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Sun, Jan 191:00 am UTCFord Field
Track OnCBS Sports
Washington
Commanders
WAS
Last 5 ATS
W/L14-6
ATS12-7
O/U13-7-0
FINAL SCORE
45
-
31
Detroit
Lions
DET
Last 5 ATS
W/L15-3
ATS12-6
O/U10-8-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
14-6
Win /Loss
15-3
12-7
Spread
12-6
13-7-0
Over / Under
10-8-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
WAS @ DET
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
WAS @ DET
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

OVER / UNDER
WAS @ DET
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

45%
PUBLIC
55%
MONEY
10%
PUBLIC
90%
MONEY
Over53%
PUBLIC
Under47%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Total Home PointsDetroit Under 33.5 Total Pts -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+250
3-0 in Last 3 NFL Team Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

The Detroit Lions are gonna score points in this game, but I’ll play under 33 1/2. Any struggles in the red zone, penalties or ball control by Wash all help the under. Under

Pick Made: Jan 19, 12:03 am UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 56 -118
LOSS
Unit1.5
+641.5
13-6 in Last 19 NFL Picks
+240
2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
+53
4-3 in Last 7 DET O/U Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

I was waiting for a 56 to pop up, so grab this Under now at Bet MGM. The Commanders defense is starting to shape up with new addition DB Marshon Lattimore. They were able to hold the dangerous Buccaneers offense to just 20 points behind a gritty performance. The Lions now have key defensive pieces healthy in DT D.J Reader & LB Alex Anzalone. While I certainly expect offense in this matchup, I feel the total is inflated for a playoff game. The last playoff total that closed above 56 was in 2019, and featured Tom Brady & Patrick Mahomes… I’ll play the Under.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 10:52 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerDavid Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer -135
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

These markets opened up pretty crazy but have settled down now. He is the smashmouth guy and the tone setter early and with him back from injury but possibly on a pitch count, goal-to-go should be all him. Commanders run D is soft and allowed 18 rushing TDs. Both Sonic and Knuckles getting into the endzone makes their crowd crazy and Montgomery is the opener and closer. This is why he's back. It's hit in 6 of his last 8 home games. I see Gibbs gutting them between the 20s and Montgomery finishing drives. Dan Campbell is an emotional guy. They want to get their guy to paydirt today and their OL can bully this DL.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 7:13 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerDavid Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer -135
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1178
63-44 in Last 107 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

The Lions team total is 33.5. That implies 4 TDs. Odds one goes to the lead goallinr back? More than the 57% this book offering. Other books are -200

Pick Made: Jan 18, 6:27 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDavid Montgomery Over 13.5 Total Receiving Yards -113
LOSS
Unit1.0
+311
25-20 in Last 45 NFL Player Props Picks
Megan's Analysis:

David Montgomery is off the injury report and back for the Detroit Lions. While we may have to speculate how much of a workload Montgomery will have in his first game back, we can also take advantage of lower-than-normal lines. Montgomery was much more involved in this passing game this season. Before he was injured late in the season, he had seven games in a row with 20 or more receiving yards. Montgomery can exceed this line in just one or two catches.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 5:40 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Passing YardsJared Goff Over 272.5 Total Passing Yards -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+311
25-20 in Last 45 NFL Player Props Picks
Megan's Analysis:

We know Jared Goff has had an amazing season heading into the postseason. What I particularly love about Goff's matchup Saturday night is his statistics against man coverage. The Washington defense plays man coverage at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Goff has completed 72.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards/attempt this season against man coverage. Goff has gone over this line in over half the games this season. I expect the Lions to be aggressive as usual and I like Goff to soar past this number.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 5:30 am UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total CarriesJayden Daniels Over 10.5 Total Carries +105
WIN
Unit1.0
+1816.5
68-47 in Last 115 NFL Player Props Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

