Josh Allen is going to get his. ...

The Lions can’t stop anyone from throwing the ball. But the Cardinals can’t stop Jared Goff, either, and we’ll certainly lean on Goff and his weapons. Detroit has scored at least 31 every week, Arizona has allowed at least 31 three straight weeks.

Seahawks RB Emanuel Wilson didn’t have a single reception in his first three games. When in Week, he had three receptions for 39 yards. The air-tight 49ers defense ranks No. 9 vs. the run and No. 8 the pass, but in an interesting twist, allow the most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Wilson may not find a lot of running room, but should get opportunities in the pass game.

The last three weeks, Aaron Jones is averaging 20 carries per game. The last two games, he’s added 4-5 receptions. Jones has totaled 105, 92 and 128 yards in the last three. The Saints’ defense is missing some key tacklers and already allows 5.1 yards per carry and ranked dead-last in rush yards allowed going into Week 5. The Vikings will find a way to get Jones the ball, especially with Justin Jefferson out.

I watched enough of last week’s game in London to have any faith in Daniel Jones or a Colts defense that was carved up by a Commanders third-stringer without his top option (see my Giants-Commanders pick for what I think of Washington). Indy’s defense ranks 26th vs. the run and 28th vs. the pass. Pittsburgh’s defense has been prone to lapses. The Steelers had a long layoff to regroup since losing last Thursday to the Browns. The turnover-prone Colts should give additional opportunities to the Steelers, who rank second in takeaways.

Jayden Daniels is trending toward returning for the Commanders. But the offense played its best week with Marcus Mariota under center. The Giants were defense-first before pouring 36 on the Cardinals in Week 4. They’re still run-first, which limits touches to Daniels. I don’t think either team pulls away, making the spread, and this number in particular, valuable.

This is a lot of points to lay for a Ravens team that's given up at least 23 points in every game this season. But it's about matchups, and Baltimore has the good ones. Tennessee can't stop the run, and its offense ranks 29th in rushing and 30th in passing. Baltimore has put up 34 and 41 points in its wins.

The Bengals are getting to QBs and dropoff throws to RBs are working against it. They’re allowing 47 receiving yards per game to backs, the most in the league. The Jaguars can go this route as well with Bhayshul Tuten, who is 5-for-5 on targets with games of 17 and 22 yards.

We're fading the public on this one. Houston's defense was trounced by Josh Allen, but it's not the only one. It also held the Bengals and Colts to 20 and 19 points. The offense hasn't held up its end at all, but can here vs. a 30th-ranked Cowboys run defense. Getting Nico Collins greatly helps CJ Stroud.

It’s desperation time for the 0-3 Texans. The offense hasn’t been good the last two weeks, but QB C.J. Stroud should have opportunities to add a new wrinkle with his legs. The Cowboys rank dead-last in the NFL in rushes and rush yards allowed to opposing QBs. Stroud has taken off 2-3 times in each game already, gaining 10, 29 and 15 yards. He certainly shouldn’t finish lower than the norm here.

Kudos to Marcus Mariota in his play vs. perhaps the NFL's premier defense last week. The Colts' defense ranks dead-last in the NFL. But now there's game film of Mariota, and all teams know what to do. No Terry McLaurin will be a problem for Mariota, and the Commanders' 31st-ranked pass defense could offer opportunities for Daniel Jones. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts should have their way up front against an overachieving-but-susceptible Commanders front.

I just can’t quit the Eagles, 0-2 ATS so far. But now they’re facing Case Keenum and a Bears defense that’s bottom-10 vs. both the run and the pass so far. Chicago’s run game has been effective because Caleb Williams was a passing threat. That won’t be the case here, so the Eagles can exert some muscle inside. Philly’s playcalling has been lacking, making games closer than they should be. But they can get Saquon Barkley going here, making Jalen Hurts more dangerous.

So far, so good for the Niners, who have won their first two games by 20 and 22 points. Arizona shocked an issue-filled Chargers team before getting stomped 31-7 by the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense is better than San Fran’s, but the Niners’ offense is better. Arizona was on the bottom of a lot of preseason power rankings for a reason. Four of the last five Cardinals losses with Jacoby Brissett have been by 17 points or more.

Browns’ No. 2 RB Raheim Sanders has just three rushes on the season, for five yards. But No. 1 RB Quinshon Judkins isn’t lighting the world on fire (2.3 yards per carry), and he didn’t practice until Friday of this week. Cleveland wants to establish the run vs. the Panthers, who through two weeks are allowing 224 rushing yards per game, the most in the NFL. The second-year Sanders should get more carries, and this is a low number.

Detroit has scored 31 points in both of its games so far. The defense hasn’t been very good, but Geno Smith’s Jets are averaging 20 ppg against two struggling defenses (Titans, Packers). New York’s defense has allowed the NFL’s fewest yards, but again, vs. two offenses that are having issues. The Lions’ defense has secondary holes, but Smith is good for a big mistake on the road.