Josh Jacobs has prime matchup with Panthers...

A good bounce back spot for the Chiefs...

The Dallas defense wasn't that bad in the loss to Green Bay on Sunday night, holding the Packers to 318 yards, over 100 of which were on the first drive of the game. It was actually the offense that struggled each of the last two games, with only 29 total points and an average of 335 total yards. They face an Eagles offense that is basically left for dead. Jalen Hurts is done. Saquon Barkley is questionable. DaVonta Smith was back last week, but he's out this week. The Eagles are last in yards per play (4.4), 31st in pass yards per play and time of possession, 31st in offensive success rate, and lead the world in 3-and-outs. 

Detroit is allowing 321.4 passing yards per game, nearly 40 yards above Jordan Love's prop. Detroit's deep-pass defense has been especially vulnerable. The Lions rank 31st in deep passing yards allowed (80.6 per game) and last in EPA allowed per deep pass. Love leads the NFL in deep passing attempts. He's attempted 32 passes traveling at least 20 air yards and leads the league with 988 yards on throws traveling at least 10 air yards. The expected passing volume is favorable. Detroit has faced 42.6 QB attempts per game. Love has thrown at least 41 passes in three of his six games, and his two highest-volume games produced 387 and 312 passing yards.

I am still not buying the Denver Broncos right now.  They have yet to play a good full game this season, with massive struggles on offense. The offense is 31st in total yards, 26th in scoring, 25th in EPA per play and 32nd in passing. The four wins were a 4th-quarter comeback vs. Jacksonville, the benefit of a PI call vs. Rams, a win over the hapless Chargers, and Sam Darnold gifting them points in OT last week. They won with TWO first downs in the 2nd half and had 167 total yards of total offense in the game..

The Atlanta Falcons may have the fourth-best rush defense in the NFL, but their pass defense is 28th, allowing 252.0 yards per game. Through six games, every QB has gone over his completions prop vs. the Falcons, with an average of 26.5 per game. Last week, Caleb Williams had 18 completions at halftime. Teams now know how to beat the Falcons defense - throw on them. While Brock Purdy has only gone over 20.5 in three of his six games, he hasn't faced a defense that is this good against the run and this poor against the pass.

The 49ers have been the best team in football this year in many things, but not in covering the running back in routes. San Francisco has allowed the second-most receiving yards to RBs and now face one of the best in the game. Bijan Robinson went for 90 yards and a TD in week 1 and got 32 yards last week vs. Baltimore. He also hit this in three of his last four games last season and had 53 vs. SF when they met last year.

Bryce Young has 280+ passing yards in all five games this season, leading the NFL in yards per game at 309.8. Meanwhile, as good as the Bucs' rush defense is (2nd), the pass defense is the opposite (19th), allowing 224.0 yards per game. We've seen Aaron Rodgers (253), Dak Prescott (316), Deshaun Watson (238), and Joe Burrow (254) all hit the overs vs. the Buccaneers this season. Baker Mayfield is back, which in theory, should allow the Bucs to score too, making this a higher-scoring game than without him.

Yes, the Houston Texans have won two in a row and look more like last year's team than they did the first four weeks of the season. But one was vs. the Titans and the other a squeaker over the Jags. A good win, no doubt, but also one where they allowed 31 points. No one seems to believe in the Giants, which may turn out to be right in the end, but this is too many points from a Texans team that still is giving up 23.8 points per game (24th) in a 6-game sample size. The Giants are 14th in the league in passing, regardless of the QB, while the Texans are 27th against the pass.

Malik Nabers has gone for 113, 121, and 165 yards over his last three games on a combined 42 targets. J.J. McCarthy seemed to get on the same page with Nabers right away, as they connected on 4 passes for 95 yards, just in the 11 minutes McCarthy played. The Texans defense has been a disappointment this season compared to last year — allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season (195.5), including 301 yards to Dallas receivers in Week 4. The pass defense is 27th in the league, allowing 246 per game.

Outside of the game vs. a Lions team that has the worst defense in football, the Jets' games have combined for 33, 37, 35, 29, and 45. The Jets are averaging 18.7 PPG, 27th in the league, while Miami is 31st at 14.0. Miami has scored more than 13 points once all season, in its last game with Cincy, with 14 of the 24 points coming after the game was decided. Both teams are bottom 10 in total yards and passing yards. Meanwhile, neither defense is bad -- both in the top half of the standings in total yards (Jets 11th, Miami 16th) and pass defense (Jets 4th, Miami 16th).

Even with Rico Dowdle returning last week, Jaylen Warren still had a 75% snap share and outrushed Dowdle 14-to-7 vs. a tough Buccaneers' rush defense. Now Warren gets the Saints, who have allowed the third-most rushing yards at 138.8 per game and have allowed Jahymr Gibbs (156), Derrick Henry (68), Bijan Robinson (145), and Aaron Jones (113) to all exceed this line.

The Bears have played six games this season, three with Caleb Williams and three without. In the three games with Williams, the Bears are averaging 31.0 points and 405.7 yards per game, compared to 19 PPG and 371.0 yards without. And that includes one game against Minnesota, where the Vikings shutdown everything, holding Chicago to 3 points and 297 yards. Against the Falcons in Week 5, Williams completed 30 of 36 passes overall, including a perfect 24-for-24 for 248 yards in a clean pocket. I still have questions about the Patriots ability to beat anyone good not named Buffalo. They did outlast Bills in a shootout, but the other wins this year are vs. the Jets, Raiders,and a sloppy win vs. the Steelers.

The Chargers have yet to top 23 points in any game this season and are last in EPA per play, 29th in scoring (16.8 PPG), and bottom 5 in every single advanced metric. Four of the five games have finished at exactly 40 points. The OL is missing starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt and multuple interior lineman. The Chiefs' defense has been excellent this seaosn, 9th in Defensive EPA per play, seventh against the rush and seventh in scoring. The one positive for the Chargers has been their defense, 10th in yards and sixth vs. the pass.

The Bills pass defense is 31st in the NFL, allowing 280.4 yards per game and now face Kirk Cousins, who is eighth in the NFL in passing. Cousins has hit 243 yards in each of his last four games as the Raiders continue to struggle running the ball. The Bills have allowed CJ Stroud, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, and Matt Stafford to all through for 265+, while Justin Herbert had his best game of the season with 226 yards vs. the Bills.