I was ready to give this out at 9.5 carries, but have no issue taking it now at plus odds for over 10.5. Detroit plays a league-high rate of man coverage, which should give Daniels plenty of opportunities to take off. In their narrow win over the Buccaneers in the wild card round, Daniels ran the ball 13 times for 36 yards, and probably should have had 15+ carries. Washington used a lot of read-option last week, and on several occasions Daniels handed the ball off to a RB for an unsuccessful zone run, instead of keeping it. The Lions' defensive front can do more of the same. If Washington has a shot at beating Detroit, Daniels will have to do it himself.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 5:24 am UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadDetroit -8.5 -112
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2667
86-54-4 in Last 144 NFL Picks
+2577
84-53-4 in Last 141 NFL ATS Picks
+1104
20-8-1 in Last 29 DET ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

Wish there was a prop for how many times the Lions will punt because I’m not sure it will happen more than once or twice. As impressive as the Commanders and Jayden Daniels were beating the Buccaneers, it sure feels like Detroit is an unstoppable force in the NFC. This is a large spread, but the Lions win games in dominant fashion. There is concern that Daniels could backdoor cover, no doubt, though we know Detroit doesn’t take its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. The Lions defense is still injured, but if can keep Daniels in the pocket, I ultimately like Ben Johnson’s offense over Dan Quinn’s defense, which is probably a year away from its own dominance.

Pick Made: Jan 18, 4:35 am UTC on DraftKings
Over / UnderOver 55.5 -108
WIN
Unit1.0
+150
6-4 in Last 10 NFL Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
+338
10-6 in Last 16 DET O/U Picks
Micah's Analysis:

We've got two of the top five scoring teams in the NFL with Washington averaging 28.2 points a game and Detroit averaging 33.2 points a game. Washington comes in on a six-game winning streak and they went 11-7 to the over this season. Detroit has won and covered their last three games and four of their last five games have gone over. Detroit's going to score early and force Washington to go fast which is their best offense. Over is the play.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 11:31 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadWashington +9.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+280
4-1 in Last 5 NFL Picks
+180
3-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+172
4-2 in Last 6 WAS ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Consistent with the narrative that the Commanders are playing with house money, rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked impervious to pressure all season, and the manner in which Washington (6-0 SU last six) has won some of its games suggests there is a bit of magic about this team. We wonder at times if Dan Campbell is just a bit too gung-ho with his over-aggressive strategies on the Lions side, which cost Detroit in the NFC title game last season. There are still injury concerns on the Lions' defense, and putting the clamps on the Vikings two weeks ago is less impressive considering how Sam Darnold struggled versus the Rams. Washington stayed within this price at Philly & Baltimore, too. Play Commanders.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 11:20 pm UTC on BetMGM
Total Away PointsWashington Over 22.5 Total Pts -112
WIN
Unit1.0
Micah's Analysis:

The Lions have won and covered against Washington six out of the last seven times dating back to 2009 but this Commanders team led by rookie Jayden Daniels has won six straight entering the divisional round. They didn't just win those games they won with style. That's a learning and growing process for Washington and they're going to score well against the Lions who allowed San Francisco to score 34 and Buffalo to score 48 in two of their last four games. Washington has the No. 7 rated offense averaging 368 yards a game and the No. 3 rushing offense at 150 yards per game. That running game is going to give Detroit some fits. Washington team total over.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 11:18 pm UTC on FanDuel
Total Home PointsDetroit Over 32.5 Total Pts -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
Micah's Analysis:

The Detroit Lions are 15-2 and 12-5 against the spread on the season as they welcome Washington to town. The Lions have improved as the season has gone on, winning and covering their last three. And their last win against Minnesota might be their best defensive performance of the season. The Lions score 33 points per game and allow 22 points a game. Nobody scores more than the Lions on the season and the Commanders will need to score as well. This is going to be a very competitive game and high-scoring. But I think that Washington is going to hang close so rather than lay the points, I'm taking the Lions team total over 32.5.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 10:55 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsJameson Williams Over 55.5 Total Receiving Yards -113
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1333.5
151-113 in Last 264 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Jameson Williams’ electric speed makes him nearly impossible to cover man to man. That’s why his numbers spike versus man coverage. Some of his biggest performances have come against man-heavy defenses like the Commanders, who play it at the sixth-highest rate.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 9:53 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total CarriesDavid Montgomery Over 9.5 Total Carries -139
LOSS
Unit1.0
+179
3-1 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

