ANALYSIS: I like SMU on the moneyline in this matchup as my simulations make this -5.5 and the SportsLine model makes this all the way up to -11. The real advantage comes with SMU in possession as the Louisiana-Lafayette defense projects to be outside of the top 200 this season. Grab the Mustangs for a win in Dallas.

ANALYSIS: Back to fade Creighton one more time as they play in a back-to-back sitaution against Arkansas. If you follow the shot quality data from the Texas Tech matchup they should have lost the game outright. Arkansas gets the edge in rebounding on both ends of the floor and comes in with the better defense. This Arkansas team projects to be a top 5 defensive unit this season.

ANALYSIS: Texas Tech offers nice value here on the neutral court. My simulations make Texas Tech -1 favorites in this matchup. These teams are very similar in terms of pace of play, but we give the edge to Texas Tech defensively. This line shouldn't be more than a full possession. Take the points

ANALYSIS: I like the value on Baylor in this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas. Contrasting styles here will make this one interesting as Baylor is great in transition while Virginia really prefers a slower pace of play. Veteran guard play from Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer will be the difference in this matchup. My sims make Baylor -7.5 favorites on the neutral court.

ANALYSIS: Gonzaga definitely takes a step back on both ends of the floor with the loss of Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard. Holmgren provided a unique shot altering precense defensively, while providing critical spacing offensively. Gonzaga misses both players offensively where they struggled with turnovers against Michigan State. Now we have a true road game in Austin against a team that thrives on the defensive end of the floor. Texas added some great talent in the transfer portal with Sir'Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter. I make the Longhorns -3.5 on their home floor.