“Pop” Douglas is starting to find his rhythm with Drake Maye. He is over this mark in 4 of his last 5 games, and had a 25+ yard catch in each. Douglas is an explosive play threat that I expect Maye to look for against a man coverage-heavy Jets defense. New England will be without WR Kayshon Boutte, TE Austin Hooper & RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Their absences should open up the target share enough for Douglas to clear this receiving yards total.

I just don’t see this game being very exciting. Take away the Jets two special teams TDs last week, and you’ll see they did almost nothing on offense. I don’t see them moving the ball efficiently against Mike Vrabel’s squad on a short week. New York did trade away their two best defensive players, but I’m expecting their remaining cast to play with pride against a division rival here. This should be a run-heavy game that stays under the total. Pats win 24-13 is my score prediction.

Goedert’s Over 3.5 receptions line is up to -190 on some books, so I’ll take a stab on Philly’s TE to record that 5th catch at good plus odds. Goedert is coming off consecutive games in which he caught 3 receptions on 3 targets, but the Eagles ground game had them in command for most of those contests. In the two games prior, Goedert saw 9 targets against the Broncos, and 11 targets against the Giants. I expect Jalen Hurts to target him over the middle of the field frequently, considering how often the Packers employ zone coverage. If Green Bay looks to double A.J Brown, Goedert will have plenty of reception chances.

Since returning from injury, Watson is over this mark in consecutive games. His receiving yards line is low because he hasn't seen many targets (4 in each game), but he is Green Bay's best deep-ball threat. Dating back to last season, when Watson has gotten 4+ targets in a game he is 7-3 to the Over at this current line, and had exactly 39 rec yards in one of the misses. Green Bay is looking to bounce back after an ugly loss to the Panthers, so I expect Love to take some shots downfield to Watson.

After their outright loss to the Panthers last week, I understand why most are low on Green Bay. The Packers seem to play to the level of their opponent. However, I think the market is too high on the Eagles (80% of bets & money on Philly), who could very well be a 4-4 team if not for some fortunate bounces of the ball. I don’t trust Eagles OC Kevin Patullo, and Packers DC Jeff Hafley’s zone-heavy schemes could cause problems for Jalen Hurts, who fares much better against man coverage. Philly’s moves to acquire defensive pieces at the deadline could give them a boost, but I still don’t make them a PK em on the road in Lambeau. Buy low spot on the Packers.

Last week against the Colts strong O-line, Highsmith had 4 QB pressures and 2 sacks. The Chargers are without LT Joe Alt & RT Bobby Hart, so I expect Watt & Highsmith to wreak havoc all night. Considering the matchup and Highsmith’s performance last week, getting +136 for half a sack seems like value.

Mike Tomlin as an underdog… need I say more? 65-35-3 ATS, and 32-14-1 ATS when playing as a dog against an opponent with a better record. The Chargers offensive line is in shambles, and the loss of LT Joe Alt can’t be understated. LA is 15-5 SU when Alt starts, but 2-5 without him. They will also be without RT Bobby Hart. Pittsburgh’s defense is starting to wake up, and T.J Watt & company could make it a long night for Justin Herbert.

The total seems suspiciously low. Both of these teams played in games that went over 45 in each of their past 3, yet with 81% of the bets on the Over, the total hasn’t really budged. I expect defenses to be key in this one. The Chargers offensive production drops off without LT Joe Alt. The Steelers went with more two-high safety looks last week, and moved Jalen Ramsey around which seemed to be an effective switch. The Chargers defense ranks 12th in defensive passing DVOA, and should be able to limit Pittsburgh’s explosive plays. I see this being a 23-20 type of game.

This is just too many points for the home dog in an NFC West rivalry. Since 2019, the Rams and Niners have faced off 14 times, with the underdog going 13-1 ATS in those matchups! The 49ers have been decimated by injury this season, yet continue to play tough. Backup QB Mac Jones will make the start again, which I don't see as a downgrade considering that he threw for 33/49, 342 yards, 2 TD/0 INT in San Fran's 26-23 OT win over the Rams in Week 5. The Rams also have issues at the Kicker position which could make things funky. I'll take the +6.

McBride’s production has gone up with Jacoby Brissett under center. In the past 3 games, McBride has 23 receptions on 33 targets & 4 TDs. He has 4 end zone targets as well, and I like his odds to score for a 4th straight game. .5u play

The spread is too wide for this division rivalry. Cardinals backup QB Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 6 TD/ 1 INT over his 3 starts, and had 250+ passing yards in each of those games. Arizona lost to the Colts & Packers by 4 in competitive affairs, and then shut down the Cowboys last week in an impressive 27-17 win. The Seahawks have been excellent on both sides of the ball this season, but it does feel like they’re due for regression eventually. Seattle beat Arizona 23-20 when these teams played in Week 4, and I’d argue the Cardinals are better now with Brissett running the show. 7 points is too many to lay in this division rivalry.

The Seahawks are 3-1 to the Over at home this season, and have scored 27+ points in 5/8 games. The Cardinals offense has been far more efficient with backup QB Jacoby Brissett at the helm. Both defenses will be missing a number of starters- Arizona is down starting CBs Max Melton & Will Johnson, along with LBs Mack Wilson & B.J Ojulari. The Seahawks will likely be without LB Ernest Jones and CB Josh Jobe. I expect a competitive game that goes over the total with a 27-24 type of score.

Otton is over this mark in 4 straight games, and has been an important target for Baker Mayfield with all of the injuries to Tampa’s WRs. Coming out of their bye week, the Bucs will still be without Chris Godwin & Bucky Irving, so expect them to continue running a heavy dose of 12 personnel. Otton has been on the field for virtually all of the offensive snaps with Tampa using two TE formations. Otton has a 20+ yard catch in each of the last 4 games, and I expect Mayfield to target him frequently over the middle of the field in this matchup.

I want in on the Ravens party. This line is headed to -4/-4.5 on most other books, and I think for good reason. Baltimore seems poised to hit the accelerator on their season, and reemerge as contenders in the AFC. Vikings DC Brian Flores is aggressive with his blitz attack, but Lamar Jackson has a 79% completion percentage against the blitz, good for #1 in the NFL in that category. I still have plenty of doubts about Vikings QB J.J McCarthy, especially against a Ravens defense that is finally starting to play well. If not for a surprising road upset over the Lions (who are quietly having some offensive issues), Minnesota would probably be +6/7 dogs here. Ravens flock.

Rousseau had a quiet start to the season, but is starting to heat up. He has recorded sacks in 3 of the last 4 games, and is coming off his best performance of the season against the Chiefs last week. Rousseau is from Florida and went to college at Miami University, so this could be a nice homecoming game for him. In 9 games against the Dolphins over his career, Rousseau has 6.5 sacks. Buffalo's pass rush is starting to get home, so I like Rousseau to record at least half a sack at plus odds.