This is basically a pick ‘em, which is appropriate as the game looks to be a toss-up. It’s telling that the Broncos are not getting a full three points at home despite their strong defense and the advantage provided by the elevation. Josh Allen is the singular difference-maker in this game, and Buffalo enters as the more experienced team with a 31-7 playoff win last year (albiet at home). Bo Nix was held to 144 yards passing in that game as Curtis Samuel, activated by the Bills for Saturday, broke out. In their last two games defending starting QBs, the Broncos allowed an average of 30.0 points. Buffalo’s kicking game is a concern, which is why I want the 1.5 points.

Josh Allen is 13-0 to the under on the road when the total is between 44 and 47 points in his career. Denver will lean more on the passing game and the one strength for this Bills defense is defending the pass. Yes, they just went on the road in Jacksonville, where Allen got banged up, and now have to travel cross country for this one. The Broncos defense should be able to make Allen uncomfortable but he can make big plays running the ball, as we all know. Denver’s defense should be able to limit James Cook, as they’re leading the league in rushing defense at home, holding their opponents to less than 89 yards.

Everyone knows it's on Josh Allen to be the superhero and will the Bills to victory. Against the Jaguars elite run defense, Allen scored twice and had 11 rush attempts, including a tush-push that went for 10 yards where Allen refused to go down. With a limited WR group that struggles to create separation, I expect Allen to use his legs in the red zone. Considering he's scored 16 TDs this season, I feel obligated to bet this prop at -115.

The Broncos were 10-7 to the under this season, and have played to the under in 8 of their last 10. Denver’s defense finished the year ranked #1 in sacks, yards per play, and red zone efficiency. Buffalo has struggled against the run, but their secondary has been playing at a high level. Buffalo stifled Bo Nix last season in his playoff debut, holding him to 13/22 for 144 passing yards in a 31-7 Bills win. Both of these teams are run-first offenses that use up the play clock. The Broncos will want to keep Josh Allen off the field, and the Bills will try to stop the run and bait Nix into a mistake. Hard to not like a playoff Under at Mile High.

RJ Harvey can be a bell cow back but will he be one today? I'm not so sure that Harvey gets all the touches running the football knowing how dynamic he can be as a receiver as well. Sean Payton loves to get creative when he has extra time to prepare and all of us should fully expect a few wrinkles in the Broncos plan of attack today

Josh Allen's magic can mesmerize, though he might have to reach deep into his bag of tricks to foil the Broncos on Saturday. Denver's heavy QB pressure (NFL-best 68 sacks) and tight man-coverage in the secondary might be the perfect anti-Bills formula. Meanwhile the Buffalo defense has been a liability for much of the season. Bo Nix isn't quite Allen, but he's good enough to damage the Bills, and Denver is quite comfy in close games because of Nix delivering consistently in the clutch and the big plays of the defense. With Sean McDermott recently changing PKs, an edge not to be overlooked might be Broncos PK Will Lutz. Play Broncos

Josh Allen has 16 total rushing touchdowns (anytime touchdowns) this season and postseason. With a very depleted, weak receiving core, Allen will need to play Superman and be the hero again if the Bills want to move on to the AFC Conference Championship. This is mostly about the price. Any player who has scored 16 times this season should have way more juice. I love the price and the liklihood the Allen finds the endzone again on Saturday.

Josh Allen is certainly da man, but is he Superman? OK, the Bills’ colors (red, blue) match the Man of Steel’s outfit. We just don’t see Allen carrying Buffalo on his shoulders while dealing with foot, knee and finger injuries. Especially with an injury-wracked WR corps. Especially against a monster defense with 68 sacks. Especially versus a D that shuts down rushing attacks, having ranked second for yards allowed. QB Bo Nix may be unnerving at times, but his threat to run is real. Buffalo’s rush defense is a polar opposite with its No. 31 rating, and coach Sean Payton knows Jacksonville averaged 6.7 yards per carry last week — and might have ousted the Bills had it too often eschewed the ground game.

Last week, the Bills overcame atrocious officiating (the Cooks' catch overturn/0:00 FG attempt could have been an outcome-altering sequence) to beat a Jags team that was arguably playing better than the Broncos were to end the regular season. Buffalo should be able to get back to the run game and also faces a less formidable rushing attack from Denver than it did against Jacksonville. We've seen similar line movement and will again back a Bills team that many observers are underestimating.

James Cook has been the engine of the Bills offense and is coming off a very impressive campaign where he averaged a robust 94 rushing yards per game. Cook struggled last week versus a stout Jaguars defense that held him to just 3.1 YPC on 15 totes. He gets another very tough draw against a Denver run defense that ranks 8th in EPA per rush, as well as 2nd in Success Rate. The Broncos surrendered the 2nd fewest yards on the ground to opposing RBs this year, in addition to allowing only one RB to eclipse 70 yards which happened all the way back in Week 2 to Jonathan Taylor.

Already over this line in four of his past five, Harvey is the assumed catalyst of the Broncos run game. He'll go up against a Bills run defense that's allowed 6.0 yards per rush to RBs in its past four EXCLUDING Week 18. TreVeyon Henderson and both Jaguars RBs did well against them, and while I'm not sure Harvey will run wild, I definitely think he'll get his opportunities in what should be a low-scoring game. Giving up too soon on the run is the mistake the Jaguars made last week, and the lesson Sean Payton will learn not only from the Bills' win a week ago but in his loss at Buffalo in the playoffs last year when he called just 11 RB runs.

