Bob's Past Picks
Yusei Kikuchi has pitched well at home thus far, 1.05 ERA. However, he’s allowed at least three runs in two of his three last starts. Houston is currently 4th in the majors when facing lefties, batting .265 with a .822 OPS. The Angels offense hasn’t been the best to this point at home, hitting .217 as a team, currently last in the majors. Hunter Brown has pitched very well on the road, 2.42 ERA, and has only allowed three runs, or more, in two of his 14 starts this season.
Chris Sale takes on the Mets for the first time this season and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his last 10 starts. Paul Blackburn has given up a combined seven runs in his last two appearances but that was out of the bullpen. This is his first start since 6/2 where he held Los Angeles scoreless for five innings. The Mets are hitting .245 against lefties on the year but only have one player, Francisco Lindor, who has a good track record against Sale.
Robbie Ray has been solid all season, owning a 2.00 home ERA. Slade Cecconi has allowed three runs, or less, in three of his last four starts but hasn’t got much run support from this Cleveland offense, ranking 25th in runs scored. The Giants have lost three of their last four games and only hitting .243 at home on the season. Even if Ray gets into some trouble, he’s back by the best bullpen in the league in terms of ERA, 2.67.
Sandy Alcantara has not had the best start to this season, as he owns a 5.30 home ERA. However, he’s off two back-to-back quality outings allowing only two earned runs in 12 innings. Mick Abel makes his fourth start of the season and off his worst start, allowing three earned runs in four innings against the Cubs. He has a favorable matchup against Miami as they’re only hitting .245 on the year at home. The Marlins have continued to struggle scoring runs as they’ve only scored four runs, or more, in two of their last seven days.
This current Milwaukee lineup has seen success against Erick Fedde in their careers. Three of the last four games he’s started has seen seven runs, or more. Half of Cardinals lineup also have a good track record against Freddy Peralta as well. Peralta has been pitching well at home this season, owning a 1.29 ERA and yet to lose a game. Neither of these teams are hitting over .240 over their last seven days and both bullpens are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA in the NL.
This is a get away day for the Brewers as they’ll travel to St. Louis tomorrow to take on the Cardinals. The first two games of this series have seen eight runs, or less, thus far and Spencer Schwellenbach has had a good season to this point, 3.24 ERA. Milwaukee’s offense is only hitting .235 on the year and has failed to score more than four runs in five straight games. The Braves have only scored more than four runs twice in their first nine games in June. With this early start time, some key bats on both sides might have a day off.
This total seems high with these two starting pitchers on the mound and the juice towards the total indicates it may go over. However, Noah Cameron owns a 1.42 home ERA and has only allowed a combined three runs in five starts this season. Max Fried has been dominant all season, minus the Dodgers start, owning a 1.78 overall ERA. Kansas City has been only hitting .244 against lefties this season and even if Cameron gets into trouble with this Yankees lineup, he's backed by an above average bullpen with a 3.44 ERA, currently, in the AL.
San Diego returns home after a seven-game road trip and are currently tied with the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Nick Pivetta is off to a great start at home this season, 1.69 ERA, while Dustin May has struggled on the road, 5.40 ERA. Despite having one of the best offenses in the league, Los Angeles has scored three runs, or less, in five of their last eight games. The Padres offense is in similar territory, scoring three runs, or less, in three straight while also in seven of their last 10 games. Both starters are backed by two bullpen with an ERA lower than four as well.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed three runs, or more, in eight of his last nine starts. He’s backed on the second-worst bullpen in the AL as well with a 5.75 ERA. Seattle is hitting .256 on the road this season, 3rd in the majors. The Angels have had some high scoring games of late with three of their last five exceeding nine runs. Despite a few offensive outburst, Los Angeles are only hitting .221 over their last seven days but have a favorable matchup against Byce Miller, who doesn’t appear to be 100% healthy, owning 5.68 road ERA.
Max Fried takes the mound for New York tonight, owning a 1.69 home ERA. He’s also allowed two runs, or less, in 11 of his last 12 starts. The Guardians have struggled against lefties this season, hitting .224 on the season. Slade Cecconi makes his fourth start and New York’s lineup hasn’t seen much of him in their careers. Each team has a middle of the pack bullpen, currently, in the AL, below a four ERA and the Yankees haven’t been performing to their standards offensively of late.
Jonathan Cannon has already faced the Tigers once this season and allowed three runs in 3.2 innings, but that was on the road. At home, Cannon owns a 1.17 ERA in three starts. Jack Flathery has been pitching well of late only allowing three runs in his last 12.2 innings with 16 strikeouts. Detroit’s bat have cooled off of late, hitting .200 over their last seven days and the White Sox are only hitting .220 as a team at home on the season. Detroit is also 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games overall.
Three of the first four meetings between these two this season have seen eight runs, or less. Both of these starting pitchers have been in great form in May. In three starts in May, Seth Lugo owns a 2.89 ERA while Casey Mize owns a 3.00 ERA. Detroit’s bats have cooled off a little, hitting .215 over their last seven days, despite winning four straight, and the Royals have scored four runs, or less, in six straight. Both starts are backed by a top six bullpen in the AL as well.
The first two games of the series went under the total. Both of these teams are in the bottom six in the league in runs per game and Toronto is only hitting .235 on the road thus far. Tyle Mahle owns a 0.95 home ERA and has only allowed three runs in a game in one of his 11 starts this season. The Rangers offensive struggles have continued against lefties all year, hitting .212 with a .602 OPS. The last four meetings between these two have gone under in each game.
This is an oddly low total for a Cubs game. The winds are blowing in 11mph, and Colorado has had difficulty offensively throughout the entire season. They’re currently last in runs per game on the road, averaging 2.44 runs. German Marquez has really struggled on the road, 11.12 ERA, and as allowed a combined 10 runs over this last two road starts but only allowed one run to the Phillies in his last start at home in seven innings. Cade Horton has a favorable matchup against this struggling Colorado lineup and has yet to allow over three runs per game in his first three starts.
Hunter Greene makes his first start in over two weeks after a groin injury and faces one of the best hitting teams on the road this season, hitting .273. Before his injury, Greene owned a 1.44 home ERA. The Reds have really struggled against lefties, hitting .206 on the year and just faced two lefties against Pittsburgh and only scored a combined two runs in two games. Matthew Boyd has yet to win a road game thus far but owns a sub-three road ERA. Even if Greene gets into trouble, he’s back by the 3rd bets bullpen in the NL, 3.30 ERA.