this season because while terrible, they are still warp speed better than the Rockies. But today's Chicago lineup looks horrific. I've followed this team pretty much since I can remember and I have no idea who Vinny Capra is. Well, I have heard of him but why would you pick up a guy off waivers who was 4-for-54 with Milwaukee? Much less start him today -- rookie SS Chase Meidroth has been one of the few bright spots but is sitting. Another promising rookie, Edgar Quero, is too. Baltimore is starting to play a bit better. Dean Kremer has been solid on the mound of late and has a 2.50 ERA at home.

Couldn't believe when I read that Saturday would be the first-ever major tournament matchup between the powerhouses from France and Italy. Not that I'm some soccer historian expert or even Ted Lasso, but still surprising. I somewhat expect a draw and will hope for the win -- six straight UCL finals have featured two goals or fewer ... obviously lower-scoring matches are more likely to draw. Inter's likely starting XI has an average age of 30 years and 4 months; Paris Saint-Germain's is 24 and 7 months. Inter has eight players who featured the last time it was in the UCL final two years ago; PSG has one starter who has played in a Champions League final at any time in his career.

I'll talk about this a bit in Friday's newsletter, and I understand why the Yankees are favored with Max Fried on the mound. He has been awesome. But I'm absolutely taking perhaps my one chance all season to get the Dodgers +1.5 at home. Much less at a pretty nice price.

We all have these rules, betting or otherwise, we live by in life I'm sure. One of mine? Fade/avoid anyone named Zebby. Now, that really hasn't come up too frequently in all my years (there was a clown once ... I'd rather not talk about it), but the planets have aligned Friday in Seattle. The Twins' Zebby Matthews is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in his two 2025 starts. He was not any better as a rookie in 2024. I believe Zebby's future is in fast-food chicken/sauces. Meanwhile, Seattle's Bryan Woo looks like the best young righty in the AL of late and has been practically unhittable at home (0.93 ERA, .188 OBA).

This was north of -200 at a few books early today and I'm not really sure why it dropped as all the Padres regulars are in ... and I'm pretty sure there has not been heavy action on the Pirates. I mean, unless Elon Musk dropped another 500 mil on the Bucs ML; maybe that's why he had a black eye today -- i.e. hits self in face for stupidity, I've definitely done that. In fact, I did it after the Cubs lost 6-2 this afternoon. I need to wear gloves. Yeah, Pirates starter Mitch Keller has been solid but the lineups aren't close. Would really like -1.

Don't feel super strongly but try to have an opinion on Cubs standalone Friday matinees. Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott has been really good this season and just dominated the Cubs last Saturday, allowing a run over 5.2 innings. But that the Cubbies just saw him I only think helps them today. And Abbott's road ERA of 3.00, while still very good, is about two runs higher than at home. Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner all have good splits off him. The Reds are a game under .500 away. The Cubs (18-10 at home) rank No. 2 in the majors in OPS vs. lefties. Pitcher Colin Rea has a 2.51 home ERA. Cincy leading hitter Austin Hays (.303) has landed on the IL.

Edmonton is clearly the better team, but Dallas is playing for its season Thursday and has been much better at home in these playoffs (7-2). And the Oilers have lost top-line winger Zach Hyman for likely the rest of the postseason due to injury suffered in Game 4. That's a substantial loss as not only is Hyman a very good offensive player, he is one of the team's most physical guys. I'd expect the Stars to take advantage Thursday.

Toronto is one of the streakiest teams in the majors and burned us last night in Texas in taking two of three at the Rangers after being swept the series prior in dominating fashion in Tampa. After sweeping San Diego the series prior in dominating fashion. That's what the Jays are this year, super hot and cold. The A's have once in their past 14 games. Journeyman lefty Jacob Lopez has a 5.06 ERA and .400 opponents' batting average on the road.

Both lineups are a bit watered-down in Game 1 of a DH with Ronald Acuna, Drake Baldwin, Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto among those sitting. Atlanta pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver was shelled last time out but otherwise has been terrific. During the day, his ERA is 2.18. Philly's Cristopher Sanchez has a 2.96 ERA during the day. It's not hot in Philadelphia and really no winds.

We played Texas in part for two reasons on Tuesday: Pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and the chance that All-Star shortstop Corey Seager was activated off the IL. Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good as Eovaldi lasted only two innings before leaving with a possible injury and Seager was not activated -- but will be today. Journeyman Tyler Mahle starts on the mound, and he has been incredible overall with a 1.80 ERA and especially at home (4-1, 0.95 ERA). Absolutely won't maintain those numbers all year, but hopefully for one more start. It's the end of a long trip for the Jays, so a natural trap spot. Looks like a bullpen day for them.

Boston used six relievers in last night's 10-inning loss and has dropped four straight, totaling just four runs in those. The team badly misses the injured Alex Bregman. Pitcher Brayan Bello has a 4.22 road ERA and 5.68 during the day overall. Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (5-3, 2.55 ERA) might be the best pitcher dealt at this year's deadline if the Brew Crew aren't in playoff contention. The Yankees are known to covet him. Peralta is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA at home.