Eric's Picks (4 Live)
Eric's Past Picks
Let's toss Conner's dud performance two weeks ago against Seattle where Arizona abandoned their run game for some reason. The Seahawks' defense can be exploited by opposing running backs as ten have topped this combo line this year. Conner is over this in 8 of 12 games in 2024 and should see plenty of volume with Arizona's NFC West chances all but dead with a loss this week.
If Will Levis' passing yards is our appetizer, this is the main course. Not only does Ridley face the worst pass defense in the league, but it's his former team who let him walk in the offseason. He is third in the league in deep targets and has a 28% target share against man coverage, which Jacksonville plays more than any other team in the league. Anything short of 75 yards and I would be disappointed in Ridley's output this week.
This is part one of the Titans combo platter on the EC menu this week. Jacksonville's pass defense is the league's worst (273.3 yards allowed), having only prevented Deshaun Watson and an injured Jordan Love from hitting this number all season. Levis is over this total in his last three games and is fourth among all QBs in yards per attempt since he returned in Week 10. I would play this up to 211.5 at standard odds.
I'm rolling with Jason Sanders as my weekly kicker play considering that Miami's offense once again is potent with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup. Regardless, Sanders is over this number in 5 of 6 home games, has attempted multiple field goals in 10 of 12 this year, and New York has given up multiple attempts in 7 of their last 9 games. We'll lay the juice and hope to hit it big come Sunday afternoon.
This is the toughest game for me to pick this week which is why I'm only wagering half a unit. But the Tigers are playing on house money, considering they lost to South Carolina last week and got lucky to be here with a giant Syracuse upset over Miami. Dabo Swinney is 8-1 straight up in Conference Championship Games and has won eight straight. Plus, over the last decade, teams entering a conference championship on a 3+ game losing streak against the spread are 7-0 SU/ATS in those title games. A strange stat indeed, but adds to my belief that Clemson will knock an SEC team out of the CFP. Clemson 30, SMU 26.
Under James Franklin, Penn State is 1-13 vs. top-5 teams, with their only win coming in 2016 vs. Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as an underdog since 2022. But Franklin is 1-0 in conference title games while Dan Lanning is 0-1, losing last year to Washington. Against Oregon, the strategy for Franklin’s team should be to play ball control and keep the potent Ducks offense off the field. Both teams have top-10 scoring defenses, combining to surrender 30.2 points per game. I have a strange feeling that #1 is going down in a lower scoring game than most expect. Penn State 23, Oregon 20.
I just can’t pick against a team who is 11-1 against the spread this season. They had to win on the road in consecutive weeks to make it this far, including overcoming a 17-0 halftime deficit at James Madison last week to win in double overtime. With Braylon Braxton at quarterback, Marshall is 7-0 and averaging more than 37 points per game. On defense, Mike Green leads the nation in tackles for loss (21) and the Sun Belt in sacks (16). Not only will I take the points, but give me the Thundering Herd is a surprising upset. Marshall 31, Louisiana 28.
Texas wants revenge after the Bulldogs went to Austin in October and dominated them in a 30-15 victory. But Georgia has regressed and had to rally late and somehow win the 8 overtime classic against Georgia Tech last week. Meanwhile, the Longhorns have gotten stronger since then and their second-ranked scoring defense (11.7 PPG) is keeping teams at bay. Kirby Smart is only 2-4 straight up in SEC Championship Games and the Bulldogs are 3-9 against the spread this season. The Longhorns get their much-needed revenge and look like the best team in the country while doing it. I also would lean towards the under. Texas 23, Georgia 17.
Iowa State has the best scoring defense in the Big 12 (19.6 points per game allowed) while Arizona State isn’t far behind (21.5). In games where Matt Campbell-coached teams are underdogs, the under is 40-21-1. The Cyclones are awesome against the pass (156.9 yards per game allowed, third fewest nationally) but get crushed by the run. Cam Skattebo helps the Sun Devils control the clock and leads his team to a Fiesta Bowl berth. ASU 24, Iowa State 21.
Both of these teams come in red hot (five straight wins for Ohio, seven for Miami) so don’t underestimate how good this game could be on Saturday. Miami won the conference title game last year, while Ohio is 0-5 lifetime in MAC Championship Games. The Redhawks won 30-20 earlier this season, but I expect the result flipped on Saturday. The Bobcats have the best rushing defense in the conference (98.7 yards allowed) and the best rushing offense (210.5) in the MAC. They also enter this game 5-0 straight up and against the spread since losing to Miami. Underdogs are 11-3-1 ATS in MAC Championship Games since 2008. Add another one to the list in 2024. Ohio 23, Miami (OH) 16.
This game should be awesome with a College Football Playoff berth on the line for both teams. The Broncos averaged 47 points per game at home during the regular season, while the Rebels have averaged 33 PPG on the road dating back to 2023. I would be stunned if we saw less than the 53 total points from October’s matchup, a 29-24 Boise State road win. Last year, the Broncos won this same game 44-20 in Las Vegas to capture the conference title. Expect plenty of fireworks and a one possession game won by Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty’s squad. Boise State 35, UNLV 31.