Eric's Past Picks
In every regular season home start of C.J. Stroud's career (6 games), he's thrown at least two touchdown passes. While Denver's pass defense has gotten stingy since the middle of the season (13 TD passes allowed in Weeks 1-4 combined, six since), Stroud hasn't looked like a rookie QB, having also topped the 300 yard passing mark in four straight. This prop is a bit juicier than I usually like to play but sometimes the trends don't lie...
In 9 of the 11 Tennessee games this season, an opposing kicker has booted at least two successful field goals. Gay was one of the opponents who found success, kicking three FGs against the Titans in Week 5. The Indianapolis kicker is over this prop in 5 of his last 7 games and I expect another successful day from him in Week 13.
Quick trivia question: through 12 weeks, who leads the NFL in passing yards? The answer: Sam Howell with 3,339. Game script should once again be in the Washington QB's favor with Miami likely leading throughout. He has surpassed the 300 yard mark in four of his last five games and I think it's quite possible yet again on Sunday.
Pittman Jr. has a 28.5% target share with Gardner Minshew as his QB and has 12 or more targets in four of his last six games. He's gone over the 80 yard mark four times in those six games, including twice over 100 yards. Against a Titans secondary who has been burned lately by notable WRs (Diontae Johnson, Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley), I'm expecting another 80+ yard effort from the Colts top pass catcher.
Samuel enters of a 12 target, nine catch, 100 yard performance in a blowout loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving day. The Dolphins play zone the majority of the time and Samuel thrives in that scenario, with a 17.5% first read share and 13.9% target share as the team's #3 or #4 passing option. Samuel has been over 40 yards in six games this season and I'm betting on a seventh in Week 13.
Do I want to see Florida State in the College Football Playoff? No. Do I currently think they're one of the four best teams in the country? No. But do I think Louisville will do college football fans a favor and knock them off? No. I'm just not a believe in the Cardinals, who were exposed at home by Kentucky in a stunning loss last weekend. Somehow, some way, the Seminoles survive and advance to the final four. Florida State 24, Louisville 20.
The SEC Championship Game generally produces high-scoring games as 12 of the last 14 have gone over, including the last three where an average of 81 points per game have been scored. Alabama is 8-0 to the Over in these title games and is 7-0-1 to the Over in their last eight games in 2023. Let's ride the wave, though I think Georgia finds a way to remain unbeaten. Georgia 34, Alabama 27.
Underdogs tend to fare well in the MAC Championship Game, going 12-5-1 ATS since 2005. Miami is 10-1 SU and 9-2 in it's last 11 games, with a 21-17 loss to Toledo counting against them in both categories. The RedHawks boast a solid defense, giving up only 16.3 points per game and should be able to once again hold the potent Toledo offense somewhat in check. I still think the Rockets will win though. Toledo 23, Miami (Ohio) 19.
The Big 12 Championship Game for some reason usually produces unders, as eight straight have gone under the total. Texas is ranked #1 in every major statistical defensive category in the conference and I believe they need to look dominant in order to gain additional favor from the committee in the event of a Florida State loss. Texas 34, Oklahoma State 13.
I played this angle the first time these two usually high-scoring teams met and it came very close, if not for Oregon failing on a 4th down attempt that would've sealed a 33-29 victory in Seattle. Excluding their matchup with each other, these teams are each 7-4 to the under this season. I think Oregon's defense holds Michael Penix, Jr. somewhat in check and the Ducks will end up in the College Football Playoff. Oregon 34, Washington 17.
Dallas has allowed only TWO kickers in 11 games to successful kick multiple three-pointers against them. Myers has missed his share of kicks, six to be exact, so even if he gets opportunities, he may not convert. Plus Seattle likely should be in chase mode where touchdowns, not field goals matter.
I can't help myself with picking kicker props, especially for these primetime games! Minnesota has been giving up field goals in bunches lately, a whopping TEN in the last three weeks combined! Plus Santos has made seven combined in his last two games. Earlier this season, he kicked two field goals against the Vikings, who have given up multiple successful three pointers in 7 of 11 games. Make it 8 of 12 tonight if all goes according to plan.
Njoku had a whopping FIFTEEN targets last week, catching seven passes for 56 yards from Cleveland rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Eight tight ends have surpassed 40 yards against Denver including both T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver last week. Look for Njoku to once again be a key component of Cleveland's offense on Sunday.
Prater kicked four field goals in Kyler Murray's only home start this season (against Atlanta two weeks ago) and had three field goals at Los Angeles in Week 6. The Rams have allowed multiple field goals in eight of ten games this season and I see the trend continuing on Sunday.
Stroud is almost a lock for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year but can he get in the thick of the NFL MVP race? Shockingly, Houston has beaten Jacksonville 10 of the last 11 times the two teams have met including earlier this season. Six QBs have surpassed this total vs. the Jaguars in ten games, including Stroud in Week 3. In his last three games, Stroud is averaging 387 yards per game. I'll predict another 300+ yard game for the rookie phenom in what should be a fun game on Sunday afternoon.