Josh's Past Picks
The celebrated rookie RB saw a season-high 22 carries for 95 yards in Atlanta's last game against Arizona. The club should rely heavily on him again Sunday, giving him plenty of opportunities to clear this modest number.
The Bills played with a needed sense of urgency last week to keep their playoff hopes alive and they need another strong performance against a brutal stretch that includes dates with the Chiefs and Cowboys. The Eagles have faced potential Super Bowl contenders in three of their past four games and could see a letdown following their much-anticipated revenge win over Kansas City on Monday night.
The Broncos have made an impressive turnaround since their embarrassing 70-20 loss to the Dolphins. But their four-game win streak includes three wins by a total of 5 points. Their high-wire act should come to an end against a battle-tested Browns club that has won five of six.
With Patrick Mahomes in a bounce-back spot against a divisional rival, the Chiefs should give an improved performance on offense. The Raiders should do enough to hold up their send and send this Over the modest total.
This is a tough ATS call against an air-tight spread, but we know the Falcons prefer to run the ball and the Saints haven't been able to throw it downfield with much success. Now their limited receiving corps is thin with the injury absence of Michael Thomas. We should see plenty of time-consuming and empty drives on both sides to send this Under the posted total.
The Texans are fun team and a good story. But they have gotten a bunch of breaks during their three-game win streak by 10 combined points, winning two of them at the horn and fending off Arizona last week. The Jags are undefeated on the road, have the better team and can take control of the AFC South win a win Sunday.
The erratic Colts have shown they can beat truly bad teams, as evidenced in their wins over the Panthers and Patriots. But they have won just once at home this season and the road-wary Bucs, who are just a couple plays away from seeing their 4-6 record reversed, no doubt see this as a winnable game. Moreover, laying points behind Indy with Gardner Minshew at QB is almost always a bad idea.
The total also has been steamed up in this one and it's hard to explain why. These are the two worst scoring teams in the NFL, combining for barely 27 points per game. It would take an offensive explosion by their meager standards or multiple defensive TDs for this to go Over.
This is just out of principle for a spread that opened at -2.5 and has seen nonstop steam on the chalk. The Patriots have won just two games this season, and just once by more than 4 points. The Giants looked much more competent in their win over the Commanders.
The QB matchup is a push at best for the Steelers and could be an edge for the Bengals, who saw Jake Browning look serviceable against Baltimore in place of the injured Joe Burrow. Now, they've had a week to game plan around his strengths. This is a value spot on a Cincinnati club that is just a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings.
Conklin is the Jets' second-leading receiver this season with 381 yards on 35 catches. He became a safety net for benched QB Zach Wilson and should serve the same role for new starter Tim Boyle. Conklin had just two catches for 18 yards last week, but in the prior two weeks combine he hauled in all 13 of his targets for 136 yards. With deep passing plays likely difficult to come by Friday, Conklin should get plenty of opportunities to clip this modest number.
The bruising 49ers backup RB has clipped this number the past two weeks, aided by a 13-yard gain last week. But Mitchell's 47 combined yards the past two weeks cam in mop-up duty in blowouts. In competitive game scripts, he rarely sees the field. Unless the 49ers pull away late or Mitchell cracks another decent run with limited touches, he is likely to revert to his role as a seldom-seen backup to Christian McCaffrey. .
It looks as though this major spread move won't hit the massive key number of +14, but there's still enough value to back a flawed but desperate underdog with a spread that has moved 3 points since the opener. The Cowboys have been great at crushing poor teams at home, besting the Jets, Rams, Patriots and Giants by an average of nearly 28 points. But they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home Thanksgiving games, and the mercurial Commanders have done their best ATS work on the road. Three of their four wins have come away from home, and they also covered the number against Philadelphia and Seattle.
This is a low motivation spot for the RedHawks, who are on their way to the MAC title game regardless of the outcome. The disappointing Cardinals won't reach a bowl game but they have finished strong down the stretch, with wins in three of their past four and the lone defeat coming by just 3 points.
The dynamic rookie dual-threat RB saw 14 touches last week against the Bears and found the end zone for the fourth straight game. Although we wouldn't want to play a price any steeper for anytime TD prop, there is still value in this one as Gibbs should have plenty of opportunities to score again Thursday.