This fighter is finally healthy again…

Both Lopes and Garcia are hard-nosed fighters who will not shy away from a brawl. Garcia is an intimidating striker who uses his rangy Muay Thai style and heavy forward pressure effectively. On his seven-fight win streak, Garcia has walked down many of his opponents and broken their spirits early. Skill for skill, Lopes has more high-level tools in his MMA arsenal. He has championship-level experience, granite in his fists and a slick Ju-Jitsu game. Although I give Lopes the technical advantage in several areas, his striking defense still has holes, and I can see Garcia's awkward and aggressive style giving him trouble. If Garcia can defend some grappling exchanges and take Lopes’ punches early, I think Garcia can out-brawl Lopes in a nasty fight.

Although Muhammad is 10 years older than the rising prospect Bonfim, I think Muhammad has more paths to victory. Muhammad has been facing elite competition for the last five years. He uses his pressure boxing style to set up his grinding wrestling attack, which can break his opponents down. Bonfim is an explosive striker who will have a speed advantage early with his kicks and knees. He is also a dangerous Ju-Jitsu player, with a nasty squeeze on his front chokes. Bonfim sports a shiny 19-1 pro record, but his lone loss came against Nicolas Dalby, a fighter known for his work rate and gritty style. Muhammad’s cardio, durability, and experience will help him take over this fight if it gets into the later rounds.

Allen's elite grappling, pressure striking and high-level experience make him a tough matchup. He should be looking to close the distance and take this fight to the floor, where Shahbazyan has had his struggles. Shahbazyan is a powerful kickboxer with six knockout wins in the UFC. His head kicks, hooks and vicious knees make him live for the knockout against any middleweight opponent. Shahbazyan is still just 28 years old and has continued to improve, but I still don't think his grappling defense will be up to par. If Shahbazyan doesn’t land big damage early in this fight, I see him being taken down and overwhelmed by Allen’s grappling.

Mitchell was slated to face bantamweight veteran Victor Henry, but will now fight Luna who steps in on short notice. Mitchell won his first fight after moving down to the 135-pound division, which may be the proper weight class for him. Luna is an exciting 8-0 prospect with great potential at just 21 years old. Luna’s game is aggressive, with knockout power in his hooks and grappling skills to boot. I expect Luna to find success in the UFC, but this is a tough veteran test for him. Mitchell has faced title contenders and champions in his career, and has a very high-level grappling game. Mitchell is 9-3 in the UFC, and will use his experience to pick up the win.

This is a battle between longtime strawweight veterans. Xiong was the champion in the ONE championship fight promotion, sporting an impressive seven title defenses on her polished 19-2 pro record. Following a three-year layoff, ong returned to MMA and picked up a win in Xi 2025. Still, I wonder if she'll be ready for a matchup against a tough opponent like Hill. At 41 years old, Hill doesn't seem to be slowing down much. Her recent losses came against rising strawweight talents, and she's remained competitive even when outmatched. Hill's volume, pressure and hard-nosed style make her a tough out against anybody. She has been much more active than Xiong and has fought against tougher competition, so I'll take a shot on Hill as the underdog.

Henrique is a big fighter for the welterweight division, standing 6-foot-3 with a 79-inch reach, but he is still just 8-1 in his MMA career and hasn't fought since 2024. Ding is 35-9, so he will have a significant experience advantage. Ding's grappling defense needs work, but Henrique isn't looking to submit his opponents. This should give Deng the confidence to stand and trade. Henrique might be the more dangerous fighter early on, but I lean towards Ding for his experience and durability.

Simple logic for my play on the under here- Two excellent defenses, and two mastermind coaches that are elite game managers. The Seahawks defense was #1 in DVOA this season, allowing a league low 17.1 PPG. The Patriots offense scored just 21.5 PPG against top-10 defenses this year. Both QBs can be turnover-prone when pressured, and both defensive lines can dial up the heat. Sam Darnold and Seattle’s offense has thrived using play-action schemes, but the Patriots defense led the NFL in EPA per play against it. This total feels inflated because it’s the Super Bowl. If this were a regular season game, the number might be more like 43.5.

