Many football observers are down on FSU’s trajectory following a relatively lackluster performance in its 34-17 win over New Mexico State, and the seat is getting warmer under Mike Norvell. The spread moved 1-1.5 points as a result, but this could be one of the better spots to back the Seminoles. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings might be the best offensive player in this game, but a hand injury sidelined him for much of the preseason. Moreover, he and the Mustangs have been erratic, especially early. Last year, they started 2-2, with losses to Baylor and TCU, before surging down the stretch. We’ll chomp down on our mouthpiece and take the points with a vulnerable but viable home underdog to close out Week 1.

This spread opened as high as WKU -4.5 in some markets, so the current pick’em price illustrates Nevada emerging as a popular Week 1 position. However, we just don’t see the value in the Wolf Pack. Entering their third year under Jeff Choate, the struggling program is just 3-9 at home the past two seasons, often amid lackluster fan support, and has lost both home openers. With 65 new players, Western Kentucky saw some of the most significant roster turnover in the country. Even so, the Hilltoppers have developed a winning culture under Tyson Helton, winning at least 8 games in 6 of his 7 seasons. We’re relying on this track record to provide value on WKU at this discounted price.

We've been of the belief that Anthony Hernandez is slightly overrated, and never more so than when he was absurdly priced at -300 versus Sean Strickland in his last bout. Hernandez relies on his relentless wrestling pace and sinister demeanor to break his opponents. But when his target fires back, he doesn't handle it well. While we agree that a longer fight favors Hernandez, we're not sure it reaches the later rounds. Gregory Rodrigues is an explosive striker and world-class grappler himself. Hernandez won't be hard to find and we think there's major value on the underdog to win with another explosive finish.

Jones has looked much improved in his second UFC stint, going 3-0 with two performance bonuses since rejoining the promotion. Even so, he has thrived against modest competition and we believe this price is way too steep against a efficient striker such as Mederos, who has gone 3-0-1 in the UFC against decent opposition.

Garry has somehow emerged as one of the most reviled fighters on the UFC roster for reasons not worth exploring here. But with seemingly most of the MMA-viewing world rooting for Makhachev, we'll take a half-unit shot on Garry as a major underdog. His length and calculated style could give problems to Makhachev, who has been known to get careless defensively on occasion. With such an upside down UFC slate this year that has seen a bunch of main-event upsets, it would seem fitting that Garry becomes the champion that basically nobody wants to see become one.

Turner was once viewed as a rising prospect before hitting a 1-4 stretch against upper-tier competition. He announced his retirement before returning to notch a win over fading veteran Edson Barboza last December. Fernandes is a prospect who has shown precise striking and lethal leg kicks, which he will likely have to use to combat a 6-inch height disadvantage against the 6-3 Turner. Even so, we don't trust Turner in high-profile opportunities and believe Fernandes will announce himself as a legitimate rising prospect with the biggest win of his UFC career.

The 34-year-old Luque is just 3-5 in his past eight over the last 4 years but all of his losses have come against upper-tier competition. Gore is seen by some as a potential late bloomer but he's just 3-4 in the UFC with numerous losses against low-level opposition. We see the veteran Luque prevailing in this one.

Billy Q had a late-career run to the fringes of the rankings a few years ago but that proved to be his ceiling. He's now 37, 1-3 in his last 4 fights, looked semi-washed in his last appearance and is coming off an 18-month layoff to move up a weight class. Ferreira is 41 and also past his prime but we think he has enough left to dispatch of Quarantillo, who could be facing release with another lopsided defeat.

Gamrot was once viewed as one of the lightweight division's top prospects, but a handful of losses against top competition prevented him from competing for a title. Even so, he still has wins over the likes of former champion Rafael dos Anjos and current title contender Arman Tsarukyan on his resume. SalKilld has looked explosive and dangerous while compiling a 5-0 UFC mark, but his best win is over washed former contender Bemeil Dariush and the rest against journeymen. This is a major step up in competition and, should Gamrot rely on his world-class wrestling skills, we believe he can win with ground control and possibly notch a late submission against Salkilld, who has only been 5 rounds once in his career.