Daniel's Picks (4 Live)
Daniel's Past Picks
The Rams fed RB Kyren Williams 29 carries last week in a huge win over the Bills. Williams has gotten 15+ touches in each game this season, and will need to be their workhorse down the stretch. In Week 3 when these teams last met, Williams went for 116 total yards & 3 TD’s on 26 touches. The Niners defense has been solid this season, ranking 3rd in pass yards allowed per game, but San Fran is a bit weaker against the run (12th, allowing 115.9 YPG). The 49ers will remain without LB Dre Greenlaw and Safety Malik Mustapha, while DE Nick Bosa’s status remains in question. The Rams passing attack is lethal, but establishing the run with Williams is crucial for their offense.
Bengals RB Chase Brown has proven to be a true dual-threat back. Brown has cleared this receiving yards total in four straight games, and may be heavily involved once again in this matchup. The Cowboys defense has been terrible, but they do get pressure on opposing QB’s. Dallas now has Micah Parsons back, and the Bengals will be without Tackle Orlando Brown. Joe Burrow is likely to be under duress, and should look to Brown in the pass game when the pressure comes. Brown has big play ability, and has broken off a 15+ yard reception in three straight games. I would consider laddering this up to 60+ receiving yards at +550!
Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle should be the beneficiary of Cooper Rush’s “dink and dunk” passing style. Rush gets the ball out of his hands quicker than any quarterback in the NFL (2.3 seconds on average). He also has a very low average depth of target, opting for check downs and his receivers running short routes. The Cowboys are dealing with offensive line injuries with Guard Zack Martin ruled out, and Tackle Tyler Guyton ‘questionable’ with a knee injury, so Rush may be under duress. Dowdle has gotten 3+ targets in 8/11 games this season, and I would not be surprised to see him get 5-7 targets in this matchup against a porous Bengals defense.
Chiefs lead RB Isiah Pacheco looked healthy and explosive in his first game back from injury last week. Pacheco ran for 44 yards on just 7 carries, and broke off a 34-yarder. The Chiefs should look to attack a Chargers defense that remains without their best tackler, LB Denzel Perryman. The Chargers may look fatigued playing their second straight road game in a tough travel spot. Pacheco needs to get reps in to get back into full game shape before the playoffs. I like Pacheco to prove he is fully back tonight and go for 50+ rush yards.
Chargers TE Will Dissly should be involved in the offense in this matchup against Kansas City. The Chiefs give up a league-worst 78.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Dissly didn’t show up in the box score last week, but that was largely due to an odd game script that caused Justin Herbert to attempt just 23 passes. Dissly soared over this receiving yards total in the two games prior. He should get enough targets tonight to clear 35 yards.
-190 is more juice than I’ll normally pay, but I give the Chiefs a significant advantage in this spot. The Chargers will play their second straight road game, while the Chiefs got extended rest and now have a healthy Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. This Chargers offense struggled without RB JK Dobbins, and their WR1 Ladd McConkey is ‘questionable’, nursing multiple injuries. The Chief’s defense has been shaky as of late, but I’m not sure this version of LA’s limited offense can really take advantage. Patrick Mahomes is 34-5 SU against the AFC West in his career. Chiefs at anything below -200 on the ML seems like value.
The Rams remain in the thick of the NFC West division race and wild card picture. They should continue to throw the kitchen sink at teams. I expect Stafford to be slinging the rock, against a Bills defense that plays a high rate of zone coverage. Stafford’s efficiency numbers increase drastically against zone defense. The Rams may be forced to keep up in a high-scoring affair with Buffalo. I see Stafford throwing for 250+ yards in what should be a competitive game.
I bet on Stafford’s passing yards prop, and I will also take his over on completions. The two are obviously correlated, as Stafford has thrown for 24+ completions in 6/7 games that he also threw for 240+ yards this season. Stafford has one of the most drastic ‘Man Vs. Zone’ splits in the NFL (35% increase in DVOA against zone). The Bills play a high rate of zone coverage, and the Rams will be playing every game down the stretch with their season on the line. This is a big game, and I expect Stafford to try to put the team on his back.
The last time these teams met in Week 12, they played to a grinding 16-6 affair. Both the Seahawks and Cardinals have played to the Under in four of their last five games. This Seahawks secondary is one of the best in league when healthy, behind CBs Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, and FS Julian Love. Seattle will be without RB Kenneth Walker, which could force their offense into ‘3rd and long’ often. Against division foes this year, the Cardinals held the Rams to 10, a much healthier 49ers team to 23, and the Seahawks to 16. I see this being a competitive one-possession game that stays under the total.
The Steelers seem like inflated favorites in this spot. It will be tough to trust Browns QB Jameis Winston after he threw multiple pick-sixes last week. He also threw for 497 passing yards against a very good Broncos secondary. Don’t forget, just two weeks ago the Browns beat the Steelers outright 24-19. I’m not just chalking that game up to the wintry weather conditions that mucked it up. Winston was able to succeed against Pittsburgh’s single high safety scheme. As an underdog of 3 points or more, Winston is 21-11 ATS in his career. The public is way too heavy on Pittsburgh. This line is +6.5 on most other books, so be sure to shop for +7.
The Giants have little left to play for at this point in their disastrous season. With Drew Lock under center, their sole focus should be on developing their young talent. RB Tyrone Tracy has a great matchup in front of him against a Saints rush defense that ranks bottom of the league. Although Tracy has gone under this mark in his last two games, he should see increased volume in a game like this against New Orleans, in which he is unlikely to get scripted out of. In weeks 8, 9 & 10, Tracy had 15+ carries and 60+ rush yards against weak run defenses. He should do so again this week.