Happy to go against the grain, even if taking road favorites for an AFCCG in Denver is tough. Much is being made of the Broncos defense. Here’s what's not said: Denver has allowed 30+ points to three straight QB1s. Beyond Bo Nix's absence, the Broncos are without JK Dobbins; the running game is problematic. Jarrett Stidham has not thrown in three years; he’s coming in cold to an AFCCG. Let’s not act like he’s a tested veteran like Joe Flacco. He can chuck it, but what happens when he gets hit by an underrated Patriots defense? There are concerns about Drake Maye’s ball security; I’m betting that’s been addressed. Elevation and homefield have brought the line down. I will try to grab -3 at -120.

One thing we have seen with Sean Payton over the years is he is not going to water down his game plan with a quarterback injury. We saw it for years in Nw Orleans with Drew Brees, and don’t expect that today with a bid for the Super Bowl on the line. Backup quarterbacks typically have a connection with rookies, from extended reps in practice. Expect Stidham to lean on Pat Bryant enough for him to clear his yardage prop tonight. Take his over.

With no Box Nix, and Jarrett Stidham taking over, the line completely flipped in favor or New England on the road. The public is all over the Patriots. However, there’s now buyback on the Broncos. New England’s defense has been underrated despite one of the easiest schedules in the league, but the Broncos defense is still one of the best in the league. New England is 0-4 SU in the postseason when playing in Denver, where the Broncos are 2-0 SU as underdogs and 3-0 SU as home underdogs in the playoffs.

DraftKings. Marvin Mims’ role has ebbed and flowed throughout the season, but the speedster was instrumental for the Broncos last week, recording eight grabs for 93 yards. Today, I’m expecting Broncos head coach Sean Payton to not only look to get Mims involved, but to also get creative with his play-calling. Mims had 12 rush attempts this season, clearing this line in nine of 15 games. It’s a great matchup against the Patriots, who allowed wide receivers 8.9 yards per carry across 15 attempts in the regular season (per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this up to over 3.5 yards.

Both teams boasts very good defensive units. The difference lies within the matchup along the line of scrimmage. Right not the Patriots have struggled to block the edges and they face Nik Bonnito & company, gunning for Drake Maye -- who has had fumbling issues in the pocket. Look for that element to be the biggest key in why the Broncos still find a way to cover even with Jarrett Stidham at QB.

This number has dropped throughout the course of the week, and for good reason...it was too high, artificially so. We suspect the earlier spread was an overreaction to the Nix absence...at least if Stidham is as competent as Payton believes. Denver’s defense needs to play better than it did vs. the Bills, but one, or preferably two, big-play takeaways would give the Broncos a real chance If Vance Joseph’s platoon succeeds, Stidham will mostly be tasked with playing as error-free as possible. If he can do as much, the Broncos have a puncher’s chance, and might not need any help from the oddsmakers in the process. Not sure how the expected frigid weather impacts proceedings, but such conditions often help an underdog. Play Broncos

I'm wagering a half unit on Hunter Henry to find the endzone Sunday. Henry has 33% of the Patriots' redzone targets, which is highest among all tight ends in the NFL. Tight ends are also a good matchup against the Broncos, as we saw last week with Dalton Kincaid. Tight ends have 26% of the targets against the Broncos' defense. I like Henry's receiving line, but I like this plus money bet for a half unit too.

Can Jarrett Stidham be the next Jeff Hostetler or Nick Foles? I'm not sure about that, but I do like him to go over his passing prop. I know, the line has gotten steamed up. But after more research, I still like it. And I'm laddering Stidham to 225+ Passing for plus money. Sean Payton has made it clear that he trusts "Stiddy". And the Broncos have been very pass-heavy to end the season. They have a +7.6% pass rate over expectation since Week 12. Based on Payton's trust of Stidham, RJ Harvey's inefficiency as a rusher, and the Patriots' strong rush defense, I believe the Broncos remain pass-heavy with "Stiddy". Stidham went over this line in all four of his prior NFL starts.

