The Jayhawks have been rolling of late, with 5 straight wins behind a blowout of then-undefeated Iowa State. But they barely held on Saturday against BYU amid a mysterious from start Darryn Peterson. This is a strong bounce-back spot for a Red Raiders club coming off an upset loss at UCF following 5 straight wins.
Last week, the Bills overcame atrocious officiating (the Cooks' catch overturn/0:00 FG attempt could have been an outcome-altering sequence) to beat a Jags team that was arguably playing better than the Broncos were to end the regular season. Buffalo should be able to get back to the run game and also faces a less formidable rushing attack from Denver than it did against Jacksonville. We've seen similar line movement and will again back a Bills team that many observers are underestimating.
This is a value-heavy ML price on the Texans, whose stifling defense could easily lead them to the AFC title game. The Steelers' rollercoaster season ended with a wild and fortunate finish against the rival Ravens, sending their once-iconic coach to the unemployment line, a fate Mike Tomlin might have faced if the roles were reversed. It's fair to say Pittsburgh played slightly above expectation this season, but its season will end in familiar fashion with a seventh consecutive playoff defeat.
The red-hot Jags have become such a trendy wildcard weekend play that now one major book has officially flipped the spread and we'll bite on Buffalo with this move. Although the Bills haven't shown the dominance that made them the pre-season Super Bowl favorite, they still fell just one win short of their over/win total (12.5) and they're far from the only flawed playoff team. With Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson out of the way, Josh Allen and friends need to take advantage and this is a winnable matchup.
The Packers stumbled down the stretch amid injury issues to QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs and top defender Micah Parsons. With the exception of Parsons, who is out for the season, they will be close to full strength for the first time in about a month. The Bears have made a remarkable turnaround in their first year under Ben Johnson, but we believe the postseason experience of Love and friends will make a difference as Green Bay manages a hard-fought victory.
Last week, the Seahawks had a bit of a letdown performance against the desperate Colts in what might have been a look-ahead spot to this game. The Rams recovered from a slow start to topple the Lions, but we expect the roles to be reversed Thursday. Sam Darnold's 4 turnovers were the key factor in a 21-19 loss in their first meeting. We expect an inspired performance from the Seattle side against a Los Angeles team that will be shorthanded without WR Davante Adams.
We've been burned a couple times this years by the Bears via bad beat, including their pick-6 on the final play against Virginia when they appeared to have the cover (+6) locked up. But their road upset of Louisville (+20) shows the ceiling of this team and, if a reasonable version of this clubs shows up Saturday, it should have stubborn but undermanned Stanford outclassed by a decent margin.
Last year, the Bears surged down the stretch to win their final 6 games while looking like one of the better teams in the country in the process. This year's club, felled by a subpar defense, is still seeking to become bowl eligible. But we like this spot for the Bears against an Arizona club in dangerous of a letdown spot off its big road upset of Cincinnati.
We're compelled to take the points in this matchup of erratic ACC clubs battling to become bowl eligible. Neither team is as good nor as bad as it has looked at times. That said, this sets up for a strong Wolfpack performance following their blowout loss at Miami last week.
We expect the talented but erratic Blue Devils to become bowl eligible Saturday at the expense of a Virginia club that has performed above expectation but has gotten plenty of breaks along the way. The Cavaliers fell to a mediocre Wake Forest team last week and we see another loss coming by a TD+ against Duke.
The Wolf Pack put up a strong defensive effort in their last outing, but couldn't overcome a five-turnover outing from its stagnant offense. The Aggies allow their share of offensive production but they also score at a decent clip and we can't see Nevada keeping pace.
The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, so it’s no surprised that they are favored against reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills, the pre-season Super Bowl favorites who have had an uneven campaign thus far. The Bills looked much improved coming off their bye week, even if it was against dreadful backup QB Andy Dalton and the middling Carolina Panthers. Although we’re all aware of Mahomes’ hold over Allen in the postseason, the Bills are 4-1 behind Allen in regular-season matchups against the Chiefs. We’ll take the points, which could come into play here, and of course would find greater value if a full +3 becomes available.
Many fantasy football players were surprised to see the veteran TE emerge as a high-volume target early in the season. But this was no accident. The Saints rewarded Juwan Johnson, who emerged as a primary target late last year, with a 3-year, $30 million extension. He is now paired with Tyler Shough, with whom he played one collegiate season at Oregon. They were reported to have a strong connection during training camp, and there's little doubt the untested rookie in his first start will be relying upon the 6-4 Johnson as a safety net for short, easy completions. We love all the Juwan Johnson overs Sunday, but the receptions are the safest bet. He could have this by halftime.
Last week, Ole Miss racked up more than 400 yards of total offense and 34 points against what once appeared to be an invincible Oklahoma defense. Meanwhile, the Vols racked up 56 points and 5004 yards of offense against Kentucky. Look for their red-hot offense to keep rolling and, as a bonus, coach Josh Heupel's motivation factor facing his alma mater should ensure a focused performance from the Tennessee side.
If you've watch the Seminoles play lately, you'd likely agree they don't deserve to be double-digit favorites against any opponent with a pulse. There's a decent chance this FUS team has quit on coach Mike Norvell and that's bad news against an upstart Wake Forest club coming off a big win over SMU.