Before his injury, Montgomery was averaging 15.8 touches per game and will face a very favorable matchup against a soft Commanders run defense. Washington ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush, as well as 24th in success rate. Game flow should also be in his favor.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 9:40 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsDavid Montgomery Over 45.5 Total Rushing Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+179
3-1 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

We are getting a significant discount on this line as David Montgomery hasn’t appeared in a game since Week 15. Montgomery is a veteran and I don’t anticipate rust or conditioning to be a factor and I expect him to resume to his normal role/workload. Monty was averaging 15.8 touches per game and will face a very favorable matchup against a soft Commanders run defense. Washington ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush, as well as 24th in success rate. Look for Monty to get plenty of work in the Lions backfield. 

Pick Made: Jan 17, 9:39 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Tackles Plus AssistsJeremy Chinn Over 6.5 Total Tackles Plus Assists -139
WIN
Unit1.0
+1333.5
151-113 in Last 264 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

With Bobby Wagner banged up and the Lions’ affinity for running the ball, safety Jeremy Chinn is poised for a big game. He has been key in run support and this is the best possible matchup for racking up tackles.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 6:54 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total ReceptionsJameson Williams Over 3.5 Total Receptions -140
LOSS
Unit1.0
+67
9-7 in Last 16 NFL Player Props Picks
Prop's Analysis:

FanDuel. This is a very low line for Williams, who is coming into the playoffs having cleared this line in 7 of his last 8 games (with six of those overs coming in at 5+ receptions). Over that span, his average depth of target has shrunk to 9.0 yards (had been 15.8 previously, per PFF). His expanded route tree has him garnering more than just deep looks. And I like that to continue against an average commanders secondary. Would bet this line up to -155.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 4:49 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Tackles Plus AssistsJeremy Chinn Over 6.5 Total Tackles Plus Assists -125
WIN
Unit1.0
+67
9-7 in Last 16 NFL Player Props Picks
Prop's Analysis:

DraftKings. Jeremy Chinn finished the regular season as the Commanders’ second leading tackler. As a box safety, he’s proficient against the run - he was 6th amongst qualified safeties in run stops per game, per PFF. The matchup against Detroit should be a strong one - the Lions allowed the most tackles per game, including top 9 vs both safeties and LBs (the latter more pertinent to Chinn who spends more time close to the line of scrimmage). So despite Chinn’s hit rate of 8/18 this season, I’m comfortable with this line in a plus matchup.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 4:06 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total CarriesDavid Montgomery Over 10.5 Total Carries -125
LOSS
Unit1.0
+192
10-7 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

In his 15 games, Montgomery's been over this 11 times including 10 wins and one close loss. On the four occasions Montgomery didn't get 11-plus carries he was either hurt or involved in a blowout win three times. The Commanders' run defense isn't good as it has let up 4.5 yards per rush and a 12.9% 10-yard rush rate over its past five. I'd expect the Lions to get back to rushing because of that matchup. I get the concern about Montgomery coming off a knee injury, but after the Lions gave Jahmyr Gibbs 23, 18 and 23 carries, my guess is they'll be more concerned about reducing Gibbs' workload a little bit and give Montgomery, who practiced in full all week his normal reps.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 2:39 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Passing TouchdownsJayden Daniels Over 1.5 Total Passing Touchdowns +105
WIN
Unit1.0
+330.5
16-11 in Last 27 NFL Player Props Picks
Eric's Analysis:

The rookie Daniels has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight games in which he's played the entire game (excluding Week 18). The Lions, after not surrendering multiple touchdown passes through 11 games, allowed four passers to go over this number in their last six games. In what figures to be a high-scoring game in Detroit, I think Daniels keeps his streak going on Saturday night.

Pick Made: Jan 17, 5:33 am UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total CarriesJayden Daniels Over 9.5 Total Carries -143
WIN
Unit1.0
+1333.5
151-113 in Last 264 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

In his last two high-leverage games, against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Jayden Daniels ran 16 times and 13 times. Now he’s facing a man-heavy scheme that induces QB runs. In a playoff game like this, the Commanders will not shy away from Daniels having a big rushing workload.

