Jeff's Picks (4 Live)
This is a spot that I look for quite often. Carolina defeated the Senators less than 10 days ago, 4-1, despite getting outshot 37-19 in Ottawa. The Senators are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing with zero days' rest this season. One of the losses was when they played in Utah and Colorado back-to-back. Ottawa is one of the few teams that can match Carolina’s defensive tenacity. The Hurricanes are coming off two OT games, and they are just 21-34 ATS this season. Carolina is undoubtedly a strong team, but their impressive record has been aided by facing the league's 11th easiest schedule.
The Penguins have won six in a row, but let's look at the teams they faced. The Rangers, Blackhawks, Canucks, Oilers, Flames, and Seattle. All but one team (Edm) averages 2.9 goals per game or fewer. The Penguins have played the league’s easiest schedule, while the Senators are ranked 14th. Ottawa is ranked third in shots against with a +195 shot differential (4th), whereas the Penguins are ranked 13th with a +97 shot differential, aided by that soft schedule. The Sens have allowed the fewest high-danger shots on goal and own a +19 HDSD, while Pittsburgh is ranked 19th and sports a +2 differential. Ottawa defeated the Penguins 4-0 earlier this season, and that was when the Penguins had Kris Letang patrolling the blue line.
This is Washington's 6th road game in 11 days across four different time zones. Washington is traveling West-to-East (Seattle to Detroit), a route historically associated with sluggish performance. The game in Seattle on the 27th implies a red-eye flight or a travel day on the 28th, which would eliminate practice time. Detroit has enjoyed the comforts of home and is coming into this matchup well-rested. Since December, the Red Wings have posted an impressive 6-1 record after a loss. Washington gives up High-Danger Chances at a rate that ranks in the bottom third of the league and will be without two key defenders. Detroit’s offense ranks 5th in creating them. The Red Wings own the better special teams and Face-off win percentage.
Nebraska’s non-conference SOS ranks #299, showing their strong record is built on weak opponents. They’re unbeaten in Big Ten play but benefited from close wins and a high “Luck” rating (#33 KenPom). Michigan, with a non-conference SOS of 14th, is No. 2 in KenPom and boasts an Adjusted Efficiency Margin (+35.87) nearly 8 points higher than Nebraska. Such a gap signals a major mismatch. It’s the equivalent of a Final 4 team against a Sweet 16 squad. Michigan’s top-ranked 2-point offense and defense, while playing the seventh hardest schedule, make them a powerhouse. Nebraska is a poor offensive rebounding team (17th Big Ten, 304th nationally), limiting second-chance points. On the road against Michigan’s physicality and the Crisler Center crowd, Nebraska faces a “market correction” blowout.
With WR Stefon Diggs expected to be blanketed by CB Patrick Surtain, Drake Maye’s most reliable option could be TE Hunter Henry. The Broncos’ pass defense is tough overall, but they’ve had trouble containing tight ends, especially in the middle of the field, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (59.7) to the position. It’s common for young quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends in loud, hostile stadiums, and Henry fits that “safety valve” role perfectly. He’s been a steady presence for New England, ranking seventh among tight ends in target share (18.05%) and surpassing this yardage mark in 11 of 18 games this season. Expect Maye to look Henry’s way early and often.
The Badgers rank 12th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (122.9), while Penn State’s defense has plummeted to 107.7 AdjD, ranking dead last in the Big Ten in field goal percentage allowed (48.3%). The deciding factor is the interior. Penn State surrenders a staggering 57% shooting on two-point attempts. Furthermore, with leading scorer Freddie Dilione limited by an ankle injury, Penn State lacks the firepower to trade baskets in a high-efficiency game. This is a revenge spot for Wisconsin, who were upset as 11-point home favorites by the Nittany Lions last March. Expect Wisconsin to dominate the paint and cover comfortably.
Buffalo will play its third game in four days, and a back-to-back is one of the most difficult situational challenges in the NHL. The absence of Josh Norris further weakens Buffalo’s center depth. This is a prime "scheduled win" opportunity for Nashville: they are rested, playing at home, and facing a depleted Buffalo squad that will be fatigued after chasing the puck against Carolina on Monday. Nashville ranks 6th in face-off win percentage, while Buffalo sits at 32nd. The Predators also welcome back Jonathan Marchessault, who has tallied 554 points in 745 career games. Nashville returns home after conceding 7 goals in Vegas. The Predators have defeated the Avalanche twice this season—a feat that few teams have managed even once against Colorado.
The Islanders are coming off a hard-fought 1-0 victory against the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, despite being outshot 35-18. New York boasts an elite goalie tandem, currently ranked third in save percentage, but the Flames’ duo of Cooley and Wolf—eighth in save percentage—should not be overlooked. Offensively, the Islanders rank 29th in scoring chances and ninth in PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage), while the Flames sit 21st in scoring chances and 31st in PDO. In hockey, teams with the lowest PDOs often see improvement as the season progresses. Defensively, the Islanders rank last in high-danger shots against (197) and have a -51 differential. The Flames, at -5, remain a tough opponent at home. I think the Flames should be at least -120.
The Maple Leafs face their third game in four days, with consecutive matchups at high altitude after just playing in Colorado on Monday night. Utah ranks 7th in shots against with a +118 shot differential, while Toronto sits at 29th with a -186 differential. The Mammoth allowed a season-high 36 shots in a 3-2 OT setback on Sunday. This is a great spot for the home team.
The Texans are built for speed and thrive in the controlled environment of NRG Stadium. However, traveling to Pittsburgh presents a stark contrast, with freezing temperatures and possible precipitation in the forecast. These harsh conditions slow down Houston’s quick receivers and diminish their athletic advantage. Since Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers possess elite offensive efficiency (12.4 Yards per point—best among AFC teams except Jacksonville) combined with solid defensive performance (16.0 OPP YPP—SUPERIOR to Houston's 15.5). The Steelers' AFC North championship victory over Baltimore creates a significant matchup with Houston at the #5 seed, where the Steelers' elite offense (12.4 YPP) and better defense (16.0 vs. 15.5 OPP YPP) create a +3.04 yard-per-point combined efficiency edge. My model makes Houston a -1.7 favorite. Grab the hook.
New England benefited from one of the NFL’s softest schedules and posted a 3–2 record against playoff teams. Since Week 12, the Patriots’ run defense has dropped to 30th in EPA/play. Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are masters at crafting a productive run game, even with injuries up front. Meanwhile, the Chargers lead the league in opponent passer rating; New England sits at 21st. Since 2002, first-time playoff QBs (Maye) are just 25-40 ATS (35.4% outright wins), a notable system for this spot. Justin Herbert’s postseason experience and elite processing give the Chargers a clear advantage. The Ravens recently played the Patriots—look for Jim Harbaugh to pick up valuable tips from his brother. Fade the Drake and grab the crucial hook at a discount.