Stafford's been over this prop line in 4 of his past 6 games overall as well as 4 of his past 6 losses. That's important considering everyone including the oddsmakers thinks the Bills will win this game. Buffalo plays a lot of zone coverage in an attempt to keep their opponents' passing nice and short. The Bills have allowed a 68.5% completion rate on the season to opposing offenses, that's seventh-highest, and that number has been 74.6% over Buffalo's past four games including the blizzard they played in last week. It should make it easy for Stafford to complete a ton of passes.

Hubbard was way over this mark in Week 10 but has since been under in his past two games. His rushing? Downward spiral -- he averaged 14 carries and 50.5 rush yards. His receiving? Barely existent -- forget about those past two games, he has 16 or fewer receiving yards in nine straight. Rookie Jonathon Brooks has played the past two weeks and had more receiving yards last week than Hubbard's had in a game in two months. Everyone's expecting a blowout, and that's the game script that would crush Hubbard the most. Nine RBs have had over 71 total yards against the Eagles this season, but all but two had at least 20 receiving yards as part of the tally.

Thielen had three receptions in his first game back, but he played just 35 snaps and had a 67.5% route rate. Last week he played considerably more -- 50 snaps with a 78% route rate -- and he caught eight balls. Make no mistake, Thielen isn't the same playmaker he was years ago, but he's still savvy enough to find soft spots against zone coverage and become an easy short-area target for Bryce Young. I fully expect Philly to keep playing zone coverage like they have been for the last month-plus, I fully expect Carolina to play from behind, which means more passing, and I fully expect Carolina's run game to struggle. Thielen should catch five passes if not more.

The Giants have allowed 5.0 yards per rush and a 10.7% explosive rush rate to running backs this year, that's bad for them but good for Kamara. And now New York will play without stud D-tackle Dexter Lawrence clogging the A-gaps nor linebacker Bobby Okereke tackling dudes. No doubt, this is a high number for Kamara -- he's gone over this just four times all year, including last week in a little bit of a tougher matchup against the Rams -- but it's by design. Kamara will have a clear path to dominating carries for the Saints, especially with Taysom Hill out and Kendre Miller just coming back from IR.

The Panthers are among the most zone-heavy coverage defenses with the worst pass rush pressure rate on the year with a second-worst 17 sacks on the season. That creates a positive environment for Mayfield to complete short, easy passes like the ones he throws to his running backs. It helps that Mayfield has gone over this total in 5 of his past 6, and I also happen to think the game will be competitive, forcing the Bucs to throw a lot more than some might think.

In the five games Stevenson has 20 or more carries in this year, the Patriots have either won or lost by one score. In the six games he has 13 or fewer carries, the Patriots lost every time including two blowouts. I do think they can hang with the Colts, giving Stevenson the gamescript to have a lot of rushes. It especially helps that nine different running backs have 14 or more rush attempts against the Colts this year, including one in each of their past seven games.

Darnold threw 34 passes last week in what wound up being a competitive OT win at Chicago, but this won't be the same. Like Chicago, Arizona plays a lot of zone coverage. But unlike Chicago, Arizona's pass rush has gotten hot -- they have 14 sacks in their past three games. Darnold's never been a consistent passer when under pressure, and Minnesota's O-line has a large question mark at left tackle. What better way to combat that than by giving Aaron Jones and the Vikings run game a lot of work? With the Vikings defense expected to hammer the Cardinals offense, Darnold won't have to pass a ton. And the best part? He's thrown more than 33 passes in just three games all season.

The Falcons reliably play heavy zone coverage and are awful at pressuring the quarterback. Case in point: They've accumulated 10 sacks, fewest in the NFL. Herbert should be able to pick them apart, especially without a proven run game to work off of with JK Dobbins sidelined. I bet at least five completions are screens or real short horizontal passes used as extended runs to make up for the lack of a run game. Plus there's always a chance the game becomes a shootout, in which case Herbert will go over this mark easily.

Everything the Chargers have done since their bye has led up to this game. Before the bye, the Chargers averaged 23.3 pass attempts per game to be exact. After the bye that number went up to 31.0 pass attempts per game. And this Ravens defense has been great against the run but not so great against the pass, yielding a fifth-worst 7.7 yards per attempt on the season. And that number explodes to 11.2 yards per attempt on throws of 9-plus Air Yards. Herbert's average depth of throw since the bye? 9.2 Air Yards. Herbert's been over 275 pass yards in four of his past five, and the Ravens have let up at least 269 pass yards to 8 of 11 quarterbacks this year.

DeVonta Smith didn't practice all week and seems unlikely for Sunday. On the 62 snaps Goedert's played without Smith on the field this year, he's averaged a ridiculous 38.7% target per route run rate. And we've already seen Goedert get 62 and 90 yards in two road games without Smith on the field. Even go back to last year and Goedert saw a still-solid 18.2% target per route run rate in snaps without Smith. He's obviously a great play if Smith is out, but even if Smith plays, Goedert should be in line to do well, especially against a Rams defense that's let up at least 45 yards to a tight end in six games this year including one in each of its past two.

Conner has 17-plus rush attempts in 6 of 10 games, and Arizona is 5-1 in the games he has 17-plus carries. Arizona is also one of seven offenses that are within a percentage point of a dead-even pass-run ratio, an example of just how much they value the run, and Conner has been their bellcow all season. Against the Seahawks, offenses are averaging 24.1 RB rushes per game, and they've consistently been north of 20 rushes. Four straight RBs have had at least 17 rush attempts against the Seahawks. Tack on Seattle playing at the fourth-highest pass rate in the league and the third-fastest pace, and it should mean the Cardinals own the time of possession, giving them more opportunities to run.