The Tampa Bay Lightning return home after two one-goal losses while getting out-shot in both games. The Panthers are now 4-1 vs. Tampa Bay this season. I have to believe that the Lightning will play one of their best games, knowing they can’t go down 3-0 and expect to win the series. Tampa Bay has a championship pedigree, and it should be on full display at Amalie Arena.

This will be the Cavs' first road game in just over two weeks, and they have lost 8 of their past ten games away from home. We all know that role players perform better at home, and the Magic went 29-12 at Kia Center. Their road/home splits are very telling, as they rank fifth in point differential at home (+7.8) compared to -3.8 in away games. The sold-out crowd of 18,846 will be fired up for Orlando's first home playoff game since 2019. Play the Magic in this must win game!

Cal Raleigh is batting .313 with two home runs in 16 career at-bats against Dunning. Dunning's FIP is 6.18, xERA is 6.81, and his hard-hit rate is 51.7%, which ranks as the 6th worst among all starting pitchers with at least three starts according to Baseball Savant. This is not good in a hitters' park like Global Life Field. The Rangers' available bullpen has an ERA of 5.66. You can find +300 at most books!

This is a rematch of last year's playoffs' first round, where the LA Kings won 4-3 in OT at Edmonton. In that contest, the Oilers were -220, but they have improved their roster and now have a more balanced and efficient team. The Oilers learned a lot from that loss and eventually won the series in six games. They are currently ranked fifth in shots against and have a +461 shot differential. Last season, they were ranked 18th in shots against with a +182 shot differential. Edmonton has four players (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Bouchard) ranked in the top 46 in points this season. Play Edmonton!

In the past ten games, Willy Adames has been a machine, securing at least one hit in 8 of those matchups. If we zoom in even further, he's been averaging a jaw-dropping 1.8 hits per game over the last five games, hitting over 0.5 hits in each. Pirates' starter Jared Jones has issued just two walks in 23 innings, so Adames will get something to hit. The Pirates available bullpen has an ERA of 4.98. Willy is slated to bat third, so getting at least one hit in at least four plate appearances seems likely. This line should be closer to -180.

Tyrese Haliburton has sailed over this number in all five games against the Milwaukee Bucks this season, scoring 29, 27, 22, 26, and 31 points, respectively. Even with Giannis in the lineup, he managed to achieve this feat, but now that Giannis is listed as doubtful, there will be less rim protection. It's reasonable to expect another big scoring output from Haliburton in the first postseason game of his career.

The LA Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the hill. On the surface, he’s been excellent so far this season, with an ERA of 1.47. However, his FIP is 4.29, indicating how lucky the southpaw has been. Nick Lodolo will make his second season start after striking out ten batters in 5.2 innings while allowing no earned runs. Soft tossers with a low strikeout rate (Anderson) typically struggle at Great American Ballpark, so I like the matchup for the home team. The Reds managed just one hit in Wednesday’s loss and now return home looking to break out.

In his last ten games, he has scored a lot, with an average of 24.7 points, exceeding the 24.5 mark in seven contests. Moreover, Zion's resilience after subpar games (14 points) speaks volumes about his competitive spirit. Lately, he's 3-0 in bouncing back with a vengeance after failing to hit the 24.5-point threshold, suggesting that any dip is merely calm before another scoring storm. Zion should have a big scoring game against Anthony Davis, who is far from 100% healthy.

After playing multiple consecutive games outside, the Chicago Cubs will play their first road game in a true indoor stadium. The team is sending rookie Ben Brown to the bump, with a ground-ball rate of 35.7%, a 64.3% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 96.3 MPH, ranking last in baseball. Brown's pitching style may not be effective in Arizona, as he only uses two pitches. Merrill Kelly induces ground balls 47.1% of the time, allowing a 25.5% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 86.8 MPH. He has consistently performed better in games played at Chase Field than away games.

I love betting on winning home teams that lost by ten or more runs in their previous game. The Baltimore Orioles have won three out of four games this season after a defeat, and Dean Kremer has a perfect record of 3-0 after a loss dating back to the last season. Kremer has been impressive, as he has managed to limit the opposition's batting average to .170. DL Hall last pitched seven days ago and might be too eager to face his former team. Hall's numbers don't look great, with a 4.82 ERA and 4.97 FIP, suggesting he's still trying to figure things out. Additionally, his .350 batting average against is concerning. I like the Orioles in this spot!

This line opened at -150 and has since dropped on news that Connor McDavid might be out. The Oilers have a very deep team, with three other players (Draisaitl, Hyman, and Bouchard) ranked in the top 46 in points per game. Vegas has no players in the top 50 and is dealing with numerous injuries. The Golden Knights are just 10-11 since Marc Stone (53 points in 56 games) was injured on Feb. 20th. Edmonton is ranked third in shots against and has a +414 shot differential, while Vegas is ranked 17th in shots against with a +35 shot differential. The Oilers are ranked fifth in Face-off win percentage, while Vegas is ranked 19th. Edmonton is determined to surpass Vancouver for top seed.

Juan Soto has exceeded this number in four consecutive games and seven of his past 10. The New York Yankees are ranked 10th in OPS against left-handed starters, while the Miami Marlins bullpen has an ERA of 5.50 so far this season. Soto hit a home run while going 3-for-5 against Ryan Weathers in his career. I also like Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at -120 odds. Calm winds with higher humidity suggest that runs will be scored.

With a Carolina Hurricanes victory in regulation, they will tie with the Boston Bruins at 107 points for the second seed in the East. Carolina is seeking revenge for their 4-1 loss (3-1 plus an empty net goal) on April 4th in Carolina. The Hurricanes are ranked first in the league in shots against and own a shot differential of +584, while Boston is ranked 23rd in shots against with a -107 shot differential. The Bruins have committed the 11th most penalty minutes (758), while Carolina is ranked 23rd (669). The Hurricanes are ranked sixth in Face-off win percentage, while the Bruins are ranked 21st. Carolina has more efficient special teams and has not lost back-to-back games against Boston since 2022.

Og Anunody has exceeded this number in eight of his past ten games, averaging 14.1 points. When Bojan Bogdanovic (questionable) misses a game, Anunody surpasses 11.5 points in eight of 10 and averages 17.1 points per game. The Milwaukee Bucks are ranked 22nd (116.8) in points allowed, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is iffy to play with hamstring tightness. My model has the Knicks' small forward reaching 15 points with increased minutes!

The Edmonton Oilers are returning home after getting blanked 5-0 by the Dallas Stars on Wednesday. This season, the Oilers are 2-0 after getting shut out and have not lost three games in a row since February 24th. The last five meetings have been decided in overtime, with the Colorado Avalanche winning four out of five. Edmonton is ranked third in shots against, while Colorado is ranked 12th. Edmonton is also ranked fifth in face-off win percentage, while the Avalanche are ranked 23rd. Despite being out-shot 46-36, Colorado won 5-2 in Minnesota yesterday. I like the home team in this statement game!