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Lamar Jackson went for 15 carries & 81 yards in the Wild Card round against the Steelers. Last season after Baltimore was eliminated from the playoffs, Jackson & the Ravens were criticized for abandoning their run-focused game plan. Jackson won’t make that mistake again. “Skinny Lamar” is in full effect. The Bills will need to stack the box against Derrick Henry, and I expect Jackson to beat them to the outside on read option plays. Jackson should look to put the team on his back, and clear this total easily.
I think the Bills are way more live to win this game than most, but I want to target the first half as I worry about Derrick Henry running downhill against an undersized defense in the second half. The Bills defensive splits at home are much better and they've got a relatively healthy defense going into this game versus the Week 4 matchup. I also like this Bills offense at home (and in general) and there's a possiblity this Ravens newfound defensive prowess has been a result of some layup matchups over the last two months. Give me the Bills 1st half behind their home field crowd.

Ravens ran 13 times with 6 OL vs Houston a few weeks back and 15 times last week. Why do I bring this up? Because they have become increasingly comfortable with Andrews in a Tush Push look with extra heavy personnel on the field. And Bills are light in the ass in their front 7 and I expect a sledgehammer approach here. They want to bully and flex on the Bills, keep Lamar healthy, and use Derrick Henry to push Andrews up the gut in short yardage spots. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get 3-5 carries in this game.

Let’s take Johnson over receptions and receiving yards. Rushing as well. 1) Ray Davis still in concussion protocol and likely will not play. Last week without Davis, Johnson played 33 snaps. 2) only three teams in the NFL were worse against running back receptions than Baltimore 3) in long down and distance situations (which Buffalo should face a few this week)James Cook has only played two snaps since week eight!!

B365 at -120. Despite a hit rate of 4/17 on this line in the regular season, Lamar Jackson ran the ball 15 times in the divisional round against Pittsburgh. This includes 10 designed rushes, four scrambles and a kneel down. With the weather conditions iffy for passing (at best), and Zay Flowers inactive once again, I see the Ravens dialing up Jackson’s number once again. When these two teams met in the regular season, Derrick Henry ran wild, and Jackson had 54 rush yards on 6 totes, in a game that got out of hand quickly. I expect the Bills to hone in on Henry in this one, which should open up some lanes for Jackson on RPOs.
Baltimore has a really good advantage in this game and it is their ability to play any type of game necessary to win. With that being the case, for this specific matchup it'll be more of a heavy personnel that'll give them the edge. I expect this to be a run game and defense type of matchup for Baltimore en route to a road cover.

Been waiting all week for this prop. I honestly think in a certain game script he could be their leading receiver. Ravens ILBs (including Roquan Smith) are horrible in coverage on screens and shots passes to RBs between the hash marks. It's automatic and been there from Week 1 through the playoffs. Bills with struggle with traditional runs but the speedster in passing game is extension of that on high-percentage targets. Look what he did vs Lions, Rams Colts and Fins for a blueprint here, with even a little volume in the passing attack

Amari Cooper has been quiet but I’m banking on a better game here. He has the ability, the experience and knows the Bal secondary from his days as a Brown. The juice is high but I think the snow helps
Though both teams have impressed this season, the Ravens are built specifically for a hard-hitting, ground-based game like this. The frigid conditions will not affect them like they would other teams. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is seemingly unstoppable; Josh Allen and James Cook are certainly dynamic, but they are going up against a much tougher defensive front. Baltimore’s ability to sustain drives has not faltered since earlier in the season when it dominated Buffalo, and the combination of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely should pay dividends. The Bills are excellent at home, and while I disagreed with the line flipping, it ultimately found the right side. Jackson outplays Allen and the Ravens take it.
For years the Ravens have faltered and not been able to get over the hump in the postseason with Lamar Jackson under center. That burden now has strong support with the addition of Derrick Henry. Henry’s playoff ability to sway a team we have seen before with the Titans, ending Tom Brady’s Patriots career, beating the Ravens, and helping build a 17-7 lead in the AFC championship on the Chiefs. His hunger combined and skill put the Ravens past the Bills and onto the AFC championship.
It'll be 15° in Buffalo with 2 mph winds and a 28% chance of precipitation but no wind is the key. Lamar Jackson versus Josh Allen. That's the story. Jackson's the favorite on the road despite his poor record (3-4) in the playoffs. When they met in September it was all Baltimore 35-10 but Jackson didn't have the lingering postseason dilemma to deal with. Buffalo won the previous two meetings. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row. The Bills won for their last five and the loss was the giveaway to the Patriots in the final week. I can take the Bills here at home and not lay any points and get a fresh Josh Allen. Buffalo wins.

