Quentin Grimes has gone over this line in three of his last four with his low being 14 points. He has played at least 32 minutes with at least 10 FGAs. The line is not higher because Paul George (and Joel Embiid) are listed as probable and questionable respectively. But I'm never going to assume both will play and if they do that both will play starters minutes with starters usage. Grimes is averaging 17.2 this season and has scored 15+ points in 9 of 15 games and we are projecting him for his 'normal' '25-26 game in his normal 30 minutes and 12ish FGAs.

The Wizards don't defend at all based on their 132 ppg allowed. These are ripe conditions for any Hawk player to go over on assists. The Wizards are also a bad rebounding team averaging a -10 at home. The Hawks 'only' get outrebounded by 3 on the road (-6 at home) so this is also a good spot for Hawk rebounders to have a better than average game. Onyeka Okongwu plays a lot of minutes even though he is listed as Kristaps Porzingis' backup. If this is a blowout they'd presumably sit Porzingis and Okongwu would play full minutes.

Dennis Schroder has been on a nice run. Outside of a 41 point blowout loss to Memphis, he's put up 14/6/6, 22/6/5, 21/5/3, and 21/3/7 in 4 of his last 5 games. This run, along with Domantas Sabonis' injury, has steamed his lines up. Even in his dud scoring game (3 pts vs Memphis) he still had 6 assists. I'm going to fade his assists on a line that I think has steamed up too high fueled by a few unsustainably positive team stats. Versus Denver the Kings shot 62% on two point shots while committing just 6 turnovers. He had 6 assists despite the team only scoring 96 at Memphis which indicates to me an unusually high shooting% for his assist opportunities.

Joker had 44 points (16/28 shooting), 13 rebounds and 7 assists and somehow the Nuggets lost to the Sacramento Kings at home. The Nuggets are a true contender because of greater depth but now they are down two key starters (Christian Braun since 11/15) and now Aaron Gordon who was having a career year (18.8 points, 53 FG%, 44 3PT%). Jokic comes in 6-2 over this line with 57 and 44 his last 2 games which coincide with Gordon's re-injury two games ago (played 3 minutes) and the next game. Denver will be motivated after a bad home loss to the Kings while also not being great enough to blow out Memphis on the road requiring Jokic to put up big scoring and rebounding numbers.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. been nothing short of terrific this season even hitting exactly 7 assists in 6 of his last 8 games (4 in the other two) leading to an impressive 11-6 (7-1 at home) record for Miami playing without Bam for a stretch and Tyler Herro, who is making his return tonight. He is crushing this line this season (12-4 over with a 29.2 average) but with Herro's return we project him to be somewhere in between last season (14.8 avg) and this season with a 23 PRA projection. Herro's return will cut significantly into Jacquez's minutes and usage.

Aaron Gordon's minutes are up +2 vs last season, his rebounding is up +1.4 per game, his scoring is way up +5.6 per game, but in 12 games his assists per game have dropped massively from 3.2 to 1.4 per game. This drove his line to barely minus money on just 1.5 assists. In our model the three straight seasons of 3+ assists per game is keeping Gordon at a projection of 2.7 and I'll bank on stats accumulated over 200 games over ones based on a 12 game sample.

Bam Adebayo missed a couple of weeks due to injury but did not show any rust in his return putting up 20/7/3 with 2 blocks. But he did play slightly fewer minutes (29) than normal vs the Warriors. I don't think he'll need more than the one day to ramp back to his normal 34 minute level that he averaged for 3 straight seasons. Bam is no longer the 'point center' that he was 5 years ago when he'd average 5+ assists because his offense is better and the team needs his scoring. We're also getting a good line because his average on the road (3.9) is significantly lower than his 4.5 at home. In this game vs Chicago we project him for 4.7 assists.

Brooklyn is 100% focused on at least a 3 year rebuild and they are years away from having anything close to a good perimeter defense. They are allowing 42% 3-point shooting in the road games. The Celtics, without Jayson Tatum drawing double teams, have regressed badly at home shooting just 34% from 3-point range (high 30s for most of the last few seasons). I see a nice regression to the higher mean game for Boston vs the bad Nets 3-point "defense." We are getting a good line for Brown because he comes in just 3-6 over 1.5 in November. But since the start of last season he's much better at home averaging 2.1 makes vs. just a 1.6 average on the road.

