Should Valter Walker be a bigger favorite? ...

The 7-0 Elliot is an intriguing prospect, who cross trains at MMA Lab and Red Hawk Academy with head coach Tim Welch. Welch said Elliot is perhaps the best young grappler he’s ever been around. Elliot will have to put that praise to the test against Anderson, who is just 5-0 in his MMA career, but has a lot of high level Ju-Jitsu experience. Elliot is the more dangerous puncher, and the naturally bigger fighter at featherweight. He also missed weight, which could give him an extra edge in grappling exchanges. If Anderson can’t submit Elliot, I see Elliot’s physicality and explosive style winning out.

Ko has impressed me in the 2-0 start to his UFC career. He showcased a strong wrestling game, and great control from top position in two shutout wins. Ko's physicality is tough to deal with in grappling exchanges, and I expect him to land takedowns in this matchup. Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded MMA player with athleticism, who can throw kicks from the outside, switch stances and mix up his game, but I don't think he will be able to faze Ko. Ko fights from the southpaw stance and fires a hard left cross down the pipe, that should get Lebosnoyani's respect on the feet. Ko’s in-and-out movement at range, fight I.Q, and physical grappling style will win out again.

This featured prelim between flyweight prospects has the potential to be an entertaining battle. While both have promising futures, the 28-year-old Delgado has more tools at his disposal and more high-level experience. His win over stubborn veteran Andre Fili is easily the biggest name on either fighter's resume. The 24-year-old Bashi is an excellent wrestler/grappler, but we expect Delgado to fend him off and use his superior stand-up game to earn the victory.

Cannonier has had an uneven UFC journey through three weight classes during his 11-8 run with the promotion. The 42-year-old has lost three of his last four and has been relegated to a gatekeeper position role in the middleweight division. Even so, he has faced a tough gauntlet of opponents including No. 3-ranked Nassourdine Imavov and No. 6-ranked Caio Borrahlo. The 30-year-old Duncan is a rising prospect who has won four straight but his most notable win came against fading journeyman Roman Dolidze in March. One trend we’ve seen time and again of late is the prospect getting way too much respect in the MMA odds against the old guard, and we believe Cannonier is worth a sprinkle at these lucrative odds.

This main-card opener features what should be an entertaining battle of featherweight prospects. Both are accomplished submission artists who also don't mind slugging it out, though McMillen seems to have a preference for the stand-up battle. However, we believe Montes is a little more refined and the superior grappler. McMillen has received a little more hype, which we believe has inflated a price that should probably be the other way around.

Big number (has come down) so I raise the wager for the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night Oklahoma City. Former middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis had an 11-fight winning streak snapped last time out but close against the excellent Khamzat Chimaev, who is ranked as the No. 1 middleweight contender. Du Plessis is No. 2 and has never lost back-to-back fights. The ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman fights for the first time in almost a year and is 1-3 in his past four. Usman competes at middleweight for only the second time in his career, and he lost to Chimaev in December 2023 in that one.

The former middleweight champion du Plessis opened in the -350 range only to see this price plummet as early support favors Usman. The former welterweight champion is now 39 and making a last-gasp effort at title contention, and it feels like the UFC is giving him this opportunity as a career achievement reward. Even though DDP struggled to stop the chain wrestling of Khamzat Chimaev in suffering his first UFC loss and surrendering his belt, we believe he still clears everyone else in the division. His advantages in youth, strength and versatility will help him fend off Usman and he should put his opponent away in the third or fourth. Look for TKO/KO odds of around +250 if you want to avoid this ML price.

Felipe Franco has early power and an early wrestling/grappling edge. I don’t think he can put it together for a full 15 minutes, though, and I like Levi Rodrigues to be the better striker with the higher pace and better cardio. All five of Rodrigues' MMA wins have come by KO/TKO. Give me Rodrigues to survive early and get another knockout in Rounds 2 or 3.

This should be a fun fight. Tommy McMillen is a high-volume striker, and he can bring a pace that is hard to keep up with. Alberto Montes might have the power edge, and he could finish with an early sub. The longer this fight goes though, the more it shifts into McMillen’s favor. I like McMillen to get a late stoppage.

Jared Cannonier still has big power, but at 42, I think he would only have a KO shot. Christian Leroy Duncan is the better overall striker, and he will have a speed and possible power edge in this matchup. I like CLD to win by decision if he doesn’t get a KO along the way.

I do think Kamaru Usman will have wrestling success in this fight, but I don’t think he can do it for 25 minutes. Dricus Du Plessis is going to have a big size and power advantage, and I like him to be the better overall striker. I’d like Usman’s chances more in 3 rounds, but I think DDP catches him at some point and gets a TKO.

We'll take the discount on McKinney, who had been priced around -150 until the last couple of days. The price move appeared to be spawned by Green expressing upset with McKinney, whom he viewed as an ally, accepting the fight offer. The seemingly ageless Green has won three straight at age 39 and has faced tougher competition. But we'll side with the ultra-explosive 31-year-old McKinney, who appears to be improving his technique despite his reckless reputation.

This matchup pits the power and relentless pressure style of Saint-Denis, against the hard-nosed grit and skillful grappling of Pimblett. Saint-Denis creates chaos and pushes a non-stop pace that can drown his foes. Pimblett is coming off a loss to now-champion Justin Gaethje, but showed incredible toughness and determination in a competitive fight. Saint-Denis’s fighting style is likely to force grappling exchanges, which is where I think Pimblett can thrive. Saint-Denis gets reckless with his takedown attempts, which may allow Pimblett to use defensive submissions and sweeps to end up on top. Pimblett’s knees, uppercuts, and shots up the middle can also do damage. I expect this to be a bloody fight, with Pimblett’s toughness and slick grappling leading him to a win.

The gritty and resilient Bautista has made an impressive run to the top 5 at bantamweight, and he's been calling for this rematch with Sandhagen, who handed him a loss in his UFC debut, for some time. Although Sandhagen's 0-4 record in title fights and eliminators illustrates his ceiling, he's settled in as a top-5 gatekeeper and this matchup favors him. He should use his length to stay on the outside and Bautista will struggle to close the distance for both striking and grappling. Look for Sandhagen to win a lackluster but clear decision.

The all-action Royval has settled into the role of flyweight top-5 gatekeeper and we think he's being disrespected in these odds. The one-time title challenger has impressive wins over former champion Brandon Moreno and recent title challenger Tatsuro Taira, and he battled current champion Joshua Van in an epic three-round classic last June. Kavanagh has shown potential but is getting a little too much respect coming off a win over a now-washed Moreno in February. Royval has delivered in underdog spots previously and we expect him to do it again.