Mike's Picks (10 Live)
The significant injury to Green Bay pass rush extraordinaire Micah Parsons is largely responsible for a total in the upper half of the 40s. Numerous injuries on the offenses suggest it's too high. For the Packers, top RB Josh Jacobs and dangerous WR Christian Watson are questionable. For the Bears, the two main WRs, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze, have been shelved. The squads combined for 49 points in their recent clash, but the yardage totals were not excessive. Chilly weather and winter winds could contrbute to an Under.
Statistically, there is lttle separating these fine teams. Keep in mind that Miami carved out its lofty rankings against an ACC schedule, while A&M's numbers were etched in the more formidable SEC. Home-field advantage is usually negligible. Perhaps not so in this case, where the Aggies' 12th Man is hardly a myth. These fans can be disruptive. They won't impede the A&M offense, which scored at least 31 points in the seven games prior to a season-closing clunker against Texas. Ace RB Le'Veon Bell is expected to return after rehabbing an injury through the back half of the season.
Western Michigan took its lumps with season-opening setbacks to a gauntlet of opponents -- Michigan State, North Texas (in OT), Illinois. That set up the Broncos to blow through their MAC schedule, losing just once SU. Their calling card is defense. The unit yields just 18.2 ppg, 14th best in FBS, and the yardage allowance is 15th. On offense, QB Broc Lowry is a dual threat, with six rushing and no passing TDs in the past four games -- all victories. Kennesaw State has lived a charmed life this season after winning twice outright a year ago. Fairy tales usually end, and the Owls' wondrous journey should close out with a loss.
Let's go with continuity here. Missouri State is missing coach Ryan Beard, off to Coastal Carolina -- and replaced by OC Nick Petrino (son of Bobby), who has yet to serve as a head coach. The Bears also bid adieu to five impactful transfers, notably WR Tristian Gardner, who tied for the team lead for TD receptions. Arkansas State is pretty much impact, and veteran coach Butch Jones has won five of his last six bowls SU. Though both offenses are potent, they tend to produce more points in home games. Neither side enjoys the luxury here, and the Red Wolves' defense is marginally superior.
It's not uncommon for a QB to bypass a bowl game. In this unusual case, both starters are sitting out. For USF, Byrum Brown is serving as an unofficial assistant coach as he mulls over his playing future. Replacement Gaston Moore makes his first career start, with the same number of interceptions and TD passes (three) this season in reserve. For Old Dominion, freshman Quinn Henicle, who has tossed 15 passes, steps in for the transferring Colton Joseph. The Monarchs allow a fraction less than 20 ppg, while the Bulls’ yield is a bit higher because opponents have trailed by large margins throughout the year. The defenses should do their part to deliver an Under.