The Broncos head into this game well rested, but they didn't look great offensively in the regular-season finale. They'll be up against a Bills defense that could get Ed Oliver back here after stepping up in a major way against the Jaguars. This seems to me to be a game that could start slow, as many Broncos games have done with just one of their last eight getting to 10 first-quarter points when you throw out Week 18. The Bills' wild-card game ended with 51 points but just three in the first quarter, and they lost two WRs to injury and saw Dalton Kincaid get banged up as well. I don't love a full-game Under with Josh Allen at QB, but I like targeting this.

The Gameday weather in Denver is expected to be 45° with 9 mph winds and no chance of rain. I think it's going to be a high-scoring game, and I think both Bo Nix and Josh Allen rock the stat sheet, getting over on their totals of 1.5 touchdown passes and over 250 passing yards each. This is about the Bills' defense being exposed, and the Broncos' defense is ready on paper, but they have their lapses. Allen is going to find the weakness. The Broncos have gone over their total in four of the last six games, the same number as the Bills. I'm on the over here and over yardeage on the player props as well.

Crunching the numbers, I actually have Denver as a 3-pt favorite and that falls primarily on its defensive stats, which are exceptional. Offense is a problem. Eleven of the 14 wins were by one score. Broncos trailed in 15 of 17 games. Nix was an average QB - again, benefitted by an excellent defense. Bills strength on defense is vs the pass which will make the game difficult for Nix, and the Broncos rushing attack is just average too. Denver struggled vs mobile QB's this season; T. Lawrence, J. Dart, M. Mariota, and D. Jones. Public perception is Buffalo has no healthy receivers but really, it has the better options on offense. Last time Denver faced a team this good at home, it lost (Jaguars).

Broncos backup running back Jaleel McLaughlin has supplied a spark lately, rushing for 118 yards on 18 carries (6.56 ypc) in the past three games. Buffalo's defense is much better against the pass, so I'm expecting a ground-heavy approach from Sean Payton. While RJ Harvey will get the bulk of the carries, McLaughlin might only need three attempts to clear this prop total.

Buffalo's defense is starting to look alive here in the postseason, especially on the defensive interior. They are facing a QB who has a very similar skill set as Josh Allen in Bo Nix. Because Nix has a tendency to start game slow, putting him in a position to have to pass his way back into a game, I don't see this rematch from last postseason being any different than what the outcome was last year.

While all the TV pundits are making excuses for why the Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, no one seems to be talking about how the Bills are on the road with terrible losses at Atlanta and Miami. The Broncos are top-5 in most defensive categories, including being No. 1 in sacks. They've had several come-from-behind victories this year because of that defensive team that comes together in the critical moments. The comebacks aren’t a negative but rather a positive of what they do well. Josh Allen just had his first playoff victory on the road, and he doesn't have any real competition now. I'm looking for a high-scoring game with the Broncos getting 4th quarter magic to win the ball game.

All eyes are on the matchup between Josh Allen and a stingy Broncos defense, but I'd rather look at the other QB in this prop. The Bills have allowed seven completions of 34+ all year and just two in the last two months, including a 34-yarder to Parker Washington last week. The Broncos have had a decent amount of passes over 34 yards but they've also run a lot of side-to-side plays rather than attack downfield. The Bills' time of possession edge throughout the year has resulted in the fewest passes against them, and they're fifth in net yards per pass attempt. With the defense stepping up last week, I'll trust them to cash this play.

This is the one game over the weekend where I truly don’t have a strong lean. But Buffalo is SO banged up and now is facing one of the league’s best defenses on the road. The Bills whacked the Broncos last season but Denver is improved in 2025-26 and Buffalo is worse. While I think this one will be extremely close, I lean the home team in another NFL playoff thriller. Broncos 24, Bills 21.

Second game in six days for the Bills and second in 23 days for the Broncos. Buffalo got pretty battered in that Jacksonville loss with safety Jordan Poyer and WR Gabe Davis already ruled out for this one. Denver is only the second No. 1 seed ever to be an underdog in the Divisional Round. The first one was victorious (Eagles). Buffalo's No. 1 rush offense was largely held in check by the Jaguars. The Broncos ranked No. 2 vs. the run.

FanDuel. Khalil Shakir cleared this line in 9/16 games in the regular season, and is very clearly Josh Allen’s most trusted target in high-pressure situations. Allen, who is banged up, will likely be thrust into passing situations (Broncos run defense ranks 2nd in DVOA), and Shakir should be in position to capitalize. Running most his routes out of the slot, he’ll avoid Patrick Surtain on the outside. The Broncos allow the fifth-highest target rate to slot pass catchers (36%, per Fantasy Points). Denver allowed the third most catches to pass catchers in the slot and out wide for nine air yards or less (11.2 per game). Shakir’s aDOT is 3.6 yards, with 82% of his targets coming in at less than 10 air yards.

I'm not entirely sure what we're doing with this number, because everyone else just saw Allen score two rushing touchdowns against the Jaguars (the best rush defense in football) despite battling 50 different injuries he picked up during the game. The Bills only path to winning the Super Bowl is with Josh Allen turning into Superman the rest of the way. He already did it against the Jags and dragged the Bills into the Divisional Round. I would fully expect we see more of it against the Broncos and he absolutely will not hesitate to put his body on the line and plunge across the goal line. Basically even money early in the week is an autobet on Allen to score.