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Key starters for the Chiefs haven't played football since Christmas, so there's a chance they come out rusty. But once it was reported that Joe Thuney would start at left tackle, where he's solidified the Chiefs' blind side issues, I wanted to get involved in a Chiefs play without taking the full spread. So I'm going with them to get at least a field goal out of their first drive while holding a Texans offense that didn't score until the last minute of the first half last week off the board in the first quarter.

I thought the Chargers could limit him last week with their zones and safety play. I was wrong. Texans have a suspect screen game and suffer horizontally; Collins is the chain mover and he will find enough green grass on those in-cutters to get us here. I don't about the kind of YAC he is used to vs this D and not sure about vertical shots, but I see Texans chasing game and he grabbing a bunch of high-percentage passes. Hit is in the last game at KC. No Tank Dell and an offense that should move him and a need to throw the ball should result in 11 targets or more.
Expected this to open around 45 and was gonna go under. Pat Mahomes is 13-5 under at home reg season and playoffs since start of last season but those games averaged close of 46. We are way under that. KC can score 28 here without playing an ace game and I see the total similar to the last meeting between them a few weeks back. Chiefs playoff offense is historic and I think Andy Reid attacks in pass game early to try to build a lead. Total feels like a market overcorrection to me. Maybe I am off. KC games outside AFC West averaged 44 points. KC homes games since '18 as a favorite of 7+ (reg and playoffs) average 45 points.

DraftKings. Eric Murray has cleared this line in four of his last five games. This stretch coincides with him taking more slot snaps without Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward, both out for the season. He’s likely going to be responsible for Travis Kelce in coverage, as well as supporting the run defense. Murray lead the Texans with 10 combined tackles versus the Chiefs in their first matchup, and other box safeties have had success against KC recently (Minkah Fitzpatrick had 7, Grant Delpit 9).
Quite a spread for the Chiefs, which struggle to cover (particularly big numbers). Their 8-point win vs. Texans is probably part of it. Since then, Isiah Pacheco is healthier and Tank Dell (leading WR that game) is sidelined. Kansas City is also off a bye -- where Andy Reid is historically stellar, particularly when his opponent plays the week prior -- with starters rested for two weeks. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has improved. Houston’s offense is inconsistent. It's also an indoor team playing in the cold where Patrick Mahomes thrives (8-3 ATS). Mahomes is 6-0 this round (16 TD, 0 INT); he and the Chiefs are a huge step up from the Chargers. A simple Chiefs (-2.5) and Lions (-2.5) tease is a must as well.
This is a big number, but I think we are about to see the best version of the Chiefs. Key players have been resting for 2-3 weeks and additional key players are back on both sides of the ball. I don't see how the Texans score, particularly with Jaylen Watson back and what will amount to a non-existent Texan running game. I like the Texans Team Total Under as well, but I'm going to lay the points as I think the Chiefs put up enough offense to cover this line.
Kansas City has played 18 postseason games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. In half of those, the Chiefs scored in the 30s (six times), 40s (twice) and 50s (once). Two more resulted in the high 20s, two additional in the mid-20s. As spotty as the offense has been this season, playoff-time K.C. customarily has little trouble scoring. Houston must contribute to an Over. With TB Joe Mixon likely to play after being iffy all week, the Texans are capable of doing their part. K Ka'imi Fairbairn can pitch in; his 39 field goals were fourth most in the regular season.
The Kansas City Chiefs had their most regular season wins in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era, but it was also their lowest regular season point differential with Mahomes at quarterback. That speaks to how close most of their wins were. Off a bye teams can be slow out the gate. Houston is a common opponent from December 21st, that can adjust quicker to what they see in-game today. Look for the game to be played similar to their December matchup, which would give us the edge on the Texans. Grab the points with Houston.

Mahomes comes into this divisional round game well rested and ready for action. He's become known for his sneaky rush ability, especially in the playoffs. The Texans upset win over the Chargers in the wild card round was led by their defensive line. If DE’s Will Anderson & Danielle Hunter are getting pressure on Mahomes, he will roll out of the pocket and use his wheels. I prefer betting Mahomes’ carries prop over his rushing yards, because we get the benefit of cashing this with QB sneaks and kneels as well. Getting +110 odds on this feels like great odds considering the matchup against a vaunted Houston D-line, and the potential for the -8.5 Chiefs to win, and end the game with kneel downs.

