This is more of a lean, with just 0.15 units invested, but I'm on the Browns +6 as my simulation makes the number +4 for the Broncos. The Browns excel at one thing in particular: generating pressure on the quarterback. Bo Nix has been solid, but this is a tough test against a strong defensive unit. I like the Browns to keep it close, especially coming off the mini bye week from Thursday night to Monday night.

I still don't think the Dolphins are properly rated due to the wild swings in personnel early in the season, with Tua out and Tyreek injured. On the defensive side of the ball, they're playing well, and offensively Tua has a number of great options in Jonnu Smith, De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and, of course, Tyreek Hill. Green Bay is dealing with injuries in key spots on the short week, with Doubs in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander managing a torn PCL. I set the Packers at -1.8 here at home on the short week.

I project the Ravens as -3.9 road favorites in this matchup. While teams can only play the opponents in front of them, my model suggests the Chargers may be slightly overvalued based on the strength of their recent opponents. They struggled defensively against Cincinnati, and this matchup poses an even greater challenge with Baltimore's strong running game. I call Lamar Jackson "Mr. Monday Night" for a reason, and I expect him to deliver again in this crucial game with significant implications for AFC playoff seeding.

This is a classic "pay-to-find-out" spot for me. I have Ohio State as a -17 home favorite over Indiana. Ohio State’s strength on the defensive line will pose significant problems for the Hoosiers in both the run and passing game, especially since Indiana has yet to face a defense of this caliber in such a tough road environment. It's an automatic play at -12.5, where 13 and 14 are key win conditions

I'm playing the Vols here at +11, a line that suggests Nico Iamaleava won’t play for Tennessee. If he does, this line likely moves back to 8 or 8.5, which would be favorable for us. Backup QB Gaston Moore knows this offense better than Nico, having spent his entire career in Josh Heupel’s system. Look for Tennessee to lean on a defense that profiles similarly to Ole Miss, which gave Georgia trouble. Moore isn’t afraid to throw deep, as he drew three defensive PI calls in the second half of the last game. Georgia likely wins, but the Vols cover within the key number of +11

The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage in this must-win game, which is likely the deciding game in the NFC East race, especially considering the Commanders' remaining schedule. Since Week 5, the Eagles have boasted the NFL's best defense in terms of EPA per play. Washington is most vulnerable against the run, which is promising for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley and should set up big opportunities for A.J. Brown in play-action. This line should be at least -3, requiring a margin of 4 or more to cover.

I like Alabama in this spot, with extra time to prepare and the season on the line. LSU's weaknesses were exposed a bit in the second half against Texas A&M. Jalen Milroe has the skill set to use his legs to pick up first downs and keep the Tigers' defense guessing. I have Alabama at -4 here and firmly believe the line should be at least a full -3. Death Valley at night is tough, but I like the Bama side in this one.

0.2u play here on Ravens Team Total Under 30.5 (-120). Although it’s a short week, the Bengals' defense is improving. This is a clear must-win game for Cincinnati, and I believe they'll succeed in moving the ball and controlling the clock. This play is mostly about the number, as there are many paths to a Baltimore win with scores of 24, 27, 28, and 30 points. Reaching 31 points in a divisional game requires a lot to go right.

Tough road environment, but not one unfamiliar to Ohio State. My main concern is clearly with the quarterback situation for Penn State. I don't think Drew Allar is close to 100% if he plays, and if he doesn’t, the offense will shift significantly with Beau Pribula. This change likely wouldn’t be well-suited for playing from behind. Ohio State has a legitimate top-10 defense that should find success limiting big plays in this matchup. The game simply means more to Ohio State than to Penn State, who could lose this game and still make the playoff with wins against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland.

Yes, I'm backing the Jets one last time this season, as they've hit an all-time low in the market. This is a tough situational spot for the Texans, who are dealing with injuries and playing another road game on a short week. My main concern is whether the Texans' offensive line can hold up. I have the Jets winning 59% of simulations, which implies the line should be -144.

I played LSU +2.5 (-115) on FanDuel alt line. Posting here at +1.5 (-105) as it is the best available on the site. (These prices are dead even in the sim). Texas A&M's pass rush hasn't been elite, and their coverage has been terrible, ranking 91st in CFB. Garrett Nussmeier has been great when he has time to throw. I'll take the short road underdog in a hostile environment.

I have the Vikings as 4.2-point road favorites on the short week. While Cooper Kupp obviously helps the Rams, I'm not sure how much he can contribute when the real issue is the Rams' offensive line, which ranks 31st in the league in pass blocking. Home-field advantage is minimal in Los Angeles, and the indoor environment is comfortable for this Vikings offense. Lay the road chalk here.

My model ranks the Ravens as the best team in the NFL, and I like their matchup against Tampa's defense. The Bucs have a few key injury concerns coming into this game, which could impact both their defensive line (in stopping the run) and their downfield passing attack. This number should be a full -3 in the first half for this matchup.

Exciting quarterback matchup here between Jordan Love and CJ Stroud. This is a game where I believe the Texans will really miss Nico Collins. The Packers are now ranked in the top 10 in the league in EPA per play on both sides of the ball and are getting stronger. The Texans, on the other hand, are just 16th in offensive EPA per play, and I project that number to decline with them playing outdoors and without Nico Collins. I have the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites in this matchup.

On paper, this appears to be a letdown spot for LSU after their miracle overtime win, as they now face Arkansas at night in Fayetteville. However, this game sets up well for LSU’s passing attack. Garrett Nussmeier struggles under pressure, but he’s one of the best passers in college football when given time to throw. I believe he will have that time here, as LSU ranks 12th in pass blocking, while Arkansas is just 81st in pressure rate and outside the top 100 in coverage rate. With the time to operate, I like LSU’s chances. The -132 line implies a 56.8% probability, but I have the Tigers winning 62.2%, suggesting the moneyline should be closer to -165.