If there's one club that can slow down Duke, it's a Houston club with the nation's top defense and default home-court advantage. Even so, we've seen the Cougars' occasional offensive lapses nearly cost them their tournament lives against Gonzaga and Purdue. No doubt the Cougars will fight until the final horn, but look for Duke to clip the number on its way to the title game.

It's telling that Auburn earned the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament despite dropping three of its previous four leading into the Bog Dance. The Tigers have proven their mettle by passing tests in each of the past three rounds against dangerous opponents. Their star player, Johni Brrome, says he 100% after getting banged up against Michigan State. Look for Auburn to outlast SEC foe Florida and head to the title game.

The Spartans trailed much of the way against an Ole Miss club that appeared to have the better team having the better night. But coach Tom Izzo's March-proven pedigree won out again as Michigan State scrapped its way to the Elite Eight. The Tigers have the superior talent but have shown lapses at times. They were let off the hook by Michigan on Friday but it's unlikely the Spartans will be put away before the final horn.

This is just too juicy of a price to pass up on a Tom Izzo-coached team to reach his ninth Final Four opposing Auburn's Bruce Pearl, who has reached one in his decorated career. It's also a bet against the rarity of all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four, which ahs only happened once (2008) in NCAA Tournament history.

Player for player, Tennessee might have the more talented team. But Vols coach Rick Barnes has reached the Final Four just once in his 38 seasons as a Division I head coach despite leading numerous ultra-talented clubs. We'll side with a Houston led by Kelvin Sampson, who has been to the Elite Eight twice and a Final Four over the past five seasons, to use its signature stifling defense to move on.

The Crimson Tide are unlikely to duplicate their effort in their Sweet 16 blowout of BYU that included hitting 25-51 from 3-point range. Although the nation's top-scoring team can win a shootout with anyone, the equally explosive Blue Devils should welcome this challenge and pull away on their way to the Final Four.

The Gators struggled in the second round against a UConn team that played stout half-court defense and held its own on the boards. Texas Tech is better on both categories and, despite coming off an OT thriller that could lead to a possible letdown, we're expecting the Red Raiders to fight until the finish and at least cover.

We’re taking the points in a dead-even matchup with both programs in their current form. Alabama is led by Final Four veterans Mark Sears and Grant Nelson. The Crimson Tide had a bit of an uneven regular season, going 4-5 in their last nine games before the NCAA Tournament. They took care of business in the first two rounds but still had some trouble putting away Robert Morris and St. Mary’s. BYU has seen an ultra-efficient offense result in 50% field-goal shooting through the first two games, and the Cougars also showed resilience in beating Wisconsin after squandering a double-digit lead. They also have been sneakily under the oddsmakers’ radars all season, and we think there is value with them again Thursday.

The late-surging Rams made an impressive run to win the Mountain West tournament. But given the dreadful showing of their MWC counterparts in both this and recent seasons, it's surprising to see the AAC champion Tigers, who have won 16 of 17, lined as an underdog on a neutral court.

VCU has been a popular first-round underdog. But, as this spread suggests, the Cougars remain undervalued in the market as they have been all season. They have won 9 of their last 10 and the Rams are in for a wake-up call against a higher level of competition than they are used to facing.

The Big Sky champion Grizzlies have won 14 of their last 15, with the lone setback coming by 3 points. This club has the depth, with 6 players averaging at least 9.2 points and 4 averaging double figures. Montana has the experience and should have the poise to hang with a solid but unspectacular Wisconsin club.

Creighton's season peaked with its win over rival UConn in the Big East Tournament. The Bluejays were routed in the final by St. John's and now face a team with a similar profile in Louisville. The Cardinals won 11 straight before falling to Duke in the ACC final but they have a favorable first-round matchup.

The Tar Heels missed a chance to improve their NCAA Tournament resume with a loss to rival Duke in the regular-season finale. Now, they will need a deep run in the conference tournament to merit consideration. But it will be difficult to create separation from a late-blooming Notre Dame club that lost the lone season meeting 74-73 on a late 4-point play. The Irish's grinding style lends itself to close games, giving more value to the double-digit spread.

The Bulldogs have had a modest season by their lofty standards but they came on strong down the stretch with 10 wins in their last 12 games. The lone loss in that span came at the hands of the Gaels, who swept the regular-season series 2-0. Last year, St. Mary's won the WCC title to halt Gonzaga's four-year reign. Look for the Bulldogs to avenge that loss by starting another streak Tuesday.

Hopkins' absurdly low snap count (12) in the AFC title game speaks to him falling out of favor with the Chiefs coaching staff. Even so, he remains their top jump-ball type threat in the red zone and, with 2 weeks to prepare, it would be difficult to envision a game plan that didn't involve the veteran WR getting some touches.