We're not asking anything new of Nurkic. He finds tremendous success against Minnesota, averaging 3 blocks + steals against them this season and combing for 11 in his two most recent games against them. While Rudy Gobert seems to have him locked down in just about every other category, this seems like a good spot Nurkic can continue to contribute in this series.

I'll be honest I'm stunned we're seeing a line this low and at this price. Malik Beasley's scoring will absolutely be necessary in the absence of Giannis. I expect him to shoot high volume from beyond the arc, where he is shooting 41% this season, and against the Pacers specifically. Beasley is averaging just over 11 points this season and 9 against Indiana. I see no reason he will not see an increase in production tonight. The Sportsline model makes the number 14.

This isn't asking much of Kelly Oubre. He is averaging nearly 18 points the last month. He's had two unders his last two games which is giving us a good buy low spot. He had a slow start and early foul trouble against Miami, and I don't see that happening two games in a row. He averages 16 points on the road and nearly 19 against the Knicks.

We're looking too closely at Evan Mobley's lower home average here. He's hit three unders in his last five, but before that was 6-1 to the over. Other PFs who average around the same amount of points as Mobley are averaging 17 points at home verse Orlando, 4-1 to this over with a 20 point average. The Sportsline Model makes the number 17. I'd even play it at 14.5 for a better price.

Jaime Jaquez has no choice but to step up. While a lot of his props are too inflated, this is a great price for a line he has surpassed his last three games against Chicago. No Jimmy Butler and no Terry Rozier should mean more minutes and ball handling for Jaquez. Chicago also has one of the worst defenses in the league which should result in plenty of assists opportunities.

This line is priced using the wrong logic. This takes a look at his season average and last year's stats against the Kings. However, Steph Curry has had strong road trends this season, specifically recently. He comes into this game 6-2 to this over, averaging 11.8 rebounds and assists in that span. This line has already steamed up from 9.5.

Zion Williamson has learned to bounce back from stinkers. In the second half of the season, he has followed up poor shooting nights with upwards of 36 points. He's had a strong season over trend and a strong past month specifically, going 11-5 to the over averaging almost 25 points. The Sportsline Model makes the number 27.8.

I see little reason to fade this player who has stepped up the last 2 months. Rui Hachimura has eclipsed this number in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging just over 17 points. He found himself as a big playoff presence last year against Denver as well. The Lakers will need his size and athleticism against this big Pelicans lineup, and there is always the chance AD slows down a bit.

It's time to get Chet Holmgren in a get right spot. He is only averaging 15.4 points and assists in his last 9 games, but overall all has favorable home trends. Specifically against the Spurs, his last 2 matchups have been strong, averaging 24.5 points plus assists. Look for the Thunder to keep Chet in through the 4th quarter with Dort out and opportunity for a get right spot.

We have to fade the season trend here, and look at this specific lineup. The Nets will be without Dennis Smith and Dorian Finney-Smith, which should keep Schroder on the court tonight. The over is solid 24-17 when he plays 32+ minutes, and we get a good bounce back spot from his game against Sacramento. There has to be regression up from going 1-12 shooting and 0-6 from three. The model makes the number 27.5.

Guards pick up assists in Miami. Other guards averaging around 4.5-5 assists like Kyrie Irving, are averaging 6 in Miami (6-2 to the over). He has had a strong last month during Ramadan and we are getting him on his last day. At basically even money, I have to take a chance on a line that is below his season average.

Tre Mann is a strong road player. He averages 20% more points on the road than at home. As a starter, he is averaging just over this number in 31 minutes at 11.6. If we see Trae Young tonight, this could be more of a shootout game with less defense. The model makes the number 13.

Take the buy low spot on this. Both teams have been putting up unusually low three point percentage and its time to regress back up. NC State has gotten decently lucky so far with Texas Tech and Marquette, who both were missing wide open threes throughout their matchups. I think their luck could run out with this Duke offense. On the year, both teams average above this number (NC State 149, Duke 145). I think this line should be closer to 145, but because of the recent low three point shooting, we're getting an opportunity to buy low.

This is a great spot for OKC as a whole. The Pelicans are coming off a long road trip, while OKC is looking for revenge after an embarrassing loss to Milwaukee. Josh Giddey specifically has been on an absolute tear the past month, he is 9-1 to this over and that's without any increased minutes. We are getting a lower line here that is more based on his season road splits, but even then this is hitting greater than 50% of the time. The Sportsline Model projects 16 points and assists for Giddey.