The Bucs absolutely dominated the Commanders in their previous meeting this season, but that was all the way back in Week 1. The difference for me here is Tampa Bay's rushing defense. The Bucs are one of the league's best at stopping the run, and they are good enough to make Washington's offense one-dimensional. On the other side, I expect a big game from Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving. To top it off, Antoine Winfield is back for the Bucs. Tampa by 6+ here.

Irving has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 rookie class. The former Oregon standout has established himself as one of the premier all-purpose backs in the NFL, despite opening the season as Tampa Bay's backup. Irving is facing a Washington defense that has had issues defending the run, and I expect the Bucs to lean heavily on Irving on Sunday night.

Legitimate toss-up. The Buccaneers have been terrible in primetime. The Commanders have only beaten one quality team. Jayden Daniels is a rookie making his first playoff start on the road, yet he’s not a normal rookie. Both rush well, but Washington can’t defend the run. Both throw well, but Tampa Bay can’t defend the pass. The Bucs are getting secondary help with Antoine Winfield, and their ability to lean on Bucky Irving to churn clock and extend drives should be critical. If the Commanders’ pass protection is not on point, the Bucs’ strong defensive front should impede some of Daniels’ scrambling. Washington is on an 0-3 ATS streak on the road, and Baker Mayfield has playoff experience playing well in the 2023 wild card.

The Bucs have quietly been one of the NFL's best offenses this season, and the Commanders have been explosive as well with rookie QB Jayden Daniels running the show. These teams combined for 57 points earlier this season, and I see a similar output on Sunday night.

Down the stretch of the season Jalen McMillan’s confidence grew along with the trust from Baker Mayfield. In each of his last five games he has had fifty yards or more. Mike Evans is going to garner heavy attention, along with Bucky Irving out of the backfield. Look for Mayfield to continue to connect with his growing rookie wideout in McMillan. Play his over.

Breakout TE Cade Otton will return to action for Tampa Bay tonight, after missing the last three games with a knee injury. Otton’s presence in the middle of the field was key to this Bucs offense. Mike Evans will be matched up with his rival, CB Marshon Lattimore. Mayfield spreads the ball to all targets, and he will find a reliable tight end in between the numbers. Otton went over this line in 8 games this season. There is no doubt that Otton is capable of going for 30+ receiving yards, so our gamble is ultimately on his health. Otton logged full practices on Thursday & Friday, and by all accounts he is good to go. I like him to clear this modest total easily.

Sunday’s first game offered a reminder of the challenges facing rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games. Those teams fell to 5-18 straight-up with Denver’s loss at Buffalo as Bo Nix was average after the Broncos’ initial possession. Although Jayden Daniels is no typical first-year QB, the numbers don’t lie. For the Commanders, the bigger concern is their defense. It ranks 30th against the run, and Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving and the rest of the ground attack are on a tear. It also has been sketchy against elite receivers, and there are few better than Mike Evans. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is 2-1 outright in the postseason, which inspires confidence against the untested Daniels.

I'm not a big believer in the Bucs, but they are a LOT healthier today then they were last Sunday in a must-win struggle over New Orleans with All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield among those back. Washington's Jayden Daniels looks as if he will be special -- not ready to say the Bears made a mistake taking Caleb Williams as I think he will be very good (but perhaps not special) -- but the Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their past three away and rookie QBs are 0-6 SU in road playoff games over the past 10 years after Bo Nix and Denver got blown out this afternoon.

Our favorite angle of the wild card round might be this total in Tampa. Not as much because the first meeting, back on opening day, landed 37-20 in the Bucs' favor. Rather, it's what happened thereafter, especially as the Commanders got up to speed very quickly behind LSU Heisman rookie QB Jayden Daniels, landing over in 10 of their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Bucs have trended over all season, hitting 30 points most weeks and 11-3 over to close the campaign. Not to be outdone by Daniels, Baker Mayfield enjoyed his most-productive NFL season in the Liam Coen offense, shattering his career-best mark by tossing a whopping 41 TD passes. Play Commanders-Bucs Over

Daniels threw a 30+ yard pass in 10 games this season. He faces a Bucs secondary that has struggled all year. Tampa ranks 29th in total pass defense, and allowed 243.9 pass yards per game (4th worst in the NFL). Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is known for his blitz-heavy defensive scheme, which leaves them susceptible to explosive plays. Daniels can soften this defense with his legs, and then beat them over the top when they overcommit to the blitz. Look for a deep shot to Terry McLaurin.

