Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Dayton recoved nicely from its defeat in the A-10 championship game to VCU. The Flyers blasted Bradley in their NIT opener. Their defense has locked in, having last allowed as much as 70 points a dozen games ago. The adjusted defensive efficiency ranking is 32nd in D-1. Credit to UNCW for a road win over Yale to start the NIT, but the Seahawks trailed by 14 points in the second half. Dayton loaded up its pre-conference schedule by playing Cincinnati, BYU, Virginia, Florida State, Marquette and Georgetown. The Seahawks' toughest non-league foe? Probably Kent State. These teams on different levels deserve a larger spread.
UConn's strength is its depth, but the Huskies' deep roster will be comprised in the NCAA Tournament opener. Starter Silas Demery and key reserve Jaylin Stewart will be held out with injuries. Furman might have finished sixth in the Southern Conference before winning the league tourney, yet the Paladins have luxuriated in NCAA upsets. As a No. 13 seed, Furman took down Virginia three years ago. Though the Huskies are a threat to claim another crown, something seems amiss with this squad. It is vulnerable to an ATS defeat.
A moderate points total was probable even before Monday's big news. Now, with Alabama suspending No. 2 scorer Aden Holloway (18 ppg) following his drug-related arrest, this number seems almost unattainable. Hofstra plays turtle-like, as reflected by the Pride's 313th rating for possessons per game. Partly as a result, it yields 66 ppg, 18th fewest in Divsion 1. The NCAA Tournament is guard-oriented, and Hofstra could maintain a degree of pace control with CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis and conference Freshman of the Year Preston Edmead. A spread bet -- now at +11.5 -- is worth considering, but the safer option given Holloway's almost certain absence is an Under.
Time for the hot Lakers to cool off. L.A. plays its third road game in four nights, and its terrific trio all are listed as questionable. LeBron James wants to play in his former home but banged his elbow Wednesday. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves also have pushed through ailments to improve the Lakers' playoff status, so they might sit, too. For Miami, Bam Abedayo has been dealing with a sore calf but is listed as probable. While L.A. might not withhold all of its heavy scorers, with the team plane not landing until nearly dawn Thursday from Houston, a plausible scenario is one or two taking a pass, which would open the door for a Miami W.
Arkansas deployed a seven-man rotation through the grind of an SEC Tournament that it won, with one game going to overtime. The Razorbacks are a threat to reach the Sweet 16, at least, but might need time to find their legs after an exhausting weekend. Hawai'i is no slouch defensively, with a No. 43 adjusted efficiency rating, and can keep a lid on the scoring. Earlier this season, the Rainbow Warriors threw a scare into other Power Five members, losing by a point to Oregon and by seven to Arizona State. They enter on a wave of six outright wins in the last seven games, capped by an upset of top seed UC-Irvine in the Big West finals.
Troy has proven it can hang with college hoops' big boys. In a remarkable 48-hour stretch, it downed San Diego State in two overtimes, then fell to Southern Cal in three OTs. Every team hit the century mark in scoring. The Trojans wield an impressive plus-seven points differential. Nebraska was the talk of the sport after opening 20-0 straight-up, then regressed over the last dozen games, winning only half. Of the Cornhuskers' six Big Ten victims down the stretch, the highest finisher in league standings was eighth. Most were bottom-feeders. They enter the NCAA Tournament with minimal momentum.
The NIT punished St. Joseph's by sending the Hawks cross-country for a super-late 11 p.m. (ET) opener. The Rams take the air out of the ball on offense, having ranked 361st in possessions per game, which takes unfamiliar opponents some gettng used to. The home side recently ran off eight straight wins outright before stumbling in two of the last three, but the opponents were Mountain West upper-crust members Boise State and San Dego State. While common opponent scores can be misleading, this one is not: Virginia Tech beat the Rams by two points and the Hawks by 35.
Sam Houston loaded up its pre-CUSA schedule with an array of oopponents from more prominent leagues, and the Bearkats accounted themselves well. They should hang tough wth more talented New Mexico. The Lobos were disappointed to have been left out of the NCAA Tournament and, according to reports, voted to accept the NIT bid with less than overwhelming enthusiasm. Plus, coach Eric Olen has been linked to a few vacancies and could be distracted. Both teams play quickly on offense, so the 'Kats should have no trouble adapting to the Lobos' style.
Navy's games average 141 points, Wake Forest's 138 -- and those figures are bumped up by a total of six overtimes played. Yet somehow this game has drawn a total several points higher than both numbers. Few teams operate as slow offensively as the Midshipmen, who stand 327th for possessons per game in Division 1. The visitors' likely strategy is to shorten the game with lengthy possessions. Playing lately wth confidence, having won 14 in a row outright before a conference tourney loss, they can dictate the pace and produce a modest final score.
Once South Alabama sheds the rust in only its second game since Feb. 27, the Jaguars should play decently enough to stay within this whopping spread. The Jags have known for more than a week that they were NIT-bound, giving them plenty of practice time to prepare. The second-place finsher in the Sun Belt has covered in six of the last nine outings. Auburn was counting on an NCAA Tournament bid and might be disconsolate after getting left out. The Tigers own a pedestrian defensive effcency rating, which opens the door to enough points for the Jags.
This total mght be justified if high-speed Oklahoma State were facing a foe that also embraces the fast break. But Davidson prefers a dawdling pace. It averaged among the fewest possessions per outing in Division 1 with a rank of 355th. Also, its defensive efficiency ranking is a laudable 89th. The Wildcats' last three games wound up with 121, 112 (n regulation) and 128 points. It would take quite a leap for Davidson to move into the mid-150s here.
Nerves occasionally contribute to relatively low scores in the First Four games involving mid-majors. Solid defense on both sides makes this matchup especally attractive for an Under. Both teams hold opponents in the 60s on average -- 67 for UMBC, 68 for Howard. While Howard leans up-tempo on offense, the Retrievers take their sweet time, as evidenced by a 291st rating for possessons per game. Wth UMBC seeingly the slightly better team, it has a better chance of controlling the pace.
These are among the slowest-paced squads in Division 1. Liberty ranks near the bottom at 342nd for possessons per game -- and George Mason is below the Flames at 352nd. The Patriots give up 67 ppg, 30th fewest in the land, whle Liberty is fairly stingy itself at 70 ppg. Three of Mason's last four outings have ended in the 130s, generally aganst hgher-scoring opponents than Liberty.