Seattle has dominated this rivalry recently, and I expect that to continue on Thursday night. Arizona has some nice pieces, but just hasn't looked good in 2025 despite its 2-1 overall record. Seattle has been far more impressive and is in better shape on the injury front. I don't love back road teams on TNF, but I'm doing it here.

Seattle’s defensive has been above average to begin the season and the Cardinals are banged up offensively. James Connor is out for the season and Arizona has a beat-up offensive line. Even though the Seahawks exploded offensively last week, they will look to control the tempo of the game and make Kyler Murray uncomfortable. The under is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these two as well.

This line shifted significantly through the week, so while we’re not getting the best value here, it ultimately landed where it should. The Seahawks have dominated the Cardinals in recent history, even when the personnel has changed. The Cardinals are struggling offensively and not about to get any better with James Conner now sidelined, though Trey Benson does have legitimate talent. With Marvin Harrison Jr. struggling and Zay Jones still out, there’s few weapons at Kyler Murray’s disposal. Meanwhile, Seattle appears to have found its stride offensively. Arizona is likely favored because it’s desperate and hosting on a short week. That’s not enough for me to give it the benefit of the doubt like I might others teams in similar situations.

The hype surrounding the sudden emergence of Benson as the RB1 in Arizona due to veteran James Connor's season-ending injury has gotten a bit out of hand. This is especially true in the fantasy football world, where numerous analysts would have you believe the former Florida State star is the second coming of Jim Brown, If this were the case, he'd have been the starter already. Although there's no doubt he will be the volume workhorse, it's difficult to see him clipping this combo line against a solid Seattle defense unless he breaks one long play.

All Seattle is how this shapes up. The Seahawks have owned divisional rival Arizona, having swept the past seven matchups -- the last two by double-digits. The visitors have won eight of the last nine on the road. 'Zona has failed this season to hit the modest total of 300 offensive yards and now are missing its bulwark, injured RB James Conner. On defense, CB Will Johnson likely sits out, opening the door for another solid outing by QB Sam Darnold. Seattle sports an envious combo of a No. 5 ranking in points scored and No. 2 in points allowed. Nearly all signs point to them.

This is a huge line for Trey Benson who is set to be the Cardinals feature RB after James Conners season ending injury. While Conner is going to have expanded role, he’s never been a strong receiving back and I believe the third down work is going to go to Emari Demarcado who not only profiles as a third down back/pass catching specialist but has been utilized that historically. Last season James Conner who I believe is a more natural pass catcher compared to Benson was held under this line in 10/16 appearances.

Arizona has operated at a snail's pace to start the season. Everything Jonathan Gannon's offense is doing is methodical and controlled which has yielded benefits for his stop unit. Kyler Murray currently ranks 3rd in intended air yards this season, ahead of only Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. Zona throws to their WR with less than 40% of their target share as well. Seattle is getting healthier on defense as well with Devon Witherspoon and Julien Love expected to return. Seattle's offense is also a bit methodical for me and think on a short week explosives could be limited. Sounds like a perfect recipe for a 1H under for us tonight in primetime.

Seattle and Arizona have stayed under in six of their last nine meetings, and I think that's the way it's going to go tonight. Both Seattle and Arizona have played San Francisco this year, and those are the type of games I expect tonight; Seattle lost 17-13 to San Francisco, and Arizona lost 16-15. Arizona has an improved defense this season, ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed. Seattle allows 15.7 points per game, which is second in the NFL, and Arizona allows 17 points per game, which ranks fifth. Under is the play.

Colorado State has produced some really good WRs in the last decade (Michael Gallup, Rashard Higgins, Bisi Johnson, Warren Jackson, etc.) and Horton may be the best of them all. He has made an immediate impact in the NFL, and when looking at the coaches tape, he looks like the clear-cut No. 2 WR in Seattle right now. This is a spot where I expect Seattle to lean heavily on its passing attack. Look for Horton to see an uptick in targets here. I'm also playing Horton to go Over 22.5 receiving yards (BetMGM).

Despite losing to the Seahawks in both matchups last season, Cardinals TE Trey McBride feasted against them. In his two games against Seattle, McBride combined for 19 receptions & 203 receiving yards on 29 targets. Seattle’s defense is strongest on the outside with their top-tier DB’s, so McBride can find opportunities over the middle against Mike McDonald’s zone-heavy scheme. McBride went over this receiving yards total in 10/16 games last season. This is up to 65.5 on some books, so grab it now.

