Titans and Eagles have not shown any offense...

Broncos-Chiefs matchups low scoring last 3 years...

Yes, the Packers made the postseason last year and the Vikings didn't. But entering Wild Card weekend, if you asked me which team I'd rather have, it would've been the Vikings, who ended the year with 5 straight wins, while the Packers limped in with four straight losses and then promptly lost to the Bears in the WC round. Now fast-forward to 2026 and I am not sure anything has changed other than the Vikings getting Kyler Murray and the Packers losing Josh Jacobs for the beginning of the year. It's Week 1 and I think the Vikings are the better team and are in better shape entering the opening contest.

I just don't see these two offenses putting up points, even with two new regimes. The Miami Dolphins are returning only 11.2% of their total wide receiver receiving yards from the 2025 season. Looking back at the combined 2024 and 2025 totals, that number drops even further to a miniscule 9.6%. Raiders are rolling with Cousins to start, but Jeanty is hurting and Brock Bowers is out. This is a Raiders team that was last in the NFL at 14.2 points per game last year. Last in total yards (245.2), last in rushing (77.5), 28th in passing (167.7).

The Panthers played zone defense on 69.5% of coverage snaps (third most in the NFL), and the Panthers led the league in Cover 3 (three-deep zone). The answer to beating that is hitting the TE in zone defense and while Rome Oduze and Luther Burden III will play, both are banged up.

Saints QB Tyler Shough hit over 240 passing yards in his last four and six of his last seven games last season and should be operating in a negative game script as 7-point dogs. The Lions defense was 20th against the pass last year and still has some holes that Shough should find.

The Jaguars had the top rush defense in the NFL last year, holding teams to 85.6 yards per game. I faded RBs on a weekly basis against them and with the terrible QB situation in Cleveland, I expect them to stack the box against Judkins and make Watson beat them. Not to mention the Browns rushed for 97 yards a game last year, 27th in the NFL. Judkins only hit this mark twice over the last eight games last season, against much worse rush defenses and this will be a negative game script in the second half.

The 49ers and Rams are flying halfway around the world to play the first game in Australia. In the first game played in each of the previous six international cities, five of them did not go over 48.5. Three didn't crack 40. While the Niners defense has some question marks, the Rams have a returning top 10 defense that added DPOY Myles Garrett, as well as Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson in the secondary. In Week 1 last year, only 3 of the 16 games went over 48.5 and we saw how Pats-Seahawks was played on Wednesday. Week 1 has turned into an extended preseason for totals.

The Patriots and Seahawks finished with two of top four scoring defenses in the league last season, with Seattle at the top and Patriots fourth, allowing 18.8 points per game. The champs also finished as No. 1 in DVOA defensive rankings per FTN. While the Patriots were second in the NFL in scoring last year (28.8 PPG), they did not face a single defense that finished in the top 12 of points allowed. In the postseason, all four defenses they faced (Broncos, Texans, Seahawks, Chargers) were top-10 defenses, and the Patriots were held to 16.8 PPG and 248.0 total yards per game. The last 8 NFL Kickoff games have averaged a total of 41.3 points, with only three of the 16 teams reaching 30+ points.