It's difficult to assess passing volume for the Patriots ...

Stafford has struggled a bit on the road in the playoffs, but he gets a familair matchup against the Seahawks and a TD number that he has smashed pretty much all regular season (11 games in a row with 2+ passing TDs or more prior to the playoffs). I'm not as worried about the finger injury as some and I also think this prop is game script proof, as the Rams have learned the hard way that they need to keep the pedal down for all 4 quarters against the Seahawks.

A lot of juice here and I'm good with playing the 12.5 line at anything near even money. Rhamondre Stevenson appears to be the lead back in this offense as TreVeyon has taken a bit of a back seat (look no further than the efficience numbers to see why). Rhamondre had 16 carries last week and probably would have had more if not for a 2nd quarter eye injury that had him miss some time. A likely neutral and/or positive game script should be in play against Denver and I expect time of possession to favor the Patriots, which will lead to more plays for the Patriots. Look for Rhamondre to get to at least 13-14 carries (this line at FD).

BetMGM opened this Stefon Diggs prop at 51.5 and that number is now gone, but DK still has it at 50.5 (I would play this under as low as 48.5). The Patriot receiver group has a tough matchup against the Texans and I think Diggs is likely to get plenty of attention from the Texans top two corners. The Patriots like to utilize all of their receiving weapons and that includes the likes of Chism, Williams, Douglas, Henry, Boutte and the running backs. With a tough matchup in mind and the fact that Maye is likely to spread it thin across his plethora of pass catchers, I don't see Diggs having enough big splash plays to hit this over.

This line is over at BetMGM and I'd be willing to play it up to 57.5. The recipe for the Seahawks will be to methodically march down the field with both of their running backs and the 49er bend/don't break defense is likely to oblige. To that end, we're likely to see both Walker and Charbonnet hit their rush attempt overs, but I like the explosive potential of Walker a bit more. Two weeks ago in San Francisco he went for 97 yards on 16 rush attempts and I think he gets similar work and at least 2/3rds of the efficiency in this one. Notable that the Seahawks OLine is getting healthier and that it's a likely positive game script for Seattle.

The Eagles shouldn't have a ton of trouble moving the ball against this 49ers defense and I think their ability to extend drives will also extend the workload of Saquon Barkley. Barkley has hit this rush attempt total in each of his last four games, and with a week to rest and a healthier OLine, I suspect it'll be a lot of work for Barkley in the wild card round.

Well we hit on the "Average" QB Parlay on The Early Edge, in large part due to Trevor Lawrence, so we may as well lean into the bit and to the plus money. In a game with a total north of 50 and against a defense that may have trouble stopping the Jags, I think this price is off. Yes, the path to beating the Bills is through the rush attack, but the Jags should be able to move the ball by air and ground. Trevor and company should find themselves in plus terriorty more often than not and Liam Coen's trust in Trevor's arm is at an all time high.

There's plenty of variance that comes with passing touchdown props, but I'm willing to put said variance to the test against a terrible Lions defense and in a game that has a total north of 50. Caleb Williams has hit this number in each of his last four games. While one of those games was against the questionable 49er defense, the other three were against the Packers (twice) and the Browns. The main fear is rushing touchdowns for the Bears, but I like our chances of Caleb slinging at least two with his arm. Notable that the Bears have plenty to play for and that the Lions will push the Bears by rolling out their starters.

Kevin Austin flashed some efficiency last week against the Titans (4 of 5 for 52) and is averaging just over 4 targets over the last three games. Yes, that's a small sample size and the Falcons secondary is better than the Titans, but with Chris Olave out, Austin should be in line for even more targets. Tyler Shough continues to audition for the starting QB job for the Saints and a potential OROY award and he'll likely pepper Kevin Austin with enough volume to hit this number (Shough passing yards prop set at 230+ at most books which is very high considering Chris Olave is out for this game).

Baker Mayfield had 44 Pass Attempts last week, but that was more of a matchup and game script situation against Miami than anything. He's only gone over this Pass Attempt line in two of his last seven games and that includes only 26 pass attempts against Carolina in Week 16. In contrast to last week's game against Miami, the best path to attack Carolina is via the run (evidenced by a combined 33 rush attempts from Charbonnet and KWIII last week). Also notable that no QB has gone over this line against CAR since Week 9. In a likely neutral or positive game script, expect a lot of work from the Tampa RBs in this one. I like Baker's under 21.5 completions line as well.

There's a battle for last place brewing in Vegas on Sunday, but my guess is that they'll be more 'give up' on the Giants side. That's good news for Ashton Jeanty going up against a very poor rush defense. With the exception of last week, Jeanty has looked very rough, but the reality is that the Raiders schedule versus the run has been absolutely awful for the last couple of months. That changes dramatically this week. It's notable that the Raiders may be getting some reinforcements back on the offensive line, but either way, I think Jeanty gets over this number against NYG.

Chris Olave has been excellent with Tyler Shough and I don't see that tailing off this week against a pass funnell Titans defense. With Devaughn Vele out we are seeing an even more condensed target share with Olave and Juwan Johnson as the primary targets. I think Olave is primed to have another ceiling game as he dominates the target share and air yard share for the Saints.

This prop failed me last week, but I don't mind going back to it this week in a pretty solid matchup. The Bengals are a bad defense as we all know, but they're particularly bad against the pass and allow plenty of opposing QB TD production. While TD passes are admittedly riddled with variance, I think the game script and offensive gameplan dictate that Brissett will likely throw in the red zone area. In a game projected for 50+ points and in an undedog role, I like Brissett to return to his 2+ TD stat line (like he had in three outings prior to last week).

Happy to see that we have another sharp analyst at Sportsline that is already on this play. It's notable that FanDuel has this at 16.5 while most books have it at 15.5 and one book as low as 14.5. Keenan Allen has been under this in 5 of 6 games, which shouldn't be a huge surprise as his routes pepper the short area. His receptions line is 3.5 (shaded to the under) and we can expect him to continue to share snaps with the plethora of healthy receivers at Herbert's disposal. Keenan Allen is a chain mover and not a deep ball threat or a YAC guy and this is a less than ideal matchup against the Texans secondary. I like this down to 15.5.

Jacoby Brissett has been slinging it since taking over as the starter and I don't expect that to change dramatically, even without the benefit of a garbage time script. The Falcons have actually been decent against the run as of late and its their pass defense that has regressed. With this in mind, expect the Cardinals to move the ball with Brissett's arm as he zeroes in on his primary pass catchers in the redzone.