Bob's Past Picks
Fordham is 1-4 ATS this season. It seems odd for a team like the Rams to be laying this big a number against a Manhattan team that is 4-1 ATS. The Jaspers start four guards and lack size down low. Despite their 2-3 record, Fordham still ranks 81st in defensive efficiency. The Rams are able to create turnovers on defense and hit the offensive boards better than Manhattan.
Oakland is 6-0 ATS to start the season. The Grizzlies had nice covers on the road at Ohio State and Illinois. Xavier is 3-0 at home with a +20.7-point differential. The Musketeers also have a top-20 defense in terms of efficiency. Most of Oakland’s point come from beyond the arc and the Musketeers guard the perimeter well, holding opponents 27.3%. Xavier will push the pace and is the more athletic team.
Northwestern comes off their first loss of the season. The Wildcats play at the seventh slowest pace in the country while only averaging 67 points per game. Northern Illinois is in the top-100 in shooting from beyond, and inside, the arc. The Wildcats have not defended the perimeter well, allowing opponents to shoot 38.4% Northern Illinois plays at a top-15 pace and has the athleticism to stay within the number.
The line has flipped. Siena has also lost their last four games. The Saints could be getting back some key players today as the start of their season has been riddled with injuries. Since the line has flipped, Sienna’s point guard Michael Eley could play today which could be the difference maker in this game. The Saints also do a better job at attacking the offensive glass and have more height down low.
Canisius is playing their third game in three days. They’re still without their best player Tajh Staveskie as well. This line has also flipped in the Falcons favor. Canisius guards the perimeter well, but the Falcons shoot better from the floor anyway, 56.6%. Bowling Green has a top-100 defense in opponents shooting percentage inside the arc.
Old Dominion is 1-3 on the season. This line feels like a trap as well. However, the Dragons have the better defense, ranking in the top-100 in terms of efficiency. Old Dominion lives and dies by the three, but the Dragons guard the perimeter rather well, allowing opponents to shoot 30.5% thus far. Drexel has the more experienced team and better down low presence.
Neutral court game but still in Indiana. The Crimson has been playing very well to start the season. Harvard has been shooting 41.3% from three while the Hoosiers struggle guarding the perimeter. Indiana has also had difficulty shooting the three as well, 23.4% on the season. The Hoosiers like the feed the ball down low but the Crimson have been allowing opponents to shoot 44.1% from the floor.
Queens is 0-3 on the road to start the year. However, the Royals played Drexel rather tough in their last away game. Richmond has been good, 2-0 at home, but not like years past. The Spiders might also be without guard DeLonnie Hunt, who also missed last game with a wrist injury. Queens has the guard play to stick with the Spiders.
Florida Gulf Coast has one home win on the season. That victory came against an NAIA school. The Seahawks have been shooting 35.9% from the perimeter to start the season while Florida Gulf Coast is allowing their opponents to shoot 42.3%. The Seahawks are the better free-throw shooting and overall team.
Brown has been rather competitive despite their record. However, the Bears struggle guarding the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 41.6%. Delaware already shoots 43.6% from beyond the arc. The Blue Hens are the more experienced team for a neutral court game.
Neutral court game. Oklahoma is 18th defensive efficiency and appeared very comfortable in this gym yesterday. The Trojans are in the top-100 in country in three-point percentage, which is a where most of their points come from. Oklahoma is second in the country in perimeter defense and have the guard play to contain the Trojan guards. Oklahoma has a better down low presence on both sides of the ball.
Oklahoma is undefeated thus far. The Hawkeyes have been more battle tested, putting forth a good effort in the loss at Creighton. They have scored 80+ points in every game this season. The Sooners have very good offensive numbers but that also due to their level of competition they’ve played. Iowa plays at a top-20 pace and will want to make this into a track meet. The Hawkeyes have also been very good at creating turnovers and turning them into transition points.
Michigan comes off their first loss of the season. The Tigers like to play fast as well and have the better defensive, ranking 34th in efficiency. Michigan struggles guarding the perimeter and that’s something the Tigers do very well, shooting 40.3% on the season. Memphis has the deeper bench as well.
Purdue escaped with a win last night against the Volunteers. Marquette has been playing much better than the Boilermakers in this tournament. The Golden Eagles will attempt to push the pace, taking Zach Edey out of the game in transition. Edey will get his, but Marquette does a good job at not fouling and if they can make him uncomfortable, the Golden Eagles have the guard to play to defend Purdue’s other scoring options.
New York comes off their second-best offensive performance behind Tommy DeVito, which isn’t saying much. Mac Jones is only 2-8 ATS this season and for a team just as bad as the Giants to be laying points on the road is a little extreme. New York’s defense should be able to keep them within striking distant to at least cover.