Sia's Picks (3 Live)
We've seen the expected big increases in Chris Godwin's snap share over the last three weeks as he has been ramped up coming off significant injury. He's now fully back and will likely get even more opportunities in the middle of the field due to Cade Otton potentially being out for this game. The Falcons will send a lot of pressure and blitz packages in Baker Mayfield's direction and I like the idea of Baker finding Godwin in the middle of the field to move the chains.
This Bucs defense isn't as stingy against the run as they were earlier in the season and they're down a couple of pieces on defense. I expect the Falcons to control the clock early with Bijan and I'm not expecting a Bucs offensive explosion early as Baker has been off and he's been particularly bad against the blitz. Yes, Baker has his receiver group back, but I'm not certain they'll be operating on all cylinders right away and the offensive line is still down their starting guards. I prefer this 1st half line as I fear the thought of Kirk Cousins playing comeback ball in the 2nd half without his leading receiver. This line is at DK.
It's going to be tough for the Chiefs to move the ball on the Texans defense, but I think the preferred method will be via the pass (as it usually is for KC). While I do expect volume I don't expect efficiency from Mahomes especially with a banged up offensive line. Look for Mahomes to try to pepper the short area for a large portion of this game. There are still 34.5s at MGM and FD but MGM is currently offering the better price between the two.
I expect this game to stay competitive with Jayden Daniels now playing (honestly, I would have said the same with Mariota) and that means the run game should stay fully integrated. Chris Rodriguez will be the lead back in most neutral and positive game scripts and we've seen evidence of that with 11+ carries in 3 of the last 4 games (granted, two went to OT). I don't expect Croskey-Merritt or MchNichols to get much run, but even if they get more than expected, I think Rodriguez gets to 11 carries. I lean to his yardage over as well at 40.5.
BetMGM has this at even money and I think that's pretty good value in a game that could come down to who has the ball last. I was hoping the Cowboys would get Diggs back for this game, but either way, they are the healthier team on both sides of the ball and I think Detroit is going to have trouble leaning on its secondary and its beat-up wide receiver group and offensive line. Yes, the game is in Detroit and the Lions are still a solid team, but 3 points is too much to give to the Cowboys right now.
Tyrone Tracy has exceeded this rushing attempt number in each of his last three games and that was against some solid rush defenses. The Patriots are another elite rush defense as far as the metrics go, but they are without Milton Williams and that should keep Tracy very involved the gameplan. Devin Singletary will steal some carries from Tracy, but expect a heavy dose of the run game with Tyrone Tracy leading the way. I also like his over of 47.5 Rush Yards.
Apologies for the late post but Chimere Dike props didn't populate until late last night. The game logs for Dike have been a little sketchy lately as he has been very hit or miss, but this is a game where we have a nice matchup against a gettable Jaguars pass defense. I don't see a ton of success from the run game for the Titans and I do think they lean on Cam Ward (projected for 200+ pass yards where I lean to the over). I think the Titans will be competitive, but we also have the potential for a negative game script which should get Dike a couple more targets.
Draftkings is still hanging at -10 and I'll gladly take it. There's not much positive you can say as it relates to how Carolina matches up against the Rams. The Rams have an incredibly dynamic offense and the Panthers defense is now down two important pieces in the secondary. The Carolina offense will try and establish the run, but this is a great Rams rush defense and their pass defense should have no issue with Bryce Young. It's a lot of points and it's a west coast team playing a 1:00 start, but these two teams are worlds apart. I'm ok playing the 10.5 if that's where it is at your book.
It's a little expensive with respect to the juice, but it's worth taking the 23.5 as opposed to 24.5. Patrick Mahomes has hit this completions number in 6 of 8 games and the matchup against the Cowboys should lead to similar results. The Cowboys Front 7 has certainly improved and the Chiefs are most likely to utilize the short area air attack as opposed to the run game. That will translate into extended and efficient drives where Mahomes can pile up the completions. Look for Dallas to put up some quick strike points as well which will hand the ball right back to Mahomes to slowly matriculate the ball downfield with his arm.
As I was beginning to put this pick through, the line jumped from 204.5 to 208.5 at Fanduel and 206.5 to 208.5 at Draftkings (I hope that doesn't end up mattering). Bryce Young has only exceeded this number twice this year, but I think all the ingredients are present for a solid passing day as he's got his full complement of receivers, a likely negative game script, a high projected point total and a 49ers defense that can't rush the passer. Yes, the Panthers will try to run the ball, but they haven't been quite as efficient in that department and I suspect Robert Saleh will force Bryce Young to lean on his arm just like he was forced to (successfully) do last week.
Stafford's passing volume hasn't been staggeringly high lately, but that's in large part due to matchups and game script. Last week's 15 completions was more of a matchup issue as Seattle dared the Rams to run the ball, but this week Stafford has a good setup to pass against a great Tampa rush defense. Add that the Bucs love to bring pressure and Stafford's ability to beat pressure and I think we'll see a lot of passing and efficiency. I think this game will be reasonably competitive as well which should keep the passing game pedal down.
[I'm ok playing this line at 33.5 as long as it's -110 or shorter and I lean to the Completions over at 19.5 at anything short of -130]. Last week Winston only threw the ball 29 times but that game was highly competitive and included 35 rush attempts between Tracy and Singletary. This game is likely to get out of hand quickly in a great bounce back spot for Detroit. Look for the Giants and Winston to lean on the passing game in catch up mode. I don't suspect we'll see a ton of efficiency which is why I lean to the attempts (however, I do think there will be enough short area throws for Jameis to hit both).