Zack's Past Picks
For four straight games Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers has failed to surpass twenty two yards receiving. Tonight, look for that to change against a Rams team that could not stop Josh Allen and the Bills offense this past Sunday. San Francisco has also had long term success against the LA Rams. With their starting quarterback under center the 49ers have not scored below 23 points in eight straight matchups. Take Samuel over on his yardage receiving prop.
The Providence Friars lost all three games in a late November tournament, and are coming off losing to undefeated Rhode Island. A positive is Bryce Hopkins has contributed sixteen points in both games since his return from injury. On the road in Big East play against DePaul look for the Friars to lean on their trademark defense. After a 7-0 start to the season with an easy schedule, look for DePaul to drop consecutive games. Take Providence
As non-conference play gets closer to conclusion we will see some smaller school in-state matchups. That is on display tonight as Davidson hosts Charlotte. The Wildcats may be 4-0 at home, but have been vulnerable lately. In their last matchup Friday they were nearly upset by lowly Charleston Southern. Look for Charlotte to be the latest to attack a suspect half court defensive team in Davidson. Grab the points.
Penn State had one of the easier run away wins of the season against a ranked opponent. They blew out Purdue to cruise to a ten point victory. Now they will play their first matchup since that victory tonight on the road against a desperate Rutgers team. Rutgers has dropped three straight games, as their talented youth has been challenged. Take Rutgers to respond and end their losing streak with a Big Ten victory.
Tee Higgins knows in the offseason he is going to be one of the top wide receivers looked at in free agency. Tonight is a chance to put his skills in front of a global prime time audience. Going back two seasons ago when Cincinnati traveled to Dallas, it was Higgins that led the Bengals in catches and yards. Wouldn’t be shocked if he does it again tonight, as I expect a similar prime time performance as he had against the Chargers a few weeks back. Take Higgins over.
Since JK Dobbins left with an injury against the Ravens, we have seen the offense take a step back. Earlier this season they scored just ten points against the Chiefs in week four. Ladd McConkey had five catches in the first matchup, but is questionable with a knee and shoulder issue. Expect Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer to fill the late season rolls we saw from them last year when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were out. Don’t mind attacking both props, but like Johnston’s upside more.
There probably was not a team that played well, and still lost last week like the Arizona Cardinals. They controlled the game against Minnesota for almost the entirety, before a collapse in the fourth quarter. I expect a bit of a letdown early on against a Seattle team that defeated them two weeks ago. Additionally, the Seahawks defense limited Arizona to just six points in the win, and scored a defensive touchdown. Grab the points with Seattle.
The Jacksonville Jaguars showed a spark offensively late with Mac Jones at quarterback. The surge was enough to get a backdoor cover at home against the Houston Texans. Tennessee has showed some improvements over the recent weeks, which included a road win over the top team in the division in the Houston Texans. At home though they have yet to cover. Expect that trend to continue against the Jaguars.
Early in a college basketball season team identity can outweigh an opponents overall talent. That’s an angle Saturday morning as Princeton led by Caden Pierce travels to South Carolina to face Furman. The Paladins still have high level talent but lost key pieces from their prior teams including JP Peagues to Auburn. Look for the Tigers to win the key minutes pre-half and the stretch before the seven minute timeout in the second half. Play the Tigers here.
UNLV’s had just two losses on the year, an overtime loss to Syracuse and a loss to tonight’s opponent in Boise State. The Broncos executed at a high level to get the win, including going for it on fourth and goal before the end of the half. They also were able to close out the game with a 14 play drive that ate up the final eight minutes and seven seconds. Expect that level of execution to be difficult to repeat. Grab the points here with UNLV.
One of the shortest road trips of the season lies tonight with Kennesaw State making the short bus drive to Atlanta, Georgia to face Georgia State. The Owls are coming off a three-game tournament in Canada where they had a dip offensively, largely because of the opponents they faced. Look for that to change against a Georgia State team that gives up 78 points per game. In last year’s win over Georgia State, Kennesaw State scored eighty eight points in the victory. Take the slim underdog here.
Typically one does not see a smaller school that struggled lose their top two players and get better. UC Santa Barbara has quietly been an impressive team to start the season with a 6-1 record. This comes after losing Ajay Mitchell to the NBA, and Yohan Traore who transferred to SMU. Their game tonight against UC San Diego may be the most meaningful conference game on the slate to a team. The Gauchos went 0-2 to UC San Diego a season ago, and will showcase their improved play tonight. Take UC Santa Barbara.
With all the Detroit Lions injuries we see an abnormal point spread offering on the Detroit Lions. The covering machines are 9-3 ATS on the season, and an issue for Jordan Love has been his turnover issues against the Lions. He had three fumbles in their first matchup, as well as a pick six. Over their last two matchups he has three interceptions and four fumbles. Additionally, there is spread value on the Lions side based on the market flocking to the Packers stout 19-2 December record under Matt LeFleur since 2019.
There are teams that begin their non-conference play with a deceptive record. Incarnate Word is one of those teams at 4-3, as they have several key talent from last year’s team. Last season they were actually 3-2 to begin the season, and went just 3-15 in Southland conference play. This included two blowout losses to Northwestern State of 97-71, and 81-61. Tail the underdogs here with Northwestern State.
Victor Wembanyama will not play in Thursday’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls. This has already showcased as being a big value angle before as the Spurs defeated the Thunder as ten point underdogs. This is also a reduced spread as the Bulls have played just one game since last Friday’s loss to the Boston Celtics. Take the value here on the Spurs finding that one second half run to pull away from the Bulls on the short number.