Pick Made: Jan 16, 7:17 pm UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadDetroit -8.5 -112
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1323
29-15 in Last 44 NFL Picks
+675
52-41-1 in Last 94 NFL ATS Picks
+1279.5
44-29-1 in Last 74 DET ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

This spread is likely well off, but you could argue in either direction. If the Lions defensive improvements against the Vikings were a mirage, this line should be 7 at highest and the Commanders have a shot at this game. I'm going the other way and expecting the rookie QB to struggle on the road with a relentless offense putting up score after score on the other side. I've laddered this up to Lions -19.5, but now that -8.5 is available in the market, the best way to play this game is a six-point teaser with Chiefs -8.5, which I locked in at the beginning of the week.

Pick Made: Jan 16, 6:37 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadWashington +9.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+180
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Picks
+90
2-1-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+1117
19-7 in Last 26 DET ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Washington is going to have a tough time slowing down Detroit's offensive machine, but the Commanders' offense should be able to get into the mid- to high-20s. Washington ranks fourth in both passing and rushing efficiency. In the playoffs, teams like Washington that rank in the top 5 in EPA per dropback are 12-5 ATS when getting at least a touchdown. Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury have shown they can score against strong defenses like the Eagles. Look for the Lions to win a 34-27 type of game, and grab the points.

Pick Made: Jan 16, 3:29 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDyami Brown Over 29.5 Total Receiving Yards -133
WIN
Unit1.0
+1464
40-22 in Last 62 NFL Player Props Picks
Sia's Analysis:

I believe this number opened at 28.5 and most sportsbooks took some action and it's now 33.5 at most places. BetMGM still has the 29.5 and I'm happy to take it there (I'm ok with the 33.5. It's not my favorite ladder, but that is in play as well). Dyami is averaging 4+ targets over his last 5 games and he's been very efficient with them. He's also a big play threat and could potentially get this on one catch. JD is slated to throw for 230+ in what's likely to be a negative game script and it's not all going to Terry McLaurin. I expect Dyami and Olamide to get their fair share.

Pick Made: Jan 16, 2:06 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total CarriesJahmyr Gibbs Over 14.5 Total Carries -128
LOSS
Unit1.0
+147
11-8 in Last 19 NFL Player Props Picks
Thomas's Analysis:

I know David Montgomery is back but I believe Gibbs will get at least 15 carries in a game where the Lions are 9.5-point favorites. Gibbs has 64 carries in the last three games and he's Detroit's most explosive offensive weapon. I don't see the Lions overusing Montgomery with him returning from a knee injury. I think Gibbs clears 14.5 carries.

Pick Made: Jan 16, 5:26 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Longest RushJahmyr Gibbs Over 19.5 Longest Rush -105
WIN
Unit1.0
+1148
30-17 in Last 47 NFL Player Props Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Lions are fresh off a bye and expected to get back David Montgomery, but I still expect Gibbs to be the primary rusher against a defense that ranks 28th in yards per rush allowed and might not have elite run defender Bobby Wagner. Gibbs has 13 runs of 20+ yards this year, while Washington has given up those runs to eight backs, including long TDs to Saquon Barkley and D'Andre Swift. One of those could be in store for Gibbs in this matchup as well.

Pick Made: Jan 16, 2:07 am UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerDavid Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer -150
LOSS
Unit0.5
+453
47-30 in Last 77 NFL Player Props Picks
Matt's Analysis:

I'm not sure how fully healthy David Montgomery is, but I am darn sure that Mr. Tough Guy Dan Campbell respects the heck out of Monty for working his way back so quickly from a potentially serious knee injury that he's going to reward him with a TD if at all possible.

Pick Made: Jan 15, 8:48 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Rushing + Receiving YardsDavid Montgomery Under 65.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+1333.5
151-113 in Last 264 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

David Montgomery is confident in his rehabbed knee. However, the MCL injury wasn't minor. His return is a boost for the Lions, but I think they lean on him more in short yardage and high-leverage situations, as opposed to his normal role. Jahmyr Gibbs has erupted in the past three games and it would be unwise for Ben Johnson to cut into his touches too much in a win-or-go-home game.

