Allan's Past Picks
This may not be a huge game in the grand scheme of NFL Week 12 but it is for taking ownership of the AFC South. Houston puts themselves nicely to take it with a win and Jacksonville would darn near solidify their standing with the dub. So really there's only one way to wager this matchup and that is with points, because their defenses aren't taking it.
The Chiefs enter Sunday looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Philadelphia and has to do it against a division rival on the road. Notice the end for KC last week? When the job needs to get done, Patrick Mahomes trusts...well Patrick Mahomes. He'll not only run when designed to, but also when he needs it AND when flushed by Maxx Crosby. Kneel downs count as attempts too, play it.
You know the Spider Man meme of them pointing at each other? That pretty much reflects these two teams currently. Neither really puts up many points, both offensive lines are atrocious and each young QB is running for their lives. That's why I like the Titans to at least get a few field goals up from Mr. Automatic. Weather will be nice and Mike Vrabel is desperate for a win. At home. Nick Folk is about all he can trust, alongside his punter.
This might be the most fun NFL game on Thanksgiving Day. Jordan Love and the Packers' offense are picking it up quickly, averaging roughly 21 PPG over their last three. We know Detroit can score and especially after last week's near disaster, don't expect four turnovers from the Lions today. Playing on a holiday is fun early in the day, sitting in a hotel room waiting for a night game is the opposite and usually leads to 1st half sludge. Green Bay and Detroit will be ready to go first, should be fun. Happy Thanksgiving!
Louisville enters rivalry week with really nothing tangible to play for, the Cards are already in next week's ACC Championship. However note we said tangible. Kentucky treats Louisville like little brother all year long and there is no love lost between these two programs. The Wildcats may have checked out after last week's loss to South Carolina which makes this bet even more enticing.
This game is an absolute mess. FSU enters the first full week after the injury to their heart and soul QB in a game that has meaning in terms of staying in the CFB Playoff hunt but their spot in the ACC title game next week is already solidified. That said though, FSU now HAS to protect their QB at all costs or the dream is over. Expect the 'Noles run game and defense. Florida has a backup QB as well and faces a great defense, so run the football. Long story short, running clock on both sides and a ton of punts from the 50.
I feel like the neighborhood dog chasing a car here but OUT OF PRINCIPLE the Over has to be taken. Ok that is out of the way, now for the actual game, Iowa really has nothing to gain here. I'm not saying they just lay down, you know Ferentz isn't having that, but I do believe Nebraska could find a few extra points. Not to mention Nebraska turns the ball over like crazy, Iowa could find some points themselves.
Close your eyes and think on this for a second. LSU is at home, a QB that could be invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony and a head coach who would like to end the regular season on a high note with a happy fanbase. Texas A&M just fired their coach, players would rather be home with family and friends for the holiday and most likely have started looking at transfer portal options just in case. LSU has every reason to blow the doors off the Aggies, good enough for me.
The Eagles defense only allows 66.3 rushing yards per game and they're going to try and put Kansas City's offense in pass mode only. It could work, also could be a bad decision, however what it will likely do is force the Chiefs to use Mahomes on the ground as well...anything to light a spark and stay balanced. Not to mention Philly's defensive front is doing work lighting up stat sheets with sacks, which is another reason why I love this prop, Patrick Mahomes will get flushed out of the pocket and forced to take off. Great chess match tonight.
The Super Bowl rematch is going to be legit and will feature two of the best QB's in the league...however both might find themselves having to get the run game going on their own. Kansas City boasts an interesting defensive front, they can usually stop *one* aspect but not both. Philadelphia can hurt you either way. Long story short, look for Jalen Hurts to be the disruption for KC, air to ground back to air and back to ground. He'll force them all over the field, not to mention attempts on 3rd and 4th down with the "tush push." We have many ways to get this done.
The game plan for the Lions today should mirror the game plan bettors have in this one, don't overthink it. Jahmyr Gibbs has been the workhorse for Detroit and he should see an increase in attempts both on the ground and in the air today. Gibbs has three straight games with 100+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Good day to make it four in a row.
Lamar Jackson is having a career year completion percentage wise and when you watch the film it's by design from new Ravens OC Todd Monken. Simply put, Monken has eliminated Jackson's low-percentaged zones and put focus on the areas where he succeeds. Timing and placement is everything and it's been great...but when he's disrupted it goes south quick, which should happen tonight.
Remember a few weeks ago when Will Levis made his Titans debut and threw four TD's and beat the Falcons 28-23? Yeah, he's played two games after that and thrown two picks plus has been sacked eight times...oh and hasn't thrown a single TD pass since either. Say what you will about the Jaguars but they collect interceptions like we all used to with baseball cards. No joke, Jacksonville has 18 takeaways this season, tied for most in the NFL. Tennessee has lost nine straight road games and has gone 27-straight games without scoring 30+ points. Rebuild in Nashville, record picks in Jacksonville.
It's hard to trust either of these teams but Kentucky has been the more consistent team throughout the season. I believe their team is better, talent better plus coaching as well. Nothing against Shane Beamer and South Carolina but this season has been a roller coaster. The Gamecocks offense is one dimensional and turns the ball over. Kentucky's offense is balanced and can control the clock on the ground. As long as Big Blue doesn't make killer mistakes to cost themselves, or give up cheap points to SC, Kentucky should handle their business.
Missouri lit a spark last week against Tennessee dismantling the Vols at home and I think the game plan Saturday against Florida will look much the same. Force the Gators offense to become one dimensional while also dominating the time of possession game so that Florida's offense really has no time to get any rhythm. Mizzou can run the ball, Mizzou can throw the ball, a very balanced attack. For defenders, that gets really annoying in the 2nd half when you're down double-digits, those first downs keep coming...as do points as well. Take Mizzou at home.