R.J.'s Picks (8 Live)
J.J. McCarthy has turned the narrative around with two straight quality performances against NFC East defenses ...
The Steelers need a win here to remain a game up on the Ravens, and they're going to have a key matchup advantage at tight end. The Dolphins allow the second most receiving yards to TEs in the league, and Pittsburgh has three good ones. But Washington has been the snap leader at the position for much of the season, on the field more than 60% of the time in seven of the last 10 games. He's had multiple catches in six of those seven high snap games and less than 20 yards only once. He's tended to be more involved at home as well, and the cold weather should make him tough to bring down. I'd play this up to 24.5.
We'll see if De'Von Achane is able to play, but early indication is that his injury is minor. Whoever the Dolphins roll out at RB could be in for a monster game, as the Steelers have been gashed for 466 rushing yards the last two weeks. Miami has 160+ rushing yards in four straight, even with Achane leaving early last week, so Miami's path to offensive success is clear. The Dolphins defense has allowed 17 points or less in four straight, and the Steelers offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders down the stretch. This is one that should be 3 at best, so I'll take the hook.
The Cowboys are moderate favorites tonight and typically play well at home, and I expect Williams is going to get into the end zone on one of their scoring drives. He's scored in eight of his 13 games, and he's averaging more than 20 touches over the last four weeks. Five of the six offensive TDs the Vikings have given up over the last four games have been RB rushing touchdowns, four from the 1-yard line, and Williams is the trusted back at the goal line for Dallas. I think this should be in the -150 range.
J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game of the season, but he also got to throw against air. The Cowboys defense has been better in recent weeks, including helping the team beat the Eagles and Chiefs in their last two at home. The Dallas offense also shines at home, where the Cowboys have just one game under 400 yards gained. The lookahead was 7.5 and that's probably a better number for this matchup with the Cowboys on extra rest.
The Colts would love to get ahead early and keep Jonathan Taylor as the focal point of their offense, but at some point Philip Rivers is going to have to throw some passes. I expect his primary weapon to be Warren, who has been a key weapon for Indy most of the year but disappeared a bit the last two weeks, though one was against a tough Houston defense and the other featured a QB in Riley Leonard just trying to keep his head above water. The Seahawks allow the second most yards per game to tight ends, so this is a great matchup for Warren to shine.
This will be a fascinating game with Philip Rivers on the field for the first time in five years, and the market certainly expects the Seahawks to run away with it. If that's the case, there's a good chance the ball is taken out of Darnold's hands. In the five of his 13 starts where he's been over this attempts number, two were losses and two saw the Seahawks tied or behind at the half. Conversely, in the two recent games where the Seahawks were also double digit favorites, Darnold had 26 pass attempts in each. I think that's around where he finishes again in this one.
The Titans are coming off a rare win, so it's time to fade them even at the high number. The 49ers' last five wins have all been by double digits, and they held two bad offenses to single digits before their bye. The Titans offense has had more than 300 yards twice all year and didn't do much for the final three quarters last week. The 49ers have 26+ points in four of their last five, and the WR corps should be running closer to full health coming out of the bye. I think the 49ers roll.