This is a monster over to take on a Tuesday, but we don't care. There was some buy back on it that got it down to a half point or so and we'll take advantage. Weather might be a concern (low temps, medium winds) but I'm not worried about that against a Bears secondary that can be gotten. Just look at Jordan Love's numbers in the Packers loss to Chicago last week. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is the king of the second half surge, so even if the Rams pile up points early, they won't be able to take their foot off the gas and Williams will move the ball against a suspect secondary in the second half and maybe the first as well.

Stevenson has seen a ton of snaps over the last few weeks and was the focal point for the Patriots offense against the Chargers. He's not normally considered a receiving back, per se, but his targets are way up over the last month plus. He has 20 targets in his last six games, all of which have seen him go north of 21 receiving yards. When Stevenson is out on the field, defenses are typically geared up to stop the run and he's able to slip out, catch a quick pass from Drake Maye and pick up good yardage.

Purdy cleared this number in his last three games and in four of five. He's scoring with his legs and he's absolutely been looking to use them to pick up big third downs. He only ran twice against Seattle in the last game and still cleared this number. We're also pretty unlikely (based on the spread) to get knees here.I would almost guarantee this closes around 20.5 or thereabouts, so let's jump on this number early and watch Brock run wild against the Seahawks.

I'm not entirely sure what we're doing with this number, because everyone else just saw Allen score two rushing touchdowns against the Jaguars (the best rush defense in football) despite battling 50 different injuries he picked up during the game. The Bills only path to winning the Super Bowl is with Josh Allen turning into Superman the rest of the way. He already did it against the Jags and dragged the Bills into the Divisional Round. I would fully expect we see more of it against the Broncos and he absolutely will not hesitate to put his body on the line and plunge across the goal line. Basically even money early in the week is an autobet on Allen to score.

Trevor Lawrence just finished the best season of his career, which happens to coincide with him having the best rushing season of his career as well (359 yards, nine rushing scores, the latter nearly double his previous career high). Lawrence had the same number of rushing attempts inside the five (nine) as Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley. He trailed only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in red-zone rushing attempts. He's a smart, physical and elusive runner near the goal line. And this price is really good in a home playoff game as a slight dog to the Bills, who give up plenty of yards on the ground. We'll sprinkle on two rushing scores as well.

Carolina benefited from ugly weather and some fortunate turnovers by the Rams in their first meeting this year. I don't think the Panthers will be as fortunate as they were to slow down the Rams offense this time around. Bryce Young's made some big throws under pressure this season and if things are tight, he might be able to sneak his way into the next round. The Rams will be substantially sharper to start this game than they were against Carolina the first time around, the offense should pile up the points and if the Panthers are forced to throw a ton, this one could get out of hand. With this down to 10 because of more bad weather I'm jumping on it now.

This line at DraftKings is nearly a full point lower than the rest of the market and I want to jump on it now. The Cowboys are the quintessential "great offense with a bad defense who missed the playoffs and get to put up a meaningless blowout victory against a division opponent in Week 18" team. We see a couple every year. Brian Schottenheimer can close out the year with two strong division wins and Jerry Jones will be "happy" or close to it, with zero talk about his job security. Dak could have a monster game here against a hapless Giants defense.

I'm not saying the Panthers should be favored or anything in this game, but Carolina just beat the Buccaneers and this is going to be a tight game on Saturday afternoon to kick off Week 18. I agree completely with the market move to make the Bucs less than three-point favorites, so I'm jumping on the last remaining full field goal before it disappears as well. Personally I think the Panthers win outright, but definitely believe they stay within a field goal.

Juicy number so if you want to bump it up some, feel free to do so -- I think anything up to 10 receptions (+195) is perfectly fine, especially if you're building some kind of SGP. The only issue here is the spread: Puka can easily get to 12+ reception's if this is a shootout, but if the Rams blow out the Falcons, as the number suggests, then it might be difficult to get there because the game script would feature a ton of running in the second half. But I also believe Sean McVay wants to secure Stafford's MVP and that means feeding Puka to pile up passing yards and put Drake Maye just a bit outside for the award.

Robinson is a receiving monster and with Kirk Cousins under center he's piled up the yardage, specifically in the last two weeks, catching 15 passes for 174 yards. The Falcons won both those games and I'm guessing they don't view that as a coincidence. Robinson can blast past this in the first half if the Rams come out hot and Cousins is forced to throw a ton.

Without Davante Adams to be the red-zone beast for Matthew Stafford, the Rams QB has had to rely on his tight ends near the goal line. I expect plenty more of that on Monday night and think Ferguson, who saw an uptick in usage last week and has second-round pick draft equity, might be primed for a decent role in this matchup against the Falcons.

The Rams are boxed out of the NFC West race, meaning they can only end up as a wild-card team. That's pretty shocking considering where they were a month ago, but such is life in the NFL. However, the Rams can still determine whether they head to face the NFC South champion or whether they face the Eagles/Bears and even if Sean McVay won't admit it, one is a better option. Also: Matthew Stafford's in a homecoming game (he played at UGA) with an MVP title on the line, presuming he doesn't play next week. Big time game coming from him and Puka.

The Bills lost to the Patriots earlier this season but that game featured a lot of Buffalo turnovers. New England has only beaten one good team this year, really, and that was Buffalo. If we get a clean game from Josh Allen the Bills will be in this one. If we get a superhuman Josh Allen game, which happens a lot in December, I'm pretty confident Buffalo walks out of Foxborough with a victory.

Baker is all kinds of banged up which would generally lead you to believe he *won't* run in this game. But it's actually the opposite -- see: Justin Herbert on Monday -- as quarterbacks who are hurt are more willing to take off and run to avoid massive shots in the pocket when they can dictate when/how they get contacted out in the open field. This is also a late-season, prime-time game at home (it's not quite must-win, but it's close for the stumbling Bucs) and I'd expect Baker to lay it on the line. Mayfield has cleared this number fairly easily in each of his last four games and I don't see him staying stationary in this matchup.

Godwin will be the primary underneath guy for the Bucs in this one. Baker might need to get the ball out quick to avoid contact from a dangerous Falcons defensive front and with Mike Evans (possibly back!) and Emeka Egbuka drawing coverage, Godwin should be open underneath. If there's any kind of need to pass whatsoever, Godwin should get here and it looks like they might be slowly ramping up his snaps, so we're hoping to get something in the range of 72 to 75 percent of the offensive plays for the crafty veteran. He had three in his first game back and five last week, but should have had one more that he dropped in the end zone against New Orleans.