Veteran wideout Curtis Samuel has come up big in pivotal games this season, and he thrives against man coverage. The Ravens play a high rate of man coverage, so I look for Samuel to be a factor in Buffalo's crowded receiving corps.

A year removed from abandoning their run game, the Ravens have a chance for redemption - and a tremendous match-up for their 250-pound HOF RB who was in TEN last year. They can't get too cute in RZ or goal to go and that's backfired a bunch. They are going 6 OL more than any time in NFL and doing it all over the field. Bills don't have the mass to match up and Henry saw way more action in pass game than the norm in first meeting. Lamar is not a big drive finisher on the ground, nor is Pat Ricard or Justice Hill. It's all Henry. I foresee ample opportunity. Even if Bills know what's coming they aren't built to stop it.

Ravens are now destroying teams out of heavy and super jumbo stuff. To this point they haven't thrown the ball out of the 6 OL looks ... That's coming and I expect Hill to flourish with it. He needed to get his legs back under him last week after missing several weeks, but he is far and away their best pass pro back, he'll get shots in the 2:00 offense and Lamar had learned to embrace the horizontal run game. I expect him to catch a wheel route and some screens. The Ravens have been slowly setting up their versatility out of extremely jumbo looks and this is quite likely the next wrinkle in that evolution. Hill was a scrimmage monster in the first game.

The Bills are going to have to sell out to try to mitigate Derrick Henry. They cannot let him run all over them like they did last time. PIT faced the same conundrum after getting torn up by Henry and then Lamar went off against them last week. Lamar will have meshpoint chances to keep and sprint. Barely ran in their first meeting. LJ is over this in 5 of his last 6 games. He is over this in 6 of his 7 career playoff games.
Temperatures in the teens with possible snow flurries might figure to slow down each of these offense. In any event, we don't foresee a repeat of the September 29 meeting won by the Ravens in a runaway, 35-10, when Derrick Henry blasted for 199 YR, including an 87-yard TD run. Buffalo has been content to rely on its ground game with the underrated James Cook, and Josh Allen's ability to keep drives alive with his legs. The run-heavy Ravens offense also figures to keep the clock and chains moving. If these teams couldn't get beyond 45 in relatively good weather back on September 29, we aren't expecting it to be any easier in expected arctic conditions. Note playoff unders 6-2 into Sunday. Play Ravens-Bills Under

Curtis Samuel had a frustrating regular season, but he came up big in the win over the Chiefs (5 catches, 68 yards, TD) and again in the Wild Card win over Denver (3 catches, 68 yards, TD). In fact, last week was his best overall performance this season, per PFF. Look for Samuel to make an impact Sunday vs. Baltimore.

Lamar Jackson ups his running in the playoffs. He rushed for 81 yards last week. Against Buffalo in the regular season, he got 54 yards on just six carries. With the weather potentially limiting passing, and without his top receiving threat in Zay Flowers, look for Jackson to be a big factor on the ground yet again.

We know Josh Allen ups his rushing in the postseason. He carried eight times in last week's blowout win over Denver. With the Ravens being super-tough on running backs, look for Allen to use his legs more than expected and record at least nine carries Sunday in the divisional playoffs.

When everything is on the line, we know Josh Allen isn't afraid to run and put his team on his back. Last year in the playoffs, Allen rushed for three touchdowns in two games. He racked up another 12 rushing touchdowns this season to make it 65 career rushing touchdowns through seven seasons. It is always hard to pinpoint who will score for the Bills outside of James Cook and Josh Allen. So I'm going to take the plus odds for Allen to find the end zone Sunday.

