Los Angeles returns home from a six-game road trip, losing two of their last three games to the White Sox. Not the best spot for Los Angeles as they take on one of the best teams in the AL. The Rays have the more consistent pitcher on the bump tonight as Nick Martinez owns a 1.75 road ERA. Tampa Bay faces lefty Eric Lauer who’s never beaten the Rays, owning a 7.72 ERA in five career starts against Los Angeles. The Rays are also hitting .286 on the year against lefties, worth the value.
Everyone knows this is a must win game for San Antonio. Videos have been circulating that the Spurs are having the best time practicing, warming up and giving interviews despite being down two in the series. The Garden is going to be the most electric it has been and maybe the last 20+ years and the Knicks are focused. New York’s experience, depth and desperation to bring a title home will be the difference maker along with the fans that are going to make it uncomfortable for this young Spurs squad.
No Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton continues for New York. The Guardians have lost three of their last four games and have scored two runs or fewer in all three of those losses. Cleveland sends out Gavin Williams, allowing two earned runs, or less, in three of his last four starts, while Will Warren has also allowed two earned runs, or less, in three of his last four outings. With the Yankees offensive fire power taking a hit without Judge, both bullpen should have success in the later innings as they are two of the best in the AL.
Everyone in the discord knows how I feel about the Knicks. Josh Hart even said their “goal is to go down here and take two” and now, the value on the ML is wild. Yes, it's a must win game for San Antonio but Jalen Brunson is on a mission. The Spurs are going to come out firing in this one but the experience, depth, and defensive awareness from New York could wear down the Spurs in the second half and especially in the fourth quarter. As long as Karl Anthony-Towns can keep up the defensive intensity on Victor Wembanyama like he did in game one, the rest of the Knicks should be able to contain the Spurs role players.
Zebby Matthews has pitched his best at home, 1.38 ERA, but is off his worst start of the season. Matthews allowed seven runs, on the road, in four innings against the Buccos. Michael Wacha, also off one of his worst starts of the season, and owning a 4.11 road ERA. These are also two of the bottom bullpens in the majors, both with an ERA above 4.70. The game has gone over the total in eight of Minnesota’s last 10 and five of the Royals last seven.
Marlins won the first two games of this series by a combined eight runs. Max Meyer has yet to lose a game this season but is off his worst start of the season, allowing five earned runs in six innings. Meyer does pitch his best at home but on the road, his ERA ballooned to a 4.78. The Marlins are also 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings against Washington. The Marlins are currently in the top-10 in OPS when facing lefties as they face Andrew Alvarez in his first start of the season, typically a bulk reliever. With how the line has moved in Washington’s favor, Nats avoid the sweep.
Pittsburgh continues to be one of the most improved lineups in the league. Their record isn’t earth shattering but its progress for the Buccos. They’re off a sweep of Minnesota where they combined for 25 runs in three games. Their offensive progression should continue with Michael Burrows on the bump, owning a 6.92 home ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Bubba Chandler hasn’t been great either with only one win in 11 starts thus far but the Pirates offense should be able to produce runs, especially against a Houston bullpen that it last in the AL, currently, with 5.91 ERA.
Chicago has won five straight and this is their first road game in seven games. No Munetaka Murakami who’s dealing with a hamstring injury, sidelining him for four-to-six weeks. Joe Ryan dominated the White Sox in his last start, but that was six days ago, difficult to beat the same time in less than a week. Same goes for David Sandlin, who faced the same team five days ago. However, the Twins are struggling right now, losing five straight, hitting .201 during that span and their bullpen has been worked of late. Even though this is only Sandlin’s second start of the season, Chicago has the better lineup even without Murakami and should be able to take advantage of a depleted Twins bullpen.
This game tonight should have a playoff type of atmosphere. Zach Wheeler on the mound owns 1.67 ERA this season. He's allowed five or fewer hits in five of his six starts this season while also owning 1.42 road ERA. Philadelphia has also won all six of Wheeler’s starts thus far. Justin Wrobleski has struggled of late, allowing a combined 14 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings. The Dodgers have scored four, or less, in four of their last nine games. Philadelphia has won their last three while a combined three runs during that span.
Can’t blame someone for talking themselves into Oklahoma City tonight, especially with my Knicks already prepping for the Finals. This is only the 6th time this season that Oklahoma City have been underdogs, going 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. Following a loss, the Spurs are 35-11 SU, 18-8 ATS, and have won six of the last 10 games against Oklahoma City. The Thunder have all the momentum coming into game six despite without two rotational pieces and Jalen Williams is still questionable, but San Antonio has shown that they aren’t scared of them anyway. The Spurs have a strong home court, slightly better overall defensive numbers to push this to a game seven.
Perfect weather in the Burgh this evening for some runs. Yes, Paul Skenes is on the bump for the Buccos but he’s allowed nine earned runs and 15 hits in his last 10.0 innings. Colin Rea goes for Chicago, allowing 12 earned runs in his last three starts. Five of the Pirates last nine games have gone over seven total runs while three of the last four meetings between the teams have had more than seven total runs as well.
Huascar Brazoban has pitched 26 innings owning a 1.73 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. However, New York has lost seven of its last eight games. The Mets face lefty Andrew Abbott who owns a 2.42 road ERA as Cincinnati has won four of his first five road starts. New York has struggled against lefties, and everyone really, hitting .223 on the season against lefties. The Mets have also scored two runs, or less, in six straight games and Cincinnati is simply the better overall team.
The White Sox have won each of their last six games as underdogs against Minnesota. The Twins have also lost nine of their last 10 games as favorites against AL Central opponents. Joe Ryan has not pitched his best on the road this season, owning a 3.95 ERA. Sean Burke has been inconsistent for the most part of the year as Chicago has only one two of his 10 appearances thus far. However, the Twins bullpen is one of the worst in the AL and this line is fishy anyway.
Shohei Ohtani is on the bump tonight, owning a 0.82 ERA and 50 strikeouts this season. However, Ohtani is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his career against San Diego. The Dodgers have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against the Padres following a road win. Randy Vasquez has held his own with a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the season. In his last 11 innings, Vasquez has allowed 10 hits and one run while allowing zero walks. Los Angeles has one of the best lineups in the league but the Padres are 8-1 SU when Vasquez pitches.
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last six meetings against the Reds and have won their last three meetings in Philly. The Reds are, currently, one of the worst offenses in baseball when facing lefties, hitting .209 on the season. Jesus Luzardo is off a six inning shutout in his last start but remains inconsistent at home, owning a 8.31 ERA. Chase Burns has pitched well this season as he’s held his opponents to two runs, or less, in eight of his nine starts thus far. The Phillies have won eight of their last nine games but the value lies with Cincinnati as the Philly bullpen had to grind out a victory last night.