The Seahawks have dominated the Cardinals, winning the last seven meetings, and they haven't been close either, with six of the seven games being won by eight points or more by Seattle. Arizona was favored in both games last year and lost by 10 or more in both games. The Cardinals beat two of the worst teams in the NFL in the first two games and then lost to an injury-plagued 49ers squad, 16-15. Arizona's also without running back James Conner, who's out for the year, and they have a wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr., who had a horrible game at San Francisco last week, dropping big passes. Everything says Seattle is going to win again, but I'm on Arizona in a low-scoring game.

Seattle’s secondary has already been playing at a Top-10 level, and now will return two of their best players in CB Devon Witherspoon and FS Julian Love. Arizona’s defense has quietly continued to take steps forward, and will get back CB Max Melton. Both defenses are stout against the run, and the Cardinals lost their RB1 James Conner for the season. Cardinals LT Paris Johnson is banged up and if he doesn’t go, their offensive line may have serious issues. For this short week divisional matchup, I’d play the Under at 43.5 or 44 if you can find it.

Murray has gone over this rushing yards total in 3/3 games to start this season. Seattle’s secondary looks to be one of the league’s best, and will return two key assets in CB Devon Witherspoon & FS Julian Love. Cardinals starting LT Paris Johnson and backup LT Kelvin Beachum are both questionable to play, and if Murray’s pocket is collapsing early and often he’s going to be forced to take off. Seattle plays a lot of zone coverage, so I expect Murray to try to find soft spots and pick up first downs with his legs.

I’m fading Trey Benson who is set to receive his first start where he is likely to serve as Arizona’s feature RB after losing James Conner to a season ending injury. Benson has flashed some upside on a couple big runs this season, however those big runs are not sustainable long term, Benson hasn’t looked great, the Cardinals offensive line is subpar, and this would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup. So far Seattle is 4th in EPA allowed per rush. It also remains to be seen how much Emari Demarcardo plays. Benson thus far has failed to make a big impact as a receiver which is why I’m attacking the combo line. I’d play this down to 81.5.

Zach Charbonnet was listed as a full practice participant this week and could return from his foot injury. Officially he's questionable. Even if he's inactive, I like fading Walker on his carries because of the matchup. Arizona plays at the slowest offensive pace, which means fewer plays, and the Cardinals have been a pass-funnel so far. Opponents have run the ball against them just 29.3 percent of the time. Seattle lost its starting fullback to injury last week, another blow to the running game.

It's tough to run against the Cardinals' front featuring Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson. Arizona gives up 3.8 yards per carry. With Sam Darnold forced to throw more, I like rookie Tory Horton to continue his breakout. He ran a route on 76 percent of Darnold's dropbacks last week, and Darnold owns a 116.7 passer rating when targeting the Colorado State product.

Home teams have an edge to begin with in these short week contests. On top of this, Arizona is looking to avenge being swept by their division foes last season. Over the summer, the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites. Because of what people have seen out of the Seahawks the last two weeks, they have flipped to the favorite. They beat the Steelers who can't stop the run and the beat the Saints who can't do much of anything. Now feeling a bit fat and happy, Seattle goes on the road, in division, and is laying points? No thanks. Arizona wins this outright.

Trey Benson's the unquestioned starter now with James Conner's season unfortunately done. That should mean plenty of carries, but I'm more interested in his receiving props: Conner and Benson totaled 20 targets from Kyler Murray in three games combined and I'm allocating a significant portion of that to Benson versus a 50/50 split elsewhere. He's much more capable of a big play than Conner when catching the ball and if the Cardinals find themselves trailing, should clear this easily via game script.

The Seahawks are showing a lot of early faith in Tory Horton, a fifth-round rookie who ended up running the same number of routes in Week 3 as Cooper Kupp. This is a really low number for someone who might see increased usage against a secondary that's battling some injuries.

There's no question Trey McBride is the focal point of the Cardinals passing attack and taking an under on McBride is a little risky, especially since he's hit this over twice in three games this year. But he's only caught one ball more than 20 yards down the field and I'd expect Kyler to pepper him underneath and near the goal line rather than down the field against a dangerous defense.

Kyler Murray looks much more spry as a runner so far in 2025 and has easily topped this number in each game so far. Our model his him at 34 yards, and I do think Murray might pick up a carry or two extra with No. 1 running back James Conner lost for the season.

