My simulations make this line -6.5 for Buffalo, while the SportsLine model projects it at -14 (!!). Atlanta’s defensive metrics are inflated due to a soft early-season schedule against weak opposing quarterback play.

The ultimate buy-low spot for the Wildcats. Dylan Edwards has been medically cleared to play, which should provide a nice boost to Avery Johnson and the K-State offense, but I still like them even if he doesn’t take the field. This is an absolute must-win game for K-State, and I make them -3

The addition of Ben Johnson as head coach is going to be an immediate boost for Caleb Williams and the Bears offensively. J.J. McCarthy may be a solid QB, but I’m more than willing to fade him in his NFL debut on the road in primetime—especially with one of his top receivers, Jordan Addison, out and Justin Jefferson possibly less than 100%. I make the Bears -2 home favorites in this game. Play +2 (-112) if you have BetRivers, or +1.5 (-105) at FanDuel or other books.

There’s plenty of familiarity on both sides when it comes to these defensive units matching up against the opposing quarterbacks. The Jets hold the edge at quarterback and across the skill positions, which makes catching a full +3 at home particularly appealing given that I project this game as a true pick’em. With a strong defensive front and secondary depth, the Jets are well-positioned to generate enough disruption to keep Aaron Rodgers and the opposing offense off balance.

I make Ole Miss -13.5 in this "revenge" game, as Kentucky is the team that kept Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff. I project the Wildcats to take a step backward this season, while early in the year is when I want to back Lane Kiffin. Kentucky should have a tough time scoring in this game.

The Chargers enter the season a little banged up on the offensive line, which is likely to be a problem against a healthy and well-rested Chiefs defensive front. Patrick Mahomes also benefits from Rashee Rice’s potential suspension being delayed. With Rice, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Travis Kelce, and a healthy backfield, Mahomes should have plenty of support offensively. Considering the injuries, current depth charts, and the neutral-site location, I make the Chiefs -4.5 in Week 1. Despite that projection, I would ONLY play Kansas City at -3 (-115) or better.

This line should be solidly north of -7, as I make it -8.5 and a few other respectable models have it at -10. The Eagles should control the line of scrimmage and have little issue scoring in Week 1. Lay it at -6.5 (-120).

I have Notre Dame winning 62% of simulations, which implies the line should be -163.

I expect a strong bounce-back effort from Alabama this season, and I think they will use this opportunity to run it up late. My simulations make this line -17 for the Crimson Tide.

South Florida will no doubt be improved this season, but I'm not expecting a significant drop-off from Boise State. Losing Ashton Jeanty will certainly be felt at times, but the Broncos return plenty of production and experience at quarterback and on the offensive line. I make this game -7.5, which is much closer to the opening number of -8.5, and I'm willing to play it now that we've crossed the key numbers of 7 and 6.

I love a true neutral site to start the season, especially when it carries big implications for both teams in the Big 12 and potentially the College Football Playoff. I project Kansas State to have a meaningful edge with their offensive line and ground game behind Avery Johnson and the running backs. Iowa State loses a lot offensively, which will be tough to replace in a familiar matchup like this. I make Kansas State -4.1 here, which gives a clear play at -3 (-110) at Caesars.

I'm playing the Tigers at -118 on NoVig and would still play them up to -140 on traditional books. I'm willing to buy low on the Tigers during their offensive slump coming out of the All-Star break. I have them winning nearly 59%, which implies the line should be -144.

I'm playing the Cardinals at -149 (59.8%) on MGM, as I have them winning 63.3% of simulations, which implies the line should be -172.

Fading the 7th strikeout here for Kevin Gausman at -128. I make the number -149 (59.8%) for 6 or fewer strikeouts.

I'm fading a sixth strikeout from Yusei Kikuchi at u5.5 (-102) at FanDuel. This number should be -130 in this matchup. The Rangers are a top 10 offense against left-handed pitching on the season.