This was an admittedly tough call. Why? Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, Buffalo’s defense stinks, Sean McDermott’s job is likely on the line and Jacksonville has been running hot. Digging a bit deeper, while these Jaguars are significantly improved from prior seasons, some opponent luck has been part of their run (outside of the win over the Broncos). The Bills have been forced to beat and compete against top quarterbacks one week after the next, and while they have slipped some, there’s an experience level this team and coaching staff has that cannot be overlooked. The momentum toward Jacksonville shifted this line 3 full points. Buffalo’s running game and Josh Allen still need to get stopped. What worries most is Cam Little.

Bet365 at 103.5 -110. James Cook averaged 119 scrimmage yards per across his 16 full games played this season, clearing this line in 11/16 games. With Ty Johnson (27 yards per game) out, I do expect Cook to see more receiving work in this one. It’s a strength on strength matchup, as the Jaguars run defense is stout, but Cook has cleared this line in six of eight against the top 12 in run defense DVOA. I’d bet this up to over 109.5.

Buffalo have more playoff experience in this one while also having one of the best players in the league in Josh Allen. The Jaguars have a balanced offensive attack and have been able to stop the run which will be a big test against James Cook. However, Jacksonville has more weapons on offense and while it’s tough to go against Josh Allen, the Jaguars offense has averaged over 32 points over their last three and holding their opponents to 15 points at home.

Buffalo's Ty Johnson, an excellent receiving back, was seen in a boot entering the stadium, and the Bills have elevated Frank Gore Jr. from the practice squad. If Johnson is inactive, it should mean more receiving work for James Cook. The Jaguars are extremely tough to run on, so I bet on the Bills to get Cook involved in the passing game.

I’m playing the Under on the biggest playoff total in the Wild Card round. Despite nearly 70% of the public bets going to the Over, this total is moving down to 50.5 on some books. The Jags should look to exploit Buffalo’s weak rush defense, and the Bills will want to get their rushing yards leader James Cook rolling, which will keep the clock running. Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile’s defense runs a heavy rate of zone, stops the run, and forces takeaways. Josh Allen might play his classic “hero ball”, but Jacksonville allowed the 5th least explosive plays this season. Even if we get a 27-24 score we still cash this Under. Grab anything above 51.

FanDuel. While the midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers has boosted the passing attack for the Jaguars, this receiving yards line reads as too high. Meyers is under this yardage amount in six of nine games as a Jaguar, including each of the least three. The recent stretch is pertinent, as Parker Washington has emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s go-to pass catcher. Washington’s ascendence has Meyers lining up wide for most of his routes (72% of pass snaps over the last three games, per PFF). The Bills only allow 81 receiving yards per game to outside receivers (second lowest per game), at 12.5 yards per route run (seventh lowest, data per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 48.5.

Never mind that the Bills haven't won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game at Miami, and Josh Allen 0-4 away in the postseason (three of those losses at KC). It wasn't quite the same Buffalo this season because of defensive deficiencies, especially vs. the run. How much the Jags take advantage remains to be seen but the Bills might not be at levels they've been the past couple of seasons. Meanwhile, the Jags are as hot, winning and covering eight straight, with Trevor Lawrence reborn in the Liam Coen offense, and ballhawks in the secondary threatening to boomerang any passes in their vicinities. Note Lawrence has a wild card round win, too (three years ago vs. Chargers). Play Jags ML

The Bills have one of the worst group of receivers in the NFL, so Josh Allen needs to depend on his tight ends and backs to make plays in the passing game. I expect both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid to be factors against a Jaguars' defense that gives up the 10th most yards per game to tight ends. Jacksonville allowed 18 tight ends to go over this number during the regular season and Knox has eclipsed 19.5 yards eight times in his last 10 games. Another factor here is third-down back Ty Johnson might not play, so that could open up a couple more targets for the tight ends. I'll back Knox to get at least 20 yards on Sunday.

I like the Jaguars to at least be tied at halftime. They've averaged 18.3 points in the first half over their last three games, compared to Buffalo's 13.7. At home, Jacksonville is averaging 18 first-half points this season. Look for another strong first half by the Jags before Josh Allen rallies Buffalo.

The Jaguars have a good defense, but where they are weaker is against the tight end position. The Jaguars give up the 8th most touchdowns to the tight end position and a 5.7% touchdown rate (18th). Similar to how Josh Allen knew to target his tight ends against the Bengals (both Kincaid and Dawson Knox had touchdowns in that game), I think he'll know where to go in the redzone against the Jaguars, too. We're getting a great ATD price for Allen's true top receiving option.

I almost wrote up Trevor Lawrence ATD, as Lawrence has nine rushing touchdowns this season. I may still sprinkle on that. But I like Lawrence's rushing line. We typically see quarterbacks who do run, tend to take off and run more in the must-win playoffs. Lawrence has been effective scrambling and rushing this season, rushing for 359 yards and nine touchdowns. The Bills' defense is 29th in rushing yards given up to quarterbacks. So I'm going to lean into Lawrence's tendency to run more this season, the quarterback's tendency to run more in the playoffs, and the matchup for this bet.