Love the price here. Most others over -160. Wash hasn’t beaten a real QB in months. Baker shines.

Power back Brian Robinson should struggle versus Tampa Bay's run defense, which has allowed the fewest yards per carry over the past five games. Facing Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy scheme, Jayden Daniels will be looking for quick outlets like running back Austin Ekeler. Ekeler caught four passes for 52 yards in the season opener at Tampa Bay and should be busy again Sunday night.

When Washington played the Falcons in a critical Week 17 game, Jayden Daniels ran 16 times for 127. When he faced Todd Bowles' blitzing defense in Week 1, Daniels also ran 16 times, for 88 yards. The Bucs are outstanding at stopping traditional running-back carries. Look for Daniels to run at least nine times in the Wild Card game at Tampa Bay.

Terry McLaurin has caught a career-high 13 touchdown passes. McLaurin has caught 13 of his 15 red zone targets for nine touchdown passes in the red zone. He is quite literally a red zone touchdown magnet. I like getting this price and plus odds for the Commander's go-to weapon in the redzone.

Rookie Jalen McMillian has been a key factor in the Buccaneers making the postseason. In the last five weeks, he has caught 316 receiving yards on 19.4% of the team's targets. He has gone over this receiving line in four of the last five games. Washington plays a lot of man coverage, and McMillian is targeted on 28.6% of his routes against man coverage these last five games. I like McMillian to go over this line again on Sunday.

This is no longer a committee backfield for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucky Irving has had an exceptional rookie season and is the true workhorse running back. Irving is ranked top 10 in several running back statistics, including yards per carry, yards after contact, success rate, and plenty of others. He now has a pristine matchup against the Commanders' run defense, who rank 30th in yards per carry to enemy backs. He has soared past this longest rush prop in three of the last four games and I expect him to do it again Sunday.

It's never pleasant fading a future hall of famer who also is one of the hottest WRs in the NFL, but alas here we are. Evans went on a tear to close the season and averaged over 100 yards per game over the final six weeks, en route to his 11th consecutive 1,000 yard season. While the numbers are certainly impressive, the opponents were not, and Evans was force fed targets as the team prioritized getting him the record. This has caused this line to inflate and the Commanders are a very tough matchup for opposing WRs. Washing was awful to start the season which is why their season long stats aren't overly impressive, however down the stretch this was an elite pass defense.

Excluding Week 18 for obvious reasons, Daniels has 292 or more pass and rush yards in each of his past three and in 4 of his past 5. Tampa Bay's defense is one of the most consistent zone-coverage and blitz-heavy units in the league, meaning Daniels has to either get the ball out quickly or use his mobility to throw downfield or run for yardage. Furthermore, the Bucs run defense is among the best in the NFL in its past five games and the Commanders RBs haven't been as effective as they were earlier this year. More work will fall on Daniels' shoulders. Daniels had 88 rush yards in his first-ever game against the Bucs; it would be amazing if he hit that number here.

OIamide Zaccheaus has now established himself as the WR2 for Washington and that has resulted in hitting this total in three straight games. In what will likely be a neutral or negative game script, with Jayden Daniels projected for 230 passing yards, some of that production will go to Zaccheaus. Add that he also lines up in the slot a good amount which is a weak spot for the Bucs secondary. This number is at BetMGM. Other books have 37.5 and I'm fine with that number.

Bucs-Commanders has the highest total on the board for Wild Card Weekend and I expect Baker Mayfield to keep up his sizzling performances of late. He's over this number in 6 of his last 7 games including five straight. In those last five games, Mayfield hasn't totaled less than 289 total yards. With the exception of Trey Lance last week, the Commanders have been stingy against opposing quarterbacks but I think that changes on Sunday night. Expect a fun game with Mayfield once again topping 300 total yards.

McLaurin is coming off an epic end to the season, catching a game- winning TD pass to secure Washington the #6 seed. The Commanders thrilling Week 18 win rewards them with a favorable matchup against a weak Buccaneers secondary, which ranked 4th worst in passing yards allowed per game in the regular season (243.9). McLaurin has gone over this current line in 5 of his last 6 games, seeing 6+ targets in each of them as well. Tampa has three starting defensive backs that are currently ‘questionable’ to play with lingering injuries. Daniels & Mclaurin can attack this Bucs defense over the top.

