Atlanta
Falcons
ATL
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-6
ATS3-6
O/U4-5-0
FINAL SCORE
35
-
14
Green Bay
Packers
GB
Last 5 ATS
W/L5-3
ATS5-3
O/U2-6-0
Last 5 ATS
3-6
Win /Loss
5-3
3-6
Spread
5-3
4-5-0
Over / Under
2-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Jacobs (hand) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Hopper (chest) is questionable to return to Sunday's Week 9 game against New England.
Lloyd (knee) is listed as inactive Sunday at New England, Mike Spofford of the Packers' official site reports.
Nixon (groin) is active for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Mike Spofford of the Packers' official site reports.
Penix completed 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown with an interception in Sunday's 34-17 loss to Cincinnati. He added 50 rushing yards on three carries.
Pitts caught three of five targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.
Robinson carried the ball 19 times for 100 yards and a touchdown and caught six of seven targets for 47 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.
London caught all five of his targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.
Watson (ribs) will be "full go" in Sunday's game at New England, per Jay Glazer on Fox NFL Sunday.
Zaccheaus (head) has returned to Sunday's matchup against Cincinnati in Madrid, Spain, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
There are a lot of questions to answer in this TNF showdown, including whether the Falcons will be much improved with a legitimate quarterback (yes) and whether the Packers are truly in a bad way (TBD). If this were not a tentpole game, frankly, we'd let it slide ... but we like to play primetime. Fueling this decision is Green Bay playing its home opener with a strong defense that should at least limit Bijan Robinson and put pressure on Michael Penix Jr. after two weeks out. Besides those rust and potential chemistry issues for the Falcons. Jordan Love's accuracy has been an issue, but he's hit on explosives, and the Falcons gave up nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs to Bryce Young last week.
Christian Watson is one of arguably just 3 healthy pass catchers for the Packers right now along with Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft. Green Bay has an OL that resembles a mash unit as well so it's of critical importance that receiver and QB are on the same page if the ground game goes nowhere. Atlanta also enters this game down their top cover corner in AJ Terrell and the numbers with him on and off the field over the years are staggering. This price has run some so it's a small bet at current knowing we still have strong upside.
As a Packers fan, I'm already prepared for a season of disappointment. The offensive line is in shambles and the team doesn't have a halfway-proven NFL running back on its active roster. But it does have a couple of good wide receivers, including second year deep threat Matthew Golden. The 2025 first round pick has 18 targets through two weeks, one less than Christian Watson, and is over this yardage total in his last three games dating back to the Wild Card Game in January vs. Chicago. Against a depleted Falcons secondary and with fellow wide receiver Jayden Reed out for a long while, I think both Golden and Watson are great bets to top 75 yards receiving on Thursday night.
The Packers average 3.3 yards per carry and are going pass-heavy. They just lost slot receiver Jayden Reed to a neck injury. When Reed exited the Week 2 loss at the Jets, Tucker Kraft's route participation increased. He finished the game with 84 percent route participation and played nearly every offensive snap. That's significant given his box score, which showed just two catches for 15 yards. Now he gets a great matchup against a Falcons defense that's been burned by lesser talents at tight end, Pat Freirmuth in Week 1 and Darren Waller in Week 2. Tight ends have caught 12 of 13 targets when facing the Falcons, for 114 yards. Jonnu Smith might get a catch or two, but it's Kraft who should erupt.
Michael Penix will be in at quarterback for the Falcons, who have been averaging 8 points a game with QB's Cooper Rush and Jack Strand playing. They've averaged only 262 yards per game, with many experts calling them the worst team in football. The only offensive highlight for the Falcons is their running game averaging 138 yards per game. Defensively, the Packers are No. 2 in the league, allowing 2.9 yards per rush. I think Penix will be better than what they've been offering, and I think the defense of the Falcons will slow the Packers down. They are No. 1 in the NFL, allowing only 63 yards rushing per game. They've stayed under in both their games so far. Under is the play.
This number continues to dip on the injury news coming out Wednesday afternoon and maybe the most significant news is Tua being healthy along with Michael Penix. That gives the Falcons a backup option if injury occurs and should invigorate their offense significantly. The Packers are banged up, aren't great on defense and get a desperate Atlanta team whose season is far from over if they win this game. This could end up closing closer to three the way things are moving so we will happily gobble up the last of the 5.5's remaining.
