Prop's Picks (7 Live)
DraftKings at -130. Stephon Castle has cleared this rebound line in 13 of 14 full games he’s played this season. Even with Victor Wembanyama returning to play limited minutes tonight, Castle should continue to crash the boards from the wing. The Thunder are league average in rebounds allowed (53.5 is 15th most), and I expect Castle to come out aggressive in the NBA Cup semifinals.
DraftKings. This line is too low for Brandon Williams, even in his role off the bench. Williams is averaging 14.9 combined points plus assists in just 21.6 minutes per game. Even off the bench, he should still see 20-24 minutes tonight, especially as D’Angelo Russell is out. Great matchup too.
DraftKings. This should be a nice spot for Coby White, who has cleared this line in five of seven games. The Bulls will be without both Ayo Donsunmu and Kevin Huerter in the backcourt, which should bump White’s usage even more. The Hornets struggle defensively on the perimeter, and White should benefit both as a pick and roll imitator, and on the fastbreak.
DraftKings. Back to the Jaylon Tyson well we go. The sophomore has cleared this line in eleven of fourteen games when playing at least 24 minutes, and 8/9 without Jarrett Allen. With Allen and Sam Merrill remaining out, Tyson should continue to see a strong minutes floor tonight. It’s a soft matchup against the Wizards (for everyone on the Cavaliers), and one that should be played at a breakneck pace, with both teams in the top ten of tempo.
FanDuel. While it’s looking like Mike Evans will return, I still like Chris Godwin to reel in four catches. With Evans sliding in on the outside, opposite the struggling Emeka Egbuka, I expect Godwin to assume the majority of the snaps in the slot - and that’s where the Falcons have been burned of late. Atlanta has allowed 22 receptions out of the slot the last three weeks, coinciding with Dee Alford assuming that role in coverage (18 receptions have been in his coverage, per PFF). With Evans back in the fold, Godwin’s 4.7 average depth of target on his seven targets last week is likely to translate over. And with Cade Otton doubtful, I do like Godwin to serve as a security blanket.
DraftKings. After a slow start to his season, Derrick White has come on strong of late, clearing this line in ten of his last 14 games. Playing second fiddle to Jaylen Brown, I expect White’s counting stats to continue on this upward trajectory over the course of the season - his 23% usage rate is easily the highest of his Celtics tenure. He gets a solid matchup against the Bucks tonight - Milwaukee has struggled to defend perimeter ball-handlers all season. The Bucks have specifically struggled defending the three, which is where White should thrive as a shooter and facilitator. I’d bet this to over 24.5.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper is averaging 17.4 points plus assists this season, clearing this line in 9/12 full games he’s played. His usage since returning from injury has bumped upwards, with at least a 25% over the last six games. With Victor Wembanyama still sidelined, and Stephon Castle shaking off some rust from his own injury, I’m expecting another high usage effort from Harper, in his standard 20-24 minutes (with upside for more). The Lakers have struggled against ball-handling guards of late, and I like this game to have some decent pace to it.
Caesar’s. Royce O’Neale has provided his typical three-and-D presence to the Suns this season. Averaging 16.2 points plus rebounds per game, he’s cleared this line in 18 of 24 games. Devin Booker’s status is up in the air, but regardless of whether he plays, I do like O’Neale tonight. The Thunder’s elite defense takes away the pick and roll and forces the action outside - OKC allows spot up shooting at the fourth highest rate, and that’s O’Neale’s main function in the Suns offense. Any over against the Thunder can be scary, but O’Neale should be needed on the floor tonight.