Thomas's Picks (2 Live)
Alabama just got blown out at Florida, but I think it’s a good time to buy low on the Crimson Tide. Alabama struggles against Florida and Tennessee because those two teams kill them on the boards. The Tide are 0-10 in their last 10 games against those two teams. That won’t be a problem on Wednesday because Texas A&M lacks size and is one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC. The Aggies can’t exploit Alabama’s biggest weakness. The Tide have also played a much harder SEC schedule up to this point. Texas A&M’s toughest stretch is coming up with games against Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Arkansas in February. I'll back Bama in a bounce back spot at home. Bet up to -6.5.
This opening line at DK seems off to me. SFA and McNeese are the two top teams in the Southland Conference and extremely close on paper. That showed in the first meeting when McNeese won by two at home, 66-64. I expect another tight game here that comes down to the wire. I make this line a pick and think it moves towards SFA. Try to get +3 or better.
This line feels high, especially with Braden Huff out and Graham Ike not 100%. Gonzaga dismantles most opponents in the WCC but Saint Mary’s is a different story. The Gaels are 4-2 in their last six games against Gonzaga and have covered this number five times over that span. Sometimes past results don’t matter but I look at trends more when the coaches don’t change. Randy Bennett and Mark Few know each other well, so recent results hold more weight. Saint. Mary’s is the top free throw shooting team in the WCC at 81.4 percent, while Gonzaga ranks last at 64.6 percent. That big edge for the Gaels could come into play if the game is competitive late. I'd bet Saint Mary's down to 8.5.
I'm going to jump on this one early because DK is posting 1.5, while other books are at 3.5. I think 3.5 is the right number. This is one of the few times I'm betting on "gut." Having watched UCLA recently, I feel like they are starting to turn the corner. They are 5-1 in their last six games and while home court doesn't always matter in the Big Ten, the Bruins are a perfect 12-0 at Pauley Pavilion. This is also a great spot for UCLA with Indiana traveling after the huge win at home over Purdue. I typically play the ML instead of 1.5 but DK isn't offering it and I think the line goes up. Bet up to 2.5.
I like to back Houston after a rare poor defensive performance. The Cougars allowed Texas Tech to put up 90 points and shoot 41 percent from three-point range. Kelvin Sampson prides himself on having strong defensive teams, so you can bet practices weren’t fun for the Houston players the last few days. Texas Tech actually matches up well with the Cougars. TCU does not. Houston should eat the Horned Frogs alive on the offensive glass, while its ball pressure defense causes havoc against a TCU squad that can be sloppy with the basketball. The Cougars are 6-2 away from home this season and I expect them to bounce back with an emphatic win on Tuesday. I took -5.5 (DK). Bet up to 7.5.
Alabama and Missouri are the two teams I have bet the most the past couple of seasons, so I feel obligated to make a pick on the game. The Tide will be pretty healthy on Tuesday with the expected return of guard Aden Holloway. Holloway wasn't listed on the injury report and is averaging 17.7 points per game. Center Charles Bediako will also be eligible for at least one more game, giving Nate Oats close to a complete roster for one of the few times this season. The other reason I like Alabama is Missouri struggles to guard the three-point line, which is a bad omen when facing the Tide. I bet Alabama -10.5. Play up to 11.5.
It's hard not to like the Penguins with the way their playing right now. Pittsburgh is a stellar 14-7-4 away from home this season and has won three-straight on this road trip. Goalie Stuart Skinner is red-hot, going 6-0-1 with a 1.34 GAA during that span. Vancouver has lost 12 of its last 13 games and is a dismal 5-15-3 at home. Look for the Pens to keep it rolling on Sunday.
I just can't get to 5.5 in this game even with the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. I'm not in the "Patriots are frauds" camp because they faced an easier schedule but the reality is they played two playoff games at home against two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Broncos would have been favored with Bo Nix, and while he's had a really good season, Denver's defense won't be out on Sunday. I think that unit is good enough to cause a couple of turnovers and keep the Broncos in the game. I expect Sean Payton to protect Stidham and try to get this game into the fourth quarter with a shot to win. I'll take the points.
I love this Devils team and they enter Sunday 5-1 in their last six games. Seattle is on the opposite end of the spectrum, losing five of its last six. New Jersey has also dominated this series of late, winning six straight. During that span, the Devils held Seattle to two goals or less each time. I'll back the Devils to win their fourth straight on this road trip.
Texas is just 2-4 in its last six games but the eye test tells me they are playing better overall. Three of those losses came by five points or less. The Horns also have wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt in that span. I bet against Georgia on Tuesday and they hit a shot late against Missouri to beat us. However, I thought Missouri blew that game in the second half. Texas is one of the top free throw shooting teams in CBB and I expect them to kill Georgia on the offensive glass. That should be enough to get the win at home. I played the Texas ML -120 (Bet365). Take the ML or Longhorns on the spread up to -2.5.
Both teams are playing on back-to-back days because of the winter storm this weekend. Lipscomb just got past Stetson at home on Thursday, while FGCU got drilled at Austin Peay without JR Konieczny. Konieczny is the Eagles' leading scorer (15.7) and rebounder (6.3), so he's the one player FGCU can't afford to lose. These two teams met on Jan. 10 with Lipscomb winning by seven on the road, despite Konieczny scoring 26 and grabbing 10 rebounders. Lipscomb is the deeper team and I think they are in better shape to play two games in 24 hours, especially if Konieczny is out again. I laid -5.5 at FanDuel. Bet up to 6.5.
This is a tough spot for the Penguins. I gave out Pittsburgh last night and noted goalie Stuart Skinner was hot. Skinner held Calgary to one goal and is now 6-0-1 in his last seven starts. However, it doesn't look like we'll get a Skinner revenge game in his return to Edmonton. After consecutive starts, the Penguins are expected to use Arturs Silovs in net tonight. Pittsburgh is playing its third straight road game and the Calgary/Edmonton back-to-back is always tough. The Oilers have won eight of the last nine meetings with all the victories coming by 2+ goals. Also, 14 of Edmonton's last 16 wins have been by 2+ goals. I played -1 at BetRivers but would also bet -1.5 for a half unit.
I like the Penguins in this spot. Pittsburgh is 12-7-4 on the road and one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL. That's key here because Calgary has been the league's worst 5-on-5 team in the month of January. Stuart Skinner draws his second straight start in net for the Pens and he's been hot of late, going 5-1-0 with a 1.67 GAA and .931 save percentage in his last six starts. Pittsburgh has won four of its last five road games. I like that trend to continue tonight in Calgary.