The theme this week is that crafty Broncos coach Sean Payton will concoct a game plan to get the most out of fill-in QB Jarrett Stidham. What cannot be ignored is that he last threw a game pass two seasons ago and Denver cannot count on its run attack. New England has doled out just 3.4 yards per carry in the past three outings. For the season, the Patriots allowed 18.8 ppg, fourth fewest, as they have gotten healthier down the stretch. Denver's defense is even stingier with an 18.7 ppg yield and ranks first for yards per snap. QB Drake Maye is dealing with fumble-its, forcing the Pats to lean on their D. Temperatures in the teens is another hurdle facing the offenses.

I've gone back and forth on this game all week and finally decided to make a small value bet on the dog. I'm much closer to 3 on this game than 4.5 but I won't sugarcoat it; there's a wide range of outcomes. New England has played two very good defenses this postseason and navigated through each test. Now they face a different test on the road albeit against an overrated Broncos D. What pushed me over the edge here is the Broncos OL becoming a significant upgrade for the Pats D compared to what they faced vs LAC and Houston. Small value bet for me at the current price

The Broncos got a home game for the AFC Championship against the Patriots, but they're without starter Bo Nix. It's looking like they're valuing Nix at 7-points and I don't see that. Jarrett Stidham is worth at most a 4-point differential from Nix but not 7. And when I can get over 4-points in the AFC Championship game against the team that is 0-4 in the playoffs all-time in Denver, I'll take Denver. It's expected to be 23° with 59% chance of precipitation, snow, and winds coming in at 6 mph. Those conditions, coupled with the Denver defense and Drake Maye’s propensity to take a sack and fumble the ball against the pass rush, I have a fair shot of covering with the Broncos.

In keeping up with the theme of Sean Payton having the element of surprise with his weapons that maybe we haven't seen that much of this year, Marvin Mims running the ball. He rushed this year 12 times for 78 yards for a 6.5 average, and he scored his one rushing touchdown on a 16-yard run back in September. He scored a touchdown last week when he was targeted eight times and had eight receptions for 93 yards. He was a big part of the surprise game plan and had his best game of the season. The secret weapon, Marvin Mims, to rush for over 2.5 half yards.

A suddenly dominant Patriots defense faces a backup quarterback, and I find myself backing the 'dog. I think the market rating for the Broncos moved too much when considering the talent level of both QBs and the system in which they play. The Patriots also played at home in both impressive wins and now match up with a much better offensive line in unfavorable conditions. Drake Maye certainly hasn't looked like an MVP in the playoffs and he's now facing the best pressure defense in the NFL. Home playoff 'dogs of 4+ are 11-0 ATS over the last 50 years, and I think they get another cover -- and potentially an outright win -- here.

The Patriots have seen two elite defenses in their run to the AFC title game and survived, and they get another one here. Maye threw interceptions in both games as well as in six of eight games prior to uncompetitive matchups with the Jets and Dolphins to end the season. Now he's up against the defense that generates the most pressure in the league. The Broncos picked Josh Allen off twice last week after the Bills QB threw an interception in just seven of his games this season, and Buffalo has better pass protection for its star QB. Maye could have a good performance here but all it takes is one mistake under pressure to cash this plus odds prop.

It was telling last week that Denver ignored its run game against Buffalo's favorable run defense. You might think it would be nonsense for them to do it again, especially with Jarrett Stidham starting, but I think the ship has sailed on Harvey's opportunities this season. And even if it's not, Harvey will face a really tough run defense in the Pats. In their past three games with Milton Williams back and linebacker Robert Spillane healthy they've let up -- no joke -- 1.8 yards per rush, no touchdowns and zero explosive runs. Zero! Harvey himself hasn't been efficient -- 3.4 yards per rush in four of his past five -- and JK Dobbins could be back.

For starters, this is a tough matchup -- Denver is send in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed (6.1), fifth in yards after catch per reception allowed, 10th in EPA per dropback and they've been this good despite seeing the sixth-most pass attempts per game. They're tested and are very good. Given the potential shortcomings of Denver's offense with Jarrett Stidham under center, as well as their run defense declining over their past four meaningful games (4.5 yards per carry, 9.8% explosive rush rate allowed), this should be a spot where the Patriots run the ball effectively and not force Maye to throw it into the teeth of this secondary.

