Let's start with Seattle's No. 1 league ranking in defense, yet this game draws a higher-than-average total. L.A. owns the most prolific offense, but it has slumped in recent weeks. Plus, in conference title matchups, the side with the top defense has downed the best offense's team outright in four straight. As stellar as Rams QB Matt Stafford has been, his kyptonite is pressure, and the Seahawks' D turns up the heat on QBs. On the flip side, QB Sam Darnold has performed well below the league norm since Week 11. There will be no handoffs to injured RB Zach Charbonnet. Seattle's OTs are so banged up that three missed practice this week. Lastly, the Under has ruled in 10 of the last 14 faceoffs.
The theme this week is that crafty Broncos coach Sean Payton will concoct a game plan to get the most out of fill-in QB Jarrett Stidham. What cannot be ignored is that he last threw a game pass two seasons ago and Denver cannot count on its run attack. New England has doled out just 3.4 yards per carry in the past three outings. For the season, the Patriots allowed 18.8 ppg, fourth fewest, as they have gotten healthier down the stretch. Denver's defense is even stingier with an 18.7 ppg yield and ranks first for yards per snap. QB Drake Maye is dealing with fumble-its, forcing the Pats to lean on their D. Temperatures in the teens is another hurdle facing the offenses.
Indiana allows 11.1 ppg, second fewest in FBS. Miami grants 14.0 ppg, fifth lowest. The defense also rate highly for sacks, with Miami No. 1 and Indiana tied for second. If these are not ingredients enough for a defense-dominated game, consider that Miami's massive D-line should be able to control the Hoosiers' modestly sized O-line. Unders have done well with these teams, with both 4-2 below the total in their last six outings. Indiana's affection for long, clock-eating drives clinches this pick.
Props to anyone who grabbed the original Under of 51.5. As the weather forecast grew clearer, the number quickly plummeted by three points. Still, it's worth the risk. The wind chill is expected to make it feel like single digits, and gusts are predicted that can foul up passing and placekicking. Chicago prefers to run the ball, thus protecting the sometime erratic QB Caleb Williams, and the Rams might mimic the Bears by calling more carries because, well, they hail from tropical SoCal and completing passes could prove challenging. Three of Chicago's last four regular season games generated 34, 32 (in regulation) and 35 points. The elements hint at another outcome beneath this total.
The most impactful injury this weekend might be to Texans WR Nico Collins (concussion). Houston is left with an unimposing group of pass-catchers. And if QB C.J. Stroud continues to have the shakes, which nearly poisoned the Texans in their wild-card win, points will be hard to come by versus the league’s 10th-rated defense. Houston’s defense has no peer, but its one shortcoming is corralling scrambling QBs, a category in which it ranks last. Wouldn’t you know that the Pats’ Drake Maye compiled more runs off scrambles than anyone and ranked third in yards gained. In the divisional set of postseason games, Houston stands 0-6 SU. That’s a cross to bear against a foe that owns a decent lifetime record in this round.
The first meeting ended 17-13. (The total was 42.5.) The rematch two week ago wound up 13-3. Will the third time be the charm for points-starved followers of the rivalry? Probably not. San Fran's season-long injury woes continued with the loss of TE George Kittle, who caught a remarkable 83 percent of his targeted passes. Seattle QB Sam Darnold, whose playoff history is spotty, must fight through an oblique ailment. The Seahawks' defense is first-class while the offense regressed during the season's back half. This might come across as a modest total, given the 49ers' fluid offense. But with the absence of Kittle and the Seahawks' D dominating in the previous clashes, it's a tad high.
Josh Allen is certainly da man, but is he Superman? OK, the Bills’ colors (red, blue) match the Man of Steel’s outfit. We just don’t see Allen carrying Buffalo on his shoulders while dealing with foot, knee and finger injuries. Especially with an injury-wracked WR corps. Especially against a monster defense with 68 sacks. Especially versus a D that shuts down rushing attacks, having ranked second for yards allowed. QB Bo Nix may be unnerving at times, but his threat to run is real. Buffalo’s rush defense is a polar opposite with its No. 31 rating, and coach Sean Payton knows Jacksonville averaged 6.7 yards per carry last week — and might have ousted the Bills had it too often eschewed the ground game.
