ANALYSIS: My simulations make the Packers -0.9 points better on a neutral field. Say what you want about home field advantage returning in 2021, but it's not worth anywhere close to 4.5 points implied by this line. Rodgers hasn't been sharp yet but I think that corrects itself very quickly, especially against the team he grew up wanting to play for. Take the points with Green Bay.

ANALYSIS: I love backing good teams that are visiting the Los Angeles area as the home field advantage simply isn't significant. I make the Bucs -2.8 points better in this "road" matchup against the Rams. The Rams will struggle to run the football in this matchup and that is going to put a little too much pressure on Stafford. I'm also skeptical of the Rams defense after watching the Colts and Bears have success moving the football. Back Tom Brady here.

ANALYSIS: The Vikings can't really afford to drop another game but this is a brutal spot for them against a hungry Seattle team. I don't trust this Vikings defense against Wilson, Lockett, Metcalf and Carson. My simulations make the Seahawks -3.7 points better on the road as I'm expecting a big day from DK Metcalf. Lay it.

ANALYSIS: The market had this one correct when it opened at 59.5 as my simulations have this at 60.4 total points. These two teams are going to throw the ball a lot in this matchup that features two very capable QB with Max Johnson vs. Will Rogers. LSU will be without their best CB Derek Stingley in this matchup and that will only help Will Rogers and company throw the ball down the field. Take the Over again this week with LSU on the field.

ANALYSIS: I'm also going to play the Cowboys on the moneyline. This game is priced as if this a true road game for Dallas against a team with significant home field advantage. This will be more like a home game for Dallas than it will the Chargers in LA. I make the Cowboys -1.1 points better in what I'm going to call a neutral site game against the Chargers. Dak was fantastic in week 1, and should continue that success in a better matchup. Look for some success with Zeke and Pollard to really open things up for Dak, Cooper, Lamb and the tight ends.