Will's Picks (1 Live)
Baker is all kinds of banged up which would generally lead you to believe he *won't* run in this game. But it's actually the opposite -- see: Justin Herbert on Monday -- as quarterbacks who are hurt are more willing to take off and run to avoid massive shots in the pocket when they can dictate when/how they get contacted out in the open field. This is also a late-season, prime-time game at home (it's not quite must-win, but it's close for the stumbling Bucs) and I'd expect Baker to lay it on the line. Mayfield has cleared this number fairly easily in each of his last four games and I don't see him staying stationary in this matchup.
Godwin will be the primary underneath guy for the Bucs in this one. Baker might need to get the ball out quick to avoid contact from a dangerous Falcons defensive front and with Mike Evans (possibly back!) and Emeka Egbuka drawing coverage, Godwin should be open underneath. If there's any kind of need to pass whatsoever, Godwin should get here and it looks like they might be slowly ramping up his snaps, so we're hoping to get something in the range of 72 to 75 percent of the offensive plays for the crafty veteran. He had three in his first game back and five last week, but should have had one more that he dropped in the end zone against New Orleans.
I can see Bijan having a big role in the passing game on Thursday night. Tampa is tough to run against, but will happily (well, not happily but you get the point) concede receiving yards to running backs. James Cook went for 66 yards against them and Zonovan Knight/Michael Carter combined for 80+ in recent weeks. Bijan had 100 (!) receiving yards in Week 1 against a much healthier version of this defense as well. The Falcons aren't dummies and will let Kirk Cousins alleviate pressure by dumping it off to Bijan early and often.
With their quarterback fresh off a left-hand surgery, the Chargers need to make sure and get the ball out of Justin Herbert's hands as fast as possible on Monday night. There's no better way to do that than to feed Ladd McConkey, whose reception-per-game numbers are a little down this year. That's affording us a really nice price on the over 4.5 here at plus money. If Ladd is involved early we could get here by halftime.
Usually Justin Herbert to not throw an interception is a pretty pricey endeavor, because the Chargers QB is so notoriously good at protecting the football. But because of Herbert having surgery last week (on his non-throwing hand) we're getting a really good price on him here to protect the football. I think he'll get minimal pass attempts because of the overall game environment and the Chargers gameplan and when he does they should be short hitters. The Chargers won't want to risk him holding the ball a ton or giving the Eagles chances to flip the field with a turnover.
The Chargers are bringing back Omarion Hampton from injured reserve and as a result, the market presented some nice value for Kimani Vidal. There's almost no chance Hampton is going to be a full-blown workhorse in his first game back -- the carry prop numbers indicate as much -- and Vidal could absolutely get high-value touches against a physical Eagles defense in short-yardage areas on Monday night. At 3-1 I'm willing to speculate it on it and don't mind his first touchdown scorer price either. If Hampton gets banged up or there are negative pregame reports about Hampton's usage, this will look like a steal of a price.
The Chargers aren't in a "must-win" spot here per se, but this is certainly a massive game for Jim Harbaugh's team. The fact Justin Herbert is playing a week after speaks volumes to the importance of this matchup. The total does too and the fact it's in the low 40's tells me we're going to see a lot of running the ball on both sides. If the Eagles come out trying to run with no Lane Johnson, I think they'll struggle against a strong Chargers defense. And I trust Harbs and Herbert to get the job done at home on Monday night.
Jamo went nuts when Amon-Ra St. Brown left the game on Thanksgiving against the Packers and if the star Lions wideout can't go on his ankle, then this number will end up at like -125 or so I would think, given the massive total and his usage with ARSB off the field. It's already moved almost 10 cents as of Tuesday morning, if St. Brown is ruled out or doesn't look like he'll play, even money will feel like a steal.
This is primarily a play on what we expect (see: above) to be a less enthusiastic passing game than what's being expected as well as Rice's injury status. The star receiver is playing with a banged-up hamstring and he was flexing/stretching on the field Sunday after going down before contact on multiple receptions. Kansas City might very well need him to produce if the game turns into a shootout and/or they're trailing and this thing could be done at half given how much work he does near the line of scrimmage. If the Chiefs are controlling this game at all, I'd expect them to limit the number of snaps Rice sees. And that means less opportunities for receptions.
The 49ers have Brock Purdy back and will be able to shred the Panthers early on offense. What will result is Carolina throwing it around on the 49ers injury-depleted defense. San Francisco might cover, but the Panthers are the most easily swayed tempo team in football. They want to run and if they don't do it early, they'll bail and let Bryce Young throw for 448 yards -- the most ever in a single game by a Panthers quarterback and somehow no one noticed. This has all the makings of a sneaky shootout.
We're going right back to the Adams well, even though the price is a little ridiculous. But the world is finally catching up to Adams res-zone prowess: he still leads the NFL in red-zone targets and he's in the middle of an incredibly positive touchdown regression run, having scored seven touchdowns in his last four games. The Buccaneers likely to bottle up the run, as they are wont to do, which means Matthew Stafford will need to do work against Tampa's secondary. Which means Adams targets, particularly the ones in high-leverage spots and down by the goal line.
The Seahawks are in a great bounceback after their loss to the Rams. They're massive 13.5-point favorites on the road against the woeful Titans and their defense should smother Cam Ward. I'd expect the Seahawks to run the ball effectively, which means Sam Darnold is going to have plenty of deep play-action looks. That sets up perfectly for Shaheed, who should have scored against the Rams except for a teensy bit of an underthrow by Darnold coupled with an excellent defensive play by Emmanual Forbes, Jr. Seattle would like to get Shaheed in the end zone sooner rather than later after acquiring him at the trade deadline. This week is the week.
Honestly I thought the Chiefs would be -4.5 here. That's no disrespect to the Colts at all, but Kansas City is 5-5 and has to win this game or else they legitimately might not make the playoffs. I'm willing to wager on Patrick Mahomes laying three points at home in a game against Daniel Jones in which, if Patrick Mahomes loses, he's staring down the likelihood of not only missing the AFC title game for the first time ever but also missing the playoffs for the first time ever. It's not a perfect matchup, but the Chiefs are coming off a bad road loss to the Broncos so the market is down. It's trying to move up and I want to get them a FG.
This is a great spot for Jamo because of the amount of single-high coverage the Giants play on defense. Even better: the Lions were suffered their greatest humiliation of the season on Sunday night against the Eagles. And when the Lions are embarrassed, they extract their revenge, going 13-0 SU and ATS in their last, uh, 13 games under Dan Campbell after a loss. That means Goff slinging it and with Sam LaPorta on IR, it should mean lots of looks for Williams, who is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball. Jamo's set up for an explosive close to the season and when he's indoors against a questionable back end of a defense I want to bet on him scoring.