Prop's Picks (2 Live)
DraftKings. It’s very much an unknown what Dennis Schroder’s role with the Cavs will look like, but I’m going to take a stab on this line. Schroder cleared this total in 10/15 games he’s played this season with 16-24 minutes, despite playing alongside several high usage teammates on the Kings. It’s a more fluid offense on the Cavs, outside of Donovan Mitchell, and one that does lack playmaking depth tonight. His range of outcomes is significant, but I think this is worth a bet.
Caesar’s. Even if he doesn’t see an increase in his 20 minute restriction, this line is still too low for Ty Jerome. He’s coming off consecutive games against the Wolves with 27 and 33 PRA, both in games with a better than 30% usage rate. With the Grizzlies now without Jaren Jackson Jr., amongst others, and their new acquisitions likely not ready for their team debut, Jerome should once again have a ball-dominant role.
DraftKings. Despite averaging 26.5 PRA this season, Payton Pritchard is under this combined line in 19/25 games with both Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, and facing a defense that’s top 15 against spot up shooters. The Rockets rank second in that department, and are stout defensively across the board, ranking fourth. Houston allows the fourth fewest assists and fewest rebounds, while playing at the league’s fourth slowest pace. It’s a tough matchup for volume for virtually anyone, let alone Pritchard who relies on spot up shooting both for points and assists. I’d bet this down to under 24.5.
FanDuel. This is a sneaky spot for Jamal Murray. The All Star has cleared this line in 14 of 20 games, with Nikola Jokic active, when facing a bottom 15 pick and roll defense. The Knicks allow the fourth most points to pick and roll ball-handlers this season. With Mitchell Robinson available tonight, and Josh Hart out, the matchup is harder for Jokic, who still seems to be shaking off rust post-injury. Bet it to over 22.5.
DraftKings. Jordan Goodwin has cleared this line in six of nine games without Devin Booker, and in 64% of his games when he’s played at least 18 minutes. Without both Booker and Jalen Green, Goodwin should retain an 18-24 minute role off the bench. It’s a solid matchup against the Blazers who run small and play at the seventh fastest pace.
DraftKings / Caesar’s. Kelly Oubre has cleared this points line in 12 of 17 full games without Paul George (suspended) this season. He’ll face a Warriors defense that’s below average against spot up shooters and in transition, but ranks 2nd in points allowed to pick and roll ball handlers, which hurts Tyrese Maxey. Joel Embiid has not been officially declared out yet, but he’s also yet to play a back to back this season. Worst case scenario and he does suit up, there’s still plenty of hope as Oubre is over this line in seven of nine with Embiid and without George.
FanDuel. Chet Holmgren is under this line in eight of his last thirteen games he’s played with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein, but without Jalen Williams. Coming off five consecutive misses within that subset, I’m counting on a sixth in a tough spot against the Magic. Orlando has the size to match Chet underneath, and limits rebounds and assists.
FanDuel. This is an A+ spot for Karl-Anthony Towns to clean up on the glass. He’s cleared this line in three straight games, and in 7/12 without Mitchell Robinson, who is being rested tonight. The Wizards allow the most rebounds per game both overall and specifically to centers. Towns has an insane 84 rebound chances over his last three games, as he’s clearly looking to produce on the glass despite a dip in his scoring.
Caesar’s. This is a brutal matchup for Jalen Duren, The first-time All Star will go toe-to-toe with Nikola Jokic, who is built back up to 30 minutes post-injury, and seems poised to take on his normal workload. Jokic (and Jonas Valanciunas) will camp out in the paint defensively and make life difficult for Duren around the basket and on the glass. Plus, Jokic is fourth in the NBA in fouls drawn per game (6.6) and Duren is in the 5th percentile of all players in fouls per game. A lot would have to go right (no foul trouble, cooperative gamescript, strong performance in a below average matchup) for Duren to clear this line. I’d bet this down to under 28.5.
Caesar’s. Ivica Zubac has remained under this combined line in 13 of his last 17 games. He’ll have the unenviable task of facing Joel Embiid tonight, who looks to be his MVP-caliber self of late. Coinciding with Embiid’s resurgence, the 76ers are allowing the fifth fewest PRA to opposing centers over the last 15 games. No James Harden tonight, but that should hurt big Zu, who averages 3.5 less points per 36 minutes without his pick-and-roll running mate on the court.
DraftKings at -117. I’ll bite on this Ty Jerome line - we obviously only have one game to go off of, but the point guard was featured significantly in his first game coming off injury. In 20 minutes, Jerome put up 20 points and 6 assists on a 33% usage rate. Jaren Jackson Jr. will return tonight, but this is a Grizzlies team desperate for perimeter playmaking without Ja Morant available. The Timberwolves allow the most points to opposing pick and roll ball-handlers, and with Jackson Jr. back, Jerome’s assist appeal increases.
DraftKings. Jabari Smith Jr. has cleared this rebounding line in 12/15 games against teams in the bottom 10 of rebounds allowed, of which the Pacers rank 29th. Plus, no Kevin Durant with Reed Sheppard replacing him as a starter, should spell more opportunities for Smith. I’d bet this at over 7.5 for plus odds.
FanDuel. Going to hop on this Ryan Kalkbrenner line, even with a little juice. Since coming back from injury (and ceding his starting spot to Moussa Diabete), Kalkbrenner has still cleared this points line in nine of 12 games. It’s an A+ matchup against the Pelicans who allow the second most at rim points, the fourth most assists at the rim, and the fifth most points to centers. As an alternative, I’d also bet this at over 10.5 points plus rebounds.