Buffalo has been Jekyll & Hyde quite a bit this season and overly reliant on Josh Allen. The Steelers should be able to run the ball and open up the passing game for Aaron Rodgers. These teams are actually much closer to one another from a power ratings standpoint than one may realize - because the Bills are perceived as such an electric offense. When I crunch the numbers, I actually get Buffalo as a 2.5 point favorite - getting more than a field goal with the home team Steelers is a big deal in my opinion.

For the second week in a row, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are a road favorite. They got a way with a push last week in Arizona - this week it is in division and they are laying nearly a full touchdown. Lawrence gave the Cardinals plenty of chances last week and I expect more errors from him today against a division opponent who is very familiar with the Jags QB. The Titans have covered both of their games since coming off their bye. This will be the Jaguars fourth road game in five weeks. I'll take the division home dog to keep it close if not win the game outright.

Can the Falcons be trusted as a road favorite? The Jets have started to play with some life and I believe they have a good chance to get an outright win here today. The weather will be a factor and that will be tough for a dome team in Atlanta. Raheem Morris has been awful in his career versus the AFC, whether it be as a head coach or as an assistant. With the majority of the action on the Falcons side and the fact that this line remains at 2.5 - and has not gone to 3, is a sign for me when reading the market. Give me the home dog with the points.

This is the Super Bowl for the Saints. Their season is shot but beating the hated Falcons in front of the home crowd at the SuperDome is a top priority for this team. Kellen Moore has had this team playing hard all season and now they've had an extra week to prepare for this division rival. The Falcons are a mess and Raheem Morris continues to show that he is not built to be a good Head Coach. A focused Saints team is favored for a reason in this one and I'm fine laying anything less than a field goal.

Believe it or not, the Dallas defense is improving. They're getting healthier and better. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense continues to be a problem. The Cowboys running game should have a good day and that will open things up for Prescott, Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson through the air. Getting the hook is a big deal here and I don't mind paying the juice for it - Although, I do believe Dallas has a great chance to win this game outright.

Jacksonville was a favorite play of mine last week and I'll now gladly turn on them here as they go from home underdog winning outright into the role of road favorite. Last week the stock was low on the Jags and high on the Chargers. The roles are now reversed. Stock is low on Arizona and now high on Jacksonville. I make this game a pick 'em, so I'll gladly take the full field goal and bet against Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite.

This game jumped out at me early in the week when I looked at the scheduling spot for the Ravens. Off of a division game in Cleveland with Cincinnati on deck, followed by the Steelers and Bengals again. Big division sandwich here with the lowly Jets sitting in between. Tyron Taylor gives NY a better chance to remain competitive in this game and the team will continue to play hard with jobs on the line. I made the number 10.5 and after crunching the stats, I get Ravens -8. I'll take +13.5 with a short week and a division-heavy schedule ahead for Baltimore.

Tennessee is off of a bye and likely remembers being shutout by this opponent 26-0 earlier this season. Houston needed a minor miracle - or a Jaguars meltdown really, to pull off the win last week. Tennessee might actually get its second win of the season here this week. If not, they'll keep it close. I like the Titans at +6 or better.

I was licking my chops to play the Jaguars this week after their late collapse at Houston combined with the Chargers looking like world beaters on National TV. I thought the line would be much higher but evidently the oddsmakers see this similarly to the way I do. Very much a buy low spot on Jax and sell high on spot on LAC. The offensive line holes are going to catch up with the Chargers as Herbert sees more pressure than any other QB in football. Jags rush the football and win a defensive battle at home.

I made this number -1.5 and when I crunch the numbers, I get -2.5. Getting more than a field goal is something in my opinion - and the market looks like it is headed to 3 at this time. Carolina was embarrassed last week as a favorite. I believe they bounce back here, run the ball, and keep this game close. The Falcons played in London last week and could still be a bit weary from the travel. Field goal game - we'll take the hook.

We successfully went against GBay last week and part of our reasoning was that they were looking ahead to this game. If that is the case, they ought to be plenty focused for this game against a team that beat them twice last season, once coming in the playoffs. I make this number 3.5 in favor of GBay. Philly's defense is not that good and they appear to be playing above what the numbers tell us. They commit a lot of penalties, can't get off the field on 3rd down, and can't pressure the QB. Not a big difference here, laying the points or playing the ML. Either way, it's Go Pack Go.

Unfortunately the injury bug has bitten LA hard and their hopes of going far in the playoffs are over. Without Joe Alt and Rashan Slater, 3rd and 4th string offensive lineman are being asked to protect Justin Herbert - who has become the most pressured QB in the league as a result. The adjustments the Steelers made on defense last week should carry over here. I made the Chargers a 1-point favorite, so getting the full field goal is quite the bargain in my opinion. Finally, this stadium will be overwhelmingly filled with Steelers fans - and that doesn't hurt our cause either.

Both teams are off a bye and neither are very good offensively, so points ought to be precious. Quite simply, Cleveland as a road favorite? Really? Jets players were put on notice when NY "fired" Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The remaining members of this team will respond, knowing that nobody's job is safe - combined with the clear message that this team is headed in a new direction and if you are still on this roster, you are a part of the plan going foward. I believe the home dog shows up and is very competitive and could easily win this outright. As noted earlier, this is an excellent teaser piece to pair with the Texans.

We are getting a discount on the Ravens because of what kind of start they got off to. Now healthy and every game is a back against the wall situation. Minnesota is not very good and they're getting love in the market because they won a division game on the road. Fine, it happens but let's remember, JJ McCarthy threw for just 143 yards and Aaron Jones is banged up at RB. Lamar Jackson has crushed NFC teams in his career. Baltimore has extra rest. 3.5 or 4 is cheap because most of the numbers on the Ravens don't reflect a completely healthy unit. They are also very familiar with the Brian Flores defensive style from when he was on the staff with the Steelers.

The stock could not be much higher on Buffalo after beating KC and it could not be much lower on Miami after being beaten down by the Ravens. It will be hot and humid in Miami, making matters worse for the Bills. Defensively, they are without Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa up front and they are in that bad situation of home dog that won outright, going into the role of road favorite. Dolphins are on extra rest and know their coach is a dead man walking. They show up for him here in a division matchup and stay inside the over-inflated number.