Take stability over a 4th stringer.

In examining the San Francisco 49ers, last two months. I discovered that they have not had ANY game where the teams have run a total of 120 plays (the league average is 120-125). In fact, the median number of plays is 115. Put another way, there will be less plays run tonight than you are projecting. This shows up big in pass attempts and completions against the 49ers and thus I’m taking the under.

The good news is that we have an idea of what the Niners will do when running backs get injured (see CMC). It’s next man up. I’m projecting 20.5 running back rush attempts for the Niners tonight. Thus I’ll take the over here.

Kyren Williams essentially gets every single ram rushing touchdown. And with the exception of a mysterious four game stretch in the middle of the season, he has scored in every game. The Rams understand what to do near the goal line and they understand he’s their guy. With such a high total on the board, I project him higher than -145.

Brock Purdy has scored in three of his last six games. And he had 10 rushing attempts in the first meeting against the Rams. With the Niners banged up at RB, I see good value at a +450 price for him to sneak into the end zone.

The rams are 11 and five when their skilled position players are all together. Plus, while the Rams are +156 to make the playoffs…San Francisco is +2000 to win the division… They are essentially eliminated already. Add in a banged up 49er team who has lost three out of four, and I’m taking the points.

Got turned on to this by MBrooks…did my own crunch and I agree. This is a spot where he should get 5+ attempts. He makes 2.

This was a pick we discussed on “Primetime Pregame” (6pm est Cbssports.com.) Alex S. correctly points out that JP was usually effective b Bam last time they met. So I crunched and don’t think he will be as effective this time. Under

When he was traded to the Knicks, I wondered how Towns would fit in and adapt. Thus far, he has been a rebounding machine. Given the fact that Atlanta plays fast and does not really have an excellent array of glass cleaners, I’ll go over.

This is a guy that we spent a lot of time Talking about on my SportsLine show. He’s an underrated commodity who has medians of 12 1/2 points, 13 1/2 rebounds, and 4 1/2 assists.. thus this number is significantly low. There have been nights where he has simply not scored, but Dallas has been pretty forgiving towards opposing big men.

This game is at MSG…not the easiest place to shoot. Both teams are solid defensively. And Michigan is experienced. Dusty May brought some of his crew from FAU..and the guy he didn’t bring now plays for Arkansas…so Michigan will not be surprised and should have a plan.

You may know I have several people who consider themselves members of the Syracuse basketball mafia (tip of cap to Bills mafia. Yeah upstate NY!). The team needs some confidence and should keep their foot down on the gas against a UAlbany team that can’t deal with size.

This prop reminds me a lot of a David Montgomery anytime touchdown prop. I’m not sure why it’s not played more often. I make him over 70% to make 2. So while this number is climbing it’s still good value.

Cincy is sort of a bully team. Since week one, they are 0-7 against teams currently in the playoffs and 4-0 against teams that would not be in the playoffs. And they’re not opposed to starting fast. I don’t think they’ll be losing at halftime and I like the price..

Keenan Allen has been a monster lately. He’s running well over 90% of the routes and is becoming the guy in this new Bears O. Grab it now.