Jeff's Picks (1 Live)
With fewer than 62 possessions projected, points will be scarce and margins tight. A 10.5-point spread in a slow game is like 14 in a fast-paced one. Northern Iowa is the nation’s best at defending the perimeter, allowing just 6.3 opponent three-pointers per game. St. John’s depends on offensive rhythm and spacing, but UNI’s defense and tempo will force a half-court battle. While UNI’s overall offense ranks just 153rd in AdjO, the numbers are skewed by their slow pace. In the half-court, UNI is highly efficient—consistently generating high-quality shots and maintaining a strong points-per-possession rate. The Red Storm struggles to shoot the basketball at a high level and must travel cross-country after an exhausting Big East Title run. My model made the favorite -8.6 points.
Saint Mary’s is the more talented team and deserves to be a larger favorite. Their strong defense and elite rebounding give them one of the nation’s best Defensive Rebounding Percentages, limiting opponents’ second-chance points. Texas A&M relies on offensive rebounds, but that edge will likely disappear. They also foul often, benefiting Saint Mary’s, the nation’s top free-throw shooting team (81.1%). The Gaels played a much tougher non-conference schedule. Saint Mary’s went 2-1 against top-12 opponents, while Texas A&M went 0-2. Notably, Texas A&M struggled against taller teams, going just 1-5 versus opponents averaging 6’7” or taller, whereas Saint Mary’s excelled against shorter teams, posting a 22-1 record against squads with an average height of 6’5” or less. This matchup plays directly into Saint Mary’s strengths.
The Carolina Hurricanes lead the league in shot differential (+541) and boast the NHL’s best shots against metric. They also have a +57 high-danger differential. The Columbus Blue Jackets rank 25th in shots against, with a +31 shot differential and a +23 high-danger mark. Both teams will play with two days' rest. Carolina is 6-3 in such situations, averaging 3.7 goals for and 2.8 goals against. Columbus is 4-7, averaging 2.2 goals for and 3.5 goals against. The Blue Jackets have gone to overtime in six of their last ten games, winning just two. The Hurricanes are 17–6–1 in games where they score at least one power-play goal, and 3–0 when coming off two or more games without a power-play tally.
Cornell scores quickly but lacks defense, ranking last in the Ivy League for points allowed (83.2) and near the bottom nationally in Defensive eFG% (55.6%). Yale is built to exploit this, with a strong Offensive eFG% (56.1%, 25th nationally), low turnover rate (14.2%), and dominance on the offensive glass (32.8% ORB%). Cornell’s inability to end defensive possessions (29.9% allowed) further tilts the matchup toward Yale, whose roster averages two inches taller than Cornell. The teams split their season series, each winning at home: Yale dominated the first matchup 102-68, while Cornell narrowly won the rematch 72-69 by hitting 14 threes. Yale gets revenge at Newman Arena. Lay the favorite.
Dallas is 2-0 against Edmonton this season, including an 8-3 rout in Edmonton, during which they scored three power-play goals. The Stars avenged last season’s playoff elimination by Edmonton. Now, it’s the Oilers’ turn to respond. Dallas will be without Roope Hintz (44 points in 53 games) and Mikko Rantanen (69 points in 54 games), both of whom were key contributors in the previous wins. Surprisingly, Dallas ranks 28th in shots on goal and has a -34 shot differential. The Oilers are 6th in shots on goal with a +164 shot differential, and rank 4th in high-danger scoring chances. Edmonton is in a tight playoff race, currently sitting sixth (tied) in the Western Conference and needing key victories to solidify its postseason position.
USC’s primary vulnerability is turnovers, but Washington’s passive defense ranks just 326th nationally in forced turnover percentage. The Trojans have proven resilient in tight games, posting a 9-4 record in contests decided by six points or fewer, while Washington is just 1-6. Neither team excels from three-point range, but USC’s perimeter defense is among the nation’s best. Washington has beaten USC twice this season, including a commanding 91-72 victory on March 4, when the Huskies shot 48% compared to USC’s 38%. The Trojans have dropped seven straight games and are 0-6 against the spread in their last six outings. Despite enduring injuries all season, this could be an ideal scenario for USC to finally cover. They will be extremely motivated in this spot.
The Ottawa Senators continue their quest for a playoff spot, aiming to win back-to-back games for the first time since early February. Ottawa is ranked 2nd in shots against and owns a +254 shot differential, including a +32 advantage in high-danger chances. In contrast, Seattle is ranked 22nd in shots against with a -253 shot differential and a -36 mark in high-danger chances. Puck possession also favors the Senators, who rank 3rd, while Seattle sits at 25th. Teams with a +200 or better shot differential are 6-0 this season against opponents with a -200 or worse shot differential. Looking at the past decade, teams with a +30 or higher high-danger differential against teams with a -30 or worse have won 67% of those matchups.
