Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L0-4
ATS0-4
O/U2-2-0
FINAL SCORE
17
-
19
Indianapolis
Colts
IND
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-2
ATS3-1
O/U2-2-0
Last 5 ATS
0-4
Win /Loss
2-2
0-4
Spread
3-1
2-2-0
Over / Under
2-2-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Ward (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Al-Shaair (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Titans.
Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Tennessee.
Mallory (thumb) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Anderson (ankle) does not have an injury tag against the Titans on Sunday.
Slayton (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Dell (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Allen (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
The Texans struggles on both sides of the ball are legitimate, but they’re not necessarily uncommon. DeMeco Ryans has started 0-2 in three out of his four seasons as coach, and Houston started off playing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Now the vaunted defense faces Daniel Jones indoors, while the struggling offense goes against an Indianapolis D that cannot stop anything. The Texans have won five straight in the series, and the Colts haven’t won, period, in 10 months. If Houston loses, well, that’s shame on me for backing them three straight weeks, but with the Cowboys up next, 0-4 is a real possibility if the Texans don’t beat the Colts – and they know that.
We’ve seen and probably said this before over the last few seasons, the Houston Texans are probably the best winless team entering week three. This is another good get away spot for the Texans who've heard all the noise after their first two losses at home. But now they face Daniel Jones, who's nowhere near the likes of Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. The Colts offense doesn’t have the firepower, outside of Jonathan Taylor, that either of those teams do and this is a spot where the Houston defense will be able to take control of this game to get them their first win of the season.
Texans RB David Montgomery had 20 carries in Week 1 vs. the Bills, a game Houston scored 31 points. In Week 2 vs. the Bengals, Houston got away from the run (six carries for Montgomery) and the team managed just six points. Woody Marks got more carries in Week 2, but the Texans went into all-pass mode. Look for Montgomery to be the lead back again and to get fed here vs. a Colts defense that’s allowing 5.4 yards per carry.
Even though Houston is 0-2, they've had a decent passing attack with a non-existent run game. Stroud went for 275 and 353 yards in his two games this season. And the 353 was without WR1 Nico Collins, who is out again this week. The Colts defense has been the worst in the league through 2 weeks. They are last in scoring defense (37.0 PPG), last in total defense (514.5 YPG), 31st in rush defense (177.0) and last in pass defense (337.5). Lamar Jackson threw for 324 in Week 1 and Patrick Mahomes 382 and 3 last week. Keep in mind Mahomes and the Chiefs did nothing passing-wise vs. Denver in Week 1.
We've seen this number crater from 220.5 and I'd play it down to 210.5. Houston's pass defense has been bombarded by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow -- Daniel Jones isn't on their level. He's getting the ball out fast and keeping it short, and he's not quite as effective as he was to start 2025. Maybe that changes, but the Colts receiving group is awfully limited, the Texans pass defense and pass rush is considerably better than what they've showed this far, and this entire game could be controlled by the running backs.
Love fading Daniel Jones versus a very tough Texans pass defense that’s faced arguably the two best QBs in the league through the first two weeks. Now he gets Daniel Jones and a depleted group of Indianapolis pass catchers. I expect the Texans to really make life difficult for Jones and Indy is likely to lean on Jonathan Taylor as much as they can.
I'm laying the juice with my favorite kicker to bet, Ka'imi Fairbairn. He didn't hit my Week 1 points prop because the game vs. Buffalo turned into a shootout but bounced back with two field goals in Week 2. I look for a lower-paced game in Indianapolis on Sunday and at least three field goal attempts from the veteran kicker. Fairbairn made at least two field goals in 15 of 17 games last season and is 1 for 2 in 2026. The Colts have also already surrendered six made 3-pointers in two weeks. Expect plenty of volume for Houston's special teams weapon in what should be a must-win game for Houston.
Caesar’s. David Montgomery is coming off a six carry game against a surprisingly stout Bengals run defense. In Week 1, Monty had 20 totes in a much more balanced attack against the Bills. While these games are more floor/ceiling scenarios, I do see this week’s line as massive overreaction to the most recent box score. I don’t expect CJ Stroud to throw 55 times, especially since the Colts have been gashed by the run in each of their first two games (265 regulation running back rush yards on 5.4 yards per attempt). The Texans defense should be able to hold the Colts offense down to help Houston control the clock. There are rogue 11.5 lines out there, but the value on this line is better.
Alec Pierce’s absence means the Texans’ defense can focus on stopping Jonathan Taylor. While the Texans likely won’t have Nico Collins again, they should be able to do enough to get to 20 points against a leaky Colts’ defense. This number has come down to the point where there is value on the preseason AFC South favorites.
The Colts enter this game looking for their first win but as the shortest underdogs we've seen to date. Jones threw for less than 170 yards in regulation in his first two games despite playing from well behind in the first and facing a back-and-forth game against a great defense in the second. Pass defenses don't get much tougher than Houston, who struggled against Josh Allen but held Joe Burrow to 207 yards with much better weapons than Jones will have at his disposal. He might struggle to top even 200 yards in this game as the Colts run the offense through Jonathan Taylor.
FanDuel. When Alec Pierce went down with an injury last week, Keenan Allen’s role didn’t change - it was Lawton Treadwell who stepped in to take Pierce’s place. Allen remained third in route share amongst the wide receivers, running mostly underneath routes. His average depth of target this season is 5.1 yards, and only one of his eleven targets have traveled more than ten air yards. He’ll have a brutal matchup against the Texans secondary, whom despite their slow start are due to bounce back (their first two games coming against Josh Allen and Joe Burrow did not help).
Houston’s offensive line is struggling. C.J. Stroud has faced more pressure than any other quarterback this season, which helps explain why the Texans rank 30th in yards per play and 20th in EPA per play. With top receiver Nico Collins sidelined by a hamstring injury, Houston just can’t create separation on the outside to ease that pressure. The Texans’ defense is giving up explosive pass plays on a league-worst 23.3% of attempts. Meanwhile, Indianapolis enters this matchup with solid trench play and an efficient run game (4.4 yards per carry), while ranking third in red-zone scoring. Yes, Indy hasn’t won since last November (nine straight losses), and the Texans have won the last five matchups, though they’ve only covered the spread twice in those games.
Both these teams have started 0-2, but this line is telling us not to worry about the Texans. Why? The Colts were about the same number at home against the Ravens, an AFC favorite rated higher than Houston, in Week 1. While the Texans had a better showing last week, the Colts looked better in a tougher spot in Week 2 when Houston was missing Nico Collins. The star WR is expected to miss this matchup as well, and that makes this line closer to pick 'em for me in Indy, so I'm going to grab it now while 3s are available.
