I played New York +100 on SuperBook. I make the Yankees 54 percent winners in this matchup with Stroman vs. Gausman, which implies a moneyline price of -117. I have major concerns about the barrel rate on Gausman's fastball, which is down in velocity early this season.

I'm backing the Rangers again today as Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford should be back in the lineup. I have Texas winning 57 percent of simulations which makes this line -133. Casey Mize has struggled with hard contact most of his career and he will again this season. You can find this at -118 on SuperBook.

I have the Rangers winning 57 percent of simulations which suggest this price should be -133. Reese Olson's barrel rate in early 2024 is nearly identical to the very poor mark he put up last season. The Rangers should have success against the slider and 4-seam fastball.

The Cubs pitching edge gets even stronger in the best pitching environment in baseball. Emerson Hancock should struggle with this Cubs lineup. I have Chicago winning 59 percent of simulations which suggests they should be -144.

I have the Phillies winning 59 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -144 with Aaron Nola against Lance Lynn. Lynn has had a nice career but he's clearly past his prime in his age 36 season. Lynn has already been barreled 5 times on just 26 batted balls this season.

My simulations make the Orioles 60 percent winners with Corbin Burnes vs. Brayan Bello which implies this line should be -150. I expect Bello to really struggle with Henderson, Rutschman, and Santander from the left side of the plate. I played this -129 on SuperBook and would play it up to -140.

BOILER UP!

I have the Dodgers winning 60 percent of simulations in this matchup which implies this money line should be -150. Bailey Ober is still overvalued in this matchup as he tends to give up a lot of hard contact through the air. Look for a nice offensive day from the Dodgers.

My simulations make UConn -8 which is still a very healthy number for a Final 4 game. Alabama is one of the best Rim & 3 Rate teams in the country, and they achieve this with a unique blend of pace and size. I believe Donovan Glingan will struggle to play more than 25 minutes due to fouls and pace. With the game never really in doubt, a backdoor cover at 11.5 is well within the range of outcomes here. Take the points.

I played the Orioles at -130 on SuperBook and would still play them up to -138 in this matchup. Jared Jones is a respected prospect that looked good in his first appearance, but I have some concerns about the youngster who will really only feature two pitches (slider and 4-seam fastball). My simulations make the Orioles 59 percent winners behind Rodriguez, which suggests this line should be -144.

Wednesday 4/3 - Musgrove vs. Thompson. I like the Under 8.5 (-120) here as I think this line should be 7.5 and will likely close at 8. It's possible that we'll see watered-down lineups with the afternoon start time, but either way, I like the pitching matchup in one of the best pitching environments in MLB. I will share more in depth on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.

My simulations have the Mariners winning 61 percent of the time which implies this line should be -156 with George Kirby vs. Nick Pivetta.

I love both of these teams, but the number is too big on the neutral court with time to prepare. I make Purdue a -2 favorite and like betting into this number at +4.5, as I think there is a lot of variance in Purdue the rest of the way depending on how Zach Edey is able to stay out of foul trouble. I think it will be difficult for him against Graham Ike and a disciplined Gonzaga team. Take the points.

I like both of these teams overall this season, but I prefer the price point on the Rangers at home on opening day. My simulations indicate that they have a 56 percent chance of winning in this matchup, which implies a -127 on the moneyline. I'm a big fan of Justin Steele long-term, but I favor this Rangers lineup against left-handed pitching, and I also like Eovaldi in this environment.

My simulations make Arizona -9 vs. Clemson in this matchup. Arizona has a sizable rebounding edge, doesn't put opponents on the foul line often, and will really push Clemson with pace.