The danger siding with the Chiefs is the threat of the backdoor cover, which seems to happen constantly in their games. However, the Broncos defense is so poor that Kansas City may lead by a margin negating the impact of a late score. KC’s defense is underrated, and it should thrive at home on a short week even against Denver’s competent offense. The Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in their 15-game series winning streak, while the Broncos are 2-12 SU in their last 14 road games overall (and 0-4-1 ATS so far this season). I suggest buying down the half point to -10 if you can get it at -115 odds as 6% of NFL games end on that number, the fourth-most frequent margin.

My simulations make the total 44.3 in this matchup, with Denver struggling to score touchdowns. The winds are just strong enough to impact deep passes and field goal attempts, both of which are critical for the Denver side to score. Kansas City will look to get in and get out with a home win on a short week. I expect a heavy dose of Isiah Pacheco and a few of the classic 6-7 minute drives from the Chiefs' offense that keep the clock rolling.

Skyy Moore could be the odd man out on Thursday Night Football, at least in terms of receiving. With weather affecting the passing game, Moore could get more touches in the running game. His receiving role has diminished with the emergence of Rashee Rice. I priced this at -210 so I will lay the current price.

Wilson surpassed this mark in both games last year against the Chiefs and should be position to do so again Thursday regardless of game script. The Chiefs have been solid against the pass at 204 ypg, but that number is a bit skewed by the passing-game clunkers offered up by the Jags and Bears.

Suggesting it's a "good spot" to bet on the Broncos feels like a borderline oxymoron this season, but the setup can't get much more favorable for a club that has yet to cover a game this season. The Broncos lost both matchup by 9 combined points last season and will be desperate to show some signs of life under Sean Payton. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is hobbled but expected to play and numerous defensive players are also banged up. This screams flat spot for a team coming off high-profile matchups against the Jets and Vikings.

Let me say right out of the gate, Russell Wilson has played much better this season than he gets credit for. Passer rating over 100, 11/2 TD/INT ratio and nearly 70% completion percentage. His numbers are actually better than Mahomes' so far this season. That being said tonight he'll face an uphill battle, most because of Denver's porous run defense. If KC plays normal Chiefs football, Russ could find himself extending too much in the 2nd half and begin forcing passes which is where we cash INT props in.

I like this play in almost any game script we see tonight. If the Chiefs are up, they'll take the free points to continue extending their lead. If it's tight, every single point matters and KC will take them. Even if Kansas City is down they'll grab points when they can as this offense has proven time and time again they'll get the ball back late for the final drive to win it. Certainly a little juicy here but there are more than a few reasons for that.

We noted it might be windy in our Chiefs player prop pick, so in theory that might cut down on deep throws. Sutton has easily the lowest average depth of target at 9.5 yards on the Broncos and has only two catches of at least 20 yards so far this year. He was completely invisible Sunday vs. the Jets.

Overall Jerry Jeudy’s start to the season does not look stellar on paper. He has just 208 receiving yards, and Denver has not developed a true number one wide receiver. Yet, Jeudy has shined in prime time games. Additionally, he has had a big play over the last three games of 23, 25, and 46 yards. Take his over as Russ Wilson finds Jeudy enough to clear this prop.

The Chiefs game plan tonight is jump out to a lead, use the run (and short-passing game) to control the clock and move on with a division win. Which is exactly why I like Kadarius Toney receiving yards tonight. He's starting to gain trust with Mahomes and Reid and his targets show that. Tonight is an excellent opportunity for him to fit perfectly in a shallow air yards pass game designed to be an extension of the run and go. With his speed he could eclipse this number in one catch.

Denver is not that bad offensively. It’s their defense where they struggle. The Broncos are allowing 469.4 total yards of offense of offense this season and 49 points per game on the road. However, weather could be a factor here tonight and both teams may lean heavier on their run games. Travis Kelce is still dealing with an ankle injury; Kansas City is on a short week and it’s a divisional matchup so hopefully the Broncos defense can give a respectable effort.

The weather reports are not looking great for this game tonight. There’s projected to be 30 to 40 MPH wind gusts and 14 MPH wind throughout the game tonight. Passing the ball effectively may be a challenge for both teams so they both will have to attack through their ground game and keep the clock moving.

This line is steaming to the over quickly. Justin Watson averages over 20 yards a reception and he is 4-1 to the over this season. He's an explosive player that really only needs one or two receptions to get here. Watson seems to be gaining the trust of Patrick Mahomes more than Sky Moore, we have him projected for 39 yards.

This weather calls for a short pass game. The wind could be effecting the deep balls and result in Isiah Pachecho getting a few dump-offs. His number is pretty similar to Jerick Mckinnon, meaning oddsmakers are understanding there isn't one sole receiving back here. Pachecho should get plenty of snaps early against an awful Denver run defense. He should have the capability to go over this with one or two good receptions. He's hit over this line in two of his last three games. The model has him projected for 23 yards.

Could be a little more run-heavy for the Chiefs tonight because it's apparently going to be a bit windy and Travis Kelce perhaps isn't 100 percent, although I thought about taking him for an anytime TD with a certain famous someone expected to be in attendance again. TK must be a stud! Pacheco has scored in 3 straight. I have no idea if Taylor Swift has backup singers, but you could put 11 of them -- or, say, J-Lo and the Fly Girls -- out there tonight in place of the Denver starting defense and it probably would be an upgrade against the run. That D has been historically bad.

