Williams has had 18 or fewer rushes in eight games this year including four Rams losses and three one-score wins. Those are the likely outcomes as the Rams hit the road again and take on an Eagles defense that's seen just four running backs land 19-plus rushes against them this year. Remember, Philadelphia's run defense is really good: 3.5 yards per rush and a slim 4.0% 10-yard rush rate allowed to RBs in its past five games. Losing Nakobe Dean is significant, but the impact of that might be felt more when the Rams throw and look for matchups against Oren Burks. Bet on the Eagles dominating time of possession and building a lead, which in turn will lead to fewer runs for Williams.

In his 15 games, Montgomery's been over this 11 times including 10 wins and one close loss. On the four occasions Montgomery didn't get 11-plus carries he was either hurt or involved in a blowout win three times. The Commanders' run defense isn't good as it has let up 4.5 yards per rush and a 12.9% 10-yard rush rate over its past five. I'd expect the Lions to get back to rushing because of that matchup. I get the concern about Montgomery coming off a knee injury, but after the Lions gave Jahmyr Gibbs 23, 18 and 23 carries, my guess is they'll be more concerned about reducing Gibbs' workload a little bit and give Montgomery, who practiced in full all week his normal reps.

This is the time of year when Mahomes starts using his legs more. In literally half of his 18 playoff games he's been over this line. And we've seen him run during the season, including against these Texans in Week 16. In fact, Houston's allowed a league-most 8.1 yards per rush to quarterbacks if you exclude kneel-downs. Seven QBs have at least 30 yards on the ground against the Texans. And remember, the Chiefs run game is far from a sure thing, so more will be on Mahomes' plate. And if the Texans pass rush continues its havoc from last week, Mahomes will have multiple unscheduled runs to help this over cash in.

In the four games Houston lost by 4 or more points, Mixon's had 14 or fewer attempts three times. One of those games was at Kansas City in Week 16. But the greater trend dates back to 2023 when Bobby Slowik was put in charge of this offense. In 15 losses under Slowik, a running back had 16 or more carries just four times, and all were one-score losses. We know the Chiefs are favored to win by nine-plus. Just three running backs had 16 attempts against the Chiefs this season, none had 17, and one of those three games happened when the Chiefs rested their starters in Week 18!

Excluding Week 18 for obvious reasons, Daniels has 292 or more pass and rush yards in each of his past three and in 4 of his past 5. Tampa Bay's defense is one of the most consistent zone-coverage and blitz-heavy units in the league, meaning Daniels has to either get the ball out quickly or use his mobility to throw downfield or run for yardage. Furthermore, the Bucs run defense is among the best in the NFL in its past five games and the Commanders RBs haven't been as effective as they were earlier this year. More work will fall on Daniels' shoulders. Daniels had 88 rush yards in his first-ever game against the Bucs; it would be amazing if he hit that number here.

Not counting the game he got concussed in, Hurts has been under 28 pass attempts in eight games, all Eagles wins. Just once has he been over this line in a game the Eagles won by two-plus scores. Trends by the Packers defense suggest they'll stick with zone coverage while trying to pressure Hurts. When defenses have done that against Hurts this year, the Eagles have run the ball 54% of the time. That rate jumps to 59% run in their past five games. That's their identity right now. Ultimately, it just feels like Philly is a better team now than they were when they played Green Bay in Week 1, and with Jordan Love's elbow a concern, the Eagles should control the game script.

Nix has been over this prop line in each of his past three and in 5 of his past 7. Buffalo has seen at least 22 completions in each of its past eight games that weren't played in snow storms with 23-plus completions in 6 of those 8. The Bills play a lot of zone coverage and really only move to man-to-man coverage when they're in danger of losing. They also don't blitz very much nor rack up tons of sacks. But they do pressure quickly which Nix's quick trigger can neutralize. In that environment, Nix has completed 68.8% of his passes on a low ADOT in his past four, and that completion rate has actually been high in his past eight games.

McConkey's locked up at least 80 yards in each of his past three & 6 of his past 7. I suspect McConkey will stick in the slot at least 60% of his snaps, which he's done in 6 of his past 7 games with Quentin Johnston on the field with him. That should eliminate either of Houston's outside cornerbacks from covering him. The Texans play a lot of zone coverage and won't necessarily pressure Herbert a lot, which gives McConkey added time to get open with his crisp route skills. And because the Texans run defense has played well lately, Herbert will probably shoulder more work, which means more throwing and more targets for McConkey. I'm fine playing this up to 77.5.

Jefferson has seven-plus receptions in five straight games. That's pretty cool. He's also notched seven-plus in 6 of his past 8 against the Lions. That's very cool. And in every annual rematch he's had against Detroit in his career he's had a minimum of nine receptions. Wow. Last week, two 49ers receivers had at least seven grabs against Motown, and the week before two Bears receivers had at least the same amount. The game figures to be high scoring, and the Lions defense probably won't have a ton of chances to pressure Sam Darnold. This is an easy bet to take on one of the league's best receivers.

It's not like Goff is a crazy passer in the first place; he's had at least 36 pass attempts in just four games this year -- two were losses and only one was a win by 10-plus points. Goff's been under this prop line in 6 of 7 one-score wins and 6 of 7 wins by 10-plus points. I like those odds. Obviously if you think the Vikings will win handily, this isn't the bet to take, but if you're expecting a competitive game (and a big dose of work for Jahmyr Gibbs), then this is the Goff prop to play.

Geno Smith has three incentives that would earn him an additional $6 million in bonus money. He needs 185 passing yards, a completion rate over 69.7% and one more Seahawks win. Smith already has a completion rate over 70%, so as long as he completes a fair amount of short and intermediate throws, and as long as the Rams backups don't wreak havoc, he can get all three without having to throw a lot. Case in point: Even if Smith averages 7.0 yards per attempt this week, which is below his three-year average, he can get over 185 passing yards on just 27 attempts. Once he gets it, and if the Seahawks are up big, he could be benched or just hand off a lot.

McLaughlin has emerged as a staple in the Broncos run game in each of his past four games, and has 40-plus yards in 3 of the 4. Denver appears to tailor its run offense to its opponents' weakness, but the Chiefs have struggled against both runs to the edges and runs between the tackles over their past five. Inside runs have been bad -- 7.3 yards per carry to the Steelers on Christmas and 8.6 to the Browns in Week 15. And they could be playing some backups on defense. McLaughlin has averaged at least 6.0 yards per rush in 3 of his past 4 -- if he gets that average again in a must-win matchup, he'll be over this by seven carries, maybe six.