I'll be at this game on Saturday night so might as well put a pick in for it. In their 13 home games this season, Arizona is averaging nearly 94 points per game and has scored 84 or more points in 12 of them. Texas Tech is averaging more than 82 PPG this season and they're a skilled squad that I think will give the Wildcats a big test. This one will be closer than expected with the spread but I think it gets over 160 from a total perspective. Arizona 84, Texas Tech 78.

Keeping this one fairly simple: 12 of the last 13 LSU games have seen 146 or more points scored. Meanwhile, Tennessee has scored 76 or more points in all 13 of their home games. This feels like a game where the Volunteers score 80+, while the Tigers get at least 65 in what should be a resounding win for Rick Barnes' squad.

This might be the strangest pick I make all year in college basketball (which says something). Eastern Michigan has lost seven straight games outright and got walloped by Western Michigan by 17 on the road in January. But the Eagles have been a wagon covering the spread, having done so in 7 of their last 8 games, while their opponent has failed to cover in 5 of 7. So give me the home team to break the losing streak, by at least seven points, and move to 9-1 ATS at home.

Denver is the best Over team in the country by far – 19-4 including 7-1 at home. If you want to fade this trend, then good luck to you because I won't. Since December 31st, here are the totals in Pioneers home games: 161-185-159-179-166 - all above this total. These teams combined for 166 last month and with DU likely controlling the pace on their home floor, I expect to see a similar total on Thursday night.

I'm digging DEEP on a Thursday for college basketball picks apparently. Though the total when these two teams met a month ago was only 124, I believe we'll see a significantly faster-paced game this time. Lindenwood has played to 150+ totals in 7 of their last 9 games, while UT Martin has scored 75+ points in 5 of their last 6 contests. All six times UT Martin has hit the Over line this season have come on the road. I think this game ends up closer to 150 total points than 140 so we have a few points to spare.

Currently sitting square on the NCAA Tournament bubble and with a difficult remaining schedule, this is a must win game for Oklahoma State. I'm willing to toss their disastrous performance in Tucson against my Wildcats on Saturday. Meanwhile, ASU has lost 10 of their last 13 games and is the worst rebounding team in the Big 12. I like the value on the Cowboys here against an undisciplined ASU team, which yet again is going nowhere this season.

I don't have a good feeling tonight about my Wildcats, but will NEVER pick against them with an official play on here. Instead, with two top-40 defensive teams going head-to-head, I'm looking at the under tonight. Arizona has gone under in five of their last six games, while Kansas has played to the under in six of seven. I see this game being played in the low-70s at most, so I would bet it down to 150.

This one is interesting. Henderson’s rushing prop is over/under 18.5 yards, while his receiving prop is O/U 3.5 yards. So how is the combined number 3.5 yards higher? I’m not sure how the rookie’s snap count has gone from 26 to 25 to 4 in the playoffs but here we are. I expect him to play at least 20 snaps in the Super Bowl and receive a minimum of eight touches as we saw in 16 of 20 games to date. If I’m correct on the touches, Henderson needs to average 3.5 yards per touch to hit this prop. I’ll take that chance with such a dynamic player.

I’m basing this pick on the volume uptick the veteran wide receiver has seen in the last couple games. Kupp has a 22% target share in the postseason, so let’s say Sam Darnold meets his attempts projection of 30, that’s 6-7 targets for Kupp. He already has topped this yardage line in both postseason games and has a tendency to be clutch in his career. Don’t forget his MVP performance in Super Bowl LVI. I’m not asking for the world here, just three catches for 35 yards would get it done for us. I’ll go somewhat bold and say that Kupp tops 40 yards based on the projected volume and as a security blanket for Sam Darnold.

In 16 games against quarterbacks not named Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks have recorded an interception in 12 of them. Maye has thrown exactly one interception in half his games this season. As I expect the Patriots to be in chase mode, I’m betting on at least one crucial turnover from the young New England QB.

I can’t believe I’m betting on Sam Darnold to win a Super Bowl. But he proved my NFC Championship prediction wrong with an awesome performance against the Rams. So much for the oblique injury after all. Without short fields this postseason, New England’s offense has done next to nothing and it will be the same story against an elite Seattle defense. The Patriots have been a great story this season but it won’t be a fun ending. Hopefully this isn’t the last time we see Drake Maye in a Super Bowl a la Dan Marino in his second year (also in a game played outside of San Francisco). Seattle rolls to their second Super Bowl championship. Seahawks 27, Patriots 13.

Two top defenses plus a New England offense that has struggled this postseason is not the right formula for an over line. In their last six games combined against teams not named the Rams, Seattle has surrendered a combined 44 points (7.3 PPG). Meanwhile, New England’s defense has given up only 9.2 PPG over their last five games. While I think Seattle will score at least once on defense / special teams, I would be mildly surprised if this one went over the total.

I'm looking for a bit of redemption after betting the pathetic Kings last night, so let's move on to a prop. The No. 1 overall pick, Flagg, is on fire of late, having posted R+A totals of 15-17-13-13 in his last four games. With Dallas shorthanded yet again against the Spurs, look for Dallas' budding star to play hero mode once again, though I'm not sure he can score 34 or more points for the fourth straight game. A 25-8-6 line seems plenty in play tonight, so I'll be playing overs yet again on all of Cooper Flagg's props.

I try not to dabble in the NBA much but this is a trend I can't resist. Since early-2025, the Grizzlies are 0-27-1 ATS after scoring 116 points in their previous game. While it's never comfortable backing a team on a nine game losing streak, the trend is so strong, and Memphis is so shorthanded, that I can't resist betting Sacramento.

The Billikens are 21-1 and average more than 91 points per game, ranking sixth nationally. While they are only 3-2 to the Over in road games, St. Louis games have exceeded this 147.5 number in four of those games. On the season, Josh Schertz’s team has scored 77 or more points in 20 of 22 games. On the other side, in seven Davidson games this season with totals of 144.5 or greater, they’ve exceeded 147.5 total points six times. This feels like a game played in at least the 150s so I’m rolling with the Over.