Brady's Picks (3 Live)
I made this number 4.5 in favor of the Eagles. It opened as low as 5.5 in some shops and is currently up to 7. At popular sportsbooks Draftkings and BetMGM, the Eagles are one of the very most popular bets of the week as far as ticket count. Now we have a home underdog getting a full touchdown in a division game against a team that has been averaging less than 19 points per game over the last six weeks - and if you remove last week's 31-0 blanking of the Raiders, the Eagles are only averaging 16 points over the previous five games. Their weakness on defense is stopping the run and that is what Washington does best. Commanders may win this outright.
I am not alone when saying I was surprised to see Green Bay listed as a favorite. This Denver defense is nearly a polar opposite from last week's Chicago defense that Jordan Love was able to exploit. Not only did the Packers have that very emotional, arch rival matchup last week but they have it again next week in Chicago. This out of conference affair thrown in the middle will be very difficult, especially at altitude for a team that rarely ever travels to the Mile High city. Green Bay has covered the number only two times this season when on the road and out of division. That was against the Steelers defense and the Giants. This is a very different animal. Broncos win outright.
We were successfully on Washington two weeks ago and successfully against them last week. Back on them here in Division, where Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury are at their best. Mariotta will join the rushing attack against this league-worst run-stop unit, who also happens to rank near the bottom in Red Zone Defense and in Penalty Yards. Things are a mess in NY with the interim coach Kafka firing assistants and seemingly lacking direction. As bad as things are in Washington, they are the better team here and are better coached. I actually make them a very small favorite and I expect they win the game outright.
I was surprised to see Houston receiving elite status as a double-digit favorite (This has moved to 10 in many spots). The Texans' offense kept KC in the game last week and it will again here. AZ tends to play very close games and we're getting a bonus here because they were blown out last week by LA. Houston is not the Rams - and they have played 3 extremely high-profile games in a row, beating Buffalo, Indy, and then slaying their dragon, KC last week on the road. This is a big flat spot off of all that and now we're asking them to win by a big margin? I make Houston a 4-6 point favorite. 10 is too many.
I like the Ravens to even the season series here and I recommend grabbing this before it goes to 3. Baltimore has gone 1-2 in its last 3 games, all at home. Now they get to go on the road and leave behind some of that pressure, expectation, and focus on the task at hand, looking to make amends for what was an awful Thanksgiving in losing to these same Bengals - who will be without Tee Higgins. The hopes of making the postseason were dashed last week in Buffalo when the Bengals fell to the Bills. I'm not sure how much is left in the tank for this team. Getting out on the road and letting it rip, Ravens ought to win this handily.
Credit to Ben Johnson for a remarkable job as Chicago's new head coach but it defies the numbers, how this team continues to find the win column. The defense is awful against the pass and the run - but they continue to force turnovers and it is not likely that will continue week in and week out. In 4 recent wins, they have barely gotten there against the Giants, Bengals, Steelers, and Vikings. Green Bay is a different animal - and especially at home in what will be frigid temperatures. The Bears are getting tons of action here and yet it appears the line is headed to 7 in favor of the Packers. Green Bay hammers home a win here by double-digits.
This looks like a buy low-sell high situation to me with people believing the Buccaneers are back and the Saints continuing to decline. Actually NO has covered 2 of its last 3 games including an outright win over Carolina. They have owned this series when playing in Tampa and will be seeking same-season revenge for a 23-3 loss at home to the Buccaneers a little over a month ago. Tampa Bay has been outgained in 9 straight games and the Saints defense has been playing especially well lately. When I crunch the numbers, I get the Buccaneers favored by 4. 8.5 is too many for a Tampa team that remains injured and will likely be without Tristan Wirfs and Mike Evans.
Minnesota was previously a favorite in this game and I agree. The number has now flipped with the confirmation that Daniels is expected to play. Truly, a favorite of 1 or 2 points either way is not very significant - 3 is when it gets serious and I don't expect it to go there. Last week was Washington's SuperBowl, off a bye, having lost 6-straight. Daniels has only played a handful of games this whole season. His return will not change this team much. Off a shutout, the Vikings will be determined to turn it around at home. McCarthy, Jefferson, Aaron Jones.. the defense. Everyone should be better for what I believe will be an outright Minnesota win at -2.5 or less.
Understandably so, the Seahawks are seeing the bulk of the action yet it appears the line is headed the other way. I am not crazy about backing the Falcons but notice the recent travel for Seattle. Four of their last 6 games have been on the road and other than a trip to LA, it has been to the other end of the country; DC, Tennessee, and now Atlanta. I believe this line is a bit high based on reputation and the fact that the Seahawks pitched a shutout last week. Atlanta will be ready off a loss. I do believe they could actually catch Seattle sleeping and pull off an outright win. Getting the full 7 or better, I'll take the Falcons.
Buffalo has been Jekyll & Hyde quite a bit this season and overly reliant on Josh Allen. The Steelers should be able to run the ball and open up the passing game for Aaron Rodgers. These teams are actually much closer to one another from a power ratings standpoint than one may realize - because the Bills are perceived as such an electric offense. When I crunch the numbers, I actually get Buffalo as a 2.5 point favorite - getting more than a field goal with the home team Steelers is a big deal in my opinion.
For the second week in a row, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are a road favorite. They got a way with a push last week in Arizona - this week it is in division and they are laying nearly a full touchdown. Lawrence gave the Cardinals plenty of chances last week and I expect more errors from him today against a division opponent who is very familiar with the Jags QB. The Titans have covered both of their games since coming off their bye. This will be the Jaguars fourth road game in five weeks. I'll take the division home dog to keep it close if not win the game outright.
Can the Falcons be trusted as a road favorite? The Jets have started to play with some life and I believe they have a good chance to get an outright win here today. The weather will be a factor and that will be tough for a dome team in Atlanta. Raheem Morris has been awful in his career versus the AFC, whether it be as a head coach or as an assistant. With the majority of the action on the Falcons side and the fact that this line remains at 2.5 - and has not gone to 3, is a sign for me when reading the market. Give me the home dog with the points.