We're double dipping on London here, as we've also got his over with receiving yards. I'm perfectly fine with both: the Packers defense hasn't been scary this year at all and while the Falcons haven't been in the red zone once this year, they get a massive upgrade at quarterback in Michael Penix. That should bode well for a dangerous red-zone threat in London.
Atlanta not only is last in the NFL in scoring, it hasn't been in the red zone yet! Will Michael Penix Jr. solve all those problems? Perhaps some and surely they can get to 17 points on Thursday? Even if it's a backdoor. Atlanta has averaged 23.4 PPG with Penix as the starter since 2024. Our model has the Dirty Birds with 19 points. Weather won't be an issue.
The Falcons have been a disaster this season, almost entirely a result of the quarterback situation. In terms of fantasy production, I'm not sure anyone's been worse than Drake London, who was taken as a second-round pick and has been non-existent with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand under center. It'll take a leap of faith for backers here, but it's important to remember with Michael Penix under center, London's target share skyrockets. Penix might not be an elite QB but he's fighting for his job and his future and he's a massive upgrade. London should eat Thursday night.
Do we think Michael Penix Jr. is the savior who will revitalize a Falcons offense that is ranked 29th in yards/play, 28th in passing, 24th in rushing and dead last in scoring at 8.0 points per game and dead last in DOVA? The Packers haven't looked great in their two games so far, but know what has been great? Their defense. 2nd in yards per play, 2nd in rush yards per play, and 5th in passing. The offense? Not as bad as the Falcons, but not great in two games vs. the Vikings and Jets. 28th in DVOA, 32nd in rush offense. They also have major issues on the OL with bodies, which has been a factor in Jordan Love being 26th in EPA/play.
Michael Penix is coming back into the Falcons lineup, and that's great news for Drake London. While he's caught passes from six QBs in his career, he has the highest yards per attempt with Penix, who has also performed better than any other QB throwing to London. The Packers have questions in the secondary, and it's possible London has a similar performance to Justin Jefferson in Week 1, who torched Green Bay for 92 yards and two TDs. Now that QB isn't expected to be an issue, London's line should be closer to the 74-78 yard range he averaged per game over the last two seasons.
FanDuel. I believe the Christian Watson breakout is upon us. The Packers receiver has 19 targets through two games, and is running a much more diversified route tree. No longer just a vertical threat, Watson’s average depth of target of 12.6 yards is almost five yards less than his career year last season. Ten of his nineteen targets have traveled less than ten air yards (he did not have a game with more than two such targets last season). The Falcons are looking like they will be without their best cornerback, AJ Terrell, due to injury and the Packers run game has been miserable. I like Jordan Love to have to air it out in a matchup that schematically favors Watson over Matthew Golden.
Over the first two weeks of the season Christian Watson has 19 targets, a nearly 30% target share and a 33% air yard share. With Jayden Reed out those numbers may climb even more. The Packers Offensive Line is a big problem thanks to a number of injuries, but the Falcons have some defensive injuries as well to balance things out (most notably to AJ Terrell and Samson Ebukam who I don't think will play on a short week). Look for the Packers to move the ball through the air (with Watson, Golden and Kraft) due to their non-existent run game and a preference to attack the Falcons secondary rather than their Front 7. Play this up to 67.5.
Kyle Pitts has been completely wiped off the scoreboard for the first two weeks of the season but that can largely be attributed to Cooper Rush who has been a complete disaster at QB, ranking dead last in EPA at QB through two weeks. Michael Penix has been announced as the starter and even at his absolute worst, was significantly more effective than Rush. The Falcons have a condensed target distribution and were getting a sizable discount here on Pitts receiving line.
The Falcons have had the worst QB play in the league this season led mainly by Cooper Rush, and Kevin Stefanski finally had enough in the second half of Sunday's blowout loss. Michael Penix Jr. practiced in full last week and appears ready to return for this matchup, while Tua Tagovailoa may also be available. So I'm going to take a calculated risk and back Atlanta while I can get +7. The Packers had just 199 yards of offense against the Jets while going 1 of 9 on third down, and lost several players on offense in the close win. Even Jordan Love appeared to be favoring his hand. Given the health on that side of the ball, I can't see this underperforming team covering.
