Bob's Picks (1 Live)
Bob's Past Picks
Northwestern has lost two of their last three games. Two of those three games had very tough endings, the Iowa and Butler games, losing by a combined three points. This is also the first true road game for the Fighting Illini and Northwestern is 5-0 SU at home thus far. The Fighting Illini have a top 25 defense in terms of efficiency, partially due to level of competition, outside of a loss to Alabama and a solid win over Arkansas. The Wildcats offense isn’t as potent has last season but they’re the better free throw shooting team and have won the last two meetings at home while covering six of the last seven.
It’s tough to beat a team twice in a season. However, for this one UNLV just needs to cover. The Rebels have the 10th best rushing defense in the country while Boise State has the 6th best rush attack in the country. They lost the first match, at home, by five points and held Ashton Jeanty to season-low 3.9 yards per carry but he still had a 128 yards and one score. This game sets up to come down to the wire with a similar game plan to how the Rebels somewhat kept Jeanty in check in the first meeting.
San Francisco is 5-0 SU at home but 3-2 ATS. The Billikens have won four of their last five and three straight with Robbie Avila back in the lineup. The Dons have a top 75 offense in terms of efficiency, partially due to their level of competition, outside of playing Memphis, Clemson and Boise State. Saint Louis has a new coach, Indiana State’s Josh Schertz, along Sycamore players Avila and Isaiah Swope. They’re still figuring out their identity, but this is an experienced team that has shown it’s a much better team, especially defensively, with a healthy Avila.
Cal Poly is 6-1 ATS on the season as an underdog. The Aggies have lost three of their last four games and are shooting less than 47% effectively on the year. This will only be the third home game for UC Davis thus far and face a Mustangs offense in the top 50 in terms of offensive efficiency. UC Davis an experienced team and while their offense isn’t as potent as the Mustangs, they are able to create turnovers, and they defend the perimeter well. This is also just a fishy line for them to be favored over a much better team.
The Nittany Lions have played one game when it was a step up in competition, a loss to Clemson on a neutral floor. However, they’re 5-0 SU at home thus far. The Boilermakers have won the last eight meetings between these two, but Penn State has covered four of the last six. Without Zach Edey downlow, Yanic Konan Niederhauser should find success inside of both sides of the ball. The Nittany Lions have an experienced team with a defensive minded coach while also shooting 61.3% at home. Led by Ace Baldwin, Penn State’s guards need to contain the perimeter and dictate the pace of the game.
Texas has the number one defense in country in terms of guarding inside the arc. However, they’ve played like Chicago State Mississippi Valley State, and Delaware State, all at home. They’ve played three neutral court games, but this is their first true road game. The Wolfpack are 5-0 SU at home, but haven’t played the best competition either, and the line indicates less than a one possession game. Texas has Connecticut on deck and the Wolfpack match up well.
Memphis returns home after a great Maui tournament. The Tigers are 2-0 ATS at home this season and this is only Louisiana Tech’s second road game of the season. Memphis is currently leading the nation in three-point percentage, 46.9%, so you’d have to think regression is coming. The Bulldogs had the guard play to compete with Memphis, and defend the perimeter well, holding opponents to less than 30%. This is a step up in class for Louisiana Tech, but they have the grittier team on the boards.
Wofford is 2-0 at home to start the season, but one of those wins was against a sub-D-I school. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are 1-4 SU on the road, but 4-1 ATS. Gardner-Webb has the more balanced offense and able to guard the perimeter better than the Terriers. Both teams are rather similar in the statistical department with a slight edge to Gardner-Webb at the free throw line. They’ll have to do a better job at protecting the ball to stay within the number.
UCLA is 5-1 ATS at home on the season. They’ve haven’t played a team lower than 181st in terms of team efficiency at home. The Bruins played New Mexico on a neutral floor and lost by eight, they also have the Duck on deck. UCLA ranks first in the country in creating turnovers, but again partially due to their level of competition. The Huskies aren’t the most efficient offensive team, but they’re balanced on both ends with a slight edge on the glass.
The Wildcats have played one neutral court against Duke, needing a big comeback in the second half. In that game, the Wildcats shot 47.6% effectively and struggled defensively in the first half. Clemson is 5-0 SU at home and have experienced team who has played tougher teams thus far. They’re shooting 59.5% effectively at home in what should be a ruckus atmosphere tonight. The Wildcats also have Gonzaga on deck this Saturday.
Louisville will be without Kasean Porter for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. The Cardinals play at a fast pace and take a lot of threes. However, they’re only making them at 28.7%. Ole Miss doesn’t defend the perimeter the best but with at the rate the Cardinals shoot them, there’s a lot of variance. Ole Miss hasn’t played a road game yet, but on neutral floors, they’re shooting 40.3% from beyond the arc and the better free throw shooting team.
High Point has a top 25 offense in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. The Spartans offense is not nearly has good has their opponent’s offense, but they’re 2-0 SU at home and have the much better defense. UNC Greensboro’s defense is holding their opponents to 45% from the floor, despite their 3-4 record. This is also the first true road game for the Panthers and by far the better team, and the game is basically a PK. We’ll take the contrarian route here.
Missouri has taken advantage of lesser teams at home, with a +33 point differential. The Golden Bears are 1-1 ATS on the road and have been competitive, outside of the first half of the Vanderbilt game. The Tigers have great offensive stats at home because they played teams like Mississippi Valley State, Lindenwood, and Ark Pine Bluff. The Golden Bears have an experienced team that get offensive rebounds and the offensive abilities to stay within the number.
The public is all over North Florida. The Cornhuskers are 4-0 SU at home but also 0-4 ATS. North Florida has played very well this season against Power 5 teams with outright wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech and covering against Georgia, all on the road. There’s a lot of variance with this Ospreys team, they shoot a ton of threes, 36.1% on the season. Nebraska is the better free throw shooting and rebounding team, but they’ve struggled covering big numbers at home and the Ospreys seem to play their best on the road.