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    Dave Richard
    Dave Richard
    Fantasy Football Guy
    Dave Richard has spent nearly his entire career covering the National Football League. Beginning with NFL.com at the boom of the Internet, Richard was that site's first Fantasy Football writer before transitioning to CBS Sports in 2006. Since then he's crunched the numbers, studied the film, developed tiers and trade charts, previewed every NFL game, talked to the decision makers and earned multiple honors, including induction into the Fantasy (FSWA) Hall of Fame. For Dave Richard media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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    NFL | Washington 35 @ Denver 33 | 09/17 | 8:25 PM UTC

    Javonte Williams UNDER 48.5 Total Rushing Yards -104

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: Williams split snaps almost evenly with Samaje Perine last week, and from what I could tell, Perine looked better. The stats would agree with me: Perine had a higher yards per carry and much better rushing metrics across the board. And if that's not enough, coach Sean Payton again brought up the idea of finding touches for Jaleel McLaughlin, their undrafted rookie RB speedster. So that's another player taking snaps from Williams. The Commanders defense was good last week, rallying to the ball consistently against the Cardinals. This matchup isn't much tougher for them. I'm just not convinced Williams is going to see a hefty dose of carries, nor would he do very well with them if he did.

    NFL | Cleveland 22 @ Pittsburgh 26 | 09/19 | 12:15 AM UTC

    Deshaun Watson OVER 23.5 Total Rushing Yards -115

    LOSS

    ANALYSIS: We're running it back after cashing this last week. Watson's track record, from Houston to Cleveland last year to Cleveland this past preseason, shows that he will run it 5 or 6 times per game. And he did it again last week against the Bengals to the tune of 45 yards and a TD. He'll do it again versus the Steelers minus Cameron Heyward. I'll keep taking this as long as they let me.

    NFL | Green Bay 24 @ Atlanta 25 | 09/17 | 5:00 PM UTC

    Luke Musgrave OVER 32.5 Total Receiving Yards -125

    LOSS

    ANALYSIS: Led the Packers in routes run (24) and lined up all over the formation last week. He had 50 yards, should have had over 100 yards after a Love misfire on a deep target when he was wide open, not to mention a TD when he slipped after the catch on another deep catch. Musgrave will see a Falcons defense that opened the year playing zone coverage over 70% of their snaps. That suggests they fear giving up the big play, which helps those underneath throws connect for Musgrave. The Panthers version of him, Hayden Hurst, came up with 41 yards.

    NFL | Cincinnati 3 @ Cleveland 24 | 09/10 | 5:00 PM UTC

    Deshaun Watson OVER 23.5 Total Rushing Yards -115

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: In Houston he regularly averaged between 5-6 rush attempts per game. In six games last year with the Browns he averaged 6.0 rush attempts and 29.2 rushing yards per game. This very preseason he ran six times of 30 snaps and had 21 yards. Point is, rushing is still a very big part of Watson's game and this matchup isn't anything to fear as far as Watson not having to use his legs.

    NFL | Cincinnati 3 @ Cleveland 24 | 09/10 | 5:00 PM UTC

    Joe Burrow OVER 0.5 Total Passing Interceptions +106

    LOSS

    ANALYSIS: These are Burrow's first meaningful snaps since straining his calf on July 27. He didn't practice between then an August 30th, so a month of preparation was missed. That means he had no more than 12 days to get himself sharp. That's a tough deal, especially when he's about to face a tough Browns defense that's legitimately better than its been in years. That includes quality depth in secondary. I expect Burrow to be rusty, but even if he isn't, he's thrown at least one interception in each of his past four games against the Browns -- when they weren't as talent-rich as they are now.