Bruce's Picks (3 Live)
Bruce's Past Picks
Big scorelines are back in Sacramento as Sutter Health Park is again living up to its reputation as a hitter's park in the first two games of this series. Lots of runs--31, to be exact--have been scored the past two nights with Houston providing most of the fireworks, scoring 24 of those runs. That's nothing new, as the Astros have been scoring runs in bunches in this current 7-1 surge, four times hitting for ten runs or more in this stretch. It might be asking a lot of A's starter Jacob Lopez to keep the Houston bats at bay, and goodness knows the A's bullpen hasn't helped much the past two nights. Play Astros-A's Over
It was a "Butch van Breda Kolff" moment for Rick Carlisle in Game 5, when unlike 'ol Dutch in the '69 Finals, when he kept Wilt Chamberlain on the bench in the late going of Game 7 in favor of Mel Counts, Carlisle opted for a laboring Tyrese Haliburton in the 4th Q at the expense of backup, but better-performing, TJ McConnell. We'll see about the status of Haliburton (calf) tonight, but because of McConnell and others, Carlisle has a deep enough bench to compensate if needed. OKC can wrap up the title, though note it had failed to cover its first eight road games this postseason until a miracle sequence of events at the end of Game 4. Play Pacers
We haven't seen a total this low in the Finals; we assume because of Tyrese Haliburton's status with his strained calf. Yet Haliburton might as well not have been on the court in Game 5 when he didn't make a field goal...but the scoreline reached 229 (120-109 OKC) and the first over in this series since Game 2. Note, games in this series have all been on an over pace before a few of them would inexplicably slow down (read: cold shooting) in the 4th Q. Now, OKC's Jalen Williams is the hottest scorer in this series with his 40 in Game 5, and three straight games scoring 25+. Indiana also has ample firepower aside from Haliburton, as demonstrated throughout the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over
Last Friday, Charlie Morton's assortment of off-speed offerings and constant change-of-pace flustered the free-swinging Angels at Camden Yards, with Morton striking out 10 in just 5 IP in an eventual 2-0 Baltimore win. It's also the same Morton with a 6.02 ERA this season, and not sure how much help he wants to count on from his bullpen after the Rays rallied from an 8-0 deficit to win 12-8 last night, the fifth time in six games that TB's offense has scored seven or more runs. That makes it 20 wins in 27 for the Rays, and Tampa Bay has also won in the last six starts by Drew Rasmussen, who's on the mound again tonight. Play Rays on Run Line
Not good for the Yanks, on the verge of getting swept four by the Halos in the Bronx, which would stretch the current skid to seven games. It could happen after the offense recently had a 33-inning streak without scoring a run, but if the Yankees are to snap out of it, they have the right guy on the mound this afternoon in Carlos Rodon, who fired seven shutout innings at the Angels the last time he faced them on May 27. The Angels, while winning the last three, aren't scoring many runs this week (just ten runs the past four games), and Tyler Anderson has labored in his last three starts, with a sky-high 9.00 ERA. Play Yankees on Run Line
Last night was a reminder to still be a bit wary of the Rangers' offense, which despite some recent signs of a breakout has been inconsistent at best the first three months of the season. Still, one more chance for Texas tonight after Seth Lugo and the Royals bullpen cooled the Rangers bats last night. KC's Kris Bubic might be capable of the same except in his last start he endured his worst outing of the campaign when tagged for five runs and six hits across just 4 1/3 IP of a 6-3 loss to the Yankees. As for Bruce Bochy's Texas side, Patrick Corbin has been consistent if not spectacular all season, reflected in his serviceable 3.66 ERA. Play Rangers on the Money Line.
Well, the Rays have to lose once in a while, so nights like Tuesday and a 5-1 loss to the O's can happen even if winning 19 of the previous 25. For tonight, note Taj Bradley's ERA has been inflated by a couple of poor efforts, yet for the most part he's pitched effectively in the Tampa Bay rotation. He didn't allow a run in his last start vs. the Mets on Friday, though he went only 4 innings. Meanwhile, not sold yet on Birds starter Trevor Rogers, who had a 7.11 ERA in limited work with Miami last season before posting 6 1/3 shutout innings vs. the Bosox on May 24 in his only start yet this campaign. Play Rays on the Money Line.
Miami is showing some signs of life with wins in four of five. They snapped the Phils' five-game win streak last night even if the locals were more preoccupied with the Panthers winning another Stanley Cup. Tonight the Marlins have to deal with Ranger Suarez, who is posting Steve Carlton-like numbers, allowing only 2 runs across 46 2/3 IP in his last seven starts, which equates to an 0.39 ERA (yes...0.39 ERA!!). Meanwhile, it's the first start of the season for Miami's Adam Mazur, who when last seen at the MLB level for the Padres a year ago was struggling with a 7.11 ERA in eight appearances. Play Phillies on the Run Line.
The Royals are playing like it's 2023 all over again, dropping six straight and eight of nine to fall from contention in the AL Central. KC has also lost the last four starts made by Seth Lugo, who deserved a better fate after pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings vs. the Yankees in his last start, but Lugo is also one of those potentially distracting contact situations which could see him put on the block at the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Rangers are moving in the opposite direction with wins in four straight and seven of eight to get back to .500, while Vandy man Jack Leiter has at least been getting to the middle innings in recent starts. Play Rangers on the Money Line.
Totals patterns have been easy to identify in Oilers-Panthers matchups. Seven games have been played since the regular season, and at least seven goals scored in each of those, all Over in the process. That includes Saturday's Game 5, when Florida led 2-0 almost to halfway in the third period before a barrage of five goals put the final scoreline at 5-2 -- seven goals again! The Oilers have had some trouble dealing with the depth on the Florida side, not to mention some recent issues in goal (Pickard or Skinner), but we've seen bursts of Edmonton firepower in this series, too. We won't pick the spot where the scoreline between these two finally falls beneath seven goals. Play Oilers-Panthers Over.
We'll see Phil Pritchard tonight in Sunrise, as the NHL's equivalent of Punxsutawney Phil makes his annual appearance as his partner Stanley Cup is to be presented, before we'll see him again at this time next year. Pritchard, however, got three extra trips last June as the Panthers couldn't put away the Oilers until Game Seven, starting what has turned into a curious Florida pattern of going flat, often at home, in close-out games. In their last nine close-out games, their record is only 4-5. There is thought that Kris Knoblauch goes back to Stuart Skinner in Edmonton's goal for Game 6, which we would endorse. We've seen enough Oilers resistance to think we get a Game 7 on Friday. Play Oilers on Money Line
Are the Rays being undervalued? Now 19-6 across their last 25 games, and having scored seven or more in the current four-game uptick that includes a sweep of the Mets at Citi Field. Tampa Bay seems to be getting scant respect from the oddsmakers based upon this rather short price tonight (better value -1.5 runs) at Steinbrenner Field against the Birds. Especially since Baltimore starter Dean Kremer has been in-and-out all season and off of two less-than-stellar efforts, with a 6.57 ERA in two June starts. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won in eight of the last nine starts made by Zack Littell, who's pitched into the seventh inning in seven of the last eight. Play Rays on the Run Line.