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The Detroit Lions are gonna score points in this game, but I’ll play under 33 1/2. Any struggles in the red zone, penalties or ball control by Wash all help the under. Under
I was waiting for a 56 to pop up, so grab this Under now at Bet MGM. The Commanders defense is starting to shape up with new addition DB Marshon Lattimore. They were able to hold the dangerous Buccaneers offense to just 20 points behind a gritty performance. The Lions now have key defensive pieces healthy in DT D.J Reader & LB Alex Anzalone. While I certainly expect offense in this matchup, I feel the total is inflated for a playoff game. The last playoff total that closed above 56 was in 2019, and featured Tom Brady & Patrick Mahomes… I’ll play the Under.

These markets opened up pretty crazy but have settled down now. He is the smashmouth guy and the tone setter early and with him back from injury but possibly on a pitch count, goal-to-go should be all him. Commanders run D is soft and allowed 18 rushing TDs. Both Sonic and Knuckles getting into the endzone makes their crowd crazy and Montgomery is the opener and closer. This is why he's back. It's hit in 6 of his last 8 home games. I see Gibbs gutting them between the 20s and Montgomery finishing drives. Dan Campbell is an emotional guy. They want to get their guy to paydirt today and their OL can bully this DL.

The Lions team total is 33.5. That implies 4 TDs. Odds one goes to the lead goallinr back? More than the 57% this book offering. Other books are -200

David Montgomery is off the injury report and back for the Detroit Lions. While we may have to speculate how much of a workload Montgomery will have in his first game back, we can also take advantage of lower-than-normal lines. Montgomery was much more involved in this passing game this season. Before he was injured late in the season, he had seven games in a row with 20 or more receiving yards. Montgomery can exceed this line in just one or two catches.

We know Jared Goff has had an amazing season heading into the postseason. What I particularly love about Goff's matchup Saturday night is his statistics against man coverage. The Washington defense plays man coverage at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Goff has completed 72.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards/attempt this season against man coverage. Goff has gone over this line in over half the games this season. I expect the Lions to be aggressive as usual and I like Goff to soar past this number.

I was ready to give this out at 9.5 carries, but have no issue taking it now at plus odds for over 10.5. Detroit plays a league-high rate of man coverage, which should give Daniels plenty of opportunities to take off. In their narrow win over the Buccaneers in the wild card round, Daniels ran the ball 13 times for 36 yards, and probably should have had 15+ carries. Washington used a lot of read-option last week, and on several occasions Daniels handed the ball off to a RB for an unsuccessful zone run, instead of keeping it. The Lions' defensive front can do more of the same. If Washington has a shot at beating Detroit, Daniels will have to do it himself.
Wish there was a prop for how many times the Lions will punt because I’m not sure it will happen more than once or twice. As impressive as the Commanders and Jayden Daniels were beating the Buccaneers, it sure feels like Detroit is an unstoppable force in the NFC. This is a large spread, but the Lions win games in dominant fashion. There is concern that Daniels could backdoor cover, no doubt, though we know Detroit doesn’t take its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. The Lions defense is still injured, but if can keep Daniels in the pocket, I ultimately like Ben Johnson’s offense over Dan Quinn’s defense, which is probably a year away from its own dominance.
We've got two of the top five scoring teams in the NFL with Washington averaging 28.2 points a game and Detroit averaging 33.2 points a game. Washington comes in on a six-game winning streak and they went 11-7 to the over this season. Detroit has won and covered their last three games and four of their last five games have gone over. Detroit's going to score early and force Washington to go fast which is their best offense. Over is the play.
Consistent with the narrative that the Commanders are playing with house money, rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked impervious to pressure all season, and the manner in which Washington (6-0 SU last six) has won some of its games suggests there is a bit of magic about this team. We wonder at times if Dan Campbell is just a bit too gung-ho with his over-aggressive strategies on the Lions side, which cost Detroit in the NFC title game last season. There are still injury concerns on the Lions' defense, and putting the clamps on the Vikings two weeks ago is less impressive considering how Sam Darnold struggled versus the Rams. Washington stayed within this price at Philly & Baltimore, too. Play Commanders.
The Lions have won and covered against Washington six out of the last seven times dating back to 2009 but this Commanders team led by rookie Jayden Daniels has won six straight entering the divisional round. They didn't just win those games they won with style. That's a learning and growing process for Washington and they're going to score well against the Lions who allowed San Francisco to score 34 and Buffalo to score 48 in two of their last four games. Washington has the No. 7 rated offense averaging 368 yards a game and the No. 3 rushing offense at 150 yards per game. That running game is going to give Detroit some fits. Washington team total over.
The Detroit Lions are 15-2 and 12-5 against the spread on the season as they welcome Washington to town. The Lions have improved as the season has gone on, winning and covering their last three. And their last win against Minnesota might be their best defensive performance of the season. The Lions score 33 points per game and allow 22 points a game. Nobody scores more than the Lions on the season and the Commanders will need to score as well. This is going to be a very competitive game and high-scoring. But I think that Washington is going to hang close so rather than lay the points, I'm taking the Lions team total over 32.5.

