Bob's Picks (4 Live)
Bob's Past Picks
Utah is 16-2 SU at home this season. The Rams are playing with a lot of momentum and are 5-2 ATS are road underdogs. VCU won their first two games of the NIT on the road and just defeated a very good South Florida team. The Utes took advantage of an Iowa defense that is lackadaisical in their last game and the Rams defense is much better than Iowa, especially rebounding. It’s very tough to win three games on the road but the Rams are the much better free throw shooting team if it comes down to it.
Seattle took advantage of a shorthanded Purple Aces team. Fairfield has a majority of their team playing in the tournament. The Redhawks have the better defense but still doesn’t create turnovers wile Fairfield protects the ball better than them, averaging seven less turnovers over their last three games. The Stags have the better overall offense, and their defense has stepped up in big spots like in the Metro Atlantic tournament and last night, when they blew a 12-point lead to Chicago State.
Cincinnati barely got past the Dons. Bradley handled the Ramblers in their NIT opener. The Bearcats have the better defense in this matchup, but their offense can go stagnant often, as they’re only shooting 45.9% effectively over their last three games. Bradley has an athletic team, first in the country in blocked shots and the better free throw shooting team. Even though the Bearcats are 15-5 SU at home, Bradley will be more determined to show they can compete.
Dayton is off a 17-point comeback victory. The Wildcats pulled away in the in the second half against Long Beach State. Arizona has shown their vulnerability at times, especially when defending the three. Dayton is 3rd in the country in shooting beyond the arc and their offense in better current form, especially from the free throw line. The Flyers have the athleticism to compete with Arizona.
NC State won five games in five days to win the ACC title. This seems like a possible flat spot for the Wolfpack, who gave everything they had to get to this point. Texas Tech played the tougher competition in their conference on a weekly basis. The Red Raiders were the best free throw shooting team in the Big-12 with an above average defense. Texas Tech struggled with the Cougars end their conference tournament, but the Wolfpack’s defense is not Houston’s.
Nevada is 10-1 in their last 11 games. The Flyers rely heavily on the three and their offense runs though Daron Holmes II. Dayton offense can go stagnant with all the threes they put up and the Wolfpack defend the arc well. Nevada shoots just as well as the Flyers and played a more difficult non-conference schedule, 10-3 SU as compared to Dayton’s 6-5.
Oregon is off their Pac-12 title. The Ducks have won their last four games and are finally healthy at the right time. South Carolina is not as experienced as the Ducks and may struggle rebounding now that N’Faly Dante is healthy. Oregon also has the better overall guards and better coach in this matchup. While the Gamecocks, may have the better defensive numbers on paper, Oregon defense has been peaking at the right time, holding opponents to 64.3 point over their last three game. Dana Altman is also 15-6-1 ATS in the tournament.
Both teams are a combined 6-2 ATS on neutral floors. Illinois has the rebounding edge in this contest, but the Eagles have an above average defense. They’re 9th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage on the defensive side. Morehead State wants a slower paced game but are available to play an up-tempo style. The Fighting Illini played well in the Big-10 tournament and may have exhausted some energy in winning the title. Morehead State is very efficient from beyond the arc and the Fighting Illini struggle defending it.
Akron barely won the MAC title against the Golden Flashes. Creighton is off their Big East tournament loss to the Friars. Akron’s defense is a lot better than some may think, they think the glass on both sides of the ball and are more physical than the Blue Jays as Enrique Freeman can make Ryan Kalkbrenner uncomfortable. Creighton’s offense is elite, but can go stagnant at times, the Zips have the guards to matchup and defend the arc. Akron’s head coach, John Groce, is also 7-1 ATS in the tournament.
Boise State is 0-9 SU in March Madness. The Buffaloes come into this game winning four of its last five games. Colorado relies on the three, 5th in the nation in shooting, but the Broncos are also in the top-25 in defending the arc. Boise State has an edge in rebounding and are able to create turnovers on defense. The Buffaloes have struggled away from home, 4-7 SU.
Wake Forest is 16-1 SU at home. The Demon Deacons are also 11-4-1 ATS as home favorites. Appalachian State won the Sun Belt regular season and has a very scrappy defense that is 6th in the country in the defending inside the arc. This is also a very athletic Appalachian State team that is 2nd in the nation in blocks and the better overall rebounding team. The Demon Deacons got snubbed from the tournament so there could be a possible lack in motivation and while they’re one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, Appalachian State has improved from the stripe to end the season.