Prop's Picks (7 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
FanDuel. This is a sky high line, but one that Zach Edey has been clearing regularly of late. He has at least 15 rebounds in five of his last six games, with the one exception being a six-minute outing against the Nuggets. His rotation is up to 30 minutes per game, pending foul trouble, and he’s been a menace on both the offensive and defensive glass. He grabbed 19 rebounds against the Clippers earlier this season, and was strong on the glass against Ivica Zubac last year as well.
DraftKings. I’m going to keep on beating the Jaylon Tyson drum. The sophomore wing has continued to produce when given the opportunity: he’s cleared this line in nine of 12 games when playing at least 24 minutes. The Cavs will be without Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and Sam Merrill tonight, meaning Tyson should once again have a safe minutes floor. It’s an ideal matchup against the Spurs who allow a lot of secondary action (27th in spot up points allowed). I’d bet this to over 20.5.
Jalen Suggs has not cleared this line with any regularity this season - he’s under in 5/9 when he plays between 26 and 34 minutes. Lately, the Magic have finally seen Desmond Bane emerge as a high usage scoring threat, and Anthony Black has strung some solid outings together off the bench. Plus, Paolo Banchero returns tonight in a limited capacity, giving the Magic their go-to option back.
B365 at +105. Despite it not working out on Thanksgiving, I’m once again fading a linebacker on his tackles prop against the Cowboys. Alex Anzalone is under this line in ten of 12 games this season. Jack Campbell has been the more efficient tackler for the Lions both against the run (6.1 tackles per game compared to Anzalone’s 3.6). And the Lions running man coverage at the league’s highest rate should translate to more targets for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, versus Jake Ferguson and the running backs - the latter group more likely to be in Anzalone’s tackle radius. I’d bet this to -145.
FanDuel. Good on Amon-Ra St. Brown for giving it a go tonight, but this is now too low of a line for Jameson Williams. The speedster is over this line in five of his last seven games. Without tight-end Sam LaPorta over the last three games, Williams has seen his average depth of target lessen, as the Lions look for different ways to get him involved. Even if St. Brown is a full go, the Lions game planned this week for Williams to be their top pass catcher, and I’d expect some designed plays to get him the ball in space. Plus, in what should be a shootout, I like the matchup against the Cowboys secondary.
DraftKings. Jake Ferguson is under this line in 7/12 games this season, including 5/8 when both Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens are active. In those games with both receivers, Ferguson’s average depth of target is a paltry 4.9 yards - 76% of his targets in those contests were 10 air yards or shorter. The Lions run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Ferguson sees his target rate and yards per route run drop against man (while Pickens and Lamb both crush man coverage from a volume and efficiency standpoint). I’m ok with this line down to under 15.5 yards.
DraftKings. Deandre Ayton has cleared this line in 10 of the last 15 full games he’s played. No Luka Doncic available tonight - Ayton is 4/4 on this line without Luka. Now, none of those games were with LeBron James, but I don’t expect to command nearly the shot/scoring volume of Doncic. And if anything, LeBron’s presence adds another ball-handler in the pick and roll, which should benefit Ayton in this matchup. The Raptors struggle defending roll-men, allowing the ninth most points to the playtype. The Raptors do a great job of limiting transition, and I expect Ayton to be featured heavily in the half court offense, especially as Toronto will be without Jakob Poeltl tonight.
DraftKings. Marvin Bagley has 20+ points + rebounds over his last three games. With Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert all out tonight, Bagley should once again be in for a solid role. The Celtics allow the eighth most combined points and rebounds to opposing centers this season. Bagley should have success on the offensive glass as well - the Celtics allow the second highest offensive rebound rate.