Jason's Picks (4 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
The journeyman found his role in Philly when Joel Embiid was out, but also continued to score regularly even with the big man back. Can get very hot shooting the three-ball, and can get to the hole himself as well. He averaged 18.5 in 4 games vs Heat, averaged 19/G in April and has 17+ in 12 of the last 15 games he played (went under on Sun but also was a 30-point win cakewalk where starters let up). Had 22 vs MIA in the last meeting
Philly survived the loss of Joel Embiid and thrived when he returned; In an all-or-nothing scenario, at home, with their giant back, I love them. Heat are bad 4th quarter team, Heat's defense slipped and Heat out of sorts before Tyler Herro returned and again after. I didn't love Bam and Jimmy down the stretch. More to the point, I never got the sense late this version of the Heat thought they could do what they did last year. Sixers 33-18 ATS as favorite; 29-17 w/equal rest while MIA 18-25-1
Another go-to prop for us - Detmers didn't have his A-plus stuff in his second meeting with BSO last time out but still went over his prop. I'm playing this 8+ in alt markets and 10 wouldn't shock me. This Rays lineup has issues right now, they are tied for the 2nd most Ks in the AL vs lefties despite not seeing a ton of good ones and Detmers can go deep in games; they don't baby him. I like his breakout campaign to continue at The Trop
We can argue about who has had the more sluggish start - Aaron Judge or Kevin Gausman. But I am buying the bump with the giant slugger. He owns Gausman throughout his career, the ball carries well in the newly-compressed SkyDome and Judge is overdue for a breakout game. I expect the Yanks to get to Gausman early, taking some of the heat off Judge. Getting plus money for this guy to hit a sac fly against a struggling starter who hasn't look right since spring training seems plenty rich enough to me
Toronto looks like a Frankenstein team yet again with another manager who will get whacked midseason. Vlad and Bichette off to pedestrian starts again, the pen has key injuries and Kevin Gausman ain't pitching like an ace and was backed up in spring training and I smell an IL stint ahead. Middle of Yanks lineup owns him (Soto, Judge and Stanton) and this is a bad ballpark for this guy without his best stuff. used to getting a lot of run support - not anymore
This Rangers lineup has not caught fire yet and Skubal will be tough on them from the left side. TEX is 10th in the AL in OPS vs lefties and this one is nastier than most. Skubal eliminated the free pass in his last outing which really helped. but he's going 6 and throwing over 90 pitches with regularity. Like him in day games as well, where his stuff tends to be even tougher to pick up
Ryan O'Hearn's splits vs righties since finding his form with the O's last spring are ridiculous. He is locked in with 3 straight games with a HR and they O's bats are alive with the weather warming up here, so should be plenty of action around him. O'Hearn has seen Pablo Lopez well and Lopez off to a slow start. I love O'Hearn in this spot getting to stay in lineup again vs righty. Could have had 3 HRs last night. He is scalding everything.
I smell a leadoff double for a kid with true MVP potential. His ABs vs righties have been awesome lately and he loves being the catalyst in the leadoff role. Can get himself in fastball counts with a keen eye and the fact he has some studs hitting behind him in the lineup. Camden Yards plays perfectly to his pull-side power and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he puts another one in the flag court today
Rojas has power, I think the rookie hitting in front him, Andy Pages, will look the part and he is in Corbin's head. Ball has been flying out in LA. Corbin gives up plenty of them - 62 of them in 65 starts over the last 3 seasons. With this lineup he can't get cute on the backend and risk walking guys like Rojas and Taylor and challenging him could be problematic given their history.
Royas is off to a bad start and the Dodgers aren't mauling teams like we thought they would, but Royas owns Corbin and I suspect the skipper leans into these splits tonight. Career .405 average and 1200 OPS vs Corbin, who has been awful, in 37 career ABs. for all his struggles at the plate he does have 4 RBIs in 22 AB. Back end of the LA lineup could do some damage tonight
Corbin is here because of his contract and he's pitching like it. Dodgers won't scuffle like this forever, very tough spot for Corbin on the road and this manager isn't looking for any quick hooks. Corbin is being paid to eat innings whether he has stuff or not and this Dodgers lineup has the capability to jump people early. Freeman coming around with the early doubles and we know Mookie is a leadoff demon I think they get it started early tonight