The Vikings’ slumbering offense emerged from hibernation last Sunday, socking the Commanders with 31 points. Can they do it again, given no TDs in the past 25 possessions on the road? Let’s say Minnesota reaches the low 20s. Well, Dallas scores at a 32.6-point clip at home, with a staggering offensive output of 431 yards per. Better yet, hard-to-guard WR CeeDee Lamb has been cleared from concussion protocol. The Vikes are fond of — not to mention effective at — blitzing. Bring it on, says Dak Prescott, whose team has taken three in a row SU in the seres. The QB is especially adept at handling pressure.
No way a game involving the Vikings should earn this high a total. QB J.J. McCarthy showed flashes of improvement last Sunday in an otherwise dreadful season. Am skeptical that he can deliver a sequel. Minnesota's defense has been just short of heroic during the offensive malaise. It held four foes to between 19 and 27 points when the offense was pretty much three-and-out, then tossed a shutout at Washington in the latest outing. Dallas games can evolve into shootouts, but few Cowboys opponents have been as imbalanced toward the defense as Minnesota.
The Colts might cover but, with Philip Rivers poised to start at QB despite carrying more rust than an antique car garaged for decades, it's hard to envision Indy scoring much. They probably will overwork RB Jonathan Taylor, yet he has tailed off the past three weeks after an MVP-like performance for the season's first half. The Seahawks have yielded just nine points in the latest two games. Indy's defense has been dreadful of late. However, if Taylor's carries keep the clock moving, Seattle might not find enough snaps to score a lot.
Carolina finds itself in the rare air of a playoff quest in December. Here’s hoping the Panthers spent their bye week prepping for the stretch run and not celebrating their ambush of the L.A. Rams. QB Bryce Young might be sensing some pressure. Here’s the antidote: simply hand off all day to Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, who have collaborated to lift Carolina to a No. 10 rank for rush offense. The Saints’ run defense? Twenty-seventh. On D, Panthers ace CB Jayce Horn looks good to go after injury worries, which should help keep rookie QB Tyler Slough in check. What keeps us up at night? Carolina’s 11 consecutive losses outright as favorites. The bye offered time for therapy to deal with that head-case issue.
How unusual to see Detroit getting spotted this many points. Might not be enough. L.A.'s fourth-rated offense should puncture a defense devastated by injury. It's almost a given that QB Matthew Stafford will bolster his MVP campaign against his former team. The Rams' No. 3-rated defense can spoil the widely accepted plot line of a shootout. Opponents average just 17.5 ppg. Detroit has played decently of late, but this marks its first away game in a month.
Green Bay is on a four-game SU roll and getting healther, wth a full complement of WRs and RB Josh Jacobs likely to play. On the surface, it's weird for a team on a 10-game SU heater heading into a home game as an underdog. Yet Denver is not exactly overpowering foes. Its stellar defense relies heavily on man-to-man coverage, which plays right into QB Jordan's Love hands. He excels against it. The Broncos' sackmeisters might be left wanting, given that Green Bay has allowed just 18 sacks. It's Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons that Denver and QB Bo Nix should be worried about.
QB Justin Herbert heroically soldiered through a Monday night win with a cast impeding his broken left hand. It’s a hurried turn-around to a Sunday matinee, but L.A. is programmed to slog through another grinder against historically the league’s least grinding team. At 1-4 SU in their last five, the high-and-mighty Chiefs will finally kick-start a postseason run, right? That seems to be the public’s perception, based on this too-large line. Pass drops have plagued K.C., and predicted temperatures in the teens are hardly conducive to cure that problem. Neither is going against a defense with three fewer TD passes allowed than interceptions. Six of the Chargers’ last eight games have gone their way SU. They have covered three in a row against the Chiefs.
Houston wins a lot, to be sure, but not by hefty margins. The biggest during its current five-game streak is 10. With RB Nick Chubb scratched, the Texans could lack the offensive oomph to cover a double-digit spread. As for Arizona's offense, it has barely missed a beat with Jacoby Brissett filling in for Kyler Murray. The prob is on defense. If the Cardinals can shore it up, an encouraging trend will continue. They are 5-1 ATS on the road.
With QB Lamar Jackson besieged by nagging injuries, Baltimore's offense has slumped to a No. 19 rating. The Ravens have not exceeded 23 points in their last four outings. Scratch out the first four games of the season, all high-scoring. This is a different team. Certainly, Cincy's shoddy defense and Joe Burrows being back behind center after an injury rehab are elements to create a pile of points. But it takes two to tango, and the Ravens seem unlikely to engage in a shootout as long as Jackson is limping around.
Any spread over a touchdown wth Cleveland involved catches the attention. If not for Houston, the Browns' defense wound reign over the league. Mix in some bitterly cold weather with stiff winds, and the scales tilt further toward the visitors. QB Shedeur Sanders played collegiately in wintry Colorado, whereas counterpart Caleb Wllliams is a SoCal kid. The Bears have not laid this many points at home in seven seasons. Seems a tad too much.
Low as it might seem, this total is higher than it's been in several seasons. It is not high enough. Army has picked up the pace on offense, with a No. 67 ranking for snaps per game. Navy has picked up the scoring pace and forged a No. 31 ranking with 32 ppg. Midshipman QB Blake Horvath airs it out 12 times a game and is hitting on 62% with nine TDs. The rivals might not have quite entered the 21st century for offense but have booked a departure out of the 20th. Unless the coaches go scared conservative on play-calling, this matchup should easily find the 40s in points.
Justin Herbert, who broke his non-throwing hand last Sunday, intends to play. Playing well, given the constant harassment he has undergone this season, is another matter. Herbert has amassed more pressures and hits than any passer in the league. If he releases the ball earlier than usual to protect the hand, incompletions — and perhaps interceptions — could follow. Eagles stellar DT Jalen Carter is shelved with an injury, but L.A.'s shaky offensive line remains outmanned. Philly’s offense has hit the skids, with just 62 points tallied in the past four weeks. However, the Eagles should not require many scores here. Under coach Nick Sirianni, in projected close games (i.e., with spreads of three or fewer), the Eagles have covered 13 of 15 times. Whoa.
Four SU wins in a row and receiving 4-plus points? Sounds like a good deal on Houston. The Texans' defense is supreme for points and yards allowed, while Kansas City's offense, though still formidable, no longer intimidates. Unders are 9-3 in Texans' games, which suggests a low-scoring affair. The line has inched up from 3.5 at many books, leaping the significant margin of four points. Stir in weather that should dip into the low 20s, and a moderate score looms that improves the chances of an underdog covering.
Hate to use the ”bingo card” cliche, but did anyone have Chicago on theirs as the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed at this stage of the season? Didn't think so. The offense tops the league in big plays, and it wields the second-ranked rush attack. Fourth best in minutes of possession, it can enhance the chances for a cover by keeping the Packers’ offense shivering on the sideline. Green Bay’s ace run defender, D-tackle Devonte Wyatt, is done for the season. The overrated Packers have spotted seven other foes at least this many points in 2025. They have covered once. Here we have a team with the shiniest record in its conference receiving a touchdown. Go figure.
The Dolphins are a fish out of water in cold weather, having dropped seven in a row SU when the thermometer read 45 or lower at kickoff. Projected high on Sunday: 42 degrees. There are more substantive reasons to side with the Jets. They’ve won three of the last five SU, with setbacks to current top AFC seed New England and perennial bad boy Baltimore. In ATS terms, they are 4-1 in friendly confines this season and 5-1 in the latest half-dozen as underdogs. It would advance the Jets’ cause to pick off their first pass of the season, which would help snap Tua Tagovailoa’s perfect record against them.