We'll take the 4-point discount offered on the Celtics amid the late-breaking news of Jayson Tatum's injury scratch. Boston's 43-23 record without Tatum this year suggests he is one of the more expendable NBA stars relative to his team's success and there's a history of such instances in which a team rallies in the absence of a key player in a big game.
The short-handed Timberwolves predictably struggled in a Game 5 blowout loss, and it stands to reason Game 6 on their home floor presents their best chance of winning this first-round series. Despite going without star Anthony Edwards, this Minnesota team plays with much better energy on its home floor and a depth-limited Denver club has lacked resilience and poise on the road. The Nuggets have failed to cover in 8 straight road games and, should they escape with a win Thursday night, we believe it will be by a razor-thin margin over a Minnesota club that we expect to fight until the final buzzer.
The Wolf Pack made the MWC semifinals before being ousted by eventual champion Utah State. Although they played in a tougher conference than the Racers did in the Missouri Valley Conference and Murray State stumbled to losses in 4 of its past 5, we have seen enough of Nevada to observe that this is a difficult spot in which to back the Wolf Pack as a nearly double-digit favorite.
This feels like a prime letdown spot for a Lakers club that is in the second of a six-game road swing. They toppled the short-handed Rockets 100-92 on Monday night, but the return of big man Alperen Sengun should give Houston a needed boost as it aims to close the gap for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
The bubble-straddling Knights snapped a three-game skid and kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a wild late comeback Wednesday against Cincinnati. It wouldn't take much in the way of a respectable performance to cover against high-powered Arizona, and UFC did just that in an 84-77 loss in their regular-season meeting despite a relatively lackluster performance in which it shot just 40% from the field. Look for the Knights to at least put up an ample fight in this rematch.
The Broncos likely secured their first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years on the strength of their upset win over Saint Mary's in the WCC semifinals to advance to their first final in 19 years. This is a legitimate NCAA-worthy Santa Clara club but it faces a tough turnaround against a Gonzaga club that is looking to shake off a somewhat lackluster effort against Oregon State in the semifinals. This is likely Mark Few's most talented team since the 2021 team that reached the NCAA title game, and we expect a sharp performance that leads to a double-figure win and another WCC title.
No running back has gone for more than 37 yards (RJ Harvey) in the playoffs against the New England defense. Although Walker is the most explosive RB they have yet faced and will have a bell-cow workload, we doubt he'll reach this number as we anticipate a competitive game script and a defensive effort that will limit Walker's numbers.
Maye has crushed this number in two of three playoff games and his rushing upside is always a threat for the Patriots offense. But we expect the Seattle defense to keep him in check and also feel that this line is a bit trappy. This particular prop was the first to see major movement and we're sensing it goes the way of the steam on the Jarrett Stidham passing prop 2 weeks ago. That is, under with room to spare.
Hollins has cleared this number in 6 of his last 7 games played. He has only had one playoff appearance because of injuries, but he's proven when healthy to be a reliable and preferred weapon for Drake Maye in the passing game. We see the veteran WR clearing this number with ease.
These neutral-site odds suggest the game would be about -7.5 in Seattle, which no doubt would feel disrespectful to the Patriots. But many bettors are laying this number as if they are reading it out of a box score. The Seahawks are the better team, but the Patriots didn't arrive in the Super Bowl by accident. We believe the outcome lands on an early key number and find value in the points.
The Jayhawks have been rolling of late, with 5 straight wins behind a blowout of then-undefeated Iowa State. But they barely held on Saturday against BYU amid a mysterious from start Darryn Peterson. This is a strong bounce-back spot for a Red Raiders club coming off an upset loss at UCF following 5 straight wins.
Last week, the Bills overcame atrocious officiating (the Cooks' catch overturn/0:00 FG attempt could have been an outcome-altering sequence) to beat a Jags team that was arguably playing better than the Broncos were to end the regular season. Buffalo should be able to get back to the run game and also faces a less formidable rushing attack from Denver than it did against Jacksonville. We've seen similar line movement and will again back a Bills team that many observers are underestimating.
This is a value-heavy ML price on the Texans, whose stifling defense could easily lead them to the AFC title game. The Steelers' rollercoaster season ended with a wild and fortunate finish against the rival Ravens, sending their once-iconic coach to the unemployment line, a fate Mike Tomlin might have faced if the roles were reversed. It's fair to say Pittsburgh played slightly above expectation this season, but its season will end in familiar fashion with a seventh consecutive playoff defeat.
The red-hot Jags have become such a trendy wildcard weekend play that now one major book has officially flipped the spread and we'll bite on Buffalo with this move. Although the Bills haven't shown the dominance that made them the pre-season Super Bowl favorite, they still fell just one win short of their over/win total (12.5) and they're far from the only flawed playoff team. With Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson out of the way, Josh Allen and friends need to take advantage and this is a winnable matchup.
The Packers stumbled down the stretch amid injury issues to QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs and top defender Micah Parsons. With the exception of Parsons, who is out for the season, they will be close to full strength for the first time in about a month. The Bears have made a remarkable turnaround in their first year under Ben Johnson, but we believe the postseason experience of Love and friends will make a difference as Green Bay manages a hard-fought victory.