With the Detroit Lions injuries have plagued them the entire season. One that has dealt with injuries at different stretches was tight end Sam Laporta. Over his last four games though he seems to be his old self. He has had three games above tonight’s yardage prop, and should have much better success than he did against the Vikings in October. Play his over.

Craig Reynolds has entered the chat. Jahmyr Gibbs will be the clear cut RB1, but Reynolds had 31 rushing and 35 receiving yards vs SF earning a clear role. We are projecting just 25 RB rush attempts and think Reynolds can get 30 to even 40% of those. This Minnesota defense in general limits first down yards and should force some passing positions in early downs.

This is all about the increase in receiving yards. Not only is Aaron Jones having his second best rushing season, but we see a steady increase in receiving yards with 6, 11, 20, 26, 30 the last 5 games. The best way to attack this battered Lions defense right now is through the air. The over was on a 9-5 run until he had 77 last week, time to buy back in.

Minnesota’s defense ranks #3 in DVOA, mostly off the strength of their run defense. The Vikings allow the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game (88.1), and typically force teams to beat them through the air. Since Lions RB David Montgomery went down with an injury Gibbs has been the workhorse, clearing this rushing yards total in B2B games. However, his line seems inflated in this game considering the matchup. Gibbs has gone under this mark in 12/16 games this season. Lions OC Ben Johnson is likely to attack this Vikings secondary more than their top-tier run-stopping unit.

Justin Jefferson has caught at least seven passes in five straight games. In this projected shootout against a suspect Lions' defense, I like Jefferson to receive double-digit targets and make at least seven grabs. In the first meeting with Detroit, Jefferson caught seven of eight targets. The juice is rising fast on this prop. I wouldn't play it above -145.

Home field advantage and a first round bye is up for grabs in this clash of NFC powerhouses. Although both of these explosive offenses are extremely well coached/schemed, this total is just too high. If the line closes at 56.5, it would be the highest game total in 3 years. In the last 20 years, totals of 55 or higher are 48-29 to the Under. Betting an Under in a Lions game is going to take some courage, but the number should not be this high in a game that features a Top 5 DVOA Vikings defense. If we get one slow quarter, this is cashing. 2 Units.

You’ll need 4 tds AND a FG or 3 tds and THREE FGs to beat me. Crossed 28 and now I’ll jump.

The battle between Detroit and Minnesota will be a high-scoring game therefore we're going over 56.5 regardless of the number that looks ridiculous, it's going over. The reason is the Detroit defense, they can't stop anybody including the Packers, the Bills, and the 49ers in three of their last four games. The Vikings are going to score and it's up to Detroit to keep up with the scoring and they will. Detroit has gone over their last four games. Just the over with the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL running the No. 2 offense in the NFL.

Locking in the Lions now with the last of the -2.5s available, a number you absolutely want if you're siding with Detroit on Sunday night. The Lions are banged up and need a bye more than any team in the NFL. The implications of this game are massive, and I'm backing Dan Campbell's crew. Will update this pick Sunday afternoon.

The Lions defense is running on fumes. I generally love them at home but Sam Darnold has had their way with their defense in the best of times. The Vikings have scored 124 points in the last 4 games. Detroit has owned this series from an ATS standpoint but they have one hand tied behind their backs from an injury standpoint and against a foe this deep and good, with a top coaching staff, that will be the difference in the game,

The Vikings' defense allows the second-most yards to receivers. St. Brown went for 112 in the first meeting and has topped 100 yards in three straight games versus Minnesota. In a big game I expect St. Brown to see double-digit targets. High number but I think he goes over 82.5.

B365. Campbell has stayed under this line in 10/16 games this season, including 6/8 in full games with Alex Anzalone (expected to play). The Vikings allow the 10th fewest tackles per game in general, and are league average against LBs specifically.

T.J. Hockenson did not play in the first meeting against Detroit; he should be a big factor in this critical matchup against his former team. The Lions play the most man coverage of any team, and Hockenson destroys man coverage. This is going to be a shootout and Hockenson is a mismatch that Sam Darnold can lean on. Last week against the Lions, who remain depleted defensively, George Kittle caught all eight of his targets for 112 yards.

