My favorite play here is alt line over 112.5 (-150). Maybe you don't need it, but I have been skewing that way in these markets all postseason with ample success. Both games in IND soared over this; Pacers play faster and shoot more at home and OKC can follow. Pure desperation from the Pacers should bring more early points. These games tend to settle down after the half. The Pacers averaging 62/first half at home and OKC's first half defensive rating on the road in the playoffs has been below average. OKC averages 59/first half on the road despite only making 3.5 threes. This number is right at the average of OKC on the road and IND at home, but this is no ordinary game.

The Pacers had their shot in Game 4. They will regret that for a long time. OKC getting that road win - and finally covering away from home too - gives me great confidence they can do it again now. OKC going back to its original starting lineup has balanced out their scoring and the Haliburton injury situation is a legit concern for me. Indy's bench can't keep playing Superman role.

We loved it yesterday before the rains came and we love it even more with Skubal on the bump at home in a day game. Tigers can't hit lefties and the Tigers do hit lefties. Detroit keeps rolling.

The Yankees mash leftie at home and Tyler Anderson just got roughed up by the O's over the weekend - the worst team against lefties in MLB. Rodon has been far more good than bad for NY and at some point Aaron Judge will make contact again and the Yankees will start hitting again. Positive regression and all.

The Rangers are 28-9 to the under at home in the first 5, including 5 of the past 6. Patrick Corbin might be the Comeback Player of the Year. KC is 23-12 to the under first 5 on the road. In Kris Bubic's 7 road starts, 6 have featured 7 runs or less.

Casey Mize is top six in MLB with a 1.35 ERA in the first 5 IP of home games. The Tigers mash lefties and Bailey Falter gives up way too many fly balls, and doesn't get any swing and miss. This Pirates lineup is tepid. Detroit is top six in OPS vs LHP at home with a formidable .273/.345/.453 slash line.

Give me the Jesus Luzardo revenge game. All of it. Shut the Fish down in 7 innings in Philly and he's going to make those two brutal starts in late May look like a blip. Of the Phillies last 15 wins vs Miami, 13 are on the RL. MIA is 2-6 on the RL in their last 8 at home. Cal Quantrill, much like his pops, has a career ERA over 5 vs the Phils.

Lucas Giolito looks cooked to me. The Red Sox trading their best hitter - for weak return - at a team when the club was thriving. I don't like it and I especially don't like it vs Logan Gilbert tonight. M's have definitely come back to earth in a big way but they can knock this starter around.

The Thunder have played 11 games at home and they have led 10 of them at the half by 8 points or more. We are not getting off this play now. OKC's defense is ridiculous in the first half at home and they average 62 points in those halves. Their first half home playoff net rating of +31.3 is ridiculous. the Pacers have a first half road +/- of -3.9. They couldn't get past 45 first-half points in the first 2 games at OKC. Their turnovers soar early in games on the road and its going to be nuts in the Thunderdome for Game 5.

NYY bats hit the wall and Aaron Judge is finally slumping and others are no longer hitting way over their heads. Clarke Schmidt has been really good for them with a 2.90 ERA in his last 5 starts. Halos are streaky and slumping again. Soriano has been really good for them on the road with a 3.19 ERA, despite giving up 7 ER in 3 2/3 at BOS. A total of 3 runs or less have been scored in the first 5 innings of 5 of his 8 road starts.

Rockies have not been able to hit in this series and Grant Holmes has been very solid at home for ATL, with a 3.12 ERA. Must-sweep series for the Bravos and, lest you forget, COL is 18-34 on the RL vs the NL and 13-23 as a road dog and 18-38 on RL after a loss. Hard to ignore that kind of futility.

Not buying an O's team with a sub .600 OPS vs lefties can get it done twice in a row. Kikuchi gives them problems in general. they are 10-below .500 vs lefties. Halos have been playing solid ball and I like the to avoid the sweep here. O's have one at home all season and that was vs the Pale Hose.

This was a dead over series in the Bronx and I expect it to carry over here. Carlos Rodon is coming back to earth and got shelled by BoSox last weekend and Yanks did the same to Hunter Dobbins. BoSox are over in 5 of last 7 and Yanks over in 8 of 12. NY lead MLB with an .841 OPS vs RHP on road and BOS is 5th in MLB with .806 OPS vs LHP at home. Boston pen has lots of issues and Yanks dealing with some pen injuries.

The O's are 4-15 vs LHP and Tyler Anderson allowed just 1 ER in 5 IP in a Halos win vs them earlier this season. The O's are a bottom 5 team in home winning percentage over the last calendar year (MLB 9-23 on the RL at home if you prefer to go that way here). They have a .550 OPS vs LHP (almost unfathomable) and are also 30th in SLG vs LHP. Tomo Sugano is a command merchant with a penchant for giving up the longball and summer weather is finally here in Baltimore. He's allowed 7 HR in 34 1/3 at home; that could be a problem Sat afternoon. Halos have been hot lately and it's a fairly deep lineup now.

The Pacers have proven they can play with these guys and especially at home. IND is a bear at home in the first half - their 120.9 offensive rating at home in the playoffs in that half is identical to OKC's. OKC has just a -9.2 net rating on road in first half with major defensive issues allowing 60/half. IND is a +16.1 at home in that spot! IND +8.1 in first half at home in the playoffs and OKC -4.8 on the road. Expect another faster start from Indiana. I took this up to +5.5 in alt markets to make it two possessions in 24 mins to beat me. IND ML in the first half probably worth a sprinkle.