R.J.'s Picks (8 Live)
J.J. McCarthy has turned the narrative around with two straight quality performances against NFC East defenses ...
With Davante Adams unlikely to play, the Rams passing game figures to funnel through one key player. But I see this number as simply too high for this particular Thursday night game where the weather could suppress offense. The Seahawks held Nacua to 75 receiving yards in the first meeting, and all defensive attention will likely go to limiting his output, which is notable considering the elite unit opposing him. The Seahawks haven't allowed more than 90 yards to a wide receiver since Week 5, and the last three players to get to 90 receiving yards against them have been tight ends. We also have to wonder about the potential for team discipline in the form of early-game benching following Nacua's livestream antics this week.
We're looking at a few different reasons to like this play. First, these defenses forced the opposing QBs into their worst games of the year in the first meeting, resulting in a 21-19 finish. Second, that was indoors and this matchup will be outside in what are expected to be windy and possibly rainy conditions that could affect the kicking game and deep passing. Third, key offensive players will be missing on both sides, with Davante Adams doubtful and Charles Cross out. Without his left tackle, Sam Darnold is in danger of another poor outing, which would be his fourth in a six-game stretch. Divisional rematches trend to the Under historically, and these conditions are ripe for it to hit here.
The Steelers need a win here to remain a game up on the Ravens, and they're going to have a key matchup advantage at tight end. The Dolphins allow the second most receiving yards to TEs in the league, and Pittsburgh has three good ones. But Washington has been the snap leader at the position for much of the season, on the field more than 60% of the time in seven of the last 10 games. He's had multiple catches in six of those seven high snap games and less than 20 yards only once. He's tended to be more involved at home as well, and the cold weather should make him tough to bring down. I'd play this up to 24.5.
We'll see if De'Von Achane is able to play, but early indication is that his injury is minor. Whoever the Dolphins roll out at RB could be in for a monster game, as the Steelers have been gashed for 466 rushing yards the last two weeks. Miami has 160+ rushing yards in four straight, even with Achane leaving early last week, so Miami's path to offensive success is clear. The Dolphins defense has allowed 17 points or less in four straight, and the Steelers offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders down the stretch. This is one that should be 3 at best, so I'll take the hook.
The Cowboys are moderate favorites tonight and typically play well at home, and I expect Williams is going to get into the end zone on one of their scoring drives. He's scored in eight of his 13 games, and he's averaging more than 20 touches over the last four weeks. Five of the six offensive TDs the Vikings have given up over the last four games have been RB rushing touchdowns, four from the 1-yard line, and Williams is the trusted back at the goal line for Dallas. I think this should be in the -150 range.
J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game of the season, but he also got to throw against air. The Cowboys defense has been better in recent weeks, including helping the team beat the Eagles and Chiefs in their last two at home. The Dallas offense also shines at home, where the Cowboys have just one game under 400 yards gained. The lookahead was 7.5 and that's probably a better number for this matchup with the Cowboys on extra rest.
The Colts would love to get ahead early and keep Jonathan Taylor as the focal point of their offense, but at some point Philip Rivers is going to have to throw some passes. I expect his primary weapon to be Warren, who has been a key weapon for Indy most of the year but disappeared a bit the last two weeks, though one was against a tough Houston defense and the other featured a QB in Riley Leonard just trying to keep his head above water. The Seahawks allow the second most yards per game to tight ends, so this is a great matchup for Warren to shine.