The Bills have been on the right side of this rivalry in the regular season lately but very much on the wrong side in the playoffs. However, this is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game of his career and he's headed to Buffalo ... not exactly the easiest place to play. The Bills are rolling right now and I expect them to come out on top. Paying up to take the moneyline (vs the juiced spread) is the move in a game that could easily come down to a walkoff field goal.

It's looking more and more ...... likely that we don't get Mark Andrews in the Divisional Round, which means the backup tight end for Baltimore is going to be the starter again. Likely has been awesome for the Ravens in Andrews' absence and this price is too good to pass up.

The Browns have so much more playoff experience than the Texans and Joe Flacco is playing for cash in this spot with a $250k bonus on the line if Cleveland advances. Houston's pass funnel defense sets up for Amari Cooper and David Njoku to produce in the air via Flacco and C.J. Stroud is a rookie starting his first playoff game.

The Cowboys road "struggles" may be more related to playing good teams and getting them at a bad time (at the Niners in prime time, at Philly, at Buffalo, at Miami). The only really bad loss on the road was at the Cardinals, which was a wheelhouse spot to sleepwalk for a Dallas team that started out hot. The Commanders are likely (?) starting Sam Howell again and behind a bad offensive line he could be in big trouble against this Dallas pass rush. Washington's defense hasn't held anyone to less than 27 points since Week 9, when they beat the Patriots 20-17. That was Nov. 5, their last win. Ron Rivera's last stand is unlikely to be inspiring.

It's pretty shocking that Antonio Pierce hasn't been given the Raiders job already, but it makes sense with what we know about Jim Harbaugh's desire to return to the NFL. Mark Davis loves a splash hire and Harbs would qualify, especially if he won the natty for Michigan and then jumped back to the NFL. Regardless, we get a team in Las Vegas looking to really make a final push for the interim coach they want hired full time against a team in Denver that might be phoning it in a bit with Jarrett Stidham having taken over for Russell Wilson and the Broncos fully eliminated from postseason contention.

Cardinals coming off their Super Bowl, beating the Eagles outright to really ruin Gannon's old team's season. Seahawks fighting for their playoff lives -- they're in with a win and the Bears beating the Packers. I think Chicago keeps it close with Green Bay in that game because the Packers defense isn't likely to close anyone out. Which means the Seahawks are very likely to keep their foot on the gas offensively and defensively throughout the entirety of this game. Even if Seattle is scoreboard watching -- and they won't likely be getting any updates until later in the game if at all -- Pete Carroll won't let his team stop trying to compete. Seahawks motivation factor here is just too high to ignore.

This is a battle of two division rivals desperate to try and find their way into the playoffs while also trying to simply field healthy rosters. The Packers have been obliterated by injuries the last few weeks but might be getting a little bit healthier for Jordan Love this week. Meanwhile the Vikings got hit with some major injuries, losing T.J. Hockensen for the season and likely Jordan Addison for this week. We should see plenty of blitzing from Brian Flores but Aaron Jones full strength in the passing game should be enough to ease up the pressure and allow Jordan Love to get some shots open downfield as well.

The Washington offense has been night and day the last two weeks when Jacoby Brissett replaces Sam Howell. You can draw your own conclusions about a Wolfpacker vs. a Tar Heel, but there's a clear difference in the experience level of the two quarterbacks. Howell is the future in Ron Rivera's eyes, but Rivera isn't even the future, so whatever he says about the quarterback situation is largely irrelevant. Howell needs "a break" and that's fair, he's been beat down badly. Brissett has engineered five straight TD drives for Washington and nearly stormed back to beat a good Jets defense. The 49ers will be angry but Washington should be able to stay within two touchdowns.

This line is pretty shocking: the Eagles are scuffling lately. Coming out of the bye, Philly stole games from the Chiefs and Bills, then lost three straight games and then let the Giants hang around on Christmas Day last week. Kyler Murray and this offense -- particularly Trey McBride -- should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia. The Eagles offense is still a little wobbly, particularly when it comes to attacking via the air. I expected big things out of A.J. Brown on Christmas Day but he and Jalen Hurts really haven't been on the same page very much lately. This spread is just too high for a Cardinals team still fighting hard.

Road chalk was largely kind to us last week (although the Packers not covering was annoying and the Jets not covering was flat out ridiculous) so let's dabble a little bit this week. Tyrod Taylor in the starting lineup is a little unnerving -- we would vastly prefer to fade Tommy DeVito here -- but the Rams are just cooking with gas right now. They could easily be on a six-game winning streak right now if not for a tough overtime loss on the road to the Ravens. Sean McVay is pulling all the right levers and Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, with Cooper Kupp looking 100 percent and Puka Nakua continuing to make a late-season push for OROY honors.

I will not be taking my chances with Bill Belichick and the Pats going on the road against a very hungry Bills team thinking about the playoffs. Buffalo is coming off a close win against the Chargers but it was a tough spot -- L.A. just fired its coach, the Chargers were on a mini-bye, the Bills were coming off an emotional road win and traveling across the country. Now the Bills are home, get to play a HATED division rival and can potentially clinch a playoff berth (there are like 14 different scenarios including ties, but five legit scenarios for Buffalo to clinch with a win).

This is a massive number for two teams very much involved in the NFC postseason. The Lions are still alive for the No. 1 seed and while a win here would put them in decent position to secure the bye, it's not likely the 49ers lose out and gift them the top spot. The Cowboys are licking their wounds after losing at Miami and continuing to lose on the road (just three road wins and none are impressive), while the Lions are coming off a massive road win against Minnesota that helped them clinch the division for the first time since 1993. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home, no matter the opponent.

This number feels way too low considering what we last saw in prime time from the Jaguars, when they squared off against the Bengals in Jacksonville. Yes, Trevor Lawrence is injured and the Ravens defense can be hyper aggressive, but the Jaguars should be able to score 17-20 points and do their half here. I don't think Baltimore will struggle to score at all -- we saw Lamar Jackson start using his legs more often last week than he had all season and he could uncork a high-end Lamar performance against a really bad Jags defense. Odell Beckham/Zay Flowers may be capable of filling the deep role and Isaiah Likely has enough upside for this offense not to miss a beat.

The Bills made this list last week, largely for the same reasons they're on the list this week: the bye week drama galvanized Buffalo's locker room and liberated the team with its offensive gameplan. Josh Allen has a legitimate shot to go nuclear for a month and get involved in the MVP race and the Bills, despite everything going wrong this season, could actually win the division. The Dolphins are battling a huge list of injuries and have a tough schedule; if the Bills win their next three and the Dolphins lose two out of three, Week 18 would be a de facto division title game and potentially even a win-and-in playoff battle. I don't think Buffalo is looking ahead, though.

Shootout city coming in Los Angeles. The Rams offense is starting to really get rolling with Kyren Williams back. Matthew Stafford looks like his best self right now and is low-key having an outstanding season. Sean McVay might deserve some serious love for COY based on what he's done with this roster. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua should have a field day against a terrible Commanders defense and Washington will proceed to just keep dropping Sam Howell back over and over again in a comeback attempt. They should score enough to keep Stafford throwing and push this over the total.