Mike's Picks (4 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
My simulations make Kentucky -8 favorites in this matchup with Texas A&M. Kentucky has the rest advantage, good crowd support in Nashville, and distinct edges offensively and at the free throw line. Lay it at -5 or better.
Butler enters the conference tournament well-rested in a rematch with Xavier. Butler is the better free throw shooting team and one of the best teams in CBB in terms of defensive free throw rate. My simulations make Butler -3 favorites on the neutral court. I will share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.
I love both of these teams in the tournament this year but the number is too wide in this matchup. I make Kentucky a +6.5 underdog here with the extra three points being a pretty critical number going up to 4 full possessions. Lock in the +9.5 (-110) on DraftKings. I would still play the +8.5 on FanDuel and elsewhere. I will share more on the Early Edge Saturday morning.
I like Tennessee -4.5 (-115) on FanDuel or -5 (-110) on DraftKings. I make this line -7.5 for Tennessee despite the road matchup. The Vols lost 63-59 in the first matchup but ShotQuality data suggests they should have won by 11 points. Contrasting styles and Tennessee has a strong rebounding edge. I'll share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.
My simulations make this total 155. I will share more Saturday morning on the Early Edge.
I make the Sooners +6.5 road underdogs in this matchup. Both teams are strong defensively, and Oklahoma is the better free throw shooting team. I will discuss this play further on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.
Early road tip for the Hoosiers are playing through a lost season at this point. This team ranks outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive rating, and they fall outside the top 330 in free throw percentage. Penn State will make their free throws at home. My simulations make this spread -6.
My simulations suggest the wrong team is favored here at the open. I make Nebraska -3 favorites on the road. I will share more Wednesday morning on the Early Edge show.
I make this line +4.5 for Marquette. I will discuss this play further on the Early Edge live show Saturday morning.
Generous number here as I make this a 5 point game but through some key spots in a CBB game. The reason for the line is Iowa State has been extremely strong at home with a 12-2 ATS record. Texas Tech is comfortable with the pace and the play good defense.
Shop this line as I have played it personally at -1 (-110) on DraftKings. I make Seton Hall -3 home favorites in this matchup. Seton Hall is a very good free throw shooting team at almost 79% and they do a great job keeping the opponent off the line as they rank top 15 in defensive free throw rate. That combination works well on a home court in college basketball. I'm on the Pirates.