DraftKings (220+ yards at -119). Sam Darnold is only 1/3 on this line, but the matchup should play in his favor on Thursday. Arizona’s defense is already dealing with several injuries at cornerback, and opponents have been looking to exploit that. Through three games, the Cardinals have allowed the most pass attempts (47.3) and the second highest pass play percentage in neutral game scripts (70%, per RotoViz). Plus, Arizona’s run defense has been stout (3.8 yards per rush), and the Seahawks ground game has yet to take off (3.3 yards per attempt). Darnold should be able to make the most of pass volume - his 9.0 yards per pass attempt is third best thus far. I’d bet this up to over 229.5 yards.

This line is over at BetMGM and it's on the move at other major books. The Seattle passing attack isn't something to get super excited about outside of the JSN target share, but I think all three receivers can have roles in this game (JSN, Kupp, Horton), particularly with a banged up Cardinals secondary. Horton has had 4 targets in each of the last two games (32 yards in both) and he's likely to earn more, particularly after having a special teams and receiving TD last week. His route share continues to rise and the coaches absolutely love him. I don't hate sprinkling in a ladder to 40+ (+220) and 50+ (+350).

We haven't seen Jaxon Smith-Njigba find the end zone since Week 1, but that should come to a halt against the Cardinals in a critical NFC West showdown on Thursday night. Njigba's has been getting FED by Sam Darnold and I'd expect the Cards to load the box in the red zone, forcing a few throws. Add in a depleted Arizona secondary that's been beaten through the air anyway the last two weeks by Bryce Young and Mac Jones and I think we see JSN score on Thursday night.

Put it in my Tuesday column on CBS, but it felt like the wrong team was favored in this game. Vegas agreed, moving the line across zero and making the Seahawks road favorites on a short week in Arizona. I'm backing the Seahawks on the moneyline now as I think this could run out even further towards SEA -3 if the Seattle injury report continues to look promising. The Cardinals are banged up on the back end and Seattle's defense is only getting healthier. Sam Darnold's looked pretty sharp in his early Seattle run and Kenneth Walker should feast here.

The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win over the Saints, but they had just 104 net yards of offense by the time the score was 28-3. You can't count on extreme outcomes on special teams every week, and I see this primetime game being more of a low-scoring chess match between two good defenses. Seattle has yet to allow more than 17 points in a game, and the same would be true for the Cardinals had they not suffered a number of injuries at corner during their Week 2 game against Carolina. I see this as a 20-17 game either way, so the best play on the game is likely to be the Under.

Our model would price this at -110 so this is only a good value at plus money if you can get it. Kyler Murray has averaged more interceptions at home (0.8) than on the road (0.6) and his over percentage is 56.8% at home (vs 47.6% on the road). He has taken care of the ball this season with just 1 INT but they have also scored just 21 pts per game which is a low number when you've played the Saints and Panthers. Seattle has 5 interceptions this season and they've been playing without elite CB Devon Witherspoon and 2nd round pick, Nick Emmanwori. If both are back this line will probably cost you more so lock this in at a good price now.

Our projected rush attempts for Benson is actually slightly under his 14.5 line so it's quite notable that we are projecting him for well over 70 rushing yards. So this line implies right around 100 rushing yards for the team. Our model relies heavily on last year's stats early in the season and last season the Cardinals averaged 163 rushing yards per game at 5.5 ypc. Seattle allowed 123 yards per game on the road at 4.7 ypc. As a result we have Arizona projected for 140 team rushing yards which results in a lot of over value for Benson.

Tory Horton has had 4 targets, 32 rec yards and 1 TD in Week 2 and Week 3. We are still getting a slightly under the radar line on him and I think this will be the last week we get that. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp's combined reception lines add up to 10 and Sam Darnold's completion line is a juiced over 19.5. The line is based on Horton's 9.3% of team receptions after 3 games, but he had none in Week 1. Since establishing himself as WR3 he's had over 13% of team receptions which is why we are projecting well over 1.5 (3.1 projection).

DraftKings is charging -105 for the Seattle money line, which implies 51.2% and is basically the same as our 53.1% simulation win percentage. The +1.5 at -118 translates to 54.1%, and the model gives Seattle a 57% of covering that line, which makes the spread a slightly better value. Usually, the road team playing on Thursday Night struggles, but the Seahawks barely had to play after the first half versus New Orleans because they were up so much, so they should be as well-rested as you can be on a short week.

The Cardinals started 2-0 against meager competition and still managed to have some scary moments after getting complacent with seemingly comfortable leads. Their defense has been solid, but the offense has lacked consistency and big plays. This is a major swing game for both clubs in a super competitive NFC West race and we like the Seahawks, amid their edge in current form, to pull off a win in a right game and send Arizona to its second consecutive loss.