Amon-Ra St. Brown has prime matchup...

Jacoby Brissett to throw all over bad Lions defense...

The Broncos and Chargers have not woken up until halftime...

Miami's defense has looked good the last two weeks against the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings, showing some signs of hope. The same cannot be said on the offensive side, which is averaging 11.5 PPG this season, last in the NFL and 267.5 yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Miami is last in offensive DVOA by a large margin.

The Minnesota Vikings' 4-0 start has been all defense, leading the NFL in scoring (12.8 PPG allowed), 5th in yards (289.3), and 7th in both rushing defense and passing defense. At the same time, the offense has been awful, ranked 31st in yards and 32nd in passing. They have scored just seven touchdowns through four games. The Saints have had their own offensive issues. New Orleans is 29th in the NFL in first half scoring, averaging 6.5 points and have trailed at half of all four games. They are fourth in passing, but only 27th in rushing, not sustaining drives. Brian Flores' defense has been effective generating pressure this season and facing a Saints OL that allowed Tyler Shough to get his 12 times Monday night.

With Jordan Mason out, Aaron Jones is getting over 70% of the snap share at RB, hitting 80%+ in two of the last three games. Now he goes up against a New Orleans Saints defense that is 30th in the league against the running, giving up 156 rush yards to Jahmyr Gibbs, 110 combined to Raiders RBs, and over 200 combined to Brian and Bijan Robinson last Monday night.

Garrett Wilson has a 50% target share against man coverage, which is tied for the highest in the NFL with Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Browns, this week's opponent, play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (also 50%). Wilson only had 3 catches for 27 yards last week vs. the Bears, but it was a game in which the Jets somehow only had 32 total plays. In the previous 3 games, he had 79, 57, and 107 on 21 catches and 27 targets.

It doesn't seem to matter who the QB is in Chicago as the Bears still lead the NFL in total yards (429.0), rushing (196.3), and are 9th in scoring. But maybe most importantly, lead the NFL in time of possession at 36:36. It's hard to score on Chicago if you don't have the ball. Ever since the Bears defense gave up 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers in Week 1, Chicago's defense has allowed 28 total points (9.2 a game) and under 250 total yards in every game. They are now 3rd in the NFL in total defense and 3rd vs the pass. What has Green Bay done but beat a horrible Tampa Bay team without its starting QB?

If you took the under on the opposing RB this season vs. the Jaguars defense, you are 4-0. Quinshon Judkins, J.K. Dobbins, TreVeyon Henderson, and Chase Brown averaged 25.5 rush yards vs. Jacksonville. The Jags have the second-best rush defense this season, allowing only 74.3 yards per game, and top rush defense dating back to last year. Will Shipley is making his first start for the injured Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby, behind an OL that just lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens.

During the first three weeks of the season, the Dallas Cowboys gave up 54 rushing yards to Jaxson Dart, 69 yards in one half to Jayden Daniels, and 50 yards to Lamar Jackson. Last week, they faced C.J. Stroud, not known as a running QB, but he averaged 6.0 yards on his two scrambles. The Bucs are starting rookie Jalon Daniels again this week. Daniels ran for 55 yards on 8 carries vs. Green Bay last week. Only a one-game sample size, but he also averaged 105 attempts a year in his two seasons as starter at Kansas, so he is a dual-threat QB. Dallas has allowed the most rushing yards to QBs this season and now face a rookie who likes to run.

The Michael Penix-Drake London connection is back and we are here for it. In 13 games in which Penix started, London averages 7.0 receptions and 104.3 yards per game on 11 targets per game. He had 9-194 on 10 targets last week at Green Bay. In the 19 games he has played without Penix, it's 5.2 receptions, 63.6 yards per game on 8 targets a game.

We are only 3 games in but the Broncos have already established a pattern of sleeping through the first half and waking up later. They didnt wake up at all vs. KC but scored 14 points in the 4th quarter of both of their wins, and that was after scoring 16 in the 3rd vs. LA, helped by a Pick 6. If they fall asleep again on the road in Santa Clara, it's game over. San Francisco has played better an anyone, scoring a TD on 13 of 27 drives this season (48.1%), the highest rate through three games since 2000. They are only team that can claim they are top 5 in scoring offense and defense and will take care of the inconsistent Broncos.

Aaron Glenn’s Jets defense is second in total yards (258.3), third against the pass (171.0), and seventh against the run (87.3). Before facing the Lions juggernaut, Jets held both the Packers and Titans to under 200 yards and 10 and 20 points. Chicago's offense is likely somewhere in between, and one Aaron Glenn was around when he was with Ben Johnson in Detroit. After 59 points and 552 yards at 7.9 per play, Bears have combined for 30 points, averaged 336 yards per game and 4.8 per play They've proven they are QB proof with Case Keenum, but they won't be as explosive and the running game only gained 3.7 yards per rush on Monday Night with 50% of the yards on last drive.

If you took the under on the opposing RB vs. the Jaguars, you are 3-0 this season. We have an will continue to do that with Chase Brown. The Jags are currently 8th against the run (91.3), but first if you go back to the beginning of last year (86.5 per game). The yards per attempt is actually lower at 3.6 than last year's 3.9 Brown has gone for 56, 80, and 61 this year, so he has missed 66.5 in two of the three game and rushed for 47 yards in this matcjup last year on 16 rushes.

The Eagles have shown me nothing through 2 weeks on offense with 318 and 341 yards against the Commanders and Titans. And inside those numbers, 79 yards and 65 yards were their last drives of of each game, when they needed to score. The first 3.5 quarters were awful. Remove those two drives, and the Eagles produced 34 points on 17 possessions, while losing 12.2 expected points on their 106 rushes/dropbacks. As for those record setting Bears, well the drop off from 59 points to 3 points was stark. Less than 300 yards.. 4.2 yards per play, a far cry from 7.7 in Week 1. Chicago’s running game produced −9.3 EPA. Caleb Williams status up in the air and shouldn't be scared of Tyson Bagent.