Daniel's Picks (1 Live)
Mayfield is over this rushing yards mark in 7/13 games this season, and may be forced to take off in this matchup. Atlanta’s defense has ranked top-10 in pressure rate all season, and could give a banged up Bucs O-line problems. Mayfield has regressed as a passer since his elite play to start the season, with the 2nd lowest EPA per play among QBs since Week 7. He has dealt with injuries to himself and his WRs, but remains a mentally tough QB who scrambles effectively. The Falcons have a talented secondary, so I envision Mayfield using his legs to pick up some key first downs in this game.
Both teams come into this short week off ugly losses. I don’t expect this to be a very exciting game. Tampa Bay lost their RG Ben Bredeson to injury, and TE Cade Otton’s status is ‘doubtful.’ The Falcons remain without WR1 Drake London, which really hinders this offense with Kirk Cousins under center. Both defenses take away what the opposing offenses do well. The Bucs are a top-tier run-stuffing unit, while the Falcons secondary limits explosive pass plays. Bucs WRs Mike Evans & Jalen McMillan were activated from the IR this week, but their action may be limited. The field at Raymond James Stadium got torn up in the rain last week, so beware of the turf monster in this one.
Herbert is currently 'questionable' to play as he deals with a fractured left hand, but was able to finish last week's game after sustaining the injury. He's a tough QB that's played hurt many times throughout his career. Herbert is likely going to have to take snaps out of the shotgun formation, and the Eagles pass rush is getting back to its ways since getting back Nolan Smith Jr. and acquiring LB Jaelan Phillips. The Chargers O-line has been in shambles since losing stud LT Joe Alt, so Herbert may be forced to take off. He is over this rushing yards mark in 9/12 games this season. I don't think a hand injury will stop Herbert from using his legs when he needs to.
Brown has kicked and screamed about his dismay with the Eagles offense and his role in it, but he's finally gotten his way. Over the past 3 games, Brown has 25 receptions on 33 targets for 292 yards & 3 TDs. He now has 5+ catches in 7/11 games he's played in this season. The Chargers play a heavy rate of zone coverage, so Brown should have opportunities to sit down in soft spots. The Eagles have lost consecutive games, and desperately need to find some consistency in their offense. I expect Brown to get plenty of target share in Primetime.
No surprise here. Another Primetime under. Both of these offenses have struggled without their star OLs Lane Johnson & Joe Alt. The Chargers play the 3rd highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL, which is an effective scheme against Jalen Hurts. Their defense will force him to look underneath, or to beat them on the ground. The Eagles have an elite secondary, and Justin Herbert is nursing a fractured hand that could force the Chargers to go run-heavy. The Eagles play a heavy rate of man coverage, which Herbert sees his metrics drop against. This game is shaping up to be one decided by the defenses.
Since the Chiefs bye week, Hunt has 11+ rush attempts in 4 straight games and is over this mark in 3 straight. The Texans have the #1 ranked pass defense DVOA, and have an excellent pass rush. The Chiefs will need to balance their offense, and could look to play conservative with a lead in a game they must have. Isiah Pacheco got just 3 carries last week. Hunt is the lead back, and the goal line back. I like him to go over his rush attempts and rushing yards, but prefer the attempts at plus odds.
Two top-tier defenses will square off in Primetime. These are two of the best teams to the under in the league (Texans 9-3, Chiefs 8-4). Despite more than 70% of the public bets on the Over, this total isn’t budging. The Texans are the league’s best defense, and Steve Spagnuolo & the Chiefs are familiar with C.J Stroud. Since 2023, Kansas City is 17-6 to the under at home. Final score prediction Chiefs win 23-16.
Kansas City has beaten Houston in 5 straight meetings, and held C.J Stroud and the Texans offense to fewer than 20 points in their last two. This will be the Texans 2nd straight road game, and they’ll face a tough test in Arrowhead against a desperate KC team. The Chiefs injured O-line is concerning against this vaunted Texans pass rush, but I trust Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense to give C.J Stroud fits and force mistakes. Chiefs find a way on Sunday night.
With Bears WR1 Rome Odunze ruled out, Burden should continue to see his usage increase. The promising rookie has 5+ targets in 3 straight games, and could be a useful gadget style weapon against a tough Packers defense. If the +6.5 Bears find themselves trailing in this game and can’t go as run-heavy, Burden could see 5-7 targets. I like him to record that 4th catch.
The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (51), while this putrid Raiders offensive line has allowed the second most sacks (46). I am going with 1U plays on both Nik Bonnito and Zach Allen to record sacks, who are each top-10 in QB pressures. These teams played a month ago, and each of these players recorded 1+ sacks in a game where Geno Smith was taken down 6 times. He’s been sacked 25 times over the past 4 games. The Raiders O-line is cooked.
The Raiders O-line has been getting torched. Allen is tied for the 3rd most QB pressures in the NFL. Bet on Allen, Bonnito, and Jonathan Cooper sacks and I imagine 2/3 will hit for profit.
In Burrow’s first start back from injury he got right to gunslinging, throwing 24/46 against the Ravens in an upset victory. Burrow will now go head-to-head with Josh Allen, and the total for this game sits at 53.5 so we can expect offense. Burrow will also get back his WR2 Tee Higgins. Last season, Burrow went over this pass attempts total in 12/17 games. The Bengals need to run the table to keep their season alive, and it’s on their star QB to find a way. I like Burrow for 40+ attempts today.
Back to my favorite pastime, fading Tua. Tagovailoa is under this mark in 9/12 games this season, and is averaging just 190 pass yards per game. He has thrown 26 or fewer pass attempts in 5 of his last 6 games. The Dolphins have opted to go run-heavy with De'Von Achane, which I expect plenty more of on the road in New York. This should be an ugly AFC East rivalry in which the best game manager wins.
Well here goes nothing, we're betting the Jets in back-to-back weeks. But again, I'm not sure they should be catching a FG on the spread at home. With Tyrod Taylor at QB, the Jets actually have some balance to their offense and can move the ball downfield. Taylor is 37-21-4 ATS for his career, and has been a great bet as an underdog. The Dolphins beat the hapless Saints last week, but nearly allowed an improbable comeback. Tua Tagovailoa was an ugly 12/23 for 157 yards, 0 TD/1 INT. On the road, Tagovailoa is 15-21 SU in his career. The Jets special teams has been fantastic this season, and could be the difference in a game between two bad teams.