Jeff's Picks (2 Live)
The Edmonton Oilers are the more talented team and should elevate their play in this rivalry matchup. Edmonton is ranked 7th in shots against and has a +60 shot differential. Toronto is ranked 30th in shots allowed and owns a -127 shot differential. Both teams have comparable PK units, but the Oilers are ranked 2nd in PP% while the Maple Leafs are 31st. Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal after the big trade on Friday. He’s a major upgrade over Stuart Skinner, sporting a 2.66 GAA and .909 save percentage. The last time these teams played, Toronto won 4-3 in Edmonton despite getting outshot 48-28. Mitch Marner played a big role, and he’s now in Vegas. These Canadian teams take revenge games seriously.
This will be the Stars' 6th game in 9 days. Research shows Dallas is one of the NHL's most fatigue-sensitive teams. Dallas loses -9.26 fantasy points per game in back-to-back/fatigued situations. This is the second-worst fatigue impact in the entire NHL. Dallas defeated the Wild 5-2 in October despite getting outshot 41-25. The Stars scored two power-play goals and two empty-net goals. With a revenge game against Florida on deck, Dallas may not be fully focused here. Additionally, the Stars lead the NHL in hits taken (719), while Minnesota ranks 25th-fewest (534), which adds to the previous data point of playing six games in 9 days.
Starting with my power rankings: Dallas sits 7th, while the Jets check in at 21st. The Stars rank 15th in shots allowed per game, whereas Winnipeg is 24th. Both teams have negative shot differentials, but Dallas's -53 edges out Winnipeg's -89. Most tellingly, the Jets have stumbled to a 3-7 record since losing star goalie Connor Hellebuyck to injury, including a 0-6 mark against winning teams. The Jets have called up rookie Domenic DiVincentiis, and he could get the start between the pipes. That’s a little bit of an unknown. Light play on the road team.
Aaron Rodgers should be the starter heading into a pivotal matchup against the Ravens, but he's now gone four straight games with one or zero touchdowns and three consecutive games with under 165 passing yards. I typically play the underdog when these two teams meet. This matchup feels different. Pittsburgh's defense was on the field for 74 plays, totaling 41 minutes and 59 seconds. Baltimore owns a +0.2 net yards per play while the Steelers are -0.2. Lamar Jackson and several key defensive players missed multiple games due to injuries. After his three-turnover performance, Jackson and company will deliver a strong showing. John Harbaugh has 10 days to prepare after the team committed five turnovers last Thursday.
This is a spot I always look for. The Wild beat the Flames 2-0 despite getting outshot 36-19 on November 9th. Minnesota is 8-2 in its last ten games, six of which went to overtime/shootout. They have been outshot in their last two games, 66-48, and just defeated the Oilers in Edmonton. The Wild have a -72 shot differential, while the Flames are surprisingly +19 despite having only nine wins. They have been extremely unlucky, ranking 30th in PDO (shooting percentage & save percentage). Minnesota is ranked 9th and due for negative regression. The Flames recently defeated Dallas and Florida. They lost 1-0 in OT to the Carolina Hurricanes last week, who are second in my power rankings. Calgary can win this game!
This is a huge revenge game for the road team. Montreal defeated the Senators in overtime last month despite Ottawa holding a 3-2 lead in the third period. Ottawa is ranked 4th in shots allowed per game and has a +11 shot differential, while the Canadiens are ranked 17th with a -66 shot differential. The Senators rank first in Face-off win percentage, while Montreal is ranked 14th. Ottawa has four one-goal losses out of their last five defeats, while Montreal has had two one-goal losses out of their previous five. The Senators are almost at full strength with Brady Tkachuk back on the ice. Montreal will be without defenseman Jayden Struble, who missed Monday’s practice. I have Ottawa 14 spots higher in my power rankings.
This matchup exemplifies a classic betting trap. It features a winning team facing an inferior opponent, and the spread seems too easy. The Titans lost both meetings against the Jags last season, both by one possession, with a much weaker QB under center. Tennessee has not won a home game and will be motivated to secure a victory for its dedicated fans. This will be the Jaguars' fourth road game in five weeks and their first outdoor road game in over two months. That's an advantage for Tennessee that isn't reflected in the betting line. My model has Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite. Grab the 6.5 and sprinkle some money line action.
The San Francisco 49ers will be playing at 10:00 AM (body clock) on a short week. The weather forecast looks wet and cold, which the home team is more accustomed to playing in. Cleveland's defense ranks among the league's most fearsome pass-rushing units. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns' secondary features elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank 3rd in sack percentage (10.31%) and 3rd overall in defensive pressure, creating problems for any quarterback. This system from weeks 10 to 15 has achieved a success rate of just under 58% across a large sample, focusing on underdogs of 6.5 points or more with an over/under of 42 points or fewer.
Critical injuries to leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and safety Bud Clark hamper TCU. Cincinnati enters full strength with an offense averaging a dominant 6.6 yards per play (vs. TCU’s 5.8). The biggest mismatch is the Red Zone. Cincinnati is elite at finishing drives (89% scoring rate) and forcing stops (77% allowed), while TCU ranks 115th offensively and allows points on 85% of defensive trips. The Bearcats own the better offensive and defensive lines, as Cincinnati has a +1.2 sack differential (#1 in pressure rate allowed) while TCU is at 0.0. They are on a mission to end their losing skid in this revenge game, where they outgained TCU last year. My model has the wrong team favored.
The Ottawa Senators are ranked 3rd in shots against per game (25.3) with a +25 shot differential, while the Blues are ranked 16th (27.7) with a -55 shot differential. Ottawa owns the league's top-ranked Face-off win percentage (58.8%) while St. Louis sits at 13th (50.7%). Brady Tkachuk returns from injury and should be fired up playing in his hometown. The Blues return home from a five-game road trip and face many distractions with the Thanksgiving holiday. Canada celebrates the holiday in October. I love playing good Canadian teams against US teams on Black Friday.
This is not a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons after playing two straight overtime losses. Their defense was on the field for a total of 149 plays, and they are now basically playing their third consecutive road game. Atlanta had an early bye in Week 5 and is now playing its seventh consecutive week. New Orleans ranks 13th in consistency, while the Falcons rank 32nd and will be missing key starters on both sides of the ball. The Saints have two weeks to practice and install game plans. Kellen Moore's squad will be well-prepared following the bye week, during which teams are 14-8 this season.
Temple has two weeks to prepare for their revenge game against Tulane, which defeated the Owls 52-6 last year. This will be Tulane's third road game in the last four weeks. Tulane lost to UTSA 48-26 on the road, its most lopsided defeat. Temple defeated UTSA as 6-point home underdogs, and the Owls are 7-3 ATS this season. They need a victory to secure a Bowl birth. While they may not win, getting 8.5 points seems like an inflated line. Tulane has multiple players listed as questionable. Running back Maurice Turner, wide receiver Garrett Mmahat, and tight end Leron Husbands are all dealing with undisclosed injuries. Twelve players from the Green Wave are currently listed as questionable. I have the game Temple +7.
The Capitals eliminated the Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs last year. Washington will be playing the second game of back-to-back contests after scoring seven goals (including one empty-net goal) on just 21 shots yesterday (33.3% shooting). They will rely on Charlie Lindgren, who is a notable downgrade from Logan Thompson in goal. Home teams with at least one day of rest are winning at a 60% clip against zero-rest visitors, and this will be Washington's first trip to Canada this season. I like the home team in this spot.