ANALYSIS: My simulations give a median total of 8.4 runs in this matchup between Bassitt and Bumgarner. The shift to the National League Park is nice for Bassitt who will no longer have to face a designated hitter. The combination of the humidor and weaker Arizona lineup makes the Under the top play in this game.

ANALYSIS: The White Sox are going to be slightly overvalued most of the season as there is a lot of excitement around the team. I've very bullish on Indians pitcher Tristan McKenzie and his 13.7 K/9 rate against right handed pitchers. I expect that number to regress too 11.5 but we're still talking about true elite strikeout upside. I make this game much close to a pick'em as my model has the Indians winning 49.3 percent of simulations.

ANALYSIS: Detroit offers nice value at +150 or more against Logan Allen. This Tigers lineup is set up relatively well to hit left-handed pitching. My model makes this line +141 as I have them winning 41.5 percent of simulations behind Jose Urena. Take the Tigers.

ANALYSIS: The Rays offer value again this afternoon thanks to the public name value of the New York Yankees. At home in Tampa is one of the best places in all of baseball for Chris Archer to face this Yankees lineup, especially if Judge and Urshela are out again. Domingo German has flashed major upside at times, but I question his ability to pitch deep into this game, which is what the Yankees will need after being forced to the bullpen early yesterday. My model suggests this line should be -113 as I have the Rays winning 53% of simulations in this situation.

ANALYSIS: I played this game at +125 this morning and would play it down to +105. I have the Rays winning 49 percent of simulations which implies they should only be +104 underdogs in this matchup with Corey Kluber. Kluber was okay in his first start, but he wasn't great, and really struggled with right-handed hitters. Rich Hill should thrive in the strong pitching environment in Tampa. Take the Rays as home underdogs.