Jameson Williams’ electric speed makes him nearly impossible to cover man to man. That’s why his numbers spike versus man coverage. Some of his biggest performances have come against man-heavy defenses like the Commanders, who play it at the sixth-highest rate.

Before his injury, Montgomery was averaging 15.8 touches per game and will face a very favorable matchup against a soft Commanders run defense. Washington ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush, as well as 24th in success rate. Game flow should also be in his favor.

We are getting a significant discount on this line as David Montgomery hasn’t appeared in a game since Week 15. Montgomery is a veteran and I don’t anticipate rust or conditioning to be a factor and I expect him to resume to his normal role/workload. Monty was averaging 15.8 touches per game and will face a very favorable matchup against a soft Commanders run defense. Washington ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush, as well as 24th in success rate. Look for Monty to get plenty of work in the Lions backfield.Â

With Bobby Wagner banged up and the Lions’ affinity for running the ball, safety Jeremy Chinn is poised for a big game. He has been key in run support and this is the best possible matchup for racking up tackles.

FanDuel. This is a very low line for Williams, who is coming into the playoffs having cleared this line in 7 of his last 8 games (with six of those overs coming in at 5+ receptions). Over that span, his average depth of target has shrunk to 9.0 yards (had been 15.8 previously, per PFF). His expanded route tree has him garnering more than just deep looks. And I like that to continue against an average commanders secondary. Would bet this line up to -155.

DraftKings. Jeremy Chinn finished the regular season as the Commanders’ second leading tackler. As a box safety, he’s proficient against the run - he was 6th amongst qualified safeties in run stops per game, per PFF. The matchup against Detroit should be a strong one - the Lions allowed the most tackles per game, including top 9 vs both safeties and LBs (the latter more pertinent to Chinn who spends more time close to the line of scrimmage). So despite Chinn’s hit rate of 8/18 this season, I’m comfortable with this line in a plus matchup.

In his 15 games, Montgomery's been over this 11 times including 10 wins and one close loss. On the four occasions Montgomery didn't get 11-plus carries he was either hurt or involved in a blowout win three times. The Commanders' run defense isn't good as it has let up 4.5 yards per rush and a 12.9% 10-yard rush rate over its past five. I'd expect the Lions to get back to rushing because of that matchup. I get the concern about Montgomery coming off a knee injury, but after the Lions gave Jahmyr Gibbs 23, 18 and 23 carries, my guess is they'll be more concerned about reducing Gibbs' workload a little bit and give Montgomery, who practiced in full all week his normal reps.

The rookie Daniels has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight games in which he's played the entire game (excluding Week 18). The Lions, after not surrendering multiple touchdown passes through 11 games, allowed four passers to go over this number in their last six games. In what figures to be a high-scoring game in Detroit, I think Daniels keeps his streak going on Saturday night.

In his last two high-leverage games, against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Jayden Daniels ran 16 times and 13 times. Now he’s facing a man-heavy scheme that induces QB runs. In a playoff game like this, the Commanders will not shy away from Daniels having a big rushing workload.
This spread is likely well off, but you could argue in either direction. If the Lions defensive improvements against the Vikings were a mirage, this line should be 7 at highest and the Commanders have a shot at this game. I'm going the other way and expecting the rookie QB to struggle on the road with a relentless offense putting up score after score on the other side. I've laddered this up to Lions -19.5, but now that -8.5 is available in the market, the best way to play this game is a six-point teaser with Chiefs -8.5, which I locked in at the beginning of the week.
Washington is going to have a tough time slowing down Detroit's offensive machine, but the Commanders' offense should be able to get into the mid- to high-20s. Washington ranks fourth in both passing and rushing efficiency. In the playoffs, teams like Washington that rank in the top 5 in EPA per dropback are 12-5 ATS when getting at least a touchdown. Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury have shown they can score against strong defenses like the Eagles. Look for the Lions to win a 34-27 type of game, and grab the points.

