Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
As you can see, FanDuel has juiced the over pretty hard but there were 11 goals scored in Game 1 so this seems like a no-brainer -- although I highly doubt we get double-digit goals again. The Oilers are simply an offensive juggernaut on home ice, while LA netminder Cam Talbot has allowed three or more goals in five of his last six games. Apparently he's likely to start again but with a short leash.
What a dominant Game 1 win for Edmonton behind five assists from Connor McDavid and a hat trick from Zach Hyman. When the Oilers are flying around like that, good luck beating them. The Kings may have to bench struggling Cam Talbot for David Rittich in net. The career No. 2 had a fine season but has made only two playoff outings in his career with a 15.17 GAA. Yep, 15.17.
New Orleans nearly pulled off the Game 1 upset despite Brandon Ingram having a horrible game, and CJ McCollum was only 2-for-9 from deep. If both are even a little better here, the Pelicans should not only cover (again) but they might win outright. They have the NBA's second-best road mark and haven't lost B2B away games since January.
This just feels like Dallas is due against an opponent that has owned it this season much like Toronto finally broke through last time out against Boston. The Stars are now 0-4 in the season series vs. the Knights after Jake Oettinger was unusually shaky in Game 1. Already desperation time for Dallas to avoid a 0-2 hole before the series shifts to Sin City. The Stars haven't lost B2B games in nearly six weeks. The Knights already achieved their split goal.
It's knuckleballer Matt Waldron for the Friars and I don't pretend to be expert on aerodynamics, but I'd sure think that wouldn't knuckle near as much in Denver. Here's what former Cy Young winner and knuckleballer RA Dickey said years ago about a lack of movement at Coors Field: "If I throw a mediocre knuckleball in Colorado, it’s going to be a b.p. (batting practice) fastball right down the middle." Well, that's simple to understand. Looks to be a bullpen day for the Rox. Still no Manny Machado for San Diego and No. 1 catcher Luis Campusano is out tonight as well.
Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet was dominant in his first two outings of the season but has been ripped in his past two. Chicago scored five runs last night (and still lost), meaning it probably isn't due to score again now until Saturday. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts vs. the Sox.
Toronto Cuban rookie Yariel Rodriguez has been really good in his two starts but doesn't go very deep and essentially might share time on the mound today with struggling Bowden Francis (2-2, 9.95 ERA) behind him. That Jays bullpen could be down high-leverage guys Jordan Romano, Yimi Garcia and Erik Swanson due to recent usage. Justin Turner and Davis Schneider are out of the lineup. KC's Alec Marsh is 1-0 with a 2.69 ERA in two home starts.
Martin was a breakout star for the Heat in the 2023 East Finals vs. Boston but had only four points in Game 1 of this series with just six shot attempts. Sans Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, the Heat absolutely need Martin doing more offensively to have any remote shot. The SL Model has Martin with 9.5 points and he averaged 10.0 during the regular season. I'll be more than happy simply with 8.
Don't think this is a year where I'll be playing the Cardinals much (or Giants or Rays) and unfortunately did last night as they were blown out. Only reason throwing some down here is the Snakes are sitting three of their best hitters in Lourdes Gurriel, Ketel Marte and Gabriel Moreno in a getaway game. Normally that'd be a total play but I don't like 8 much.
Big news out of Vancouver that blindsided me (and I think most everyone else) or I would have had it in today's premium newsletter that recently went out for subscribers who have signed up: Canucks No. 1 netminder Thatcher Demko reportedly could miss the rest of the series vs. the Preds due to injury. Casey DeSmith had a very solid year as a backup but now we have to back Nashville, which largely dominated the first two periods of Game 1 despite the 4-2 loss. DeSmith has just one game of playoff experience in his career. Simply can't turn down +1.5 in a playoff game even at this price.
A few experts are playing Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases props tonight because he's 4-for-6 with a triple and homer career off Angels starter Griffin Canning -- and that makes total sense, but Henderson doesn't have to get an official total base and can still come around to score. Or just go yard in the top of the first and make us all happy.
Can't remember the last time I turned down playing an Under 6.5 to play an Over 6 but how can anyone trust Avs netminder Alexandar Georgiev the way he has been playing for a few weeks? While I doubt he allows seven himself again as in Game 1, I expect the Jets to get to at least four off him. If so, we surely do no worse than a push. Colorado simply has no other healthy options in net right now.