In the last two seasons, Brandon Aubrey’s kicking points vs. Washington are as follows: 9-13-14-12. He's had 15 combined field goal attempts in those four games against Dan Quinn’s teams. It was truly bizarre to see Dallas' kicker so quiet in Week 1 after he attempted 89 field goals over the last two seasons. I'm expecting a Dallas offensive explosion in their home opener and Aubrey to have plenty of work vs. Washington once again.

Here’s a prop with a 100% regular season hit rate dating back to 2025. Since he came to Jacksonville last November, Meyers has posted 39 or more yards in all ten regular season games. Last week's 2-40 line continued the streak. Against the Broncos last December, Meyers posted a 4-45 line on eight targets. I expect Jacksonville to be down in the fourth quarter and throwing so game script should be in our favor. A similar line to last year's performance should be in order for the Jaguars' #3 wide receiver.

It's time for Rico Dowdle to show that he is worthy of making more than $6 million per season. In Week 1, Dowdle had a 58% snap rate and was the clear RB1 over Jaylen Warren. But his 8 carries for 15 yards was uninspiring at best. Even still, this line is a severe overreaction to that performance. In Week 1, Seattle’s running backs had 20 carries for 84 yards, more than four yards per carry vs. the Patriots. Especially with rain in the forecast, I think the Steelers lean on their rushing attack to try and win the possession battle. I see Dowdle getting 10-12 carries minimum and topping 40 yards on the ground.

I would think that Baker Mayfield absolutely wants to stick it to his old team on Sunday, especially since Cleveland is now stuck with Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback. Last week, Trevor Lawrence threw for 245 yards on only 23 attempts vs. Cleveland – the third-most yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, and the highest passing success rate. I underestimated how bad the Browns defense really is in the post Myles Garrett-era. I think Mayfield goes for 225+ as the Bucs do whatever they want offensively in Week 2.

Montana is 3-0 and ranked in the top-3 of FCS polls this season. Oregon State is 0-2 with double-digit losses to ranked Big 12 teams. Surely, this spread should be closer to 10 than 17.5, right? The Grizzlies boast FCS preseason All-American running back Eli Gillman, who has rushed for 328 yards and seven scores in three games in 2026. They also have preseason second team All-Americans QB Keali'i Ah Yat and WR Brooks Davis - quite the trio on offense. Montana is also 16-2 since the beginning of 2025 with both losses to rival Montana State last year. Top-5 FCS teams are 3-1 straight up vs. FBS teams this year. Watch out Beavers - this one will be close. Oregon State 34, Montana 27.

I hate betting against my own team but a five touchdown blowout isn't necessary for Arizona. And no, this isn't simply a reaction to last week's poor second half at BYU. With a tricky trip at Washington State next week and the Big 12 season kicking in full gear after that, I'd be plenty content for the Wildcats to get up early and take star QB Noah Fifita out after the third quarter. Both of these teams are 0-2 ATS so something has to give. UofA wins easily, but calls off the dogs late. Arizona 41, Northern Illinois 13.

I would be very surprised if this wasn't a high scoring game between Nebraska and #6 in FCS, North Dakota. The Cornhuskers have scored 15 touchdowns in two games against MAC foes. The Fighting Sioux have scored 21 touchdowns in three games against fellow FCS teams. Last year, a less-talented UND team scored 35 at Kansas State in the opening week, only losing by three points. I lean North Dakota plus the points but the Over is my top play for 1.5 units. Nebraska 42, North Dakota 21.

I'm putting my faith in Hayden Wesneski to pitch a gem for the Astros and keep them at least tied for first place in the American League West Division. In nine starts this season, Houston is 7-2 as the 28 year old has been more than serviceable since debuting at the end of July. Plus, current Braves are hitting a pathetic .139 in 36 at-bats against the right-hander which also adds to the case. Houston evens the series on Saturday.

A win in this matchup would go a long way for Louisville, who likely won’t face a ranked team the rest of the regular season. I was much more impressed with the Cardinals in their loss to Ole Miss than I was in SMU’s win over Florida State. Plus, there’s a revenge angle here for a 32 point beatdown on the road last year. Louisville 31, SMU 27.

Nothing Clemson has shown this season has been good. They have major QB issues and Dabo Swinney’s lack of using the transfer portal has torpedoed this program from what it used to be. Not that UNC is all that great offensively, but I’m buying their defense after what I saw vs. TCU in Week 0. This game should be U-G-L-Y and ruled by both defenses. The Under is my top play but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset either. North Carolina 19, Clemson 17.

There are three things certain in life: death, taxes, and Cade Cavalli pitching at least six innings (when he doesn't get hurt). OK, that might be a little extreme on the latter mention. But Cavalli has been an innings machine since mid-July. In his last 12 starts, Washington's ace has reached 18 outs recorded in 11 of them. And in the one game he failed to hit this prop, Cavalli was well on pace before leaving with a minor injury. Against a St. Louis team with nothing to play for, look for the right hander to successfully navigate the Cardinals lineup and hit this outs prop yet again.

We're hopping on the Jackson Merrill train once again at Coors Field on Thursday. After another three hit game on Wednesday, Merrill has now hit this total bases prop in seven straight games and 8 of his last 9 contests. Against Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, Merrill has a home run among his five at-bats. Look for another big day from the Padres centerfielder as San Diego inches closer to a National League Wild Card berth.

I'm betting on the Pirates to avoid the three game sweep at home against the best team in baseball and I have a good reason why. Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee's starting pitcher is incredible at American Family Field, with a 1.89 in 12 appearances there. But on the road, it's another story. Harrison has a 6.20 ERA away from home and has given up at least three earned runs in 5 of his last 6 outside of Milwaukee. With Pittsburgh striving to end up above .500 (they're two games below right now), I think they go all out to try and win this series finale on Thursday afternoon.

This is a must win for Arizona after falling in extra innings on Tuesday night. The Diamondbacks sit 2.5 games behind the Padres for the final National League Wild Card spot, but finish the regular season at Petco Park for a three game series next weekend. Marlins starter Ryan Gusto has a 5.91 ERA in two starts this month and while Merrill Kelly doesn't inspire a ton of confidence from the Diamondbacks side, the team has won two of his last three starts. Quite simply, I have a hard time seeing Arizona lose this series when so much is on the line, so I guess I'll have to pay to find out.

San Diego has won eight straight games and their centerfielder, Jackson Merrill, is on a massive heater over the last week. Merrill has now totaled 11 hits over his last four games and has achieved 2+ total bases in five of his last six games. Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has a 6.18 home ERA and lefties are hitting .294 against him in 2026. This should be a good spot for Merrill to continue his hot hitting ways as San Diego tries to lock down a Wild Card spot in the National League.