Erik's Past Picks
Isiah Pacheco is hurt. Hunt has the job. Over the last month, the only times Hunt has been under this number is when KC ran 47, 58 plays…which is significantly lower than projected in Super bowl 59. Play his over 10.5 carries.
Yup, it’s Saquon. And the public will love grabbing this. I’m going the other way. KC tackles VERY well in open field and second level and they allowed just one 30 yard run all year (Jerome Ford at the end of a blowout). If this goes up, I’ll play it again double.
I hosted the Early Edge today and was told that this was the play of the month! Based on that information, I did my own crunch and while I’m not as bullish, I certainly really like it at this price. As I know people like to know when more than one expert will make the play, count me in.
Portland is a league best 61 and one ATS and the second night of a back to back. It’s because they don’t have tired stars… Heck, they don’t have stars! But they are playing better and they are at home.
Toronto is playing better having won eight out of 10, part of their success is because they’re playing better defense. KAT played a hard 39 min last night and this number seems a tad high.
Kyrie Irving is no stranger to having to play with great players. And now he Will eventually get to try his hand with AD. This will require Kyrie to score more and put the ball in his hands even more, and that starts tonight.
Rick Pitino has been drilling defense into his team in preparation for this game. I like the full game under And and I really like Marquette to struggle. Add in that Neither team turns the ball over, both teams play good D and neither team is a good free-throw shooting team and this to me is a terrific play.
Is a highly anticipated matchup we’re both teams will stress defense. But more than that neither team turns it over which prohibits easy baskets. Add in that neither team is particularly good from the charity stripe and I’ll go under.
IP runs hard but he doesn’t look right. He's still not even close to back from his injury. I think KHunt gets at least as many carries if not more.
Going over 24 1/2 means that you will either need four touchdowns or three TDs and 2 field goals. That’s asking a lot for teams that will be under pressure and with a KC team that is no longer playing 35-31 games.
And watching the bills against Baltimore, one of the things that stood out to me Was that Josh Allen was clearly the Bills’ best option inside the five. And he is undeniably their best option inside the one. Thus, in anything but a wild nontraditional game script I think Josh Allen will find his way into the end zone on a short run. And there is no way this is a plus money prop on Sunday. Grab now.
Yeah, this has some significant juice at -175, but that gives us an implied percentage of 63%. Yet Smith has done this in every game since Thanksgiving. And Washington plays the zone where Smith gets 46% of target share since Thanksgiving. This number won’t last.
In the two playoff games Daniels has 47 and 48 pass/run attempts. That's an enormous number which should decrease by 15-20%. Without this outlier number of attempts he will be hard pressed to get over this total.
This is the third meeting and familiarity helps the D. Plus pressure is in so teams don’t want to make mistakes early. Add in the fact the Eagles might be carful with a banged up Hurts early and I’ll go under 23.5 in the first half. Nice value price.
Amari Cooper has been quiet but I’m banking on a better game here. He has the ability, the experience and knows the Bal secondary from his days as a Brown. The juice is high but I think the snow helps