Eric's Past Picks
This is my favorite prop on the board for the Super Bowl. Samaje Perine has at least one catch in 17 of 19 games and is over this receiving total in 16 of those 17 games. He has been mostly quiet in the playoffs, with the exception of the final play of the AFC Championship Game to seal Kansas City's victory. But I believe he'll play more snaps in what should be a close game on Sunday and be a weapon for the Chiefs out of the backfield. I would play this up to 10 yards, considering Perine has 15 games at or above that number.
The Eagles are 15-1 since their bye week and Jalen Hurts has played the full game (sans injury) in 13 of them. In those 13 games, the Eagles are undefeated and he has gone under this attempts total in 10 of them. This bet is out the window if Philadelphia is chasing points on Sunday, but I don't think that will be the case. Look for the Eagles to rely on Saquon Barkley, as well as Hurts' legs, and keep the passing attempts to 25 or less (if my game flow prediction is correct).
The Eagles allowed the second fewest points per game during the regular season (17.8) and the Chiefs fourth fewest (19.2) PPG. I know we saw a track meet between these two teams in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago but I expect a much lower scoring, defensive battle this time around. Eagles 23, Chiefs 20.
Enough with the NFL conspiracy theories. The two best teams in the league this year are meeting for the championship. Philadelphia is 15-1 since it’s Week 5 bye, while Kansas City is 17-1 this season when Patrick Mahomes plays. I believe Saquon Barkley tops 100 yards rushing for the 13th time in his last 15 games and scores at least once. In a close game, Philadelphia captures their second Super Bowl title on a late Jake Elliott field goal and Barkley caps off his amazing season with an MVP award.
We're getting a 20+ yard discount with Dawson Knox compared to his teammate Dalton Kincaid. Both had two targets last week but Knox ran more routes. Knox had 40 yards on four catches vs. the Chiefs in Week 11 and two grabs for 38 yards vs. Denver in the Wild Card round. All we need is one catch to get this done in the AFC Championship Game and I like our chances.
Travis Kelce continues to up his game in the playoffs, having topped 70 yards in 14 straight playoff games dating back to 2020. In 13 of those 14 games, he has 75 or more yards. I just don't know how the books continue to make his lines so low. Meanwhile, Buffalo surrendered nine catches and 134 yards to Baltimore's tight ends last week. I'm playing this up to 75 on Sunday.
Devonta Smith is already Philadelphia's playoff receiving yardage leader and he should have another fine game on Sunday afternoon. Washington has played more zone coverage in the playoff and against zone, Smith had a 46% target share between Weeks 12-18. With Dallas Goedert unlikely to be 100%, Smith should have more chances to catch short range passes against the Commanders' secondary.
Austin Ekeler has topped this receiving line in 8 of 14 games this season, including an 8 catch, 89 yard performance vs. the Eagles in Week 11. I believe the Commanders will be in comeback mode against the Eagles so Ekeler should have at least 3-4 catches to hit this mark at the minimum. In two playoff games, he has 26 and 41 yards receiving.
Ohio State was my preseason pick to win it all and I'm not changing my mind here. They are the most talented team in college football, and while their loss to Michigan on November 30th left plenty of questions, all doubt has been removed thus far during this postseason. Sure, Texas gave them a run in the Cotton Bowl, but a banged up Notre Dame team won't keep it close for more than three quarters. While this is far from the most confident pick I've made this season, I'll roll with Ohio State to win by multiple scores and capture their third National Championship of the 2000s.
Against the Buckeyes' top-ranked defense, I have a hard time seeing Notre Dame's offense having much success. On the other side of the ball, I don't see Ohio State's offense playing as well as they did against Tennessee and Oregon. Expect a methodical effort like we saw against Texas, considering both the Longhorns and Fighting Irish defenses are also top-five units nationally. Plus, in the two matchups between these two teams in 2022 and 2023, both won by Ohio State, each only featured 31 total points. Buckeyes and under are the combo play. Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13.
This is a lot of juice to lay but I'm playing my first kicker under of the season. Excluding Week 18 when they played mostly backups on defense, the Bills haven't allowed multiple field goals in seven straight contests. Tucker has only made multiple successful three-pointers in 2 of his last 9 games. With potential poor weather in Buffalo, this seems like another good spot to fade the future Hall of Fame kicker.
Despite having only 19 yards receiving when these two teams met in Week 12, Goedert had a 26% target share and should exploit the Rams' defense like T.J. Hockenson did on Monday night. Los Angeles allowed the fifth most receiving yards to tight ends this season and Goedert should be able to exploit their linebackers. I would play this up to 39.5.
The rookie Daniels has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight games in which he's played the entire game (excluding Week 18). The Lions, after not surrendering multiple touchdown passes through 11 games, allowed four passers to go over this number in their last six games. In what figures to be a high-scoring game in Detroit, I think Daniels keeps his streak going on Saturday night.
Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury, facing the best rush defense in the NFL on Saturday, and likely going to be in a game where his team is trailing. It's a bad formula for a player who has rushed for 57 or less yards in 6 of his last 9 games. I'd almost be surprised if he cracked the 50 yard mark and feel fairly confident in this under.
Bucs-Commanders has the highest total on the board for Wild Card Weekend and I expect Baker Mayfield to keep up his sizzling performances of late. He's over this number in 6 of his last 7 games including five straight. In those last five games, Mayfield hasn't totaled less than 289 total yards. With the exception of Trey Lance last week, the Commanders have been stingy against opposing quarterbacks but I think that changes on Sunday night. Expect a fun game with Mayfield once again topping 300 total yards.