Joe Mixon is expected to play in the divisional round despite an ankle injury, but with the risk for reinjury, cold temperatures and his opponent, I doubt he reaches 16 carries. Just two backs have gotten to 16 carries against the Chiefs all year, with neither going further, as Kansas City typically plays from ahead (as they are expected to do in this game). Mixon's 25 carries last week signified his highest total since Dec. 1, and even if his ankle holds up for three hours, the game script should keep him in the 12-15 carry range.
No question, the first round of the playoffs definitely tilted under (5-1) save Chargers-Texans, which looked most likely to land that way. Note the Chiefs' defense tightened the screws down the stretch, limiting five consecutive foes to a mere 14 ppg. True, Houston was included and the 27-19 KC win on December 21 that was the only Chiefs over result in that stretch. Houston's offense, however, has struggled, with CJ Stroud down targets Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. The Texans were on an 11-4 under run into the meaningless finale vs. the Titans and odd developments last week vs. the Bolts. Temperatures in the teens suggest this one might look a lot the Chiefs' 26-7 win over Miami last January. Play Texans-Chiefs Under.

The Chiefs' top weapons are healthy, but I still like primary receiving back Samaje Perine to clear this low prop total for the eighth straight time. In the regular-season meeting against Houston, he caught three passes for 50 yards. The Texans' elite edge rushers will force one or two quick throws to Perine.

This is the time of year when Mahomes starts using his legs more. In literally half of his 18 playoff games he's been over this line. And we've seen him run during the season, including against these Texans in Week 16. In fact, Houston's allowed a league-most 8.1 yards per rush to quarterbacks if you exclude kneel-downs. Seven QBs have at least 30 yards on the ground against the Texans. And remember, the Chiefs run game is far from a sure thing, so more will be on Mahomes' plate. And if the Texans pass rush continues its havoc from last week, Mahomes will have multiple unscheduled runs to help this over cash in.

In the four games Houston lost by 4 or more points, Mixon's had 14 or fewer attempts three times. One of those games was at Kansas City in Week 16. But the greater trend dates back to 2023 when Bobby Slowik was put in charge of this offense. In 15 losses under Slowik, a running back had 16 or more carries just four times, and all were one-score losses. We know the Chiefs are favored to win by nine-plus. Just three running backs had 16 attempts against the Chiefs this season, none had 17, and one of those three games happened when the Chiefs rested their starters in Week 18!

Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury, facing the best rush defense in the NFL on Saturday, and likely going to be in a game where his team is trailing. It's a bad formula for a player who has rushed for 57 or less yards in 6 of his last 9 games. I'd almost be surprised if he cracked the 50 yard mark and feel fairly confident in this under.
Something is missing from the Houston Texans that was there last season in their playoff run. Two games at the end of December that they looked like they weren't even close for primetime losing at Kansas City 27-19 and then Baltimore beat them in Texas 31-2. Then they came back and beat Tennessee and then swarmed the Chargers in the second half. Are they going to hang with the Chiefs who have been off for 3 weeks essentially? The Chiefs won and covered their last three games before losing to Denver. But this is a playoff and you got to take down Mahomes and I don't think the Texans are ready for that. It’s go-time for KC. Kansas City covers.

Joe Mixon erupted for a big performance during Wild Card Weekend against the Chargers. Mixon's 100+ yard performance was his best effort since breaking the century mark vs Jacksonville in early December. Now Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury that is becoming a bigger concern. He logged a limited practice on Wednesday and was a DNP the final session of the week. His rushing efficiency numbers have declined as the season's progressed now tasked with facing a + run stopping group and a nagging ankle injury this provides a good recipe to go under his total.

John Metchie III didn't play in the regular-season meeting, but he should have a substantial role Saturday. He plays primarily in the slot, where the Chiefs have given up the second-most catches (6.4 per game). Tank Dell is out, Robert Woods isn't practicing, and Nico Collins is going to be shadowed by Trent McDuffie with safety help. Metchie got eight targets last week against the Chargers, and Houston has been throwing more on early downs late in the season.

