Past Picks
This is a strategic bet for me and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if this ends up being a push. This is a World Cup final between two teams that have shown they are capable of grinding this game to a stall if needed. Argentina played England incredibly close for the first 45 while Spain still boasts the best defense in the world. For me, this match is a 49-51 coin toss in Argentina's favor, so I love taking plus money on DNB for a match that I have either ending in a 1-1 draw at regulation, or 2-1 Argentina.
You're going to see a lot of very true and very statistics going into this World Cup Final. One of the scariest statistics is the fact that Spain have conceded only a single goal over their eight matches. That is 100% a true statistic, and everyone is using that, understandably, as an argument to a low scoring match. I don't care. I just don't. This is a final. I understand Spain defense is good but Argentina are a team that need just one inch or one tiny mistake to punish you. I think we'll see a very slow 30 minutes, followed by 90 minutes of electricity.
I was hoping it was England's year but hard to beat the unstoppable Lionel Messi in his final WC game against the impenetrable Spanish defense. It’s the first time since the FIFA rankings began in 1992 that the top-two teams in the world will meet in the World Cup final. Spain is the first team to get this far since Italy in 2006 while only allowing one goal in the entire tournament. The final is usually low scoring (cautious clubs in the first half) .... just not the past two. But those each involved France.
This feels like a match that stays under. Spain have looked almost untouchable defensively. They held Portugal to 0.6 xG, Belgium to 0.32 xG, and France to 0.3 xG, keeping clean sheets in two of those three matches. They’ve conceded just one goal the entire tournament. Argentina have shown time and time again that you can never count them out, but I think they know their best path to another World Cup is to keep this match tight and avoid mistakes. The longer this stays 0-0, the more Argentina have to like their chances. It has all the makings of a tense, tactical final with very few clear cut chances.
Spain won their last three games in regulation time, despite playing against three of the world’s best teams: France, Belgium, and Portugal. The Spaniards are on a six-game winning streak, and they’ll be full of confidence after absolutely dominating France in the semifinals. They look vastly superior to Argentina in midfield. Of course, Argentina have elite attackers, but so do France, and the likes of Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise couldn’t create anything against this relentless Spain team. They’re so neat and tidy in possession, and so disciplined and well-drilled out of possession, so they should win this game pretty comfortably.
France looked like the best team in this competition before running into a Spanish side that has conceded just one goal through seven matches. Meanwhile, England is coming off a devastating last-minute loss to Argentina, and manager Thomas Tuchel has been constantly criticized for his managerial tactics late in that match. With Kylian Mbappe in contention to win his second straight Golden Ball, I expect France to win this battle for 3rd place.
The third place match always comes down to motivation, and it’s hard to see England bouncing back after such a gut wrenching loss to Argentina. Their midfield is also banged up. Declan Rice may not play, Elliot Anderson has logged a ton of minutes and could be rested, Bukayo Saka is nursing an injury, and Harry Kane has played a heavy workload all year, so don’t be surprised if he’s limited or sits. On the other side, you know Kylian Mbappé will be chasing the Golden Boot, so he’ll be motivated to play. If this turns into a battle of depth, France has the edge, especially with Mbappé leading the way.
I really don't like accusing any leagues or refs or anything of favoritism, but the longer this World Cup goes the more we are seeing some... questionable calls always in the favor of Messi and his crew. We've seen missed calls, forced calls, and just calls with no reasoning. England have yet to play a convincing 90 minutes for me, and Messi and his crew seem to be unstoppable at the moment on the offense. I expect this game to have goals, but I expect us to see a repeat of the France v Argentina final.
This is a game that everyone and their mother is screaming is going to be a low scoring draw. The idea that both teams are going to be so petrified of making a mistake and conceding early is fueling the under 2.5 goal market with the under being heavily juiced. I completely understand that argument and feel as though it's valid, but it's not how I view this match. Both teams have been horrendous defensively over the knockout rounds. While there will be a fear to press, I believe that both teams will be able to unlock each others defensive, and find goals. I love BTTS, but I like the over 2.5!
This match feels like one where we’ll be reaching for an energy drink by halftime. Argentina scored early against Switzerland and completely drained the life out of that match. England weren’t much better, generating less than 0.5 expected goals over 90 minutes. Both teams are stronger defensively than the market gives them credit for, and neither side is likely to take unnecessary risks. This has all the makings of a tight, tactical battle that finishes 1-1. If either team trails late, they’ll do everything possible to force extra time. The draw is the only way I can play this match.
England are unbeaten in 14 competitive games since Thomas Tuchel replaced Gareth Southgate as manager. The Three Lions haven't been at their best in recent weeks, but they keep finding a way to grind out results. The same is true of Argentina, but La Albiceleste's performances have been far more concerning. They needed a 111th minute own goal to beat Cape Verde, and they were lucky to secure a 3-2 comeback win against Egypt in the Round of 16. Argentina also needed extra time to beat 10-man Switzerland on Saturday, and they could struggle to deal with England's pace and physicality in this game.
This should be an entertaining game between two teams that are stacked with elite attackers. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race after scoring eight goals in six games, while Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez form a strong supporting cast. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have both scored six goals for England at this tournament, and they could overpower Argentina's Lisandro Martínez in this game. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in five of Argentina's six games at this tournament, as they're dangerous in attack and dreadful in defense. England also struggle to keep clean sheets, so +135 on over 2.5 goals looks great.
France have been the favorites for the entirety of this World Cup and I don't see that changing as we get to the semi-finals. Spain have been fantastic, especially defensively, but they still have yet to find true consistency. They also haven't played an attack near as strong as France yet in this competition. Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise are the best front three on the planet, and they will not slow down against Spain. I expect them to break through, and while it won't be easy, I expect them to advance in regulation.
I keep seeing the argument that Spain have only conceded once this World Cup so we should expect this to be low-scoring cagey and I just don't agree with that. To be frank, Spain have not been tested. They haven't had to play against a truly incredible attack, and now they will be facing the best front three in world football. France will score this match and that will force Spain to press. I expect France to get at least two goals in this match, and Spain possess the talent to score themselves. I expect this to close around -130.
What a wonderful semifinal matchup outside Dallas on Tuesday. The only countries in the event yet to trail. So evenly matched that I almost passed but I'm gonna want a rooting interest so here we are. Spain won the last meeting 5-4 in the 2025 Nations League Final. I'm pretty darn sure we will not see nine goals Tuesday, although that would be fantastic. And I am going to lean Les Bleus simply as they have more offensive firepower. La Roja have looked a little ragged at times in that regard but are dynamic defensively. France won the lone WC meeting in 2006.