There aren't many cracks to find in Houston's defense but this is the best shot. Their red-zone defense does not hold a candle to the rest of their defensive metrics, allowing room for a potential Omarion Hampton touchdown. Hampton scored last week against the Cowboys, which doesn't mean much, but it shows that he is the red-zone guy for the Chargers. So to get an RB1 at plus money like this feels like a no brainer. Kimani Vidal also left that game last week with an injury, and even if he does play, it is hard to imagine he will be at 100%. Take the opportunity on Hampton getting the goal line carries again.

It feels like everyone on Houston is in a "buy low" spot after last week's performance. That includes Woody Marks, who didn't play last week but soared over this total in the previous three games. The Chargers' defense is strong but most of that comes from their pass defense. The game plan for Houston should be to attack from the ground where the Chargers are more vulnerable. And if Houston gets a lead, they tend to control the clock the best they can on the ground as well. Regardless of the game script, Woody Marks should play a heavy role. 

Call it a homer pick, but I can't understand a different outcome. The public is overreacting to Georgia's performance against their first two FCS opponents, where they weren't putting up 60 points. One thing we know about Kirby Smart is he is not airing out the playbook for anyone. This will be the first time we see the Bulldogs use their shiny new transfers, as they face off a Tennessee defense without their best two cornerbacks. I think this line should still be where it opened, the steam to Tennessee after playing two weak opponents is giving us great value.

Last year Washington State games averaged 64 points, while North Texas Games averaged 68, so sue me to believe we are on pace for something similar here. Both teams have new quarterbacks but Washington State still aired out the ball 42 times last week and are playing a North Texas secondary that didn't look good last year and is yet to be battle tested this year. North Texas' offense also finds themselves in an air raid system too. The SportsLine Model projects 70 points.

It’s no secret I am low on Miami this season, and that includes Week 1. Miami lost its top five receivers and quarterback, and I’m not ready to back the Carson Beck experience right off the bat. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr is a redshirt freshman but at least he’s been in the system and poses a dual threat. Notre Dame still has two of the best running backs in the country. In the SportsLine Model, we don’t credit Miami with much of a homefield advantage, so we have the 'Canes projected 5 points worse than most sportsbook odds would imply, and Notre Dame as 3 points better than the odds imply. We make this over a touchdown victory for the Fighting Irish.

Give me the home dog in this Pac-12 after dark throwback matchup. Nico Iamaleava is a proven starter at the Power 4 level and is at home. While Utah has promise, Utes QB Devon Dampier is coming from New Mexico. It’s worth taking a chance on the Bruins' quarterback and his higher ceiling, and rely on their defense to force a few turnovers as well. The SportsLine Model makes it a pick ‘em.

SEC teams run all over Clemson, that’s a fact. In three SEC games last year, in which Clemson went 0-3, the opponent averaged 250 rushing yards. They were -160 on the ground. The SportsLine Model has LSU projected to have the edge on the ground once again as well as the slight sack advantage. I understand the excitement around Dabo finally hitting the portal, but none of those players will impact the abysmal run defense enough to completely flip the script Week 1 of the season. I think LSU could win this outright, but I like that I can cover this spread here with a field goal loss too.