There is still a -150 available in the market, and that's an easier price to stomach. Still, I don't hate Over 7.5 at plus money. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught all eight of his targets in the first meeting with Minnesota, and he's been targeted 36 times in the past three games. In St. Brown's last three matchups against Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense, he has reeled in eight, seven and 12 catches. I'm expecting a pass-heavy game from the Lions, with St. Brown one of the beneficiaries.

The Vikings' pass defense has been very beatable on the road lately. Jared Goff is coming off three straight games with 303 or more passing yards. With how depleted Detroit's defense is, Goff will have to air it out for the Lions to win. I also like the fact that Jahmyr Gibbs is on the field more and he is such a dangerous receiver.

We know to target the passing game and receivers against the Lions' banged-up defense. Jordan Addison had 66 receiving yards in the first matchup against the Lions this season. The Lions have sustained more injuries on defense since then and are a true pass funnel. In this huge NFC North battle Sunday night, I love both passing games. I like targeting Addison's receiving line in this excellent match-up. I'll likely bet his alt 70+ receiving yards to get plus odds.

Credit to my surrogate Uncle Dave Richard for turning my attention to this play that I absolutely love. This has potential spike week written all over for Jefferson who has routinely torched the Lions defense. Speaking of Detroit their defense has completely imploded in recent weeks and this is a must win game with a large projected total with plenty to play for on both sides. I expect Jefferson to bet the focal points of the gameplan and have a monster performance.

It's not like Goff is a crazy passer in the first place; he's had at least 36 pass attempts in just four games this year -- two were losses and only one was a win by 10-plus points. Goff's been under this prop line in 6 of 7 one-score wins and 6 of 7 wins by 10-plus points. I like those odds. Obviously if you think the Vikings will win handily, this isn't the bet to take, but if you're expecting a competitive game (and a big dose of work for Jahmyr Gibbs), then this is the Goff prop to play.

Jefferson has seven-plus receptions in five straight games. That's pretty cool. He's also notched seven-plus in 6 of his past 8 against the Lions. That's very cool. And in every annual rematch he's had against Detroit in his career he's had a minimum of nine receptions. Wow. Last week, two 49ers receivers had at least seven grabs against Motown, and the week before two Bears receivers had at least the same amount. The game figures to be high scoring, and the Lions defense probably won't have a ton of chances to pressure Sam Darnold. This is an easy bet to take on one of the league's best receivers.

The final regular season game is poised to carry the highest total. That alone makes it a near-automatic Under play, particularly when one team (Minnesota) holds the fourth fewest points per game figure at 18.8. The first meeting did end with 60 points on the board, but the scoring included a rare scoop-and-score. A game with significant stakes often results in some cautious play-calling and heightened emphasis on defense. Though both coaches are disinclined to tighten the reins, at least some clock-burning is likely late if one side leads by two-plus scores.

In their last three games, Detroit has given up 430, 368, and 389 total yards to opposing starting quarterbacks. Darnold combined for 298 yards vs. the Lions in Week 7 and I expect this game to be even more of a wild shootout than the 31-29 final back then. I believe this will be a back and forth game and Minnesota's quarterback will end up with closer to 350 than 250 total yards.

The Vikings have won 9 straight games, covered their last four, and are 14-2 on the season. They lost to the Lions in Week 7 and then lost to the Rams one week later. It's been all wins since then. The Lions only two losses this season came at home. The Lions are 14-2 on the season covering 11 of them. The Lions have the No. 2 offense averaging 410 yards per game and are No. 1 in scoring at 33.3 points a game and the Vikings are No. 4 allowing 18.8 a game. The Lions haven't lost since the Buffalo game 3 weeks ago but I like that game because coach Dan Campbell scratched and clawed his way till the very end. Lions win.

