Daniel's Picks (1 Live)
Dolphins RB1 De'Von Achane has cleared his injury designation, and looks like he's good to go for MNF. After he hurt his ribs last week against the Jets, Miami put their trust in RB2 Jaylen Wright. Wright got 24 carries for 100+ rush yards and 3 targets, and was on the field for significantly more snaps than Miami's other RB Ollie Gordon. The Dolphins have a crowded running back room, but Wright may have solidified his place in it last week. If there is any concern about Achane's injury, Wright should be in line for 5-7 carries. Wright has 3 games with 5+ carries this season, and had 17 or more yards in each of them.
Steelers RB1 Jaylen Warren is dealing with an illness ahead of this game, which could help Gainwell continue getting volume. Gainwell has been used effectively in the short area passing game, and is over this receiving yards mark in 5 of his last 6 games. Miami’s defense is quietly a Top-10 run stuffing unit since Week 10, so Pittsburgh could look to beat them with screens against stacked boxes. Gainwell has 7 games this season with 5+ targets, and I like him to get involved in Primetime with concerns about Warren’s status.
The Dolphins are 5-1 in their last 6 games, and have found their offensive identity behind a successful rush attack. The Steelers have been getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks, allowing 249 rushing yards to the Bills and 217 to the Ravens. Miami have also quietly been playing much better defense, now ranking 8th in defensive rush DVOA. Pittsburgh will probably be a popular pick coming off their upset win over the Ravens, but this feels like a let down spot. I like the Dolphins to keep it within a FG.
I took the Dolphins to cover the +3.5 spread, and I'm playing a half unit on the ML as well. Steelers star DE T.J Watt suffered a scary collapsed lung injury, and is recovering at home after receiving treatment. Good news that Watt is going to be ok, but bad news for Pittsburgh with him out of the lineup. Since 2017, Watt has missed 11 games... the Steelers are 1-10 SU without him. That (along with Miami playing much better on both sides of the ball over the past month) is my handicap.
It’s gonna take some courage to back J.J McCarthy against an improving Dallas defense, but I still think this spread is too wide. The Cowboys have only covered this margin against 3 teams this season- Jets, Commanders, Raiders. Minnesota finally have a healthy offensive line, and showed some life last week in an impressive shutout win. Dallas allows the most passing yards per game (255) to opposing QBs, so Justin Jefferson might be trading big plays back and forth with Dallas’ star WR duo. Vikings DC Brian Flores has the defense playing well over the last month. I think the Vikings can hang around in this game.
Johnson is over this receiving yards mark in 4 straight games, and 6 out of the last 7. Since taking over as the Saints starting QB Tyler Shough has looked Johnson’s way frequently, targeting him 28 times in his 5 starts. These teams played a month ago, and Johnson had 4 catches on 4 targets for 92 yards and a TD. Carolina has struggled against opposing TEs, and I expect Johnson to take advantage of them again.
Nacua has a fantastic matchup against a man coverage-heavy Lions defense. Detroit’s secondary has been decimated by injury. CB Terrion Arnold and SS Brian Branch are both on IR, and FS Kerby Joseph and his backup have been ruled out. Nacua had 8+ receptions in 5 straight weeks to start the season, but hasn’t cleared this line since then. He’s seen 9+ targets in 8 games this season, and with Davante Adams playing a bit banged up, I see Nacua getting heavy target share here. Puka goes off today.
The Broncos have walked the tightrope in many of their wins this season, often times against far lesser teams. Now Bo Nix will have to face a stout Green Bay defense that play heavy zone coverage, which his numbers drop off against. Meanwhile, Jordan Love thrives against man coverage which the Broncos play more than any team in the NFL. Green Bay will get back WR Jayden Reed, and it looks like RB Josh Jacobs will be good to go. The Packers have momentum after an emotional win over Chicago last week, and I think they keep it rolling in Denver.
Typically in a cold and windy game I’d be playing the under, but these defenses have been atrocious. The Giants and Commanders each rank bottom-five in the league in defensive EPA per play & DVOA. New York can’t stop anybody on the ground (or through the air for that matter), and Washington has given up 25+ points to 7 of the last 8 teams they’ve faced (with the one exception being the Dolphins in Madrid). The east coast is getting some snow this morning, and you know we love a “Snowver.”
The Bills head to Foxborough as slight road favorites, which is a spot Josh Allen has thrived in. Allen is 30-14-2 ATS when playing as an underdog or a favorite of less than a FG in his career, and is 18-8-2 ATS on the road in that spot as well. The Patriots have been very impressive, but they have faced an easy schedule and feel due for regression. Since losing DL Milton Williams their run defense has struggled, and their offensive line is still shaky since losing LT Will Campbell. Last time these teams played the Bills had three turnovers, played terribly… and still barely lost the game. Buffalo gets their payback in the rematch.
The Chargers offensive has been in shambles without their star LT Joe Alt. In recent weeks this O-line allowed Herbert to be sacked 6 times by the Titans, 5 by the Steelers and 7 by the Eagles last week in a game where Herbert was running for his life. Now they will face a Chiefs defensive line that gets good pressure, in the Kansas City cold on the road. Karlaftis has recorded a sack in 7/13 games this season. Karlaftis will be the beneficiary of fellow DE Chris Jones’ pressure, and gang up with a teammate to record half a sack and cash this.
Bettors might be down on Rice after his uncharacteristic drops in KC’s ugly loss to the Texans last week. He’ll get a great matchup to bounce back in here against a Chargers defense that plays a heavy rate of zone coverage. Rice absolutely destroys zone, and the Chiefs remain in desperation mode so Mahomes will be slinging. Rice has seen 8+ targets in 6/7 games he’s played in, and has 32 targets over the last 3. He should see plenty of volume against this defensive scheme and soar over this receiving yards number.
The Chiefs have been one of the best “under” teams over the past few seasons. This year KC are 9-4 to the under, and 6-1 to the under at home in Arrowhead. Both of these teams have injured and unreliable offensive lines. The Chiefs are in desperation mode, and must rely on their defense down the stretch. The Chargers zone-heavy scheme should help limit explosive plays, and keep this game under the key number of 41. Final score prediction 23-16.
Tee Higgins has been ruled out of this game, which should almost guarantee Chase his 10-15 targets. These teams played two weeks ago, and Chase smoked the Ravens for 7 receptions and 100 receiving yards on 14 targets. He destroyed Baltimore for massive games last season as well. The Ravens secondary let D.K Metcalf go off for 148 receiving yards last week. Chase can easily burn them for 100+, so I’m willing to play the over even at this big number.