Pick Made: Jan 15, 8:04 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerTerry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown Scorer +140
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Commanders can't run the ball well at all and they have just 2 rushing TDs in the last 5 games. Jayden Daniels is buying time in the RZ and making off script throws and he's not afraid to target Scary Terry any place in the game at any down and distance. The Lions secondary had massive issues down the stretch. McLaurin has a TD in seven of last eight road games with 10 total in that span. He has 14 TDs in his last 16 games and a TD in six of his last seven games overall.

Pick Made: Jan 15, 2:16 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total CarriesJayden Daniels Over 9.5 Total Carries -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Daniels has rushed at least 9 times in 5 of the last 6 games. He could end up with 15 or more here. Another game where I don't see designed runs for RBs going anywhere and this OL has issues. Daniels has to sustain drives with his legs and perhaps he is again short on explosive runs like he was last week, but I expect double digit attempts. He will have to take off and scramble at least 5 times and I anticipate a higher number of dropbacks than normal with Commanders likely chasing this game.

Pick Made: Jan 15, 2:06 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerSam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown Scorer +145
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

LaPorta scored in two of the last three games and the bye should do him good after missing so much time in the regular season. Vegas thinks this will be a shootout and I do, too, and this is very nice value compared to other Lions options. Washington is bad vs TEs in goal to go situations, and if the Commanders sell out to stop the run there I like this matchup. Of five attempts to TEs in goal-to-go situations this season, four went for TDs.

Pick Made: Jan 15, 1:52 am UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJahmyr Gibbs Over 80.5 Total Rushing Yards -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Commanders' run defense has major issues and the Lions have the kind of OL that can push them around. David Montgomery is back but there was more than enough carries for both to eat before and Lions can't ignore what Gibbs has done lately. Washington is dealing with injuries to Daron Payne and Bobby Wagner could be a big problem on a fast track. I project Gibbs to out-attempt Montgomery between the 20s and rip off several explosive runs vs this suspect defense. I'm playing 100+ in alt markets after three straight 100-yard outings. Washington is a bottom 10 team in missed tackles vs the run and Gibbs is one of the best at making people miss.

Pick Made: Jan 15, 1:25 am UTC on FanDuel
Total Home PointsDetroit Under 33.5 Total Pts -120
WIN
Unit1.0
Matt's Analysis:

I totally understand this, but 33 points is a lot to score in a playoff game when you are simply trying to win and advance -- and I'm assuming the Commanders will try and chew clock wherever possible when they have the ball to keep that No. 1 Detroit offense on the bench. While this Lions O was better than last year's, the 2023 Lions scored 24 and 31 points in their two playoff games at Ford Field. Playoff games are usually differently paced -- only two teams got to 30 points on Wild Card Weekend and none past 32. Would I go any lower than this number? Probably not, and our model has Detroit right at 33 points.

Pick Made: Jan 14, 7:02 pm UTC on Caesars
Point SpreadDetroit -8.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+38
5-4 in Last 9 NFL ATS Picks
+272
6-3 in Last 9 DET ATS Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Not sure how much longer this will be around. So I'm grabbing it now. Lions are far superior team, they are more rested and Commanders are limited - tepid pass rush, can't run the ball, rookie QB is amazing but this dome will be a problem. Lions getting healthier and have Sonic and Knuckles back. Can dominate TOP. They are playoff tested. I don't think Washington can keep pace offensively.

Pick Made: Jan 13, 8:55 pm UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

Washington Commanders
Sunday, Feb 02, 2025
Avatar
OG
Samuel Cosmi
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Monday, Jan 27, 2025
Avatar
NT
Daron Payne
KneeQuestionable
Detroit Lions
Monday, Feb 03, 2025
Avatar
CB
Amik Robertson
ArmQuestionable
Monday, Jan 20, 2025
Avatar
OG
Kevin Zeitler
HamstringQuestionable
Avatar
DE
Pat O'Connor
CalfQuestionable
Sunday, Jan 19, 2025
Avatar
DB
Ifeatu Melifonwu
HamstringQuestionable
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