ANALYSIS: This is somewhat reminiscent of the 2018 CFP title game in which Georgia appeared to have the slightly better overall personnel, but Alabama found a way to win after coach Nick Saban turned to then-freshman QB Tua Tagovailoa to engineer a memorable second-half comeback. In this year's SEC title game, Alabama turned around an early 10-0 deficit behind a 31-7 blitz spanning the second and third quarters. Heisman winner Bryce Young accounted for four touchdowns during the spurt, which included a pick-six by the defense from Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. Alabama has the better player at the most important position and a coach who never loses to former assistants. The points could come into play, and taking a Saban-coached team as an underdog is too much of a value to pass up.

ANALYSIS: The Hawkeyes seemed to be forgotten after their 6-0 start dissolved into consecutive losses to Purdue and Wisconsin by 17 points each. However, they finished strong to reach the Big Ten title game and this is still a solid club despites limitations on offense. Unlike Ohio State a week ago, Iowa won't be consistently gashed at the line of scrimmage by the Wolverines, who could be in a letdown spot. These clubs both give up just 17 points per game, bolstering the value of nearly two touchdowns in our pockets before kickoff.

ANALYSIS: This number moves to -7 on the news that Baylor would start freshman Blake Shapen at QB in place of injured dual threat Gerry Bohanon. Although the Bears will miss the running threat and leadership of Bohanon, they beat Texas Tech last week behind a mistake-free performance from Shapen. Defense is where Baylor makes its living and the spread now represents some real value in a battle of the conference's top two defensive units. Take the points.

ANALYSIS: This is officially a take number on the Falcons, who emerged as the early front-runner for the Underdog Nobody Wants in Week 11. Their disastrous outing at Dallas last week aside, their previous two losses came by 10 combined points and a win at New Orleans as a nearly TD underdog is in the mix. Atlanta is banged up and New England has favorable matchups, but its road dominance can't last forever and the TD spot is too big to pass up. The Falcons should stop the run just enough to put some pressure on rookie QB Mac Jones in long down-and-distance situations.

ANALYSIS: There was already some value on the Chiefs in this one amid an overly adjusted number because of another lackluster performance on Monday night against the Giants. Needless to say, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers testing positive for Covid and missing Sunday's games gives Kansas City a prime opportunity for another needed win, and locking in a play at pick'em before the number gets adjusted is a value position.