Cooper Kupp has recorded 4+ receptions in 11/12 career playoff games! His lone miss was in a 27-9 blowout win over the Vikings in 2024, in which his talents were not required. Kupp is a playoff vet who won the 2021 Super Bowl MVP. His experience could be key for Sam Darnold, with Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez likely matching up heavily against Seattle’s star WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kupp caught 5 receptions on 5 targets against the 49ers, and 4 on 6 targets against the Rams thus far in the postseason. At plus odds, there is great value on Kupp getting that 4th catch for us.

Unders burned me in yesterday’s divisional round games, but I still feel they were the right plays despite the results. We saw the Patriots play to a low scoring 16-3 game agains the Chargers. The Texans-Steelers matchup also went under this 41 mark, in a game that was 7-6 entering the 4th quarter before Houston’s defensive TDs blew it open. The Texans will be without star WR1 Nico Collins, and the Patriots defensive line has been playing great ball with DE Milton Williams healthy again. 17-13 final score prediction.

I’m taking Drake Maye to go over on his rushing yards and rush attempts. Maye led all QBs in the NFL in scramble yards, and should be on the move against a Texans defensive front that ranked 3rd in pressure rate this season. As a result of that constant QB pressure, they also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs.

Drake Maye has used his wheels effectively all season, and continued to do so in the first round of the playoffs. Maye was under duress against the Chargers, and ran 10 times for 66 yards. He will now face the Texans vaunted pass rush, and will likely be forced to take off. Houston can get after the quarterback, but they were bottom 10 in the league defending against QB scrambles. Maye has 7+ rush attempts in 9 games this season. New England’s O-line surrendered 52 sacks, 4th most in the NFL. I expect Maye to trust his instincts, and look to alleviate Houston’s pressure with his own rushing attack. I like the over on Maye’s rush attempts and rushing yards props.

Sam Darnold’s oblique injury has me very suspicious. If his ability to throw downfield is compromised, San Fran can look to stack the box and stop Seattle’s run game. If Drew Lock comes into this game, us Niners bettors will be jumping for joy to have a +7 ticket in our pockets. Despite all the 49ers injuries, I still think they can keep this within a score, or even pull off the upset. Kyle Shanahan and Mike MacDonald know each other extremely well, and played to scores of 17-13 and 13-3 in their first two meetings this season. I like the Under and the 49ers catching a TD on the spread.

Everyone knows it's on Josh Allen to be the superhero and will the Bills to victory. Against the Jaguars elite run defense, Allen scored twice and had 11 rush attempts, including a tush-push that went for 10 yards where Allen refused to go down. With a limited WR group that struggles to create separation, I expect Allen to use his legs in the red zone. Considering he's scored 16 TDs this season, I feel obligated to bet this prop at -115.

The Broncos were 10-7 to the under this season, and have played to the under in 8 of their last 10. Denver’s defense finished the year ranked #1 in sacks, yards per play, and red zone efficiency. Buffalo has struggled against the run, but their secondary has been playing at a high level. Buffalo stifled Bo Nix last season in his playoff debut, holding him to 13/22 for 144 passing yards in a 31-7 Bills win. Both of these teams are run-first offenses that use up the play clock. The Broncos will want to keep Josh Allen off the field, and the Bills will try to stop the run and bait Nix into a mistake. Hard to not like a playoff Under at Mile High.

Seattle & San Fran played to the under in each of their first two meetings this season, and I expect more of the same in this Divisional Round matchup. The 49ers are now without their star TE George Kittle, and WR Ricky Pearsall remains ‘questionable’ to play. This #1 DVOA ranked Seahawks defense has been able to stifle Kyle Shanan’s offensive scheme. Despite all the injuries to the 49ers defense, they remain a capable unit that limited Seattle’s offense to 13 points in both matchups this season. Sam Darnold is expected to play, but appeared on the injury report with an oblique issue during Thursday’s practice. That type of injury is major cause for concern for a QB. Take the Under.