I believe Sean Payton is going to run a conservative game plan with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. That means the Broncos are going to look for Stidham to carry the ball a few times during the game with his running ability. Pass six yards, run 5 yards, first down. He doesn't have a history of running with Denver, but in his last starts with the Raiders, he ran 14 times for 84 yards. The element of surprise is what I think Payton's going to bring out on Sunday. Stidham running the ball would be thinking outside the box and hitting that territory of the uncharted and the element of surprise that Payton loves. Stidham over 13.5 yards.

Drake Maye was the second-most-sacked quarterback in the NFL this season. He was taken down 57 times, and he's facing the No. 1 sack team in the NFL that put quarterbacks down 68 times this season. The feature sack artist for the Broncos is Nik Bonitto, who has over 14 sacks each of the last two seasons, and he had a sack last week in the playoff game against Buffalo. All he's got to get is his one sack, and we cash the ticket. Also, left tackle Will Campbell has had issues the last couple of weeks. Nik Bonitto over one sack.

DraftKings. Rhamondre Stevenson has cleared this line in five of the last seven games, coinciding with his return from injury. The Broncos were stingy against running backs in the passing game on paper, but they also had abnormally distributed ten regular season games against teams in the bottom 11 of backfield target rates. The Patriots were 11th highest (16.5%), and that number jumps to 18.8% when the QB is pressured (all data per Fantasy Points). The Broncos own the second highest pressure rate, which should bode well for Stevenson. The Patriots running back also owns the second highest target rate amongst the primary Patriots pass catchers against man coverage, which the Broncos run at the fourth highest rate.

This sets up nicely for "the fallen hero" theory. The Broncos know that they will have to put forth an inspired effort to overcome their missing star at QB. It will be a rally-the-troops effort by the team and the fans as this whole environment ought to be nuts. The defense, that has slipped lately, will have to perform as it did earlier in the year and I believe the loss of Nix will be the perfect motivation to do so. Patriots have had success the past 2 games against awful offensive lines. Not the case here. I expect a huge effort from Denver on all sides, making for a very manageable game for Jarrett Stidham. I also like teasing Denver to +10.5.

I'm going to wait a couple of days before deciding whether I'm taking the Patriots or the Broncos side, but I'm pretty sure about the total and how things are going to play out. The under is attractive to me. Sean Payton doesn't want to exploit Jarrett Stidham. He's going to try to slow the game down anyway he can. Use a short passing game and run the ball. Stidham knows the system well. He's the guy Payton felt good enough to get rid of Russell Wilson. He was supposed to be the next starter for the Broncos until Bo Nix emerged. I'm hoping Drake Maye gives up one of his traditional fumbles and takes a few sacks. Under is the play.

Our first 24.5 on the board and will take it -- our model has the Pats with 21 points on Sunday in Denver. It will be cold but otherwise looks decent weather-wise. That league-leading Broncos pass-rush may cause Drake Maye some major problems as he has been sacked 10 times in these playoffs and fumbled six times. The Pats haven't played on the road in a month, so I could see a few pre-snap penalties due to noise. And clearly the Broncos will be playing a slow-it-down game, we'd think, with Jarrett Stidham under center.

Rhamonde Stevenson has 58.9% of the touches so far in the playoffs for the Patriots. He has played like a lead back too. He has 77 or more total scrimmage yards since Week 14 of the season on 65% of the snapes since then. The Broncos' just allowed 174 total yards to Bills' running backs last week. Since I like Stevenson's usage in both the run and pass game, I like approaching his rush + receiving line. I likely ladder him to 100+ rush + receiving yards, as he's hit that in three of the last four games.

