Great home team vs bad road team. The Buffs' point differential at home is +15, and they are 7-0 at home this season. They are 15-11 ATS at home since last season and should have no problem against a South Dakota St defense that is not traveling well. The Sportsline Model makes it an 18-point win.

Don't blink! Healthy Joel Embiid who is giving effort. We must capitalize on this while we can. This is a great matchup for him as was Chicago where he put up 31 points. Indiana not only is a bad team on the road (3-11), but super vulnerable to centers. Centers who average at least 18 pts per game average +5.2 more at home vs Indiana. Embiid is 3-0 to this number against the Pacers, averaging 35 points.

It's a long time comin'. Ricky Pearsall has big play potential with a 39 yard run and one 46 yard catch. His production is inconsistent but he has gotten at least 30 snaps in every game. One catch could hit the over. The model makes the number 26.

This line is tight based off one game. But that game was played between Chet Holmgren’s injury and Isaiah Hartenstein’s return, which resulted in a Dallas win. Since Hartenstein’s return, OKC is 7-2 ATS. OKC is also a better shooting team from home and higher volume shooting team. The model makes this a double-digit victory.

This is record vs talent. Penn State is 8-1 this season while Rutgers is 5-4. Oddsmakers know they can get people to pay juice on Rutgers since they have two NBA prospects. But the veteran basketball over at Penn State is clearly more effective. This should be like Penn State -5. The model makes it an 8 point victory for PSU.

Great night to be a receiver. Poor defenses and no run game. Andrei Iosivas should see some open looks tonight with Dallas' defense focused on the two big guns. He has gone over this line his past three games, and should be a solid quick target for Joe Burrow who will be under pressure tonight from the Dallas pass rush. Oddsmakers are implying 2 receptions for the WR, and he averages 13 yards per reception, so I anticipate at least 26 yards.

Oddsmakers have too much faith in this Dallas D. The line is lower because statistically, Dallas is a good pass defense in terms of yards allowed at just 230 per game. But this is because teams haven't needed to pass against Dallas, they are too busy blowing them out. Both of Burrow’s short options (Chase Brown and Andrei Iosivas) are also explosive players who can bust a long YAC reception. Even if CIN wanted to take advantage of the Cowboys weak run defense, they don’t have Joe Mixon anymore and Chase Brown / Khalil Herbert are too small to bully anyone on the ground.

The Pacers aren't scoring on the road. Indiana averaged 119 on the road last season (122 overall) but that is down to just 111 on the road this season (115 overall). The Raptors should also have the rebounding advantage, as the Pacers are down to -4 rebounding differential on road. Since Scottie Barnes returned, the Raptors are +2, +13, +5, +12, +6 and +3 on the boards.

Orlando can't score over their team total. They are shooting just 30% on 3s on the road. And while the Knick's road defense isn't great, they actually play well at home allowing just 31% from deep. The Knicks have had a +8% 3pt differential this year. The Knicks are also out-rebounding teams by +7 at home this season.

Cold weather doesn't call for airborne attack but playing from behind does. I think the Packers will find themselves in an early lead here forcing Tua's hand. Green Bay's defense is tied for 2nd in the league in turnovers (7th in INTs) and have Xavier McKinney (league leader with 7 INTs). Trends of the past tell us that Tua melts down against good teams, and it's not coincidence most are in bad weather.

This isn't a guy to hit three unders in a row. It's been almost an entire season in fact. Romeo Doubs is likely out with a concussion and that should benefit Reed who is still listed as WR1. Josh Jacobs has dominated in recent weeks and MIA’s defense will have to load the box and focus on stopping the run which could lead to more Yards per catch for Reed. The Model has him projected for 62.

The Giants need to convince themselves this is Saquon Barkley light. And while two costly fumbles would typically cause the team to lose trust in you, that shouldn't be the case here. Since taking over as a starter, the over is 4-3, but the misses are just shy of this line while the overs soar over. Dallas run defense started the season horrendously, had 2 weeks of good run defense but have since reverted to their old ways. Outside of Atlanta, everyone is putting up 140+ rushing yards on them.

I'm not saying it'll be a quality 46 yards. But a meaningless 15-yard run well short of the first down to improve field position for a punt, DOES still count. Buy low on D'Andre Swift’s 30 yards on 13 carries last week and his slow start in Chicago overall. He went for 50+ rushing yards in the previous 7 games, and Detroit's YPC allowed are up to 4.3 from last year. The Model has him projected for 58 yards.

This is the right opponent for Anthony Edwards. While he's only 1-3 to the over in last 4 games, he is 3-0 to the over against Houston specifically last season. Other Guards who average 1.5 to 2 average +0.3 more vs Houston on their home court . This was a prop hitting 58% of the time for Edwards last season at home.

Houston will not score enough points. The Model has them projected to shoot under 33% from 3pt range, going up against a team that holds opponents to 34% at home. This is a buy low spot on Minnesota because they are only 2-5 ATS at home but they still have a strong +8 pt differential at home. The Model makes this an 8 point victory for Minnesota.