All those points look tempting with Denver but they haven’t covered a game yet this season and they haven’t beat the Chiefs in the last 15 meetings. Patrick Mahomes was a sophomore at Texas Tech the last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs. The best angle in this game is the shrinking total because the Broncos can’t stop anyone. They’re last in points allowed, total defense, and rushing yards allowed and now they’ve let go pass rushers Randy Gregory and Frank Clark. The last three meetings have been close with Denver covering all three and all three also getting Over. The best angle here is the Over.

Over 47 - Kansas City has owned Denver beginning with Patrick Mahmoes first career start and I hope this trend continutes. Denver is 4-1 over in their first four games because of a very poor defense. The Broncos have allowed 28 or more points in four of their five games including 70 at Miami and 31 last week to the NY Jets. The Chiefs offense continues to get closer to mid season form, ranking 10th in yards per play. I look for the Chiefs to have a big game tonight. Added bouns is it looks like Travis Kelce will give it a go. Russell Wilson has 2 or more touchdown passes in four of his five starts.

Broncos inside linebacker Josey Jewell, the defensive signal-caller, is off to a relatively slow start (24 tackles in four games) after making 128 tackles last year. He missed the Week 4 win at Chicago with a hip injury, and didn't play much in the blowout loss at Miami. He was on the injury report last week before making five tackles against the Jets. Jewell is off the injury report this week and should stay very busy against an expected run-heavy Chiefs' offense. Moreover, K.C. targets the middle of the field a lot and that's the area Jewell patrols.

With Travis Kelce fully expected to play through his ankle injury, there aren't that many K.C. wide receiver targets to go around. Skyy Moore has drawn two targets in each of the past two games, totaling 11 yards. He must vie for targets with Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross, Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. This is a game in which the Chiefs could lead comfortably and lean heavily on the run.

Isiah Pacheco should run wild against a Denver rushing defense that allows the league’s highest explosive run rate, most missed tackles forced per attempt, and 3rd highest yards per contact per attempt. To translate - their rush defense has been terrible this season. In the last four weeks, Pacheco is averaging 16 carries for 76 yards per game and I wouldn't be surprised to see him break 100 with game flow likely in his favor.

Please Sean Payton, play Marvin Mims more! He was your second round pick for goodness sakes and already has catches of 38, 48, and 60 yards. He's been targeted by Russell Wilson on 24% of his routes run, the problem is, he's only running routes 27% of the time. On Thursday night, with the Broncos likely in catch-up mode, I think Mims catches 2-3 passes and exceeds this number easily as he has in 3/5 games this season.

The Chiefs have a spicy schedule coming up with Denver twice sandwiching the Chargers followed by a matchup in Germany against the Dolphins. Those are four HUGE games for the season and Andy Reid won't want to put a ton on tape against Denver in a short week if he can avoid it. The spread is too tricky but I think you see the Chiefs running game and defense shorten this game as much as possible.

Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has gotten at least 17 touches in three straight games, scoring in each. He's facing a Broncos defense that's allowed an NFL-high 5.9 yards per carry. Denver has given up eight rushing scores, tied for third-most. With the Chiefs laying double digits, I'm expecting K.C. to emphasize the run throughout and for Pacheco to score at least once. If you shop around you can find this prop as low as even money.

It's been eight years and 15 losses in a row for Denver vs. KC, as not even Hank Stram's Texans/Chiefs of the 1960s, who won 19 of 20 meetings vs. the Broncos in the AFL days, ever managed a win streak this long in the series. Denver, however, has covered four of the last five meetings, but the difference between the recent Vic Fangio, Nathaniel Hackett, and even Jerry Rosburg's Broncos was that those editions were playing some nasty defense, which Sean Payton's Denver definitely is not. Blame DC Vance Joseph if you wish, but that sets up a nice "over" chance at Arrowhead, with Denver not surprisingly trending that way (four straight) as have been the last three in this series.

The Broncos have been one of the worst defenses ever through five weeks, but they oddly may get a bit of a reprieve on the road against defending MVP Patrick Mahomes. That's because Travis Kelce is dealing with an injury that may keep him out or severely limited on the short week, but also because weather conditions call for 20+ mph winds throughout. Kansas City's receiving corps has been incredibly disappointing so far, and these conditions aren't going to help their performance any. A focus on running the ball will shorten the game and make covering a huge number even tougher for the Chiefs. The lookahead was Chiefs -10.5, and with the Kelce injury and weather conditions, it has to drop before kickoff.

This spot is a fantastic free roll. For starters Javonte Williams is likely less than 100% having suffered a hip injury that has cost him a game. Prior to the injury, Williams looked like he was running in mud as evidenced by a 3.6 YPC. In his absence Jaleel Mcglaughlin has been the Broncos most effective RB by far and earned more touches, in addition to Semaje Perine. KC has only allowed two opposing RBs this season to eclipse this total (David Montgomery and Breece Hall). The Chiefs could also force Denver to abandon the run. There are just too many ways this goes under and if Williams doesn't suit up its simply voided. Love this spot.

Taking a shot on the under here. KC's offense has struggled, largely as a result of their inability to find a secondary pass catcher emerge behind Travis Kelce. Kelce has also looked mortal this season and isn't playing a full compliment on snaps. I believe the Chiefs will look to lean heavily on their ground game and look to get out of TNF unscathed. The Chiefs defense should have no problem limiting Russell Wilson as well.