Brady's Picks (4 Live)
Credit to Ben Johnson for a remarkable job as Chicago's new head coach but it defies the numbers, how this team continues to find the win column. The defense is awful against the pass and the run - but they continue to force turnovers and it is not likely that will continue week in and week out. In 4 recent wins, they have barely gotten there against the Giants, Bengals, Steelers, and Vikings. Green Bay is a different animal - and especially at home in what will be frigid temperatures. The Bears are getting tons of action here and yet it appears the line is headed to 7 in favor of the Packers. Green Bay hammers home a win here by double-digits.
This looks like a buy low-sell high situation to me with people believing the Buccaneers are back and the Saints continuing to decline. Actually NO has covered 2 of its last 3 games including an outright win over Carolina. They have owned this series when playing in Tampa and will be seeking same-season revenge for a 23-3 loss at home to the Buccaneers a little over a month ago. Tampa Bay has been outgained in 9 straight games and the Saints defense has been playing especially well lately. When I crunch the numbers, I get the Buccaneers favored by 4. 8.5 is too many for a Tampa team that remains injured and will likely be without Tristan Wirfs and Mike Evans.
Minnesota was previously a favorite in this game and I agree. The number has now flipped with the confirmation that Daniels is expected to play. Truly, a favorite of 1 or 2 points either way is not very significant - 3 is when it gets serious and I don't expect it to go there. Last week was Washington's SuperBowl, off a bye, having lost 6-straight. Daniels has only played a handful of games this whole season. His return will not change this team much. Off a shutout, the Vikings will be determined to turn it around at home. McCarthy, Jefferson, Aaron Jones.. the defense. Everyone should be better for what I believe will be an outright Minnesota win at -2.5 or less.
Understandably so, the Seahawks are seeing the bulk of the action yet it appears the line is headed the other way. I am not crazy about backing the Falcons but notice the recent travel for Seattle. Four of their last 6 games have been on the road and other than a trip to LA, it has been to the other end of the country; DC, Tennessee, and now Atlanta. I believe this line is a bit high based on reputation and the fact that the Seahawks pitched a shutout last week. Atlanta will be ready off a loss. I do believe they could actually catch Seattle sleeping and pull off an outright win. Getting the full 7 or better, I'll take the Falcons.
Buffalo has been Jekyll & Hyde quite a bit this season and overly reliant on Josh Allen. The Steelers should be able to run the ball and open up the passing game for Aaron Rodgers. These teams are actually much closer to one another from a power ratings standpoint than one may realize - because the Bills are perceived as such an electric offense. When I crunch the numbers, I actually get Buffalo as a 2.5 point favorite - getting more than a field goal with the home team Steelers is a big deal in my opinion.
For the second week in a row, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are a road favorite. They got a way with a push last week in Arizona - this week it is in division and they are laying nearly a full touchdown. Lawrence gave the Cardinals plenty of chances last week and I expect more errors from him today against a division opponent who is very familiar with the Jags QB. The Titans have covered both of their games since coming off their bye. This will be the Jaguars fourth road game in five weeks. I'll take the division home dog to keep it close if not win the game outright.
Can the Falcons be trusted as a road favorite? The Jets have started to play with some life and I believe they have a good chance to get an outright win here today. The weather will be a factor and that will be tough for a dome team in Atlanta. Raheem Morris has been awful in his career versus the AFC, whether it be as a head coach or as an assistant. With the majority of the action on the Falcons side and the fact that this line remains at 2.5 - and has not gone to 3, is a sign for me when reading the market. Give me the home dog with the points.
This is the Super Bowl for the Saints. Their season is shot but beating the hated Falcons in front of the home crowd at the SuperDome is a top priority for this team. Kellen Moore has had this team playing hard all season and now they've had an extra week to prepare for this division rival. The Falcons are a mess and Raheem Morris continues to show that he is not built to be a good Head Coach. A focused Saints team is favored for a reason in this one and I'm fine laying anything less than a field goal.
Believe it or not, the Dallas defense is improving. They're getting healthier and better. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense continues to be a problem. The Cowboys running game should have a good day and that will open things up for Prescott, Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson through the air. Getting the hook is a big deal here and I don't mind paying the juice for it - Although, I do believe Dallas has a great chance to win this game outright.
Jacksonville was a favorite play of mine last week and I'll now gladly turn on them here as they go from home underdog winning outright into the role of road favorite. Last week the stock was low on the Jags and high on the Chargers. The roles are now reversed. Stock is low on Arizona and now high on Jacksonville. I make this game a pick 'em, so I'll gladly take the full field goal and bet against Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite.
This game jumped out at me early in the week when I looked at the scheduling spot for the Ravens. Off of a division game in Cleveland with Cincinnati on deck, followed by the Steelers and Bengals again. Big division sandwich here with the lowly Jets sitting in between. Tyron Taylor gives NY a better chance to remain competitive in this game and the team will continue to play hard with jobs on the line. I made the number 10.5 and after crunching the stats, I get Ravens -8. I'll take +13.5 with a short week and a division-heavy schedule ahead for Baltimore.