Jeff's Picks (2 Live)
Jeff's Past Picks
This is a huge revenge game for the road team. Montreal defeated the Senators in overtime last month despite Ottawa holding a 3-2 lead in the third period. Ottawa is ranked 4th in shots allowed per game and has a +11 shot differential, while the Canadiens are ranked 17th with a -66 shot differential. The Senators rank first in Face-off win percentage, while Montreal is ranked 14th. Ottawa has four one-goal losses out of their last five defeats, while Montreal has had two one-goal losses out of their previous five. The Senators are almost at full strength with Brady Tkachuk back on the ice. Montreal will be without defenseman Jayden Struble, who missed Monday’s practice. I have Ottawa 14 spots higher in my power rankings.
This matchup exemplifies a classic betting trap. It features a winning team facing an inferior opponent, and the spread seems too easy. The Titans lost both meetings against the Jags last season, both by one possession, with a much weaker QB under center. Tennessee has not won a home game and will be motivated to secure a victory for its dedicated fans. This will be the Jaguars' fourth road game in five weeks and their first outdoor road game in over two months. That's an advantage for Tennessee that isn't reflected in the betting line. My model has Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite. Grab the 6.5 and sprinkle some money line action.
The San Francisco 49ers will be playing at 10:00 AM (body clock) on a short week. The weather forecast looks wet and cold, which the home team is more accustomed to playing in. Cleveland's defense ranks among the league's most fearsome pass-rushing units. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns' secondary features elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank 3rd in sack percentage (10.31%) and 3rd overall in defensive pressure, creating problems for any quarterback. This system from weeks 10 to 15 has achieved a success rate of just under 58% across a large sample, focusing on underdogs of 6.5 points or more with an over/under of 42 points or fewer.
Critical injuries to leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and safety Bud Clark hamper TCU. Cincinnati enters full strength with an offense averaging a dominant 6.6 yards per play (vs. TCU’s 5.8). The biggest mismatch is the Red Zone. Cincinnati is elite at finishing drives (89% scoring rate) and forcing stops (77% allowed), while TCU ranks 115th offensively and allows points on 85% of defensive trips. The Bearcats own the better offensive and defensive lines, as Cincinnati has a +1.2 sack differential (#1 in pressure rate allowed) while TCU is at 0.0. They are on a mission to end their losing skid in this revenge game, where they outgained TCU last year. My model has the wrong team favored.
The Ottawa Senators are ranked 3rd in shots against per game (25.3) with a +25 shot differential, while the Blues are ranked 16th (27.7) with a -55 shot differential. Ottawa owns the league's top-ranked Face-off win percentage (58.8%) while St. Louis sits at 13th (50.7%). Brady Tkachuk returns from injury and should be fired up playing in his hometown. The Blues return home from a five-game road trip and face many distractions with the Thanksgiving holiday. Canada celebrates the holiday in October. I love playing good Canadian teams against US teams on Black Friday.
This is not a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons after playing two straight overtime losses. Their defense was on the field for a total of 149 plays, and they are now basically playing their third consecutive road game. Atlanta had an early bye in Week 5 and is now playing its seventh consecutive week. New Orleans ranks 13th in consistency, while the Falcons rank 32nd and will be missing key starters on both sides of the ball. The Saints have two weeks to practice and install game plans. Kellen Moore's squad will be well-prepared following the bye week, during which teams are 14-8 this season.
Temple has two weeks to prepare for their revenge game against Tulane, which defeated the Owls 52-6 last year. This will be Tulane's third road game in the last four weeks. Tulane lost to UTSA 48-26 on the road, its most lopsided defeat. Temple defeated UTSA as 6-point home underdogs, and the Owls are 7-3 ATS this season. They need a victory to secure a Bowl birth. While they may not win, getting 8.5 points seems like an inflated line. Tulane has multiple players listed as questionable. Running back Maurice Turner, wide receiver Garrett Mmahat, and tight end Leron Husbands are all dealing with undisclosed injuries. Twelve players from the Green Wave are currently listed as questionable. I have the game Temple +7.
The Capitals eliminated the Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs last year. Washington will be playing the second game of back-to-back contests after scoring seven goals (including one empty-net goal) on just 21 shots yesterday (33.3% shooting). They will rely on Charlie Lindgren, who is a notable downgrade from Logan Thompson in goal. Home teams with at least one day of rest are winning at a 60% clip against zero-rest visitors, and this will be Washington's first trip to Canada this season. I like the home team in this spot.
This will be the Islanders' 4th road game in six days, with the last two occurring at high elevation (Utah & Colorado). Tough. Dallas is ranked in the top 10 in higher danger shots, while New York is ranked in the bottom 10 in high danger shots against. The Stars started slow but have a +8 goal differential in their last ten games, while the Islanders are -3 over the same time frame. New York has the 5th most penalty minutes, giving Dallas's 2nd-ranked power play (33.3%) a significant advantage. By contrast, the Stars have committed the 8th fewest penalty minutes. The regulation line is another option at similar odds if your book doesn't have -1 (-105).
I always like backing the Browns as home underdogs, especially in division games with the better stop unit. Cleveland has a point differential of -15.3 in unfamiliar territory, while at home, they post a +9.0 point differential in the Dawg Pound. The Ravens crushed the Browns 41-17 as 12.5-point home chalk despite getting outgained 322-242 back in Week 2 with Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland achieved more first downs and ran 19 more plays than Baltimore. A minus two turnover differential was costly. Myles Garrett called out his team after last week's loss, and the Browns will be highly motivated in this division matchup. With 15-25 mph winds and a 50% chance of light rain, we have the makings of a closer-than-expected low-scoring contest.
Jacksonville State's running game, ranked 4th in yards per game, is designed to exploit Kennesaw State's defensive weaknesses. If the Gamecocks dominate time of possession and control the tempo, they can limit Kennesaw State's offensive opportunities. The Gamecocks have built a historical home-field advantage tradition, maintaining a .731 winning percentage all-time at AmFirst Stadium. Kennesaw State has struggled away from the friendly confines of Georgia, posting a 2-2 record. My model indicates that the wrong team is favored, and Jacksonville State should be favored by -2.3 points. Look for the home team to defeat the Owls for the third straight time and improve to 4-0 ATS as home dogs of late.
The New Jersey Devils are by far the more talented team, with a significant edge in special teams. Washington is coming off a game against the Florida Panthers. NHL teams are just 4-9 after playing the defending champs, with two of those four wins occurring in OT. New Jersey has a 6-1 record when playing with two days of rest, dating back to last year, before the injuries to key players. Logan Thompson has not started more than three straight games, so Charlie Lindgren will get the start in goal for the Caps, which is a significant drop-off. Lindgren is 1-5 with a 4.13 GAA and .852 save percentage on Saturday over the last two seasons. Update. Jack Hughes is OUT. Light play.
This will be the Dallas Stars' first trip to Canada this season. They have won nine games, eight of which were victories by one goal, including a streak of six consecutive one-goal wins. Both teams have a goal differential of -3. However, Dallas has a shot differential of -37, while Ottawa is at +27. Linus Ullmark will be in goal for the Senators, and he's 2-0 with a 1.46 GAA and .952 save percentage against Dallas over the last three seasons. With both teams playing their third game in four days, let's ride with the Senators at home.