He is soooo duuuuuue for a double digit rebound game. His recent stat lines have been pretty pathetic and his performance, or lack thereof, is directly correlated to a disappointing 2-2 homestand with bad double digit losses to Toronto and Houston. In both games the Cavs were beaten badly on the boards. The Pacers are using Tyrese Halliburton's injury and Myles Turner's departure as a perfect way to develop players but tank in terms of actual record to get even more talent in the draft. I think the Cavs will be motivated to dominate a team that shocked them in the playoffs last season even if their key players aren't there.

SGA's lines are lower than last season because OKC is killing teams by even a larger margin than last year's record breaking point differential team. Shai has not even played 30 minutes in his past 4 games and 5 of his last 6. The Over is just 7-23 when he plays 30 minutes or less vs 61-24 when he plays 31+ minutes since the start of his MVP season. Let's hope he gets 32 to 35 minutes (20-13 over 30.5 in this range). He's never had a stretch, since becoming THE MAN, playing under 30 minutes this many games, never mind all in a row.

Jarace Walker has been starting at shooting guard some this season but based on his current 1 for 16 from 3pt range stretch over 4 games, maybe he shouldn't be. Ben Mathurin returned from a long absence and put up 25 points in 25 minutes. PG Andrew Nembhard has upped his scoring 75% vs last season in the same number of minutes. His listed backup at SF is Ben Sheppard and he has played 22, 20 and 29 minutes in his last 3 games. Walker doesn't look like a prime candidate to play more than 25 minutes or get more than 9 FGAs tonight. Walker comes in with 7-0 under this line with closer to a 12 PTS+REB average. Look for that trend to continue.

I've bought a lot of Jarrett Allen stock this season (and last) but he hasn't delivered great results. He's usually far more active and productive at home but on this current home stand he has just 34 total points in 3 games. This after popping for 30 and 10 boards at Miami before the homestand. Since last season he has a considerably higher home average (14.1) than road (13.3). Even with the 3 game dip he comes in 8-4 over 12.5 points. I think Allen being aggressive on the boards, especially the offensive rebounds, while trying to beat Alperen Sengun in transition will be critical to try to get him in foul trouble and hurt both Houston's offense and rebounding.

LeBron James averaged around 40 PRA last season as a 40 year old, so this line with the juice implies a 35% haircut on his average in what looks like his first game back. But the 'showman' makes me think that he wouldn't return if he wasn't 100% ready to go and with him there is no load management. I expect his 5-0 over 25.5 PRA in his first game back to go to 6-0. I figure they'll either announce he's not returning tonight which will rescind the bet or he'll be back and he'll be LeBron James, who does shoot much better at home (53.2% FG, 43.1% 3pt) than on the road (49.6% FG, 31.8% 3pt).

It's safe to assume with Wemby's injury that Luke Kornet will probably start and have 25+ minutes. But going back to last season in Boston the under is 14-6 in games he played 25+ minutes and he averaged 10 RE+AST. We are projecting him for just 8.5. He is not someone who consistently gets 9, 10 or 11 in this situation. He'll have 1 in 22 minutes like he did on 11/12 vs the Warriors and then 12 in 28 minutes like he did two games later vs the Clippers. I'm also hoping that the team leaves plenty of minutes to other centers on the team like Kelly Olynyk who can provide the 3pt shooting threat that they lose with Wemby out.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's minutes are up from 25.3 with Minnesota to 30.4 (+20%) in Atlanta as he's taken over a very prominent role on the team with Trae Young out. His scoring has nearly doubled from 9.4 to 17.8 (+89%) and his assists are up from 2.7 to 3.6 (+33%). Atlanta has won 5 in a row including a 4 game road winning streak where they scored 124, 132, and 133 their last 3 games. Alexander-Walker put up 14/6/4 in 22, 16/2/5 in 30, and 26/3/4 in 35 in these 3 games. This is a +$$$ bet on a line well under his current season's average and our projection.