ANALYSIS: The Cubbies are the play today. Coming off a 13-7 loss last night with ace Justin Steele on the mound, today's game is a must win. Cubs veteran starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks is a steady as it gets with a 3.15 ERA over his last 6 games, grading out 60 cents better than the average starting pitcher. The Cubs offense has a 13% edge versus right handed pitching today. My model has the Cubs winning at 67%of the time or -200.

ANALYSIS: Miami leads the NFL in yards per play at 7.4 and Denver is #5 at 5.9 yards per play. The Dolphins throw the ball 60% of the time while Denver is throwing it 63% of the time. Tua is having a solid start to the season and Russell Wilson is a new QB under Sean Payton. Wilson's completion percentage is up 8 points while throwing 5 TD pass to just 1 int. He is on the pace to 42.5 TD pass after thowing just 15 all of last season. Defensively the Broncos are bottom five in the league and Miami ranked between 10th and 15th. Temperatures in the mid 80's feeling like 95 with humidity.

ANALYSIS: The total is very low for a great reason. Two below average NFL quarterbacks, one top five defense (NY Jets) and one coach (Belichick) that always has a solid defensive game plan. My model has this total at 32.5.

ANALYSIS: New England is 25-28 SU the past 3+ years without Tom Brady. Even without Aaron Rodgers I think the Jets have the better roster. The QB comparison is dead even but the rest of the units I have the Jets with a slight advantage. Jets defense is the biggest advantage in the game. I'll take the home dog with the better defense. Jets+2.5

ANALYSIS: ND QB Sam Hartman was the prized portal transfer and has paid off handsomely so far. Hartman is completing 71%, 11.8 ypp, 13 TD passes and zero int's against a below average SOS. Hartman is a 6th year senior and will not be intimidated by Ohio State. The Buckeyes 5-star QB Kyle McCord has dominated a below average schedule, completing 70%, over 10 yards a pass, six TD passes and 1 int. Sam Hartman will be the difference maker helping us get the total over. My model has this total 60.5.