The red-hot Jags have become such a trendy wildcard weekend play that now one major book has officially flipped the spread and we'll bite on Buffalo with this move. Although the Bills haven't shown the dominance that made them the pre-season Super Bowl favorite, they still fell just one win short of their over/win total (12.5) and they're far from the only flawed playoff team. With Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson out of the way, Josh Allen and friends need to take advantage and this is a winnable matchup.

The Jags are better in most respects. They are hotter, having swept eight in a row outright. And — dare we say it? — the quarterback gap is marginal. No doubt the Bills’ Allen has shined in January. Still, he has lost more (six) than won (five) ATS. Trevor Lawrence is on a tear, with 15 TD tosses against one pick in the past six games. Factor in the Bills’ inefficiency against the run — a dreadful 5.1 yards per carry allowance — and Jax should score more than enough to offset whatever magic Allen conjures up. As a bonus, PK Cam Little, with the two longest field goals ever, can hit from the parking lot.

Jacksonville has been a fun team to watch this season. What's given their fans hope this season is an offense that can put points on the board rather quickly, and a defense that is stifling vs the run. The Bills have a great QB in Josh Allen and RB in Dalvin Cook, but there is still something missing with this team this season. Welp, look for Jacksonville to show the world what that 'something' is.

Looking at these two teams on the surface, Bills vs Jaguars seems to scream points - thus, I want to go the other direction. I was able to play UNDER 52 here and I show that is still readily available. It is very possible that this number will go even higher if you wait until Sunday as I believe the public majority will have that same initial perception I refer to and play the OVER accordingly. The running game should be featured heavily in this contest - for both teams. Buffalo's defense is vulnerable against the run and Buffalo's offense is excellent utilizing the run. Rushing the football takes time off the clock. The running game plus public perception has me staying UNDER the total.

The weather is going to be perfect in Jacksonville at 67° and 10 mph winds with only an 8% chance of rain. Jacksonville went over the total in 10 out of their 17 games, and they should pick a fight with the Bills. This is one I'm looking to bet over 60. They met last season, and Buffalo won 47-10. Buffalo has the No. 1 rushing game in the NFL at 159 yards per game, and Jacksonville is No. 1 against the run, allowing 85.6 yards per game. Buffalo scores 28.3 points a game and Jacksonville scores 27.9 points a game. Over is the play.

At this stage of the season my betting volume tends to dwindle, however this is a prop I love. Dalton Kinkaid looked very healthy in Week 18 and I expect his snap count and route participation to rise in what is an obvious must win game. When Kinkaid has been on the field this season, he’s been very good and should continue to function as Josh Allen’s primary target in a game with a 51 point total that projects to be high scoring. I’d play this up to 37.5.

Winners of 9 of their last 10 games, I have a hard time picking against Jacksonville at home. Buffalo’s passing game is devoid of weapons and the Jaguars boast the NFL’s top rush defense to slow Josh Allen and James Cook. While Allen and the Bills are 5-0 in the Wild Card Round since 2020, all five of those games have been at home. Trevor Lawrence has played at an MVP level since November and it will continue this weekend. The Jaguars win on a walkoff Cam Little field goal from 50+ yards. If this result plays out as I anticipate, Sean McDermott won’t be back to coach Buffalo next season. Jaguars 27, Bills 24.

Josh Allen gets an AFC field without the Chiefs or Ravens, but I don't see him making it past Jacksonville. That's because the Jaguars look like the best team in the AFC. Their run game should have success against a Bills defense that's allowed 189+ rushing yards six times, and Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football with a 15:1 TD:INT ratio in his last six games. The Bills need an effective rushing attack to have success but the Jaguars have one of the better run defenses in football, ranking first in yards allowed and fifth in yards per rush. Allen needs to be Superman just for the Bills to have a shot, but he's managing a foot injury. Jags win here.

Trevor Lawrence just finished the best season of his career, which happens to coincide with him having the best rushing season of his career as well (359 yards, nine rushing scores, the latter nearly double his previous career high). Lawrence had the same number of rushing attempts inside the five (nine) as Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley. He trailed only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in red-zone rushing attempts. He's a smart, physical and elusive runner near the goal line. And this price is really good in a home playoff game as a slight dog to the Bills, who give up plenty of yards on the ground. We'll sprinkle on two rushing scores as well.

Well we hit on the "Average" QB Parlay on The Early Edge, in large part due to Trevor Lawrence, so we may as well lean into the bit and to the plus money. In a game with a total north of 50 and against a defense that may have trouble stopping the Jags, I think this price is off. Yes, the path to beating the Bills is through the rush attack, but the Jags should be able to move the ball by air and ground. Trevor and company should find themselves in plus terriorty more often than not and Liam Coen's trust in Trevor's arm is at an all time high.