I’m joining the Jayden Daniels rushing yards party. Daniels rushed for 50+ yards in 8 games this season, and likely would have done so 10+ times if not for a late season hip injury, and only playing the first half in Week 18. I expect the rookie QB to trust his legs in his first playoff game. This matchup is likely to be a shootout, with Daniels needing to answer scores from Baker Mayfield. If the Bucs do anything well on defense, it’s getting pressure up the middle behind DT Vita Vea. Look for Daniels to scramble early and often.

Jayden Daniels is a much better quarterback than he was in the season opener, a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay. But this is a bad matchup for the Commanders, who thrive on their rushing attack. The Bucs have allowed the fewest yards per carry and fourth-lowest success rate over the past five games. In the second half of the season, Washington ranks dead last in explosive pass plays. And All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield is set to return for Tampa Bay. Look for Bucky Irving to exploit Washington's suspect run defense as the Bucs cover.

Jayden Daniels should be up against a Tampa Bay secondary dealing with a number of injuries, but I still expect his work as a runner to be key to his output. He reached at least 66 yards in three straight games prior to seeing a 45% snap share of Week 18, and with mobile quarterbacks typically seeing an uptick in rushing production in the playoffs, I believe there's a good chance Daniels at least matches his 52.4-yard average here.

The Commanders OL looks shakier as the season went on. Designed runs are iffy. Even last week Marcus Mariota's legs were vital in moving the offense in the second half. Its a vital cog in this offense and Daniels has been a dynamo all season running around except for when his hip flared up. Ran for nearly 90 on TB Week 1. I don't see a blowout here, so I expect ample carries to get us over 50. Daniels has 66 rushing yards or more in 4 of the last 5 full games he's played. Bucs will make life tough on the RBs, but scramble drills will be huge. Bucs are 29th in EPA vs scrambles.

He was barely playing Week 1 vs Washington, and still tore off a 31-yard run. Commanders had 10 games this season in which they gave up a run of 20 yards or more. And Irving is clearly getting the bulk of carries now (39 in last 2 starts) so opportunity abounds. Irving had 8 games with a run of 25+ yards, despite a limited role for much of the season. His explosion helps make this offense go.

This is a near auto play for me. I don't like Commanders pass rush and their defensive stats are boosted by the array of horrible QBs this have largely faced. Baker killed them Week 1 and will again here. He's over this in 6 of 7 at home, with 19 passing TDs in that span. He's hit this in 5 straight games overall, with 16 passing TDs in that span. Even if Marshawn Lattimore kinda does the job on Mike Evans, the RBs and TEs can eat here.

I don't see any reason for Washington and the Buccaneers to go against what they've done all season and stop themselves from scoring. We've got the No. 4 and 5 best scoring teams in the NFL with the Bucs averaging 29.5 a game. If they just play their normal game they should be nearing 60. Washington went 11-6 to the over and Tampa Bay went 12-5 to the over. The weather is nice at 51 degrees. I'm thinking about Washington +3 but while I'm thinking I'm certain of the over.

The Commanders played the easiest schedule (30th) of all the playoff teams. They went 2-3 in outdoor road games. Washington is ranked 30th in run defense, while the Buccaneers are ranked 4th in run offense. The Bucs rank 4th in red zone offense, while Washington is 22nd in red zone defense. Tampa Bay owns the No. 1 third-down offense, while Washington is ranked 15th in third-down defense. The Commanders' defense was on the field for 75 plays and 37.03 possession time against Dallas. Washington has a negative sack differential (-0.4), and these teams struggle in the Wild Card round. The Buccaneers have established a playoff pedigree, making the divisional round last year, while the Commanders are brand new in post-season play.

Both defenses have issues. Not sure about either pass rush. And these QBs can cook. Bucs over in 5 of 6 and Commandos over in 6 of 8. Bucs 12-5 over this season and 6-3 over at home (51 PPG). WSH 5-3 over on road (51.4). Bucs averaging 32 PPG last 7 games; Jayden Daniels can score from anywhere with legs or arm. Bucs went over in 5 of 7 games vs playoff teams and WSH went over in 4 of 5. They combined for 57 points Week 1.