Players that continue to be borderline on their over/unders can be difficult to tab the breakout game. For the Saints their success has been tied to keeping the offense simple for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Even in a favorable matchup against the New York Jets, I expect the big pass play connections to be minimal. Fade Juwan Johnson who has had a receiving yardage dip in three straight games.
The New Orleans Saints have suddenly become one of the more appealing teams ATS this week. They have covered in four out of their last five games, and won consecutive games for the first time this season. Shifting from an underdog to a favorite is certainly worthy against a Jets team that has lost four of five games by double digits. Yet, this number has jumped to much from the original market number. Take the Jets.
End of the season patterns do exist. For the Dallas Cowboys, Jake Ferguson has been a consistent option for the offense. Overall he ranks tenth in catches in the NFL, but is coming off just two catches for sixteen yards in last week’s loss to the Vikings. He had a similar end of season decline last year for the Cowboys when he finished three out of the last four games with 23 yards or less. Fade Ferguson for a second straight week.
The LA Chargers do have ten wins on the season, but they are coming off tough games the last two weeks against the Eagles and Chiefs. They had the overtime win against the Eagles, and traveled to Kansas City on a short week where they had to comeback for that win. It’s the first time all season they are playing consecutive games on the road. Look for another slow start from the Chargers offense, and for Dallas to take advantage. Grab the Cowboys.
Bryce Young has struggled in his short career against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an 0-4 record. If the Panthers have any shot at ending that, they need to get Bryce Young out of the predictable passing offense we tend to see at times with Carolina. Tampa Bay has shown their vulnerability with their pass defense all season long, and rookie Tet McMillan I expect to break out in a big way. I would not be shocked if he is a top five to eight receiver on the week, and may even surpass his total yards of the last three games which is 103 yards.
Typically when a team has their star player ruled out, and are in a back to back spot we see a wild line move. That is not the case with the Celtics who will be without Jaylen Brown tonight. Just thirteen days ago they went into Toronto and won by thirteen. After winning eight straight games at home, the Raptors have now lost four straight games at home. Take the Celtics here
A team that has been inconsistent is James Madison. Their struggles have been compounded on the road where they are 1-5 overall. Yet, before a big game you can get a team to focus on what lies ahead. After today’s matchup against Georgia Southern they will have a nine day layoff before facing Arkansas. Take the Dukes to cover and threaten Georgia Southern’s six game winning streak.
The HBCU Classic continues Friday with a pair of matchups. The second game will feature two teams that have just one win each against division one opponents in Norfolk State and Jackson State. The Tigers had great individual play from Daeshun Ruffin in yesterday’s loss to Hampton with 36 points. Expect a down shooting night for Ruffin in consecutive games, and for Norfolk State to get their second win over a division one school. Lay the number.
Trae Young returned for the Atlanta Hawks yesterday, and the team got off to a flat start defensively against the Charlotte Hornets. They did get back in the game but still lost by seven points. With Young resting, I believe that gives value for the Hawks against a Spurs team they had a smaller spread for in San Antonio. As we saw with the Knicks yesterday, this could be a flat spot for San Antonio off the NBA Cup in Las Vegas. Take Atlanta here plus the points.
One of the yearly small school matchups I tend to gravitate towards is Tennessee Martin against Tennessee State. The Tigers won both matchups last season, including a one point win in overtime. Remarkably tonight will mark their first home game against a division one opponent all season. Look for UT Martin to get off to the faster start, and seek revenge for last year’s sweep.
If there is any team that needed the mini layoff from the NBA Cup championship it was the Miami Heat. They have lost five straight games, and scored a season low 96 points in Monday’s loss to the Raptors. Even without Tyler Herro, look for the Heat to overwhelm a Nets team that is playing over their capabilities with wins in four out of their last six games. Lay the number with Miami.
A team that has started to show life after early season struggles are the Bradley Braves. They began the season just 1-3 overall, and now have won each of their last four games. The difference tonight is a conference game against Indiana State, as well as just their second true road game of the season. The Braves won both matchups a season ago including a season high 118 points in the second meeting. Lay the number here with Bradley.
A team where their overall record is misleading is Louisiana Tech at 6-3. They have won four out of their last five games, and each of their last three victories have been by margins of twenty plus points. Yet, the strength of competition has not been there, and they are 0-3 on the road. Grab the Green Wave here.
One of the toughest things to do is play early conference games in December, and then have a layoff. That is a factor tonight for Cal Poly that played two Big West conference games, and go into tonight on a ten day layoff. Montana State has just two wins against division one schools, and just played three days ago against Oregon State. Despite a poor road record of 1-6, look for their road heavy schedule to pay dividends tonight. Lay the small number or moneyline Montana State.
San Antonio is coming off ending the Oklahoma City Thunder’s sixteen game winning streak in Saturday’s semi-final win. When a star player returns the impact is typically felt in the second game. Expect Wemby to have a minutes increase, and for the Knicks star guard to be ready to attack the Spurs defense. Additionally, the Spurs have two players Mike Brown coached on his last time in Sacramento in D’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes. Expect Brown to have the right sets for Brunson to attack in half court.