ANALYSIS: The market had this one correct when it opened at 59.5 as my simulations have this at 60.4 total points. These two teams are going to throw the ball a lot in this matchup that features two very capable QB with Max Johnson vs. Will Rogers. LSU will be without their best CB Derek Stingley in this matchup and that will only help Will Rogers and company throw the ball down the field. Take the Over again this week with LSU on the field.

ANALYSIS: My simulations make the Packers -0.9 points better on a neutral field. Say what you want about home field advantage returning in 2021, but it's not worth anywhere close to 4.5 points implied by this line. Rodgers hasn't been sharp yet but I think that corrects itself very quickly, especially against the team he grew up wanting to play for. Take the points with Green Bay.

ANALYSIS: I love backing good teams that are visiting the Los Angeles area as the home field advantage simply isn't significant. I make the Bucs -2.8 points better in this "road" matchup against the Rams. The Rams will struggle to run the football in this matchup and that is going to put a little too much pressure on Stafford. I'm also skeptical of the Rams defense after watching the Colts and Bears have success moving the football. Back Tom Brady here.

ANALYSIS: The Vikings can't really afford to drop another game but this is a brutal spot for them against a hungry Seattle team. I don't trust this Vikings defense against Wilson, Lockett, Metcalf and Carson. My simulations make the Seahawks -3.7 points better on the road as I'm expecting a big day from DK Metcalf. Lay it.

ANALYSIS: My model suggests this total is about 4.6 points short of where it should be for these two teams. CMU surrendered 30 points per game in a weak MAC league and now they face a hungry Tigers team looking for their first win of the season. LSU can score, obviosuly, but they're also a little vulnerable on defense through the air. CMU will obviously have to throw a lot in this game which ultimately extends the game pretty significantly at the college level. The Over is the top play here.