R.J.'s Picks (8 Live)
The Saints are coming off a surprising win over the Bucs ...
I have the Rams as the best team in the league in my power ratings ...
J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game of the season ...
The Falcons are coming off one of their worst losses of the season, but it was also the first time since October they lost by more than three in regulation, and the game was close at halftime before a kickoff return TD. The Bucs have two wins by more than three all year, and the Saints blowout was deceiving with a pick-six and three FG drives under 20 yards. Perhaps the shifting injury landscape makes the Bucs a little bit stronger in this matchup, but with the team at -0.7 yards per play on the year, I think it's tough to make them this much of a favorite unless they're facing a legit bottom-feeder, and Atlanta doesn't qualify with its run prior to last week.
The Eagles have been in a slump since halftime of the Cowboys game, but this should be a spot where their defense can control the game and come away with the win. I love the matchup of the Eagles' excellent defensive front against this makeshift Chargers O-line, and I like it even more if Trey Lance is under center as Justin Herbert recovers from hand surgery. Even if it's Herbert, he's likely to come off the field in fourth-and-1 situations, where the Eagles would then have an even bigger advantage. If the Eagles focus on the rushing offense, they could have similar success to Jacksonville, a team that blew out the Chargers prior to its bye. This needs to be at least 3.
The Chiefs offensive line is ravaged by injury, and that's a problem against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. Mahomes had thrown an interception in four straight games before escaping the Dallas loss without a pick, and he had 3+ sacks in all of those games after hitting that mark just once previously. With Houston at 12 interceptions on the season, I think a pick here is more likely than not, so I love being able to get plus odds at FanDuel.
The Chiefs' offensive line is in a bad state with Josh Simmons out and both Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith in doubt. It seems like Taylor is tracking toward missing the game because Jaylon Moore is prepping to play right tackle, which puts Wanya Morris at left tackle. His struggles last year was one reason why the Chiefs reconfigured their line to put guard Joe Thuney on the blind side, and I have zero confidence he holds up against this elite Texans defensive front. With the Chiefs' defense not playing at an elite level over the last four games and with C.J. Stroud looking solid in his return last week, this line can't be more than 3 and probably should be a bit lower.
The Rams are coming off a shocking loss to the Panthers, and the defense has proven inconsistent when the opposing QB isn't either playing hurt or giving the ball away at will. The Cardinals ended a streak of eight straight games with 20+ points last week, but a red-zone pick plus a missed field goal led to scoring just 17 points despite their excellent 6.3 yards per play against the Bucs. If the Rams can hold them under 20, they'll be the first to do so all year, but I don't think that defense is playing well enough to pull it off.
The Rams had a wake-up call last week on a cross-country trip, and the market expects a big bounce back this week. But I look at the Cardinals and see a team that remains competitive most weeks with Jacoby Brissett at QB, and they completely outplayed the Bucs last week despite the loss. Arizona's one home loss by more than four points came in a game where they outgained the 49ers by more than 200 yards, and the Rams D has looked a bit soft when the opposing QB isn't melting down. This is a good backdoor cover spot, but if Arizona's defense can get Walter Nolen back this week after Will Johnson returned last week, they could be live for the upset.
The Packers typically have one of the better home-field advantages in the league, but they've had a few ugly losses at home this year where the offense has struggled. But even if you give them a full 3 points for HFA, I don't think line should be higher than 6. The Bears have won 9 of 10, and question the competition if you want, but that run started with a win against Dallas and includes a win in Philadelphia last week where they were clearly the better team. Caleb Williams has settled in to Ben Johnson's offense, and Chicago has averaged nearly 25 points per game over the last three weeks against the Vikings, Steelers and Eagles. Let's give them a little more respect.