I make this number -3.5 and expect it to close at -3. Denver is very banged up defensively and should struggle to get off the field against this Seattle team. I also expect the Seattle defense to consistently put the offense in favorable situations with great starting field position throughout the game.

Playing the -104 available on Kalshi at -4.5 here. Strong movement off the look-aheads, where I still priced KC -6 on the road. Look for Rashee Rice to have a strong game and KC to cover.

While I don't love fading Burrow and the Bengals' passing attack on the road, I do like the Jags offensively here. I think Cincinnati will continue to struggle to get off the field defensively on third down, and Tuten should have just enough success on the ground. This should be a true pick'em in this spot. Give me the +2.5 at +100 or better. +104 available currently on Kalshi.

Jumping on this SNF under 48.5 here, as I think this number will come down to 47 by kickoff. I expect to see a Chiefs offense that feeds Kenneth Walker and gets back to milking half a quarter with a single possession like we saw in previous years. I also think the Colts will feature a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor in this one. This total feels inflated by what Baltimore did to the Colts defense in Week 1. Give me the under here at 48.5.

Locking in Dallas -3.5 on FanDuel right now. This line should be -4.5 and almost certainly closes -4 or greater. The Giants were ready to play in the opener after significant time to prepare. The Cowboys are interesting, as I have a significant gap in my rating on this team at home indoors vs. outdoor games. The comfortable conditions indoors are favorable offensively for the passing and kicking games, which are legitimate weapons, especially in this matchup with the Commanders. Give the Giants a lot of credit for their performance in the season opener. I expect a much better defensive effort from Dallas in the home opener.

It's no secret that Ben Johnson and the Bears want to set the scoring record this season. The good news is the defense is questionable enough that they'll likely have to score 30+ often to win games. Brian Flores can be tough defensively, but Ben Johnson is no stranger to this division. The market isn't reacting quickly enough to these Bears totals, IMO. This should be 28.5 and will almost certainly close north of the o26.5 being offered at FanDuel. Classic pay-to-find-out spot.

Locking in the Jets +4.5 here, as my simulations make them just a 1.5-point home underdog against a Packers team that I’m not high on at all right now. The Jets will be able to move the football in both the running and passing games, and the home crowd will be ready for the home opener. I expect this line to close around +3.5, so I want to be on the other side of +4 while we still can.

Kyler Murray is a significant upgrade at quarterback for the Vikings. The home-field advantage should be enough to help this defense put the offense in a position to succeed. This price point is right on my fair value number at 55%, but this is one I’m comfortable leaning into.

Joe Burrow and the skill-position players are great, but I have some pretty major questions about the offensive line and the defensive side of the ball. I think Tampa is a touch underrated in this one. At +4, it’s a buy in Week 1 with a healthy Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving offensively.

The Colts are surprisingly healthy to start the season on both sides of the ball. I like the offensive line and run game quite a bit here, but the defense should be stout too with Gardner, Ward, and Buckner. Baltimore has a ton of upside, no doubt, but I don’t love the road start while breaking in a new coaching staff and offensive play-calling. Give me the Colts +3.5 at home.

Do I feel great about laying the road chalk in Week 1? No. However, I really like Chicago offensively here with additional time to prepare for Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. The weapons are strong, with Burden and Loveland available to go here. Chicago is undervalued to start the season. I put this on the other side of -4

Another uncomfortable click incoming, and full disclosure here: while I have this at 7.5 in the simulations, my motivation here is significantly more tied to my survivor portfolio, which is substantial in terms of buy-in ($10K+). This is sort of a pseudo-hedge against a relatively large Week 1 position on Jacksonville in contests. If you’re looking to just play a single game, this could be one to skip. I’m always looking at everything I do as a portfolio across all of my DFS exposure, contests, etc. GL!

I make the Jets a road favorite in Nashville. Similar to the Vikings, I think the Jets get a meaningful upgrade at QB and clearly have the skill-position players to find success against average or below-average defensive units. Give me the Jets +1.5.

Backing the Seahawks to win here at just under 62%, as I have this closer to 64.5%, or about -182. There’s been a lot of talk about Seattle losing Kenneth Walker and playing without Zach Charbonnet, but I like Jadarian Price on the ground, and George Holani gives them a solid option in the passing game. This number is a little short for Seattle at home.

Willing to back Elmer Rodriguez in his MLB debut today. He was great in the WBC and so far in Triple-A this season: 21.1 IP | 20 SO. Splitting this bet with some exposure at -118 on ML and some on -1.5 (+140). I have some concerns about Nathan Eovaldi's hard contact early this season.