Bruce's Past Picks
Nevada might have picked the right foe to get well against tonight in Westchester while the parts remain greater than the sum for LMU, as Stan Johnson's Lions still try to fit new pieces into the puzzle. Pepperdine transfer F Jevon Porter and San Jose State transfer G Myron Amey Jr, in particular, have been inconsistent, and LMU doesn't have great offensive numbers, including barely 41% from the floor and 31% beyond the arc. The Monday loss to WSU looks the outlier effort for Nevada, which is still shooting nearly 51% from the floor and 43% beyond the arc despite some very cold numbers vs. the Cougs (38.6% FGs; 20% triples). Steve Alford wasn't happy and is demanding a better effort tonight. Play Nevada
We want to look more closely at the numbers for QB Cade Klubnik, whose overall stats (3041 YP, 29 TDP and only 5 picks, impress. Against Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina, however, Klubnik passed for a grand total of 1 TD, with two picks, as Clemson scored 12.7 ppg and lost all three. Note that vs. App State, The Citadel, Wake Forest, and a then-struggling NC State, Klubnik tossed a combined 15 TDP and 0 picks. SMU is far better than the latter group of foes, as Rhett Lashlee's bold decision to sit returning starter Preston Stone and go with more-mobile Kevin Jennings at QB has paid dividends all autumn for the Mustangs, who haven't lost since September 6 vs. BYU. Play SMU (at Charlotte)
Zion Williamson is still sidelined, but the Pels are healthier than they've been all season as five of their top six were actually on the floor for the win over the Suns on Thursday. That result did break a nine-game losing streak and featured 29 points from Brandon Ingram, but it was also at the expense of a downgraded Phoenix minus Kevin Durant among others. High-flying Ok City already took down 'Nawlins once by an easy 106-88 count back on November 13. Indeed, the Thunder won't have any lack of confidence after also sweeping the Pels in the first round of the playoffs last spring. Note all four of those OKC wins landed under as did the first meeting on November 13. Play Thunder-Pelicans Under
Andrew Brunette might be hanging on by his fingernails to his coaching job in Nashville with the Preds now mired in a six-game slump. Worse, they're not scoring goals, reaching only two in each of the first five of those losses before getting blanked by Sam Montembeault and the Canadiens on Thursday. Offseason adds of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marcehssault haven't toggled the offense as many expected; indeed, Nashville ranks on the bottom of the league in goals scored with only 60. Juuse Saros is back in the nets for Nashville tonight but no one has felt the brunt of the goal drought more than him. The Sens are off a win (over Detroit)...something the Preds haven't experienced lately. Play Senators
Is the wrong team favored? Considering how the Bulldogs took care of the Longhorns without much trouble (30-15) at Austin on October 19., maybe not. Moreover, this rematch is being played in Georgia's backyard at Atlanta, where Kirby Smarty's team already dominated Clemson earlier this season. Texas was beneficiary of the easiest possible SEC slate, skipping every serious contender except Georgia (a game UT lost), and the offense hasn't exactly been percolating lately, especially QB Quinn Ewers, who has passed for under 200 ypg across his last three outings. The Bulldogs had it much tougher schedule-wise in the SEC this season, and note Kirby Smart's D held the Horns to just 29 rush yards in the first meeting. Play Georgia (at Atlanta)
Some experience in Iowa's lineup paced by 6-10 Owen Freeman (17.3 ppg), 6-8 Payton Sandfort (16.1 ppg), and 6-6 wing Josh Dix (13 ppg). But Big Ten sources do not believe Iowa is sound defensively or on the boards, the latter reflected when the Utags pounded the Hawkeyes 47-31 off the glass at KC November 22 (the lone Iowa game away from Carver-Hawkeye). Meanwhile, Dusty May looks like he has the Wolverines firing on all cylinders, romping past Virginia Tech and Xavier and winning at Wisconsin in recent games. May's merry band of transfers are coalescing, with an imposing frontline pair of ex-Yale Danny Wolf (12 ppg) and May's ex-FAU Vladislav Goldin (scored 24 in the Wiscy win) wreaking all sorts of havoc. Play Michigan
For a team like ASU, that fed off emotion and adrenaline every week, the dynamics aren't going to be the same in what will feel like a cavernous AT&T Stadium. We suspect Iowa State might have the formula to slow down Cam Skattebo with another rock-ribbed Jon Heacock defense that allowed under 20 ppg, and despite yielding more yardage than usual on the ground this season should still have the scheme and physicality to limit Skattebo's damage. We also like the way Cyclones QB Rocco Becht has had to pull a few games out of the fire this season, including a couple of those on the road (such as high-pressure wins at Iowa and Utah). Play Iowa State (at Arlington, Tx)
