Larry's Picks (3 Live)
This is a tough spot for Geno Smith to make his return. The Texans allow 166.7 passing yards per game at home, and that includes some much tougher matchups than this one. Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller isn't coming back this week, so Smith will be under intense pressure from Houston's pass rush. In addition, elite Texans corner Derek Stingley has a chance to play.
The Texans have won six straight, covering five of those. In their current four-game ATS win streak, the Texans covered by a total of 41 points. Even if Geno Smith returns from his multiple injuries, this is a brutal spot against an elite Houston defense on the road. Houston's offense has improved lately as CJ Stroud increasingly attacks the middle of the field. That should again prove effective against the reeling Raiders.
DK Metcalf has caught 10 passes for 203 yards over the past two games, including receptions of 52 and 28. I bet Metcalf to exceed his longest reception prop for the third straight week against a beaten-up Lions secondary that's surrendering a ton of big plays. With the Steelers likely playing from behind, Aaron Rodgers should target Metcalf repeatedly.
Initially I leaned toward the Broncos, who have yet to lose a home game. But this spread has gone too far. Jacksonville's offense has been completely different since Jakobi Meyers arrived, Brenton Strange returned and Brian Thomas Jr. got healthy. The Jags have won and covered five straight and are capable of getting the backdoor cover even if they fall down 10.
Kirk Cousins had extra rest entering Week 16, which is important at his age. He's facing a Cardinals team that's given up 13 passing touchdowns in the past five games. And Cousins is coming off a vintage performance at Tampa Bay where he threw for three scores. I bet Cousins at plus-money to throw for two more Sunday.
The Cardinals allow the fifth-most explosive rushes, which sets up Bijan Robinson for a big game. He didn't clear this prop total in the previous two games, but exceeded it in three straight before that. Arizona has given up 5.1 yards per carry over its last three games and has allowed three runnings backs to clear this number in the last two games (Jawhar Jordan, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum).
Drake London is back for the Falcons, a huge boost to the entire offense. Atlanta is facing a reeling Arizona defense that has given up 85 points the past two weeks. Look for Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson to play strong games indoors as Atlanta, on extra rest, wins its second straight.
The Dolphins made the right move in benching Tua Tagovailoa, and they could get a spark from Quinn Ewers. Cincinnati will bounce back offensively after being shut out, but this is too many points for the NFL’s worst defense to lay on the road. Look for De’Von Achane to have a huge day as the hosts cover.
This is a much different Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes and several other starters, including Rashee Rice and Trent McDuffie. The Titans have made strides offensively, scoring 31 and 24 points the past two weeks while getting huge contributions from Tony Pollard. Look for Cam Ward to play at least as well as Gardner Minshew in a game that goes down to the wire.
With Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator, the Vikings are 5-0 SU and 3-0-2 ATS against rookie quarterbacks. Minnesota leads the NFL in pressure rate. Jaxson Dart hasn’t been the same player since returning from his concussion, and he has depleted skill talent around him. The Giants remain incapable of stopping the run; that should help J.J. McCarthy deliver his third straight solid performance.
Three of the Saints' top five players in targets drawn won't be on the field Sunday (Rashid Shaheed, Devaugh Vele, Alvin Kamara). That leaves Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson to soak up most of the targets in an appetizing matchup. Olave has 78 targets in seven home games. He should feast on a Jets defense that just gave up 330 passing yards in Jacksonville.
When the Saints get anywhere near the end zone, Tyler Shough looks for Chris Olave. New Orleans' No. 1 receiver has scored three times in the past five games and now faces a Jets defense that just gave up five touchdown passes in Jacksonville. I love the payout on Olave to score and would play this down to +160.