Jason's Picks (5 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
The Rockies are not an MLB team and I'm going to keep fading them -1.5 every time they are on the road and especially vs. the NL West. The run differential in those games is out of Little League. Merrill Kelly is pitching well for the D-Backs, who can mash this Rockies staff. Chase Dollander has had his ups and downs and the rookie is likely going to get little run support.
We're paying a slight premium in the first half at 4.5 instead of 3.5, but I still prefer this wager. OKC remains an elite first half team and Denver's slow starts have continued through the postseason. OKC is a +8.8 in the first half in this series, with a ridiculous +17.8 net rating. OKC has the second-best 1st half offensive rating in the second round (BOS) and second best D rating (BOS). These teams playing these halves at a 103.3 pace that greatly suits the deeper and fresher Thunder. DEN starters logged a heavy playoff load and one extra day of rest, finally, probably not enough. OKC may blow more leads, but I project them to build yet another double-digit first half margin.
The Cubs are exceedingly better than the Pale Hose. More than two runs better on most any day they meet. The White Sox have lost 4 of the last 6 on the road on the RL. Love the way the Cubbies are swinging the bats in this series. Canning has been very solid for the Pale Hose but his 4.67 ERA on the road (1.17 at home) could be a problem in this bandbox of a ballpark.
Another absolute beatdown for the Rockies on Fri night. And today they roll out who might be their worst starter, which is really saying something. Zac Gallen hasn't been good for D-Backs but this is an overmatched lineup he is facing. Colorado is now 3-11 on the RL vs NL West teams, with a ridiculous -64 run differential. Rockies are 6-17 on the RL on the road. I'd quite likely play this at -2.5 as well.
Did you know the Orioles are 27-36 at home since June 20 of last year, bottom 4 in MLB? Kyle Gibson has been a trainwreck who is probably cooked and got no spring training as a late signing. Nats are 3-1 vs O's with one close loss. Orioles are batting below .190 with runners in scoring position and are 20th in runs scored since June 20 of last season. O's closer won't be available. Looks like Ryan O'Hearn, one of their three best hitters, tweaked his neck last night. James Wood, a Maryland native, is destroying the Birds this season and Jake Irvin is the kind of soft-tosser who befuddles them.
Jays seem as surprised as anyone that their manager still hasn't been fired, and with 1 win in their last 6 at home, perhaps they are trying to change that fact in their own way. Tigers are a just win baby baseball team that plays with an edge and does al the little things to score one more run than you. Total bullpen missmatch here and managerial missmatch. Tigers aren't 30-15 by accident. Jays rotation was supposed to be the strength of team but flirting with a 5.00 ERA. Still not nearly enough power from a tepid lineup.
JP Sears is a guy we back a lot, especially against a lineup like this that does most of its damage vs righties. Gigantes have just a .291 OBP vs lefties and Sears is a good one. When he gets to pitch without traffic he is especially tricky. This big ballpark will be a godsend for him too compared to SacTown. The A's 13-10 on the RL on the road and the Giants 9-15 on the RL as a favorite.
Grabbing the 1.5 for the best value on the board. Auto fade vs a team deadset on being the worst in MLB history from the owner on down. Rockies are 3-10 on the RL vs the mighty NL West and 6-16 on the RL on the road. Corbin Burnes has it going after a slow start to his D-Backs career.
This has Jalen Brunson written all over it. He won't have to contend with Jayson Tatum's length on switches and won't have another down game after foul trouble got in his head in Game 5. This is his moment and the Knicks have dominated crunch time all series. Even when they fall behind, the Celtics know they can come back and beat them. It's one thing to play one great game without your best player ... but staving off elimination again, and this time on the road, is something else. At this price, I have to take the better fourth-quarter team and the healthier team.
Nats took 2 of 3 vs the O's in WSH already this season. Both teams have major issues but the O's lineup is a joke. The front office insists of batting a hapless fallen prospect 3rd or 4th and Mackenzie Gore is legit. Cade Povich is pitching on heavy extended rest and will likely be off. O's just played 27 innings vs Twins in 27 hours and got swept while scoring in 2 of those 27 innings. The O's are 57-73 since June 20th, with 3rd worst home winning % in MLB since then.