Mike's Picks (5 Live)
It's not uncommon for a QB to bypass a bowl game. In this unusual case, both starters are sitting out. For USF, Byrum Brown is serving as an unofficial assistant coach as he mulls over his playing future. Replacement Gaston Moore makes his first career start, with the same number of interceptions and TD passes (three) this season in reserve. For Old Dominion, freshman Quinn Henicle, who has tossed 15 passes, steps in for the transferring Colton Joseph. The Monarchs allow a fraction less than 20 ppg, while the Bulls’ yield is a bit higher because opponents have trailed by large margins throughout the year. The defenses should do their part to deliver an Under.
The Vikings’ slumbering offense emerged from hibernation last Sunday, socking the Commanders with 31 points. Can they do it again, given no TDs in the past 25 possessions on the road? Let’s say Minnesota reaches the low 20s. Well, Dallas scores at a 32.6-point clip at home, with a staggering offensive output of 431 yards per. Better yet, hard-to-guard WR CeeDee Lamb has been cleared from concussion protocol. The Vikes are fond of — not to mention effective at — blitzing. Bring it on, says Dak Prescott, whose team has taken three in a row SU in the seres. The QB is especially adept at handling pressure.
No way a game involving the Vikings should earn this high a total. QB J.J. McCarthy showed flashes of improvement last Sunday in an otherwise dreadful season. Am skeptical that he can deliver a sequel. Minnesota's defense has been just short of heroic during the offensive malaise. It held four foes to between 19 and 27 points when the offense was pretty much three-and-out, then tossed a shutout at Washington in the latest outing. Dallas games can evolve into shootouts, but few Cowboys opponents have been as imbalanced toward the defense as Minnesota.
The Colts might cover but, with Philip Rivers poised to start at QB despite carrying more rust than an antique car garaged for decades, it's hard to envision Indy scoring much. They probably will overwork RB Jonathan Taylor, yet he has tailed off the past three weeks after an MVP-like performance for the season's first half. The Seahawks have yielded just nine points in the latest two games. Indy's defense has been dreadful of late. However, if Taylor's carries keep the clock moving, Seattle might not find enough snaps to score a lot.
Carolina finds itself in the rare air of a playoff quest in December. Here’s hoping the Panthers spent their bye week prepping for the stretch run and not celebrating their ambush of the L.A. Rams. QB Bryce Young might be sensing some pressure. Here’s the antidote: simply hand off all day to Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, who have collaborated to lift Carolina to a No. 10 rank for rush offense. The Saints’ run defense? Twenty-seventh. On D, Panthers ace CB Jayce Horn looks good to go after injury worries, which should help keep rookie QB Tyler Slough in check. What keeps us up at night? Carolina’s 11 consecutive losses outright as favorites. The bye offered time for therapy to deal with that head-case issue.
How unusual to see Detroit getting spotted this many points. Might not be enough. L.A.'s fourth-rated offense should puncture a defense devastated by injury. It's almost a given that QB Matthew Stafford will bolster his MVP campaign against his former team. The Rams' No. 3-rated defense can spoil the widely accepted plot line of a shootout. Opponents average just 17.5 ppg. Detroit has played decently of late, but this marks its first away game in a month.
Green Bay is on a four-game SU roll and getting healther, wth a full complement of WRs and RB Josh Jacobs likely to play. On the surface, it's weird for a team on a 10-game SU heater heading into a home game as an underdog. Yet Denver is not exactly overpowering foes. Its stellar defense relies heavily on man-to-man coverage, which plays right into QB Jordan's Love hands. He excels against it. The Broncos' sackmeisters might be left wanting, given that Green Bay has allowed just 18 sacks. It's Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons that Denver and QB Bo Nix should be worried about.
QB Justin Herbert heroically soldiered through a Monday night win with a cast impeding his broken left hand. It’s a hurried turn-around to a Sunday matinee, but L.A. is programmed to slog through another grinder against historically the league’s least grinding team. At 1-4 SU in their last five, the high-and-mighty Chiefs will finally kick-start a postseason run, right? That seems to be the public’s perception, based on this too-large line. Pass drops have plagued K.C., and predicted temperatures in the teens are hardly conducive to cure that problem. Neither is going against a defense with three fewer TD passes allowed than interceptions. Six of the Chargers’ last eight games have gone their way SU. They have covered three in a row against the Chiefs.
Houston wins a lot, to be sure, but not by hefty margins. The biggest during its current five-game streak is 10. With RB Nick Chubb scratched, the Texans could lack the offensive oomph to cover a double-digit spread. As for Arizona's offense, it has barely missed a beat with Jacoby Brissett filling in for Kyler Murray. The prob is on defense. If the Cardinals can shore it up, an encouraging trend will continue. They are 5-1 ATS on the road.
With QB Lamar Jackson besieged by nagging injuries, Baltimore's offense has slumped to a No. 19 rating. The Ravens have not exceeded 23 points in their last four outings. Scratch out the first four games of the season, all high-scoring. This is a different team. Certainly, Cincy's shoddy defense and Joe Burrows being back behind center after an injury rehab are elements to create a pile of points. But it takes two to tango, and the Ravens seem unlikely to engage in a shootout as long as Jackson is limping around.