Expect this SNF total to move closer to kickoff...

Locking in this number early...

Kyler Murray is a significant upgrade at quarterback for the Vikings. The home-field advantage should be enough to help this defense put the offense in a position to succeed. This price point is right on my fair value number at 55%, but this is one I’m comfortable leaning into.

Joe Burrow and the skill-position players are great, but I have some pretty major questions about the offensive line and the defensive side of the ball. I think Tampa is a touch underrated in this one. At +4, it’s a buy in Week 1 with a healthy Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving offensively.

The Colts are surprisingly healthy to start the season on both sides of the ball. I like the offensive line and run game quite a bit here, but the defense should be stout too with Gardner, Ward, and Buckner. Baltimore has a ton of upside, no doubt, but I don’t love the road start while breaking in a new coaching staff and offensive play-calling. Give me the Colts +3.5 at home.

Do I feel great about laying the road chalk in Week 1? No. However, I really like Chicago offensively here with additional time to prepare for Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. The weapons are strong, with Burden and Loveland available to go here. Chicago is undervalued to start the season. I put this on the other side of -4

Another uncomfortable click incoming, and full disclosure here: while I have this at 7.5 in the simulations, my motivation here is significantly more tied to my survivor portfolio, which is substantial in terms of buy-in ($10K+). This is sort of a pseudo-hedge against a relatively large Week 1 position on Jacksonville in contests. If you’re looking to just play a single game, this could be one to skip. I’m always looking at everything I do as a portfolio across all of my DFS exposure, contests, etc. GL!

I make the Jets a road favorite in Nashville. Similar to the Vikings, I think the Jets get a meaningful upgrade at QB and clearly have the skill-position players to find success against average or below-average defensive units. Give me the Jets +1.5.

Backing the Seahawks to win here at just under 62%, as I have this closer to 64.5%, or about -182. There’s been a lot of talk about Seattle losing Kenneth Walker and playing without Zach Charbonnet, but I like Jadarian Price on the ground, and George Holani gives them a solid option in the passing game. This number is a little short for Seattle at home.

Willing to back Elmer Rodriguez in his MLB debut today. He was great in the WBC and so far in Triple-A this season: 21.1 IP | 20 SO. Splitting this bet with some exposure at -118 on ML and some on -1.5 (+140). I have some concerns about Nathan Eovaldi's hard contact early this season.

Willing to back Elmer Rodriguez in his MLB debut today. He was great in the WBC and so far in Triple-A this season: 21.1 IP | 20 SO. Splitting this bet with some exposure at -118 on the ML and some on -1.5 (+140). I have some concerns about Nathan Eovaldi's hard contact early this season.

MGM trading -110 on this while others trading -120 to -124. I'm also playing -1.5 (+145)

Playing -1.5 (+145) as I have it closer to +122. Splitting position here and -110 on the moneyline.