Jason's Picks (7 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
We saw Lamb do whatever he wanted against Philly at Philly. We saw Deebo run wild on them in the slot last week. It's been a weekly issue. Lamb had 11 catches on 16 targets for 191 in the first game. He's way over this total in 5 of the last 7 games and in big games and big spots, he gets fed. Got a ton of targets early in the first meeting between these teams and very likely will again Sunday.
They added a safety at the deadline and they added a LB last week but they aren't curing this issue overnight. We all saw what Kittle did to them last week and Ferguson had his best game of the season at Philly, catching 7 of 10 targets for 91 yards and a TD. He had six catches on eight targets for 77 yards last week.
Ferguson was a big match-up issue for the Eagles a few weeks back at Philly and will be again Sunday. Only two teams have allowed more TDs to TEs than the Eagles this season and Philly allows an opposing passer rating of 123.7 throwing to tight ends, worst in the NFL. Ferguson has a TD in four of the last six and the pay off here is substantially better than Lamb.
He just threw for 3 TDs against this defense, on the road at Philly no less. And we know how much better this Cowboys passing game is at home. He has 3 TDs passes in three of his last four games against the Eagles. Dak's TD passes in his last four home games: 3, 4, 4, 4. And he's facing a secondary that has given up 27 passing TDs, 31st in the NFL. And Dak has all of his weapons in good form. And the Cowboys still don't look very good or effective trying to score the ball on the ground, and the Eagles have been far better defending the run overall, and in the redzone. Dak pads his MVP case here.
... or until it starts opening around -200. But we'll still take it here. He has a rushing TD in 7 of the last 8 games and 9 of the last 12 and this has cashed four games in a row. He did it against Dallas the last time around and they love to run the tush push for him and now it's like from 2.5 yards out and not just the goal line.
Dallas has scored at least 30 points at home in all 6 games at Jerry's World, and topped 38 in 5 straight. Eagles D is reeling some amid a brutal gauntlet of games, and DAL is on extra rest. Even holding Cowboys to 30 might be a tall task. Dak has 3 passing TDs or more in 3 of last 4 at home vs PHI. So can Jalen Hurts get us to 23? Eagles scored 28 vs DAL at home despite being held under 300 yards and running the ball 33 times. Even with heavy run load they can hit big pass plays on this overrated Dallas defense. They combined for 51 at PHI leaving points on table. We can get a FG more Sun.
This is gonna rise through the week as this standalone game approaches. Even facing better versions of this Eagles defense in recent years, here is Cowboys scoring at home in last 4 games vs PHI with Dak: 40, 41, 37, 29. Dallas scoring at home this season: 41, 45, 49, 43, 38, 30. Rolled over 400 yards on Eagles in first meeting. Dak has 20 TD- 2 INT in his last six games and Eagles have no answers for Lamb and Ferguson in the slot. Throw in a potential pick six with Bland and a strong kicking game and factor in Eagles injuries and fatigue (Cowboys playing on extra rest) and I see this game played in over 54 points.
Since making the change at offensive coordinator, the Bills have become more run-centric and Cook gets plenty of action. He has at least 20 touches in the two games with Joe Brady calling plays and coming out of a bye on the road, knowing INTs will kill then and facing the NFL's 28th ranked run defense, I see Cook over 20 touches east. He averages 5 a carry and makes things happen in space in the screen game. I will put this 100+ in alt markets and in some SGPs. Him getting 50 on the ground and through the air doesn't feel like a stretch to me at all. He's hit 100 or more scrimmage yards in three straight games.