RJ Harvey has been highly inefficient as a runner lately, averaging 3.3 yards or fewer in his past three games. He has more value as a receiver. Now J.K. Dobbins has returned to practice (on a limited basis), and there is a chance he'll be activated for the AFC Championship Game. With Milton Williams on the field, the Pats' run defense has been elite. BetMGM is offering this line while other books are not, perhaps waiting for more Dobbins news. I'm willing to bet it now; it has a good chance to cash even if Dobbins remains out. Harvey gained 20 yards on six carries last week vs. Buffalo's porous run defense.

Over the past six games, Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged over 7 yards per carry while breaking 16 tackles. This is a game in which New England will stay committed to the run, trying to minimize Denver's ferocious pass rush. James Cook ran for 117 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry at Denver last week. Look for Stevenson to rush for 50-plus yards.

A lot of juice here and I'm good with playing the 12.5 line at anything near even money. Rhamondre Stevenson appears to be the lead back in this offense as TreVeyon has taken a bit of a back seat (look no further than the efficience numbers to see why). Rhamondre had 16 carries last week and probably would have had more if not for a 2nd quarter eye injury that had him miss some time. A likely neutral and/or positive game script should be in play against Denver and I expect time of possession to favor the Patriots, which will lead to more plays for the Patriots. Look for Rhamondre to get to at least 13-14 carries (this line at FD).

B365/MGM (-120). Sean Payton is no stranger to having to gameplan for back-up quarterbacks (including two Jarrett Stidham games in 2023). Denver’s running game is lackluster, and this is a brutal matchup. The Patriots allowed a league best 3.6 yards per carry in weeks that star Milton Williams played the full game. Bo Nix was had the second lowest pressure rate amongst starting quarterbacks this season - I expect the Broncos offensive line to protect Stidham. Payton’s offense is built on quick reads, and despite not having Nix, I believe the Broncos will throw their typical amount. Nix averaged 22.8 completions per game in the regular season, and I don’t believe Stidham warrants a near 20% drop off. I have him closer to 20 completions.

With WR Stefon Diggs expected to be blanketed by CB Patrick Surtain, Drake Maye’s most reliable option could be TE Hunter Henry. The Broncos’ pass defense is tough overall, but they’ve had trouble containing tight ends, especially in the middle of the field, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (59.7) to the position. It’s common for young quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends in loud, hostile stadiums, and Henry fits that “safety valve” role perfectly. He’s been a steady presence for New England, ranking seventh among tight ends in target share (18.05%) and surpassing this yardage mark in 11 of 18 games this season. Expect Maye to look Henry’s way early and often.

I just can't get to 5.5 in this game even with the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. I'm not in the "Patriots are frauds" camp because they faced an easier schedule but the reality is they played two playoff games at home against two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Broncos would have been favored with Bo Nix, and while he's had a really good season, Denver's defense won't be out on Sunday. I think that unit is good enough to cause a couple of turnovers and keep the Broncos in the game. I expect Sean Payton to protect Stidham and try to get this game into the fourth quarter with a shot to win. I'll take the points.

The Patriots defense has run roughshod over a pair of offenses with major injury concerns the last two weeks, and they'll get another with Jarrett Stidham at QB. Playcaller Zak Kuhr is in his bag, completely outmaneuvering the Chargers and Texans, and Stidham faces an uphill battle to score points. Drake Maye's offense has struggled with turnovers against two top-tier defenses and gets another here, and the margin between the Broncos and second place in sacks was more than the gap between No. 2 and 9. Maybe another defensive score ruins this Under like it did last week in Texans-Pats, but I have to back it above the key number of 41.

When I make my Same Game Parlays closer to Sunday, I’ll probably buy this number up a few points just to be safe. That’s always a betting philosophy I advise with SGPs. Regardless, with two excellent defenses and Denver starting a backup quarterback, I just can’t see this one turning into a Broncos-Bills type of shootout. I would’ve probably leaned Denver at home with a healthy Bo Nix, but it’s hard to imagine Jarrett Stidham pulling a Jeff Hostetler (see the 1990 Giants) and leading his team to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams have skated by with relatively easy schedules this season. This time, the Nix injury benefits New England significantly. Patriots 21, Broncos 13.