The return of WR DK Metcalf from a potentially disastrous two-game suspension gives us pause. But of the four units (offense/defense), how many are elite? Yep, just one. The Texans permitted the fewest yards. They amassed 19 interceptions, creating a plus-17 edge in turnovers. Their pass rushers, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, teamed up for 29.5 sacks. While QB Aaron Rodgers has been crafty enough to lift Pittsburgh over lesser defenses, reduced arm strength and mobility could be exposed by this magnificent D — even with Metcalf out of football jail. A nine-game SU streak alone speaks volumes. Add in the fact that Houston's only setbacks since the bye was to top seeds Denver and Seattle, and the momentum rests with the guests.
Since Justin Herbert broke his left hand, he has soldiered through four games. The total points scored in three were 38 (in regulation), 39 and 36. The Dallas game produced 51 with a team ranked on No. 2 offense and No. 30 on defense. The Chargers have leaned on their D with Herbert restricted. It yielded just five yards per pass this season, third lowest in the league. Overall, L.A.'s defense is fifth best, with New England's three slots behind. For points permitted, the Patriots are fourth stingiest, the Chargers ninth. While the Pats can conoct big gains with QB Derek Maye's arm, this has all the indredients of a low-to-moderate score.
This number keeps drifting up, apparently in part because of the half-dozen "questionables" listed by San Fran. That is a concern, yet the Eagles’ offense has not been motoring enough to warrant this big of a spot. During the latter half of the season, it ranked among the least potent. And, among the banged-up 49ers, the most valuable among them -- OT Trent Williams -- is trending toward playing. The Niners' playoff legacy cannot be ignored. They reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago, losing to Kansas City in overtime, and the NFC finals each of the two previous years. They can certainly stay within a touchdown margin.
The Jags are better in most respects. They are hotter, having swept eight in a row outright. And — dare we say it? — the quarterback gap is marginal. No doubt the Bills’ Allen has shined in January. Still, he has lost more (six) than won (five) ATS. Trevor Lawrence is on a tear, with 15 TD tosses against one pick in the past six games. Factor in the Bills’ inefficiency against the run — a dreadful 5.1 yards per carry allowance — and Jax should score more than enough to offset whatever magic Allen conjures up. As a bonus, PK Cam Little, with the two longest field goals ever, can hit from the parking lot.
Amnesia helps here. Forget that Indiana was recently the losingest program in FBS. These Hoosiers are the best team this season, and it's not debatable. They have not lost a fumble since their opener and have committed just eight turnovers. Only one team has been assessed fewer penalty yards. They lead everyone in third-down conversion success. They have dropped just a half-dozen passes. They amassed twice as many sacks as their opponents. Their TD advantage: a staggering 76-13. If such overwhelming evidence is not enough, they beat Oregon 30-20 in Eugene. Wish the hook would go away, but we are fine with laying 3.5.
What happens when a powerful offense clashes with a powerful defense? In this case, the D prevails. Miami has yielded a microscopic 9.7 ppg during its six-game win streak. While QB Trinidad Chambliss is a major headache for any defense, the Hurricanes can contain him. They have notched a dozen sacks in the playoffs. The 'Canes offense won't knock anyone's socks off, but QB Carson Beck is playing error-free, with no picks in the postseason. Ole Miss loses two position coaches to LSU this week. On the surface, that is repairable, but their departure and the near-departures of both coordinators is an unwanted distraction at crunch time.
The presence of four-loss Illinois State in the FCS finals has delivered a double-digit spread. While the Redbirds have impressed, they are dealing with their fifth straight playoff game away from home and seventh in the last eight. The travel could take its toll. Montana State is well-rounded, ranking eighth in scoring offense and defense in FCS. The Bobcats wield an average points margin of 20 per game. Only twice have their wins come by fewer than this number. These championship games can get out of hand. Prior to last year's three-point thriller, the margin were 22, 24 and 28 points. We might have another here.
Lamar Jackson has been flummoxed in visits to the Iron City. In four starts, he has thrown twice as many interceptions (six) as TD passes (three) while suffering 18 sacks. Dealing with injuries, he has endured his worst NFL season. His clearance to play has been headline news, which has obscurred a major Steelers development. Pass rush demon TJ Watt is poised to return from an injury layoff. WR DK Metcalf did QB Aaron Rodgers and teammates no favors by getting a two-game suspension, perhaps the costlest short-term sit-down in league annals. Here is counting on A-Rod to find solutions in an inspired performance that could mark his farewell. The hook matters here. It could come in handy in the event of a narrow margin.