Backing Cristopher Sanchez at home has been a profitable venture...

It's usually a good idea to fade the worst team in the league, especially when their road record is a measly 18-38. The Angels are awful and start a pitcher in Ryan Johnson, who is 0-4 with a 9.55 road ERA. Los Angeles has lost each of his five road starts this season by at least two runs. Despite being two games under .500, the Orioles are only half a game out of the last American League Wild Card spot and should be plenty motivated to beat the league's worst team. Starting pitcher Brandon Young is 8-2 with a 3.31 ERA this season and should pick up another victory against the Angels on Thursday afternoon.

I rarely take home teams on the run line but this one is too juicy. Bryan Woo has the most dramatic home / road splits of any pitcher in baseball. At home, he's 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA. On the road, Woo is 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA. The Mariners have won 6 of his 8 home starts by multiple runs. Against a Tigers team that is packing it in for the year, look for the Mariners to win by at least two runs on Wednesday night.

The Red Sox are on an incredible run, winners of 23 of their last 26 games since July 3rd, including a three game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago. Though Chicago has won 4 of its last 5 games, they send Davis Martin to the hill on Tuesday and that hasn't been a good thing lately on the road. The White Sox have lost Martin's last five road starts and his ERA is nearly two runs higher away from Rate Field. Meanwhile, Boston is 4-0 in Patrick Sandoval's starts in 2026. Both teams are in the playoffs as of now but look for the Red Sox to take Game 1 of this important series on Tuesday night.

In nine games at Daikin Park since the All-Star Break, Yordan Alvarez has reached at least two total bases in each of them. Dating back to the beginning of July, he's hit this prop in 12 of his last 13 games at home. Alvarez is hitting a Ted Williams-esque .389 at home which is truly unbelievable. Shane Bieber is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays on Monday but even if he doesn't (due to it being trade deadline day), I don't see the Blue Jays' staff slowing down the American League MVP favorite.

Similar to his teammate Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena has been otherworldly at Daikin Park this season. The Astros shortstop is hitting an incredible .381 at home and has reached 2+ total bases in all seven games in which he has taken at least three at-bats at home since the All-Star Break (Pena left the game on 7/18 after only two ABs). Expect Houston's leadoff man to light up the box score yet again as his team now holds a 2.5 game lead in the American League West Division.

I understand that the Diamondbacks collectively strike out the third fewest in baseball, but how can we ignore this run that Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams is on? In his last four starts, Williams has struck out 11-11-11-12 batters. This line just seems too low. With Cleveland looking to avoid the sweep at home and also get closer in the AL Central race, expect another fine outing from the Guardians' ace.

If you like roller coasters, you might also enjoy betting on the Miami Marlins. They went 21-6 in June, followed by a 6-2 run to start July. Then Miami lost 12 in a row before winning 5 of its last 6 games. Somehow the Marlins are only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. Now they look to take 3 of 4 vs. the Mets with ace Sandy Alcantara on the mound. The Mets are starting 36 year old journeyman Robert Stock, who has thrown only 20.2 Major League innings since 2021. Look for Miami to keep its roll going with a Sunday victory against a team that's headed for a sell-off by tomorrow afternoon.

The Angels scratched Jose Soriano because their team's fire sale will continue in the coming days. Look for Milwaukee to take advantage on the road in a bullpen game for their opponents. The Brewers have won 6 of Robert Gasser's last 7 starts and should overmatch their opponents, some of whom are dreaming for greener pastures come the trade deadline on Monday.

I'm going to back a rookie pitcher making his Major League debut on the road over a hardened veteran. Maybe I'm crazy but it's worth a shot at plus-money. The highly-touted Quinn Mathews debuts for St. Louis after posting a 3.13 ERA in AAA with 111 strikeouts over 92 innings. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman is a shell of his former self and likely needs to be dealt out of Toronto. The Blue Jays have lost eight of his starts in-a-row and 9 of 10 since the beginning of June. Look for the Cardinals to even the weekend series behind their rookie left hander on Saturday.

I'll ride the hot hand of Shota Imanaga and roll with my Cubbies on Friday afternoon. Since the All-Star Break, Imanaga has been awesome, allowing no runs in 13 innings pitched. In fact, Imanaga has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in five straight outings. Yankees starter Will Warren was tagged for six runs in three innings in Philadelphia on Sunday night and runs up against a Cubs team who has won 8 of 13 since the Break. Last year, these two pitchers squared off in New York, with Imanaga holding the Yankees to two hits and one run over seven innings en route to a 4-1 win. I'll back a similar outcome for the North Siders on Friday afternoon.

I wasn't thrilled about laying -156 odds until I took a look at Bryan Woo's home/road splits for Seattle. At home, the right hander is 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA in nine starts. On the road, he's 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in 11 starts. Not to mention the fact that Woo is going up against arguably the best lineup in baseball on the road tonight. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has won all four of Roki Sasaki's starts in July. I think the Dodgers' offense supports Sasaki against the struggling Woo and wins the three game series on Thursday night.

Don't look now but San Diego has won five straight games and enters a crucial four game home weekend series against NL West rival San Francisco. For the Giants, Robbie Ray is a shell of himself away from home: 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA vs. 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA at Oracle Park. Look out for the middle of the Padres' batting order against Ray: Manny Machado, Ty France, and Luis Rengifo are a combined 19 of 48 (.396) with 7 home runs against the left hander. Look for San Diego's top notch bullpen to throw at least four innings in relief of J.P. Sears and lead the Padres to another home victory.

I'll lay the juice again for the Eric Lauer Dodgers experience. Heck, I'd probably play this line up to at least -200. Since coming over to Los Angeles, the Dodgers are 8-0 when Lauer pitches for them. Not to mention that current Mariners hitters are only 7 of 41 against him (.171 average). Until this fad loses, I'll keep playing it over and over again.

Philadelphia has the right guy on the hill to prevent the three game sweep in Florida. Former Marlins left hander Jesus Luzardo has the craziest reverse splits in Major League Baseball. At home, Luzardo has a 5.53 ERA while on the road, his ERA is a sterling 1.38. I'm not sure who Miami will throw out there on Wednesday afternoon, but not sure it matters. Just like the Phillies did on Sunday night to avoid the sweep against the Yankees, expect a comfortable multiple-run win to close out their final appearance in south Florida this season.