FanDuel. After a run of clearing this line in five straight games, Tim Patrick is coming off two straight games where he failed to catch a pass. I love this as a bounceback spot against the pass funnel that is the Minnesota Vikings defense. The Vikings are allowing the most catches (15 per game) and the second most yards (186) to opposing wideouts. In what should be a back-and-forth offensive focused contest, I like Patrick to clear this line, and would bet it up to o23.5.

This is a pretty big line for a WR2, but it's definitely warranted as we are looking at a shooutout in Detroit on Sunday night. Addison has been averaging 6+ targets over his last 6 games and he goes up against a Lions secondary that continues to get gashed (thanks in large part to injuries). Sam Darnold is slated to pass for 280 yards and a big chunk of that should go to a chunk play specialist in Jordan Addison. Only half of the major books have player props out for this game and the other half likely release them later this afternoon, so keep an eye out if your book has yet to release them.

If Sam Darnold has become a ginger Dan Marino all of a sudden, good for him. I do believe good coaching can change a career. See Trestman, Marc in the ruining category. But winning in Ford Field against future Bears coach Ben Johnson (please, please) for the NFC North title and conference's top seed? I don't think so. Blitz away, Brian Flores. This is the offense designed to abuse that.

Jefferson owned the Lions, even with it was a stable defense. Now that they are running out of players he should really exploit them. They couldn't contain Ricky Piersall. This guy on a fast track in a dome will shred them. Jefferson has 124+ yards in 6 of his last 8 vs the Lions and 7+ catches in 5 straight games this season. He should get ample opportunity to stretch the field here.

The Lions secondary is in tatters and they have allowed 11 passing TDs in the last 5 games (only 2 teams have allowed more). Jefferson has 3 straight games with a TD vs them. Jefferson has a TD in 3 of the last 4 games - with the Vikings passing game taking off - and twice has multi TD games in that span. That's certainly possible here as well.

We all saw what's left of the Lions pass defense and pass rush on Monday night. It ain't pretty. I don't think we're going to find better value on this prop as it populates and I will be playing over 2.5 in alt markets. He has 2 or more TD passes in 6 of last 7 games overall and 6 of 7 on the road and has shredded the NFC North this season - 10 TDs, 294 yds/G, 70.3% completions. I expect a high-volume passing game here. Justin Jefferson goes off vs the Lions. Has a fully healthy group of pass catchers.

I expect a pass-happy game flow and this guy eats up the Vikings. Last 3 games vs them: 8 catches on 8 targets, 112 yards and a TD; 7/10-144 -1; 12/14-106-1. Has a TD in 3 straight games. Dude has a TD in 11 of his last 14 games and always sees a ton of the ball in big spots and this is huge with No 1 seed at stake. Give me this plus money now, please.

This over keeps soaring and the Lions D is wrecked by injuries and the Lions are going to need to move quickly to keep pace. Goff has 2 or more TD passes in 3 of his last 4 vs MIN and 277 passing yards or more in 5 of his last 6 vs them. Not afraid to chuck it around vs Brian Flores blitz packages. Goff has hit this in 5 straight games (16 passing TDs in that span) and 6 in a row at home. If you think they are topping 30 points here, a few TDs are coming through the air.

The Lions defense looked like a major problem against the 49ers but was bailed out by a few bad Brock Purdy passes, which Sam Darnold is certainly susceptible to. Still, I'll stick with them at home laying less than a field goal against basically anyone but the top 2-3 teams in the league. Minnesota isn't quite there and the market agrees, making the Vikings first underdogs than a one-point favorite at home against the Packers last week. Detroit won the first Minnesota game without Aidan Hutchinson and I believe they score enough to win again, especially with the more trustworthy kicker in this one.

The Lions D has major issues and they love tgo play shootouts these days. Lions home games are 11-5 to the over since '23, averaging 56 PPG. Vikings games in the NFCN average 54.2 PPG. These teams produced 60 points in their first meeting. MIN/DET has produced 6 straight overs and 9 of 11. Both QBs are slinging it. Both offenses are fully tuned up for the most part. Lions last 4 games: 74, 51, 90, 65 total points. Vikings have scored 124 points in their last 4 games. Could be like the Bills game in Detroit all over again.