Allan's Past Picks
When Trevor Lawrence locks in on Christian Kirk big things tend to happen and I expect to see that tonight. Kirk has been targeted 24 times over Jacksonville's last three games and not only does Christian get the looks, he has big play ability too. Lawrence loves finding Kirk on the skinny post and he knows what to do from there. Volume and distance should both be our friends tonight.
The Jaguars find themselves in a spot where if they win tonight not only do they solidify themselves atop the AFC South but actually the AFC as a whole as they would grab (for this week at least) the No. 1 spot in the playoff picture. Should Jacksonville do that, Travis Etienne is the man for the job. Yes there are some rib issues with his health but if it were terrible he wouldn't be going. Let the stallion run tonight.
Hard to believe we're already at the end of Week 13 but every bettor knows the NFL season goes quick. As for players and coaches what they know right about now is that the final stretch is quickly approaching and the Jaguars have an incredibly important game tonight to secure a win. Houston keeps winning which is keeping Jacksonville on its toes for the AFC South so expect Trevor Lawrence to use his arm and feet tonight. The big cat won't run much, but enough and we should cash a nice attainable number here.
Right out of the gate let's acknowledge the juice here is high, totally get it if this isn't your favorite call in the playbook. That said, I'm gonna take a shot here at a very attainable number and look to steal $50 from the books. The entire offense has been fired in Carolina and that means we should see Bryce Young do Bryce Young things today, specifically with a toned-down offense and Run-Pass Options galore. You don't want to run him too much, but if there were ever a day to do it, that Amazon package has arrived on your doorstep. Owner David Tepper just fired the head coach because he wants to see Bryce be Bryce. Good enough for me.
Arizona heads to Pittsburgh taking on the Steelers today and, well, there are some odd matchups in this one. One that sticks out even more should be Kyler Murray on the ground. Murray's legs are already a focal point of the offense but today we could steal a few cheap attempts as well with such a strong pass rush from Pittsburgh. Kyler will get flushed out of the pocket all day long.
Give Russell Wilson and the Broncos credit, what a massive turnaround from the disaster last season became. Sean Payton and Russ have found a balanced attack for success and that includes Mr. Unlimited using his legs as well. A few rushing attempts by design, a couple by necessity and kneel downs to win the game count as well. Good number here.
Yes, we're dealing with a backup QB situation for SMU but the kid has talent and (most importantly) snaps under his belt. He'll find soft spots in the Tulane secondary with the pass and have success moving the football. Tulane is very balanced offensively and while SMU boasts a decent run defense, good luck, the Wave can score when needed. Should be a fun back and forth affair, sit back and enjoy every TD scored.
The Chiefs enter Sunday looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Philadelphia and has to do it against a division rival on the road. Notice the end for KC last week? When the job needs to get done, Patrick Mahomes trusts...well Patrick Mahomes. He'll not only run when designed to, but also when he needs it AND when flushed by Maxx Crosby. Kneel downs count as attempts too, play it.
This may not be a huge game in the grand scheme of NFL Week 12 but it is for taking ownership of the AFC South. Houston puts themselves nicely to take it with a win and Jacksonville would darn near solidify their standing with the dub. So really there's only one way to wager this matchup and that is with points, because their defenses aren't taking it.
You know the Spider Man meme of them pointing at each other? That pretty much reflects these two teams currently. Neither really puts up many points, both offensive lines are atrocious and each young QB is running for their lives. That's why I like the Titans to at least get a few field goals up from Mr. Automatic. Weather will be nice and Mike Vrabel is desperate for a win. At home. Nick Folk is about all he can trust, alongside his punter.
This game is an absolute mess. FSU enters the first full week after the injury to their heart and soul QB in a game that has meaning in terms of staying in the CFB Playoff hunt but their spot in the ACC title game next week is already solidified. That said though, FSU now HAS to protect their QB at all costs or the dream is over. Expect the 'Noles run game and defense. Florida has a backup QB as well and faces a great defense, so run the football. Long story short, running clock on both sides and a ton of punts from the 50.
Close your eyes and think on this for a second. LSU is at home, a QB that could be invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony and a head coach who would like to end the regular season on a high note with a happy fanbase. Texas A&M just fired their coach, players would rather be home with family and friends for the holiday and most likely have started looking at transfer portal options just in case. LSU has every reason to blow the doors off the Aggies, good enough for me.
Louisville enters rivalry week with really nothing tangible to play for, the Cards are already in next week's ACC Championship. However note we said tangible. Kentucky treats Louisville like little brother all year long and there is no love lost between these two programs. The Wildcats may have checked out after last week's loss to South Carolina which makes this bet even more enticing.
I feel like the neighborhood dog chasing a car here but OUT OF PRINCIPLE the Over has to be taken. Ok that is out of the way, now for the actual game, Iowa really has nothing to gain here. I'm not saying they just lay down, you know Ferentz isn't having that, but I do believe Nebraska could find a few extra points. Not to mention Nebraska turns the ball over like crazy, Iowa could find some points themselves.
This might be the most fun NFL game on Thanksgiving Day. Jordan Love and the Packers' offense are picking it up quickly, averaging roughly 21 PPG over their last three. We know Detroit can score and especially after last week's near disaster, don't expect four turnovers from the Lions today. Playing on a holiday is fun early in the day, sitting in a hotel room waiting for a night game is the opposite and usually leads to 1st half sludge. Green Bay and Detroit will be ready to go first, should be fun. Happy Thanksgiving!