Over five seasons and seven playoff appearances thus far, Lamar Jackson has averaged 86 rushing yards per game in the NFL Playoffs. Jackson ran for 54 yards on just six carries in the matchup earlier this season against the Bills. With everything on the line, I expect Jackson to rush more than six time times on Sunday. I like his over this rushing prop and have bet the alt of 60+ rushing yards for plus odds.

While Derrick Henry isn't known for getting much receiving work, it should only take one catch in space for Henry to clear his receiving line on Sunday. The Bills' defense gives up the most receiving yards to running backs by a wide margin. I like the Justice Hill receiving line too, but I want to take advantage of this low-hanging fruit. Henry had at least one catch in 13 of the 17 regular season games. He had 10 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown when he faced the Bills earlier this season. The goal should be to get the ball in Henry's hands in any way possible and I love betting the over on this low line.
There have been eight home underdogs in the divisional round since 1977, and only one lost in regulation (Carolina as a one-point 'dog 11 years ago). This Bills team isn't dealing with any major injury but rather the ghost of Week 4 where Baltimore won 35-10 in the Bills' worst performance against the run all year. With no Zay Flowers to worry about, I expect Buffalo to do a better job limiting the Ravens offense, and even if it somehow turns into a shootout in frigid weather, Josh Allen has proved capable of winning those. I'll take Buffalo to remain undefeated at home as I think they should be short favorites, not underdogs.
The NFL’s two best offensive players square off. Josh Allen and the Bills had a historic season in terms of offensive efficiency… yet Baltimore was better. The Ravens have been a secondary away from being the best team in the AFC. FS Marcus Williams was benched, SS Kyle Hamilton stopped playing up in the box so frequently, and DB’s Ar’Darius Washington & Nate Wiggins played at an elite level down the stretch of the season. The Ravens have the league’s #1 rush defense, and if they can contain Bills star RB James Cook, Josh Allen may not be able to outscore Lamar Jackson, even if he is playing “hero ball.” In frigid weather, Derrick Henry will be the best weapon on the field. Ravens flock.
When two heavyweight AFC teams fight, we often expect shootouts like the 42-36 Bills-Chiefs game three years ago. That's the only AFC playoff game in the divisional round or later to top 51 points despite the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens playing each other in many of those games. With frigid temperatures and potentially snow, and with Zay Flowers in question for Baltimore, I think there's a solid chance this looks more like the Ravens-Chiefs AFC Championship game from last year that ended 17-10 than both teams reaching the high 20s, especially if the Baltimore defense just has Buffalo's number like in the first meeting.

This is a lot of juice to lay but I'm playing my first kicker under of the season. Excluding Week 18 when they played mostly backups on defense, the Bills haven't allowed multiple field goals in seven straight contests. Tucker has only made multiple successful three-pointers in 2 of his last 9 games. With potential poor weather in Buffalo, this seems like another good spot to fade the future Hall of Fame kicker.

Even in an uncompetitive game last week, Justice Hill caught four passes (on four targets) versus Pittsburgh. This is likely to be a tight one, and Hill had his best game of the season vs. Buffalo, catching six passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. True, Matt Milano is back now. But with the Bills giving up the second-highest target share to running backs on an opponent-adjusted basis, and with Zay Flowers unlikely to play, I bet Hill to make at least three catches.

