These odds are disrespectful...

This fight could be over quickly...

Alexander Poppeck is stepping up to heavyweight on short notice...

Bogdan Grad has the grappling edge over Dennis Buzukja...

Does Daniel Rodriguez have an edge if the fight goes past Round 1?...

The UFC visits Belgrade this weekend. ...

The 38-year-old Jacoby has won three straight fights by stoppage against inferior competition following a 1-4 stretch against upper-tier opponents. It's difficult to tell which category Said fits as he makes his UFC debut. But he's an undefeated prospect who has shown power despite sometimes careless defense. Jacoby has been difficult to trust as a favorite so we'll take the underdog newcomer as he looks to make a strong impression.

Muhammad Said is making his UFC debut here on short notice, and he is going against a very experienced kickboxer. Said is undefeated, younger, and powerful. He probably needs to knock Jacoby out though, because Jacoby is the more well-rounded striker, and I think he wins more minutes. He is almost 40 years old and has taken damage over the years. I’ll side with the underdog by KO.

Ramazan Temirov is dangerous early with heavy punches and kicks. He can also wrestle early, but I do expect him to slow down if he can’t knock out Steve Erceg. Erceg is the more well-rounded fighter over the course of 15 minutes, and I like him to land more volume. I’ll take Erceg to win rounds 2-3 on the scorecards.

Erceg has been a disappointment relative to expectations after he was fast-tracked to a title shot early in his UFC stint. He lost three straight before finding consecutive wins against lesser competition. Erceg tends to fight with a risk-averse kickboxing style and it wouldn't be surprising if we a somewhat lackluster co-main event. Temrov has good power for the division but also showed extreme caution in a lackluster win over power puncher Charles Johnson in his last fight. We feel this fight is likely to see the final horn and don't mind laying the thick price on the Over 2.5 rounds.

Thought I was done with UFC for this week, but we just got access to O/U round betting so will throw a little down on this. Bogdan Guskov took this main event fight on very short notice but is a pretty quality fighter at 18-3 and ranked as the No. 9 light heavyweight. He can't last against against No. 2 Magomed Ankalaev until the 2:30 mark of Round 2? If we throw out a NC for Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker (Red or Blue?) at UFC 294, then each of the past nine Ankalaev fights have gone past the halfway point of Round 2 or he lost -- which was his last bout in Round 1. And I don't see a loss here.

Ismael Bonfim has gone under the 2.5 rounds mark in 4 of his 5 UFC fights. He has explosive power and speed early, but can break against pressure strikers. Bonfim has been stopped in all three of his UFC losses, and he will have his hands full in this matchup. Axel Sola is a big fighter for the lightweight division, who is unafraid of a nasty fight. His toughness, physicality, and pressure could give Bonfim trouble. However, Sola is coming off a loss in which he sustained tremendous damage just four months ago, so Bonfim could open up a cut on him early. If Bonfim isn’t able to hurt Sola in round one, Sola will look to walk Bonfim down and put him away.

Steve Erceg is now 5-3 with the UFC. While his losses have only come against former champions and title contenders, his durability has been tested even in some of his wins. Erceg has solid MMA boxing, but he often gets hit with hooks while backing up. That happened against power-punchers Kai-Kara France and Alessandro Costa, and could happen against the winging hooks of Ramazan Temirov. The 19-2 Temirov is currently on an eleven-fight win streak and has serious power for the division. Both fighters are skilled grapplers, but Temirov's physicality and athleticism could give him the edge early on. Although Erceg is the more seasoned UFC fighter, I think Temirov’s power and explosiveness make this a tough matchup for him.

I will grab this now because I think it only goes up -- one of our books has Valter Walker at -250 currently, and he's taking huge early action. The Brazilian has a five-inch height and nearly five-inch reach edge on American Thomas Petersen. Walker's nickname is "The Foot Hunter" and I'm not sure I want to know what's behind that moniker, but he has just one career loss and even that was questionable via UD. Petersen is 3-3 in his past six and sorta looks like he sits around all day eating cookie dough (not that there's anything wrong with that). I'm going to pick just one fight per UFC card going forward and hammer it. Has been working lately.

The 7-0 Elliot is an intriguing prospect, who cross trains at MMA Lab and Red Hawk Academy with head coach Tim Welch. Welch said Elliot is perhaps the best young grappler he’s ever been around. Elliot will have to put that praise to the test against Anderson, who is just 5-0 in his MMA career, but has a lot of high level Ju-Jitsu experience. Elliot is the more dangerous puncher, and the naturally bigger fighter at featherweight. He also missed weight, which could give him an extra edge in grappling exchanges. If Anderson can’t submit Elliot, I see Elliot’s physicality and explosive style winning out.

Ko has impressed me in the 2-0 start to his UFC career. He showcased a strong wrestling game, and great control from top position in two shutout wins. Ko's physicality is tough to deal with in grappling exchanges, and I expect him to land takedowns in this matchup. Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded MMA player with athleticism, who can throw kicks from the outside, switch stances and mix up his game, but I don't think he will be able to faze Ko. Ko fights from the southpaw stance and fires a hard left cross down the pipe, that should get Lebosnoyani's respect on the feet. Ko’s in-and-out movement at range, fight I.Q, and physical grappling style will win out again.

This featured prelim between flyweight prospects has the potential to be an entertaining battle. While both have promising futures, the 28-year-old Delgado has more tools at his disposal and more high-level experience. His win over stubborn veteran Andre Fili is easily the biggest name on either fighter's resume. The 24-year-old Bashi is an excellent wrestler/grappler, but we expect Delgado to fend him off and use his superior stand-up game to earn the victory.

Cannonier has had an uneven UFC journey through three weight classes during his 11-8 run with the promotion. The 42-year-old has lost three of his last four and has been relegated to a gatekeeper position role in the middleweight division. Even so, he has faced a tough gauntlet of opponents including No. 3-ranked Nassourdine Imavov and No. 6-ranked Caio Borrahlo. The 30-year-old Duncan is a rising prospect who has won four straight but his most notable win came against fading journeyman Roman Dolidze in March. One trend we’ve seen time and again of late is the prospect getting way too much respect in the MMA odds against the old guard, and we believe Cannonier is worth a sprinkle at these lucrative odds.

This main-card opener features what should be an entertaining battle of featherweight prospects. Both are accomplished submission artists who also don't mind slugging it out, though McMillen seems to have a preference for the stand-up battle. However, we believe Montes is a little more refined and the superior grappler. McMillen has received a little more hype, which we believe has inflated a price that should probably be the other way around.

Big number (has come down) so I raise the wager for the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night Oklahoma City. Former middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis had an 11-fight winning streak snapped last time out but close against the excellent Khamzat Chimaev, who is ranked as the No. 1 middleweight contender. Du Plessis is No. 2 and has never lost back-to-back fights. The ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman fights for the first time in almost a year and is 1-3 in his past four. Usman competes at middleweight for only the second time in his career, and he lost to Chimaev in December 2023 in that one.

The former middleweight champion du Plessis opened in the -350 range only to see this price plummet as early support favors Usman. The former welterweight champion is now 39 and making a last-gasp effort at title contention, and it feels like the UFC is giving him this opportunity as a career achievement reward. Even though DDP struggled to stop the chain wrestling of Khamzat Chimaev in suffering his first UFC loss and surrendering his belt, we believe he still clears everyone else in the division. His advantages in youth, strength and versatility will help him fend off Usman and he should put his opponent away in the third or fourth. Look for TKO/KO odds of around +250 if you want to avoid this ML price.