This is not an offense that wants to put it in CJ Stroud's hands for an entire game, but they may have no choice. Against good rush defenses, Joe Mixon has been largely ineffective and this Chiefs rush defense is quite good. With Mixon being held in check it will all rest on Stroud and a host of backup WRs (outside of Nico Collins). This will result in more passing volume than normal. Passing efficiency is a different question which is why I'm going with "Attempts" over "Completions." You can catch this number at FanDuel, but I'd be willing to play it at 34.5 if that's where your book has it.

The Chiefs have a clean bill of health for their first playoff game, including Jaylen Watson and Chamarri Conner practicing in full. That's going to make life difficult on the one element of the Houston starting receiver corps left standing. Even with Kansas City's secondary injuries, the Chiefs have allowed 83 yards to just four WRs all year (excluding Week 18). Collins was targeted 10 times in the first Chiefs game and only made it to 60 yards, and I'm surprised this number isn't at least in the 70s.

Patrick Mahomes has had a few weeks to rest his ankle after sustaining an injury in Week 15, and even playing through the issue he was able to rush for 33 yards on five carries against the Texans on the Saturday prior to Christmas, where he had one 12-yard carry in an easy win. Like many QBs, his rushing production jumps in the playoffs, but I think it's better to play his attempts Over in case end-game kneeldowns take the yardage under the total. He's had five carries in 10 of 18 career playoff games, so I love getting plus odds here.
Houston was a 3.5-point underdog for its Dec. 21 visit to Kansas City. In that game, the Texans trailed by one in the third quarter when Tank Dell suffered a gruesome injury. The injury derailed Houston's offense the rest of the way. Now the Texans have had time to adjust. I expect Kansas City to advance, but this spread is too high. The Chiefs have gone seven straight games without committing a turnover. Part of that is luck, which is due for regression. Look for KC to win a 27-20 type of game.

Travis Kelce has participated in 22 postseason games, including the Super Bowls. He has exceeded this number in 18 of those 22 contests, with an impressive streak of 13 consecutive games. That's hard to ignore. His postseason average is 86.5, while his regular season average is 74.3, demonstrating that he performs best in January and February.
I much prefer this first-half bet to the full game. Houston is 26-11 ATS in the first half under Demeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, including 14-4 ATS this season. (One loss, it should be noted, was at Kansas City where the Texans trailed 17-10). The Texans have been bad at making halftime adjustments but usually come out strong against elite teams (Bills, Lions). The Chiefs have not played a meaningful snap since Dec. 25 and could come out rusty.

Travis Kelce has eclipsed this yard line in 13 consecutive postseason games. Kelce who is the greatest pass catching Tight End in NFL history has routinely elevated his performance in the playoffs. Kelce has a career postseason average of 86.5 receiving yards and has 19 touchdowns in 22 playoff games. The Texans are a difficult matchup, but we're talking about Travis Kelce.

He should have thrown multiple picks last week and still looks shaky behind a suspect OL. Has thrown 9 picks in 7 games against winning teams now and 9 in his last 9 games and he threw two in his last trip to Arrowhead. Spags will be ready for him and the loss of Tank Dell will be felt big here. Stroud's home/road splits through two seasons is the tale of two different QBs.

It's the playoffs. Of course we're on this. Getting Hollywood Brown and D-Hop fully vested in this offense now, so Kelce should get a little more room to operate. Mahomes always feeds him in the postseason. He has 19 TDs in 19 playoff games, and hit this in 8 of the last 10 playoff games going back to 2021 (10 total TD in that span). Andy Reid trusts him in all kinds of ways on gadget plays which show up big this time of year.

It's the playoffs - Mahomes time. KC running game in worse shape than it's been entering the playoffs in quite some time. But good luck covering all of the new cogs on offense now that they are healthy at pass catcher. Mahomes has 31 passing TDs in 12 home playoff games and he is over this in 8 of the last 10 playoff games and 9 of the last 12 at home. Andy Reid with extra time to study this defense should unlock some new redzone wrinkles.
Team Injuries