It's expected to be cold in Orchard Park, which could in theory limit offense, but since it's the playoffs I expect a lot of rushing from Jackson. His 15 carries last week were the most since the Week 1 game against the Chiefs (a pseudo-playoff environment), and he topped 60 rushing yards for the fifth time in six weeks. He's hit 54 rushing yards in six of seven career playoff games, and Bo Nix topped his rushing total against the Bills last week on just four carries. Jackson and Kyler Murray both topped 50 against the Bills early in the year, but they haven't faced many mobile QBs since and may not be fully ready to keep Jackson under here. I'd play up to 54.5.
Home-field advantage around the league has been diminished, but how can we discount the Bills’ excellence in Buffalo? They are 9-0 this season, with four margins in the 20s and another in the 30s. Yet they are on the receiving end here. One factor in Baltimore’s favoritism is its 35-10 spanking of Buffalo in Week Four when RB Derrick Henry ran wild. Two key Bills LBs who sat out are back, and Buffalo’s defense yielded the 12th fewest yards per game in the regular season despite Baltimore’s banner day. Ravens WR Zay Flowers, who bypassed the wild-card game with an injury, is unlikely to return. While both teams breezed to first-round wins, Buffalo’s came against the rising Broncos whereas Baltimore’s occurred against the sinking Steelers.

Designed runs against the Ravens defense go nowhere. even if the Bills get jumbo with 6 OL as they do nearly twice as much as any team, good luck with that (BAL 3rd in EPA and 4th in Success Rate vs jumbo runs). Off script Allen is their best mode of attack and his legs will be active. He's run for 46+ yards in 6 of his last 8 playoff games. Bills suffered badly with not enough option runs for Allen, and him not activating his legs enough in their first meeting. Lesson learned here with the season on the line. Close games bring this out even more in him and went over this in blowout of Broncos last week.

Cook hasnt shown up in the receiving ledger - 3 straight without a target. But the Ravens are horrible defending RBs in the screen game, and Ty Johnson hasn't caught a lot of balls, either, and Cook was dominating in the pass game this time a year ago. They can attack with him between the hash marks. Ravens zone up the deep stuff and wheel routes and checkdowns to the RB are a sound way to attack. Ravens very stout on the ground but Bills will want to keep Cook involved. Roquan Smith has suffered in coverage this year despite the All Pro designation and they badly miss Patrick Queen in coverage. Bills need to control some clock and early-down screens to Cook help.

Bills lack the personnel to hold up here, and especially in the second half could be gasping for air as this freight train just gets rolling. Since Ravens bye when Henry began running 60% of the time from the pistol (he was over 60% under center in first 13 weeks) he has 6 runs of this length in 4 games. He had 4 runs of 25 yards or more in the first meeting with the Bills, and that was before the Ravens run scheme was as evolved as it is now. He had two over 50. Good luck.

He is a machine and he destroyed the Bills in the first meeting. They can't handle runs with a FB on field (30th in NFL at 5.9/carry) and Ravens ran for over 200 yards with FB on field in first meeting with BUF. BAL also now using 6 OL runs more than any team in NFL and Henry is far more comfortable in pistol runs now than he was in the first meeting (he was almost exclusively under center in TEN). Bills have a light front 7 and even with 8 in the box they can't hold up to a back of this size and a 300-pound FB and 260-pound blocking TE. Add in the element of Lamar and it's pick your poison.
Baltimore ran for 271 yards in the first meeting. It won't be that easy Sunday in Buffalo, against a healthier Bills' defense, but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry give the Ravens a substantial edge on the ground. Baltimore also gives up the fewest rushing yards per game. Even if No. 1 wideout Zay Flowers (knee) does not return, Jackson still has plenty of weapons led by Henry, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman. Look for the Ravens to win a high-scoring classic.
I expect that the Ravens will be favored very soon in every book so I’ll grab the value now. The ravens are rolling on offense, and the Bills D can be susceptible to explosive Plays. Ravens won 35-10 in Bal earlier.
The Ravens thrashed the Bills in Baltimore, despite Lamar Jackson attempting 4 total targets to Zay Flowers, Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews. Targets. They can do it again. BUF ranks 31st allowing 5.9/carry in 21/22 personnel; lack size to hold up with FB on field. BAL ran 23 times for 201 yards with Pat Ricard on field in that game. Now BAL is using 6 OL jumbo packages, too, with the FB. Good luck stopping that. BUF designed runs won't work here, not even their 6 OL stuff. BAL can road grade to a win, supplemented by play action bombs BUF safety paring and pass rush give me pause. Ravens D has a superior spine. Lamar Jackson is breaking his playoff spell.
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