Larry's Picks (5 Live)
Dillon Brooks got ejected at the end of Sunday's loss to the Lakers. Look for him to be extremely focused Thursday against Golden State. His scoring and rebounding usually go up at home, where he averages 25.2 points and 3.4 rebounds. The Warriors have given up 136 and 127 points the past two games, and we have a total in the low 230s.
Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori has played 64 percent of his snaps in the box the past four weeks. He's recorded six-plus tackles in five of his last seven games, the misses coming when Minnesota and these same Rams only ran 50 offensive plays apiece. The Rams are usually a great matchup for opposing safeties; they average 61.8 plays. With Emmanwori expected to help out on Puka Nacua, I bet the rookie to record at least six combined stops.
Colby Parkinson has played 47 percent of the snaps this season. But with Davante Adams off the field, Parkinson's usage goes up. Last Sunday vs. Detroit, Parkinson was on the field for 81 percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks without Adams, per Sharp Football. Parkinson has a 23 percent target share without Adams the past four games. The Seahawks have an elite defense, but covering tight ends is one vulnerability. They allowed Kyle Pitts (90 yards), TJ Hockenson (59), Trey McBride twice (127, 52), Gunnar Helm (51), Chig Okonkwo (40), Zach Ertz (46), Dalton Schultz (98), Cade Otton (81) and Juwan Johnson (51) to clear this prop total. The Rams often line up three tight ends, especially without Adams, but Parkinson gets most of the targets.
Rashid Shaheed has an explosive reception in each of the past two games. He’s gotten acclimated to Seattle’s offense, drawing 12 targets the past two weeks. He also had a long catch in the first meeting with the Rams, who are susceptible to outside receivers. In what should be a close game, I bet Shaheed to make at least one big play.
Jaden McDaniels has poured in 21 and 17 points the last two games without Anthony Edwards (foot) in the lineup. Edwards is officially questionable; he did individual drills Tuesday but was not a full participant in practice. Minnesota has OKC on deck Friday, a game it will definitely need Ant to play in. Even if Edwards plays Wednesday against Memphis, McDaniels could very well score 16 points. He's averaging 17.0 points at home on 12.7 shots per game. In six games without Edwards, McDaniels is averaging 21.5 points.
Greg McDermott is frustrated with his team and I bet on that frustration to continue in Cincinnati. The Bluejays have been blown out in each of their two true road games. Over the past three games, Creighton has allowed opponents to shoot 43.1 percent from beyond the arc. Richard Pitino has a slew of good shooters ready to take advantage of Creighton's lack of connected defenders. I would play this up to -4.
Jalen Brunson has scored 30-plus points in four straight games, including a 40-point outburst in the NBA Cup semifinals. He has played 39 minutes in each of the last two rounds, and that should be his floor Tuesday in the final. Miles McBride and Landry Shamet remain sidelined; I don't expect Mike Brown to trust Jordan Clarkson and Tyler Kolek with big minutes. Look for Brunson, shooting 50.4 percent over his last 12 games, to put up at least 30 in this spotlight game.
The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most yards to slot receivers, putting Malik Washington in a nice spot Monday night. He has multiple catches in all but one game and is the only Miami wideout besides Jaylen Waddle receiving significant targets. Look for Washington to clear this relatively low number for the sixth time in the past eight games.
Kenneth Gainwell has 25-plus receiving yards in four straight games. With Miami’s tough run defense, look for Aaron Rodgers to keep using his running backs in the passing game. I would play this up to 25.5.
The Dolphins have found a successful formula, using all three of their talented running backs. Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 23 or fewer passes in four straight games, and he has stayed Under this prop total in six of his last seven. Miami plays at the third-slowest pace, while the Steelers play at the 10th-slowest. It will be bitter cold, though not extremely windy. I like Miami to be very competitive and don't believe Tagovailoa will be forced into a pass-heavy script.