The Chiefs haven't needed Mahomes a ton this year -- he's had 30 or fewer pass attempts in every game except their overtime shootout with the Colts. We know the Chiefs WR room is dealing with injuries, and Kenneth Walker III should be fresh after a week off. That should lead to conservative game plan for the Chiefs versus a Chargers squad that's made a bunch of mistakes on both sides of the ball. It helps to know only one quarterback has thrown 30-plus times against the Bolts this year (Jacoby Brissett), and that Mahomes has been under this in two blowout wins already in 2026. This could very well be a third.

The Bears run defense lost linebacker T.J. Edwards and lineman Dayo Odeyingbo last week, both big losses. That should make them vulnerable to Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. this week. I'd expect both of those RBs to carry the water for the Falcons offense, especially since the Bears have let up at least 4.2 yards per rush to running backs in 4 of 5 games. The only two games this season where quarterbacks have thrown over 30 passes on Chicago were last week's blowout win by the Packers, and in the Panthers' blowout loss in Week 1. I expect a competitive game between these teams, one in which the Falcons can control the clock with the run.

Daniels has been under this total in two straight games, both competitive. What's stood out to me is a tendency we saw from him in college: When he's pressured, he takes off and runs and doesn't keep his eyes downfield. That's happened at least five times in each of his past two games. The Buccaneers may have rediscovered their run game last week and could try sticking with it against the Steelers. But the thing I like best here is that this is a matchup of two of the top three slowest-pace teams in the league. That's fertile ground for a bunch of unders.

Houston is top-10 in both pass rate and slowest pace of play this year, a delicious combination for a team that just added a new WR who the quarterback already has a relationship with. And that trade happened just in time to face a Jaguars run defense that's tops in the league in yards per rush allowed -- and bottom-10 in yards per attempt allowed. Not a single running back has more than 12 rush attempts against the Jaguars this year, and no Texans RB had more than 14 carries against the Jaguars last year. Marks will see more snaps with David Montgomery sidelined, but he's among the least efficient runners in the league.

The Vikings are the blitz-heaviest, most pass-rush aggressive defenses in the league. I would expect the Saints to counter that with a heavy dose of quick-game passes, particularly since their run game has struggled this year. Shough has a 73.4% completion rate when getting the ball out under 2.5 seconds, so if he throws 32 of those passes he should be over. Of course I'd bank on Shough throwing way more than 32 passes -- he's averaged 45 per game -- and he's had at least 27 completions in each game this year and at least 23 completions in 7 of his past 8 games.

I don't think there's much doubt that Mitchell is among the few Chargers with explosiveness to his game. The offense utilized Mitchell as soon as their third snap from scrimmage last week and gave him a total of 11 touches, often giving him carries to the edges and short targets in the passing game. Both of those types of touches are perfect to lean on against a zone-heavy defense like the Seahawks. It wouldn't surprise me if Mitchell had his second game of the year with 10-plus touches and his third with at least 39 total yards.

It would be surprising if the Derrick Henry revenge game involved a lot of passing from Lamar Jackson. The Titans pass rush isn't great, their secondary leaves a lot to be desired, this should mean some premium efficiency from Jackson, but maybe not so much in terms of passing. History is also on our side: In 14 career games when Jackson has played and Derrick Henry has had 20-plus carries, Jackson has thrown 28 or more times in four of them, including two losses (that would be a shock) and one one-score win. Best of all, if the Ravens blow the Titans out, Jackson might sit in the fourth quarter.

Love the idea of taking 33.5 at plus money over having to lay a little at 32.5. The 49ers pass rush took a significant hit with the loss of Nick Bosa. They'll still get to Brissett at times, but he'll still be able to get passes off in a game where the 49ers figure to build a nice lead. He had over 50 attempts in his lone game against them last year, and the Cardinals have thrown at least 35 times in each of their past three. New coach Mike LaFleur may prefer to run the ball more here, but that scenario won't be an option if the Niners put points up.

We've seen this number crater from 220.5 and I'd play it down to 210.5. Houston's pass defense has been bombarded by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow -- Daniel Jones isn't on their level. He's getting the ball out fast and keeping it short, and he's not quite as effective as he was to start 2025. Maybe that changes, but the Colts receiving group is awfully limited, the Texans pass defense and pass rush is considerably better than what they've showed this far, and this entire game could be controlled by the running backs.

Hard to find this one but I'd take it down to 240.5. Through two weeks Lawrence simply isn't scrambling as much, including last week against a pesky Broncos pass rush. The Patriots are very good up front and can contain Lawrence if he gets frisky. I'll bank on him not getting much on the ground and getting challenged through the air against a stout Pats secondary, leaving him with good but not amazing passing yardage in what amounts to a low-scoring game.

I know the Eagles will want to show off their new offense, but they have spoken about getting better running the ball, and that's easy for them to do this week with their offensive line healthy, Saquon Barkley healthy, and Jalen Hurts is expected to run more too. That should be advantageous versus a Commanders defense that added a total stud in Sonny Styles but surrounded him with some suspect run stoppers, particularly up front. If the Eagles play with a lead, which I expect, Hurts won't be asked to throw a lot and can be eased into the new passing scheme over time, not in Week 1. I'd consider under 28.5 also.

It's tough to envision a game script where the Cardinals get pressure on Herbert. It's even harder to envision Herbert scrambling out of the pocket, particularly when the Cardinals pass rush isn't considered dangerous and the Chargers offensive line is the healthiest its been in over a year. Almost ALL of Herbert's 498 rush yards last year came on scrambles, and about half of his rushing yards came on scrambles when pressured. I doubt the Chargers have the motivation to put their quarterback in harm's way, particularly in what should be a decisive win.

I strongly considered the under on Trevor Lawrence's pass attempts but pivoted to this because Cleveland's defensive backs are still good enough to make some plays on the ball and erase some completions. Lawrence was under this total in 10 of the 17 games he didn't leave early last season, and of the 10, eight were wins. The Browns new coaching staff figures to install a defensive scheme that should still be able to get pressure on the quarterback with those quality corners behind them, but it's the Cleveland offense that might not keep up its end of the bargain and ultimately put the defense in bad spots, leaving the Jaguars with the ability to stay balanced offensively.

It's a new offense for the Steelers but an old one for Aaron Rodgers, who reunited with Mike McCarthy and will probably aim for a conservative, slow-ish paced approach. That should be easy for the Steelers to do against a Falcons team that has arguably the worst pass rush in the league to begin the season and questions on offense. Both factors can put the Steelers in the lead where they can take pressure off of Rodgers and run the ball effectively. For what it's worth, Rodgers was under this in eight games last year with six of them wins including three by 13-plus points. I'd be shocked if the Falcons kept this one close and would consider playing this down to 29.5.

He has the hot hand, but Rhamondre Stevenson's had 15-plus rush attempts in just three games all year! One was a blowout win over the lowly Titans, and the other two were his most recent games when he helped ice the Pats wins against the Texans and Broncos. Stevenson will see a Seahawks run defense that's yielded 3.3 yards per rush allowed and z-e-r-o explosive runs in its past four games. That suggests Stevenson won't be a big factor on the ground which in turn would mean the Pats have no reason to feed him the ball. That would follow how other teams have operated against the Seahawks -- just five running backs in 2025 had more than 14 carries against the NFC Champs.