The matchup at Yager Stadium seven weeks ago on October 19 deceived a bit as the RedHawks were cruising with a 30-6 into the 4th Q before a couple of late decorative TDs from the Bobcats, including a TD in the last six seconds, made the scoreline look more respectable. Vet Miami QB Brett Gabbert tossed 3 TD passes in the game while top RedHawk RB Keyon Mozee ran for 111 yards as the RedHawks were in control almost the entire way. Ohio has not run effectively either of the past two meetings vs. Miami, and the Bobcats gathered momentum mostly vs. the vast bottom of the MAC down the stretch. Strikingly similar wins for Miami last two years. Play Miami-Ohio (at Detroit)
Even if Steph Curry and Draymond Green return to active duty tonight for the Warriors after sitting out last night vs. the Rockets, we're not expecting huge offensive fireworks at Chase Center. That's because the T-wolves are capable of playing elite defense which they reminded all again on Wednesday when throttling the Clippers 109-80 at the Intuit Dome. That was the second time in a week holding the Clips well beneath 100 points (also on November 29). Minnesota also held the Lakers to a mere 80 points in a romp on Monday night, so in three games the past week, the Wolves are allowing only 84 ppg, and three under results to boot. Play Wolves-Warriors Under
More scoring issues lately for the Ducks, working on an 11-4-1 under run into tonight at Honda Center. Worse, they face Filip Gustavsson (12-4-3, 2.04 GAA, .929 saves), who's been solid in the Minnesota net all season and has already won in Anaheim when he stopped 33 of 35 shots back on November 9. Across Gustavsson's last three starts, he's saved 94 of 98 shots and recorded a shutout of the Sabres in the process. It's also unders in five straight and eight of the last eleven for the Wild. Note, John Gibson has posted solid numbers (4-2-1, 2.57 GAA, .919 saves) in the Ducks' goal since being activated in early November. No Trevor Zegras also a blow for the Anaheim attack. Play Wild-Ducks Under
While West Point 2024 is a great storyline, just who Army beat is open to some debate. Also no question the option slowed as the schedule toughened down the stretch, scoring barely 19 pg across the past four after tallying nearly 44 pg in the previous five. Brave QB Bryson Daily has also carried the ball 65 times the past two (vs. Notre Dame and UTSA) and could be excused for wearing down. The Navy grudge match is also still on deck next week for West Point. Yes, the Greenies laid an egg vs. Memphis, but they'd won eight straight prior, blanked a similar Navy option three weeks ago, and Jon Sumrall is still 28-12 vs. the line since 2022 (Troy & Tulane). Play Tulane
We'll find out soon enough about Ed Cooley's Georgetown, whose 7-1 SU mark might deceive, given that the Hoyas were trounced by Notre Dame 84-63 in their one challenging early-season date. Cooley has to be concerned about 3-point shooting still hovering near 28%. Assuredly, the Mountaineers have been tested more severely, and fared very well last week at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas when beating highly-ranked Gonzaga and Arizona. New HC Darian DeVries via Drake has his portal adds hitting the ground running, including ex-Ok State G Javon Small (19 ppg; scored 31 in the win over the Zags), while Darian's son Tucker is at 15 ppg and scored 26 in the upset of the Wildcats in the Bahamas. Play West Virginia
Big West sources alerted us early to potential upgrades at Cal Poly, where new HC Mike DeGeorge cleared the decks. DeGeorge, who won big at D-II Colorado-Mesa, has loaded the Mustangs roster with D-II transfers, including two from CU-Mesa, Gs Owen Koonce (15.8 ppg) & Isaac Jessup (14.3 ppg), who combined for 51 points in Saturday's rousing 97-90 upset win at Stanford. The Mustangs have covered six of eight early this season. As for UC Davis, it hit one real high note in 75-68 upset at Grand Canyon on November 20, but has slowed down thereafter with heavy losses to Norfolk State and Oregon State, as HC Jim Les seems to be missing the leadership of graduated Elijah Pepper (20.7 ppg LY). Play Cal Poly
Yes the Lions are 11-1 and have twice scored 50+ at Ford Field, but their games vs. NFC North foes are usually not that easy. Consider the 23-20 Thanksgiving escape vs. the Bears, two other non-covers vs. Chicago (including an outright loss) last season, the Pack winning at Detroit last Thanksgiving, and a 2-point nail-biter vs. the Vikings on October 20. The Nov.3 meeting vs. the Pack at Lambeau Field was also a slower-paced affair (24-14 Detroit), consistent with the Lions' NFC North pattern. The Packers can slow the pace if Jordan Love throws with accuracy and keeps the chains and clock moving, and also note Green Bay's 5-2-1 under mark its last six games. Play Packers-Lions Under
Missouri Valley sources have warned to be on the lookout for Drake, which hasn't skipped a beat under new Ben McCollum. He's brought transfers from D-II power NW Missouri State with him, including the three top Bulldogs scorers (G Bennett Stirtz at 17.3 ppg; F Daniel Abreu at 15.1 ppg; G Mitch Mascari at 14.1 ppg). Drake has thus opened the season 7-0 and won the Charleston Tourney two weeks ago, dealing SEC Vanderbilt its only loss in the process. Meanwhile we are skeptical of Valpo and its 4-3 record because we've seen the Beacons outclassed by Liberty and DePaul, and wins all vs. very suspect opposition. Shooting only 43% FGs and 31% triples won't beat good foes, either. Play Drake