Larry's Picks (9 Live)
The Eagles didn't need to throw to beat the Raiders, and A.J. Brown ended up with two catches for 41 yards and a score. In the previous four games, Brown drew 46 targets and cleared 100 receiving yards three times. This is a dynamite matchup for Brown as the Commanders play Cover 3 and Cover 1 more than half the time. Look for Washington's offense, led by strong backup Marcus Mariota, to do a lot more than the Raiders and force Philly to be more aggressive.
Terry McLaurin has been a far more efficient player with Marcus Mariota. While the Commanders would love to lean on their run game, they'll need to throw to keep up with Philly. And McLaurin has the best matchup of any Washington receiver. Weather won't be a factor. Look for McLaurin to soak up targets and clear this relatively modest number.
Dillon Brooks got ejected at the end of Sunday's loss to the Lakers. Look for him to be extremely focused Thursday against Golden State. His scoring and rebounding usually go up at home, where he averages 25.2 points and 3.4 rebounds. The Warriors have given up 136 and 127 points the past two games, and we have a total in the low 230s.
Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori has played 64 percent of his snaps in the box the past four weeks. He's recorded six-plus tackles in five of his last seven games, the misses coming when Minnesota and these same Rams only ran 50 offensive plays apiece. The Rams are usually a great matchup for opposing safeties; they average 61.8 plays. With Emmanwori expected to help out on Puka Nacua, I bet the rookie to record at least six combined stops.
Colby Parkinson has played 47 percent of the snaps this season. But with Davante Adams off the field, Parkinson's usage goes up. Last Sunday vs. Detroit, Parkinson was on the field for 81 percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks without Adams, per Sharp Football. Parkinson has a 23 percent target share without Adams the past four games. The Seahawks have an elite defense, but covering tight ends is one vulnerability. They allowed Kyle Pitts (90 yards), TJ Hockenson (59), Trey McBride twice (127, 52), Gunnar Helm (51), Chig Okonkwo (40), Zach Ertz (46), Dalton Schultz (98), Cade Otton (81) and Juwan Johnson (51) to clear this prop total. The Rams often line up three tight ends, especially without Adams, but Parkinson gets most of the targets.
Rashid Shaheed has an explosive reception in each of the past two games. He’s gotten acclimated to Seattle’s offense, drawing 12 targets the past two weeks. He also had a long catch in the first meeting with the Rams, who are susceptible to outside receivers. In what should be a close game, I bet Shaheed to make at least one big play.