ANALYSIS: I hate the feeling of overreacting to the awful performance against Syracuse, but I can't get behind this Louisville team at this number. Is it a little concerning this line isn't -7.5? Yes. My sim number on this game -11.5 so I have to play it. John Rhys Plumlee and Gus Malzahn is a perfect combo in a conference that isn't the SEC. Lay it with UCF at home.

ANALYSIS: I like the Panthers on the moneyline here at -120 as my model has Carolina winning just over 60 percent of simulations (-150) in the Baker Mayfield revenge game. I'm not overly high on the Panthers this season, but I'm happy to back them on their home field (worth two full points ) in this spot. Having a healthy trio of Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson should be enough to keep Mayfield out of trouble as we should see a relatively conservative game plan with plenty of touches for McCaffrey.

ANALYSIS: The market had this one correct when it opened at 59.5 as my simulations have this at 60.4 total points. These two teams are going to throw the ball a lot in this matchup that features two very capable QB with Max Johnson vs. Will Rogers. LSU will be without their best CB Derek Stingley in this matchup and that will only help Will Rogers and company throw the ball down the field. Take the Over again this week with LSU on the field.

ANALYSIS: My simulations make the Packers -0.9 points better on a neutral field. Say what you want about home field advantage returning in 2021, but it's not worth anywhere close to 4.5 points implied by this line. Rodgers hasn't been sharp yet but I think that corrects itself very quickly, especially against the team he grew up wanting to play for. Take the points with Green Bay.

ANALYSIS: I love backing good teams that are visiting the Los Angeles area as the home field advantage simply isn't significant. I make the Bucs -2.8 points better in this "road" matchup against the Rams. The Rams will struggle to run the football in this matchup and that is going to put a little too much pressure on Stafford. I'm also skeptical of the Rams defense after watching the Colts and Bears have success moving the football. Back Tom Brady here.