I believe this number opened at 28.5 and most sportsbooks took some action and it's now 33.5 at most places. BetMGM still has the 29.5 and I'm happy to take it there (I'm ok with the 33.5. It's not my favorite ladder, but that is in play as well). Dyami is averaging 4+ targets over his last 5 games and he's been very efficient with them. He's also a big play threat and could potentially get this on one catch. JD is slated to throw for 230+ in what's likely to be a negative game script and it's not all going to Terry McLaurin. I expect Dyami and Olamide to get their fair share.

I know David Montgomery is back but I believe Gibbs will get at least 15 carries in a game where the Lions are 9.5-point favorites. Gibbs has 64 carries in the last three games and he's Detroit's most explosive offensive weapon. I don't see the Lions overusing Montgomery with him returning from a knee injury. I think Gibbs clears 14.5 carries.

The Lions are fresh off a bye and expected to get back David Montgomery, but I still expect Gibbs to be the primary rusher against a defense that ranks 28th in yards per rush allowed and might not have elite run defender Bobby Wagner. Gibbs has 13 runs of 20+ yards this year, while Washington has given up those runs to eight backs, including long TDs to Saquon Barkley and D'Andre Swift. One of those could be in store for Gibbs in this matchup as well.

I'm not sure how fully healthy David Montgomery is, but I am darn sure that Mr. Tough Guy Dan Campbell respects the heck out of Monty for working his way back so quickly from a potentially serious knee injury that he's going to reward him with a TD if at all possible.

David Montgomery is confident in his rehabbed knee. However, the MCL injury wasn't minor. His return is a boost for the Lions, but I think they lean on him more in short yardage and high-leverage situations, as opposed to his normal role. Jahmyr Gibbs has erupted in the past three games and it would be unwise for Ben Johnson to cut into his touches too much in a win-or-go-home game.

The Commanders can't run the ball well at all and they have just 2 rushing TDs in the last 5 games. Jayden Daniels is buying time in the RZ and making off script throws and he's not afraid to target Scary Terry any place in the game at any down and distance. The Lions secondary had massive issues down the stretch. McLaurin has a TD in seven of last eight road games with 10 total in that span. He has 14 TDs in his last 16 games and a TD in six of his last seven games overall.

Daniels has rushed at least 9 times in 5 of the last 6 games. He could end up with 15 or more here. Another game where I don't see designed runs for RBs going anywhere and this OL has issues. Daniels has to sustain drives with his legs and perhaps he is again short on explosive runs like he was last week, but I expect double digit attempts. He will have to take off and scramble at least 5 times and I anticipate a higher number of dropbacks than normal with Commanders likely chasing this game.

LaPorta scored in two of the last three games and the bye should do him good after missing so much time in the regular season. Vegas thinks this will be a shootout and I do, too, and this is very nice value compared to other Lions options. Washington is bad vs TEs in goal to go situations, and if the Commanders sell out to stop the run there I like this matchup. Of five attempts to TEs in goal-to-go situations this season, four went for TDs.

The Commanders' run defense has major issues and the Lions have the kind of OL that can push them around. David Montgomery is back but there was more than enough carries for both to eat before and Lions can't ignore what Gibbs has done lately. Washington is dealing with injuries to Daron Payne and Bobby Wagner could be a big problem on a fast track. I project Gibbs to out-attempt Montgomery between the 20s and rip off several explosive runs vs this suspect defense. I'm playing 100+ in alt markets after three straight 100-yard outings. Washington is a bottom 10 team in missed tackles vs the run and Gibbs is one of the best at making people miss.
I totally understand this, but 33 points is a lot to score in a playoff game when you are simply trying to win and advance -- and I'm assuming the Commanders will try and chew clock wherever possible when they have the ball to keep that No. 1 Detroit offense on the bench. While this Lions O was better than last year's, the 2023 Lions scored 24 and 31 points in their two playoff games at Ford Field. Playoff games are usually differently paced -- only two teams got to 30 points on Wild Card Weekend and none past 32. Would I go any lower than this number? Probably not, and our model has Detroit right at 33 points.
Not sure how much longer this will be around. So I'm grabbing it now. Lions are far superior team, they are more rested and Commanders are limited - tepid pass rush, can't run the ball, rookie QB is amazing but this dome will be a problem. Lions getting healthier and have Sonic and Knuckles back. Can dominate TOP. They are playoff tested. I don't think Washington can keep pace offensively.
Team Injuries





