Week 1 is notoriously tough to predict, and perhaps no game is a stronger paradigm of that this one. Are the raised hopes for the Bears under Ben Johnson outsized? Perhaps. Will JJ McCarthy silence doubters immediately making his first start in what is effectively his redshirt rookie season? He might. The lean here is based on Chicago’s home-field advantage and Minnesota’s personnel issues at wide receiver. This will likely be a tale of two halves with the Vikings starting hot and the Bears defense rallying to provide Caleb Williams with additional opportunities. When these teams meet again on Nov. 16, I’ll likely be on the other side.

DraftKings. With Roschon Johnson declared out, and rookie Kyle Monanagi (who dealt with his own injuries during camp) behind him, I’m trusting D’Andre Swift to see the bulk of the running back work tonight. Bears Head Coach Ben Johnson has been adamant about establishing the ground game.

I am high on Bears rookie TE Colston Loveland coming into this season, and definitely don’t mind a little 4-1 TD prop sprinkle in tonight’s home opener in Chicago. Look for Ben Johnson to draw up something for Loveland when the Bears are in the red zone.

Bears first-round pick TE Colston Loveland could be an effective weapon right out of the gate. Chicago’s new HC Ben Johnson had tremendous success with TE Sam Laporta in his time with the Lions, and used his tight ends & linemen in very creative schemes. Look for Loveland to make his mark in Week 1 and emerge as the TE1 in Chicago.

Caleb Williams was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL last season, and was forced to scramble backwards all too often. The Bears will open the year against a vaunted Vikings pass rush that may have Williams on the run right away. Chicago added LG Joe Thuney, RG Jonah Jackson, and drafted TE Colston Loveland to pair with Cole Kmet, which should bolster up this O-line. I expect this unit to improve greatly in 2025, but they will have their hands full in Week 1 against blitz-happy Minnesota DC Brian Flores. Williams had 4+ carries in 14/19 games last season, and 10 carries in 2 games against the Vikings. We get the benefit of QB sneaks and kneel downs on this prop as well.

Acquired from Carolina and thrust into the line-up for Week 1, it will be interested to see how the former Viking is deployed vs the Bears. I expect Thielen to get a touch or two but not serve as a high volume receiving threat behind Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. At this point in his career Adam has become a possession guy know for precise route running. Against a Dennis Allen defense he may have room to operate underneath but I don't see explosives being in his arsenal so under his longest reception is the angle to take tonight.

Many are expecting a second-year breakout from wideout Rome Odunze, and that could very well happen. But I bet D.J. Moore to start strong in Ben Johnson's offense. He'll get a lot of slot opportunities, which Amon-Ra St. Brown capitalized on when he played for Johnson. And in two games against Brian Flores' blitzing scheme last season, Moore caught 15 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown. Flores plays two deep safeties at one of the league's highest rates, a coverage that limits longer throws. Look for Moore to benefit from short passes and find room to run after the catch.

The one thing Caleb Williams did well last year was avoid picks so we'll throw a half unit down here as he certainly is much better coached in 2025 by Ben Johnson compared to whatever three blind mice from the 2024 staff. And the Vikings' premier interceptor, Harrison Smith, is out. His 37 picks are tops among all active NFL players. Williams didn't throw an INT in either Minnesota game last year.

I feel obligated to fade a rookie QB making his NFL debut as a road favorite, especially against a division rival. JJ McCarthy will begin the year without WR2 Jordan Addison (serving a 3-game suspension) and with his best offensive linemen LT Christian Darrisaw’s status in question tonight (who suffered a torn ACL & MCL last season). In a raucous environment at Soldier Field against an underrated Chicago defense, I see McCarthy struggling. I expect Bears new HC Ben Johnson to help sophomore QB Caleb Williams take a big step forward this year. Johnson is familiar with Vikings DC Brian Flores’ exotic blitzing schemes, and can attack a Minnesota secondary that is without their captain FS Harrison Smith. Bears win their home opener as dogs.

The Vikings brought in Jordan Mason this season to be the 1B running back to Aaron Jones. But signs point to Mason getting more of the between-the-tackle, short-yardage, and goal line opportunities. Jones struggled with those goal line opportunities last season, so I want to be early on this bet. Maybe I'm feeling good coming off two Anytime TD Scorer picks that hit yesterday (James Conner and George Kittle). But I love this price for Mason to find the end zone tonight.

The Bears have lost the last two to the Vikings and seven of the last eight meetings, but I bet against the Vikings this time because JJ McCarthy is essentially a rookie starting his first game on the road. He might have the best receivers, but those guys can do only so much in the three seconds McCarthy has to make a decision. It comes fast. Caleb Williams has a new head coach, Ben Johnson, who will have an offensive system set up perfectly for Williams to excel and be his best. McCarthy may end up being a good quarterback, but in his first shot as a starter on the road, I'm betting against him. Bears to win.

JJ McCarthy's first NFL game is in division and on the road and I think he's treated with kid gloves early by KOC. Add that the Vikings really leaned into OLine and running back upgrades in the offseason and I think this is a team that leans more on the run game and their defense. On the other side, you've got Caleb Williams who is unlikely to be able to utilize the full compliment of the Ben Johnson system in Week 1. Maybe in the second half a trailing team opens things up, but in the first half I see two conservative offenses and plenty of stunted drives that result in punts or field goals.

Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman wears the green dot and does not come off the field. Ivan Pace Jr. might make more highlight-worthy stops, but Cashman is the quarterback of this defense. Cashman cleared this prop total in each of his last five games to end the 2024 season, including three games with 11-plus stops. Ben Johnson's Lions ran 65.9 plays per game last season (second-most). I expect the new-look Bears' offense to mount extended drives, increasing Cashman's opportunities.

I like this potential buy low/bounce back opportunity for TJ Hockenson, who is coming off a disappointing 2024 season after a career best 2023. Hockenson is fully healthy heading into the season and looks poised to function as the number 2 option for JJ McCarthy who will be missing Jordan Addison. The Bears surrendered the 5th most yards to opposing Tight Ends last season. With the amount of attention Justin Jefferson routinely commands, I expect McCarthy to lean on his safety valve.

Perhaps Kevin O'Connell really is a QB whisperer and JJ McCarthy will pick up where Sam Darnold left off last season for the Vikings. Yet we saw very little indication of much in the preseason, not necessarily significant except that we were looking for some hints regarding McCarthy, who only featured briefly in the August opener, attempting seven passes. His body of work is extremely sketchy as he readies for his first NFL start. We also suspect things start to get tough for Caleb Williams and new Bears HC Ben Johnson now facing an opportunistic Vikings stop unit that flustered Williams in the last meeting Dec. 16 at US Bank Stadium in a 30-12 Minnesota win. Play Vikings-Bears Under.

Minnesota's J.J. McCarthy might not be the typical QB making his debut, having been around last year rehabbing from a serious injury. Still, his unveiling in the regular season occurs on the road under the glare of Monday night's lights could be dicey. He will miss No. 2 WR Jordan Addison, suspended for the first three outings. New Bears coach Ben Johnson is an advocate of the ground game. Until he gains faith in second-year QB Caleb Williams, Johnson could curb passing plays, which would make an Under more likely.

I expect the Vikings to run the ball a bunch for many reasons: One, they want to, as evidenced by their offseason moves of improving the middle of the line. Two, they can as the Bears weren't a dominant run defense last season and only added veteran Grady Jarrett to their D-line. Three, this is McCarthy's very first NFL game, it's probably for the best to not put him in position to throw a ton. One more sneaky point: McCarthy can run, and if the Bears opt to play more man coverage as playcaller Dennis Allen is known to do, McCarthy will be able to take off with his legs when his receivers aren't open.

There's still a lot of unknown here with the Vikings QB JJ McCarthy. However, you do like that he spent a full season getting acclimated to the system and will have success over the course of the season. In this game, the Bears offense will be able to create mismatches at different spots of the personnel, and a defense that should be Top 10 to boot as well.

We get our first taste of J.J. McCarthy as Vikings QB and Ben Johnson as Bears HC, and when you throw in the historically successful primetime Under angle, this is a play I want to be on. We don't know what to expect from McCarthy, but we do know he'll be shorthanded at WR against a strong Bears secondary. The questionable Bears tackles have to contend with a strong Vikings pass rush as well. Both sides should line up for an Under here.

I expect great things from the Chicago Bears this season (over 8.5 wins at plus money), and this game could be a perfect start. The Vikings swept Chicago last season, scoring 30 points in each game. Ben Johnson and company will be fired up for his head coaching debut. J.J. McCarthy is a rookie making his first career start in a road game on MNF. Tough. We also have a non-playoff team getting points against a team that made the playoffs last season. This system wins nearly 58% from a huge sample size. Play the Bears.

The addition of Ben Johnson as head coach is going to be an immediate boost for Caleb Williams and the Bears offensively. J.J. McCarthy may be a solid QB, but I’m more than willing to fade him in his NFL debut on the road in primetime—especially with one of his top receivers, Jordan Addison, out and Justin Jefferson possibly less than 100%. I make the Bears -2 home favorites in this game. Play +2 (-112) if you have BetRivers, or +1.5 (-105) at FanDuel or other books.

To be clear, I was always going to bet an unhealthy amount on the Bears in their Ben Johnson opener at home on MNF. Have a bit of a rainy day fund, which has basically been a Bears down the drain fund (and Cubs WS fund). So why play now? Jordan Addison we know is out for the Vikes. Justin Jefferson seems to not be super-healthy all of a sudden. JJ McCarthy's first NFL start. I fully expect some Bears dude with a mullet to fall out of the stands whilst catching a PAT; that was epic -- Sept. 11, 1995 MNF vs. Packers (almost 30 years to the day, wow). Remember like yesterday; bro had Six Million Dollar Man bionic ankles.

Ben Johnson will have to make his coaching debut in primetime, and even with that being the case I love the Bears here. I was leaning Bears when they were favored early in the offseason, and now that I'm catching points at home with a team I think should be much better this year -- even better than the Vikings overall -- I have to jump on it. J.J. McCarthy will be making his NFL debut in this game, and it could be rough against an underrated defense on the road. Take the Bears to win outright or take the points, either way it's a strong play.