Teams returning home after an extended road trip of five or more games often struggle with fatigue, as reflected in a disappointing 48-60 ATS record (44.4%) over the past two seasons. Additionally, players face various family-related distractions upon returning. Just ten days ago, Detroit lost to the Spurs at home, providing the Pistons' coaching staff with recent, relevant insights into San Antonio's defensive tactics—particularly around screens and in the paint. Detroit now enters this matchup with strong team chemistry and a fully healthy core, while the Spurs are set to be without Harrison Barnes (ankle), a key wing defender. Surprisingly, my model projects the Pistons as 1-point favorites in this matchup. Let's sprinkle some money line action as well. Dog call.
Big time strength vs. weakness matchup. Penn State’s interior defense is fundamentally flawed. The Nittany Lions are among the nation’s worst in two-point percentage defense, giving up a staggering 58.6% shooting inside the arc. This bodes well for the Buckeyes, who convert 57.8% of their two-point attempts. Penn State’s inability to defend inside almost guarantees a highly efficient offensive night for Ohio State. With the Buckeyes motivated to bolster their NCAA tournament resume, my model projects them to score at will in the paint and build a lead that should easily surpass the spread. Penn State, with little left to play for, is simply finishing out the season.
Colorado lost to the Ducks 2-1 in an overtime shootout despite outshooting Anaheim 41-16 on Jan. 21 in Denver. The Avs are one of two teams (Patterson’s Hurricanes) with an over +400 shot differential with roughly 6 weeks remaining in the regular season. Colorado has an elite high-danger differential (+40) and ranks 11th in Face-off win percentage, their best mark in many years. There is some concern about Colorado having played last night, even though the trip from Staples (Crypto) to Honda Center is only 30.5 miles. The Avalanche are 4-5 this season when playing without rest. Trust one of the most profitable systems I use in hockey over a large sample size. Look for Colorado to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Alabama finds easy looks at the rim and beyond the arc, hitting 77% from the free-throw line and 36% from three. Georgia, on the other hand, struggles to shoot from deep (ranked 215th) and rarely cleans up the boards (347th). They give up too many open threes, and Alabama’s smart offense knows just how to take advantage. The market overvalues Georgia’s home-court edge and overlooks its weaknesses in 3-point shooting and rebounding. While Georgia shot 40% from three-point land in defeating South Carolina on Saturday, they rarely string back-to-back efficient shooting games in a row. Alabama is 2nd in overall strength of schedule (9th non-conference); Georgia ranks 59th and 326th, respectively. I like the road dog in this spot.
The Ottawa Senators currently lead the league in fewest shots allowed and have an impressive +236 shot differential, including a +32 margin in High-Danger scoring chances. The Maple Leafs rank last in shots allowed and have a -256 shot differential, along with a -15 High-Danger differential. When these teams met last December, the Maple Leafs emerged victorious with a 7-5 win, fueled by two Power-Play goals and an empty-netter. Last year, the Maple Leafs eliminated Ottawa from the playoffs, and now the Senators are even more motivated to seek revenge after another recent defeat. This will be Toronto’s third game in four days after playing Florida on Thursday. Teams are 21-31 in games after playing the defending champs without extended rest.
Nathan MacKinnon averages 22:11 of ice time per game, but now faces a challenging 72-hour turnaround following the Olympic Gold Medal game. Coach Jared Bednar is considering resting his Olympians, including Cale Makar (25:08), for this matchup. With Colorado scheduled to play five games in seven nights, strategic rest becomes critical. There are also reports that MacKinnon played through an injury sustained after a hit in a game against France at the Olympics. The Mammoth ranks sixth in shots allowed per game and boasts a +101 shot differential, along with a +26 edge in high-danger chances. After a lengthy break, they resumed practice on February 17, essentially creating a mini "training camp" to prepare specifically for this matchup.
Duke enters the contest as one of the most mathematically dominant teams in the nation, ranking 9th overall in Offensive Efficiency and 4th in Defensive Efficiency. The Fighting Irish counter with a pedestrian OE of 114.9 (ranked 88th nationally) and a highly vulnerable Defensive Efficiency of 106.0 (ranked 109th). The Blue Devils have a magnificent 57.5% Effective Field Goal Percentage on the offensive end, a metric largely driven by a physically dominant interior presence that secures a massive 36.9% Offensive Rebounding Rate. Notre Dame will be forced to compete without freshman guard Jalen Haralson, their leading scorer and primary offensive initiator, who has been ruled out of this contest with an unspecified injury. My model has this all the way up to -19.5 for Duke.