The Eagles end an arduous five-game stretch on the field with the team against which it began. Philly downed Dallas at home, the first of three consecutive outright wins before a beatdown against the 49ers. The ordeal has caught up with the Eagles, and they must cope with a rested opponent that makes the most of home-field advantage. The Cowboys' success at Jerry World, where they are perfect, explains an 8-2 ATS record as a favorite this season. Philly's defense has been dizzied by a pair of 400-yards-plus efforts by opponents. The Cowboys, averaging a league-best 32.3 points per game, surely are licking their chops.

The city is begging for it. And I'm not here to say that logic works for every team, but it does in Philadelphia. After a quiet night on the ground against the Niners, coupled with a loss, look for the Eagles to push the ground game heavy tonight. Jalen Hurts will be worrying about the pressure of Micah Parsons and could be looking to get rid of the ball early. In fact, the Eagles have had success on the ground when they run right at Parsons, forcing him to decide where to commit. Trouble comes when Parsons runs laterally, Swift should find success right at him.

This receiving yard number has dipped a bit, mostly on account of Dallas Goedert being back in the lineup. We know that when Jalen Hurts has his full compliment of pass catchers the target share decreases for DeVonta Smith, but in a game with a ton of scoring projected, I do think he'll get his fair share. If the Eagles want to win this game, they'll need to move it through the air and the Cowboy DBs take plenty of chances and get burned. Look for DeVonta to get loose a few times tonight and hit this over.

Rico Dowdle continues to see more snaps. On the season, he averages around 18% of the team's rushing yards, but more recently it's been up over 20%. Our simulation projects the Cowboys to have 100 rushing yards, so either percentage there should get him over. He has gone over this number in 3 of last 4 games. The time he went under was because he was busy racking up receiving yards. None the less, expect Dowdle to be a part of this Dallas game plan. We project him for 26 yards on the ground.

Took the Cowboys in the first meeting, a game in which they outplayed the Eagles and absolutely should have won in Philadelphia had it not been for a variety of circumstances I do not see repeating in Dallas. The Cowboys are more rested entering the game, and this is a tough situational spot for the Eagles going on the road after suffering the blowout loss to the 49ers. Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the NFL, but Dallas at home is a different animal this season (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS). The Cowboys since 2021 are also 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the prior week. The offense is healthy, the defense is feasting and Dallas should pull away in the second half.

Recent Cowboys-Eagles games have tended to be higher-scoring affairs and have in fact landed on the "over" side in six straight matchups, including last month's 28-23 Birds win in Philly. The number has increased a bit for the rematch but Dallas looks well capable of upholding its end of the bargain as Dak Prescott has enjoyed good success at home in his career vs. the Eagles. Note how many points the Cowboys have been scoring at home this season while going "over" 5-1 the first six at Arlington (41.5 ppg as host). Jalen Hurts will surely have the Birds in chase mode as this game is likely played in the 30s...or higher. Play Eagles-Cowboys "Over"

CeeDee Lamb has been putting up monster numbers. Over the last seven games, he has recorded at least 116 receiving yards five times. That included a Week 9 meeting against the Eagles in which he caught 11 passes for 191 yards. The Eagles have given up the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, which leaves Lamb with a favorable opportunity to hit this over.

The Cowboys can force their way into a tie for first place with a win, but my bet is points a-plenty. Dallas is 5-1 Over at home averaging, 41 points per game while allowing 15.8. The Eagles are 4-1 Over in their past five games and 3-0 Over in NFC East games.

Tony Pollard is facing an angry Eagles defense that just got humiliated by the San Francisco 49ers in Philadelphia. The Eagles are getting three key run defenders back for this game as well in Fletcher Cox, Zach Cunningham, and All-Pro Linebacker Shaq Leonard will be making his debut. Look for the Eagles to contain one of the least effective starting RBs in Tony Pollard.

We've seen Pollard play well for Fantasy over the past three games, but he didn't total more than 85 yards in two of them. In fact, he's been under 85 yards in 5 of his past 6 -- even against the Seahawks and the Panthers and the Giants -- and of course, the Eagles too. Philadelphia's defense is getting stronger -- linebacker Zach Cunningham is expected to play, as should new linebacker Shaquille Leonard. They'll shore up a linebacker corps that was totally overwhelmed last week by the 49ers. Pollard hasn't had many big plays lately while his efficiency and workload have fluctuated. I'd imagine he'll have a tough time against this defense, even in what figures to be a high-scoring game.

The Cowboys rolled up 406 yards in their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia, outgaining the Eagles by nearly 1 yard per play. Dallas' worst offensive performance at home this season came in a 30-10 Week 2 win over the Jets. Despite the positive injury report for Philly -- Dallas Goedert and Zach Cunningham are expected to return Sunday. night -- I like the Cowboys to cover for the sixth straight time when hosting the Eagles. Dallas had extra rest and the Eagles' brutal schedule seems to have finally caught up with them.

If Dallas scores 40+ at home again, I expect the Eagles to contribute a bit and get this game Over. The Cowboys score effortlessly at home and usually get a defensive touchdown as well. They’ve scored over 40 points in their last four home games and then scored a measly 38, 30, and 40 in their first three home games. The Cowboys know how it feels to get blasted by the 49ers as the Eagles did last week. Last season at Dallas it was the Cowboys 40-34. The last six meetings have also gone Over the total. I’m on the Over.

The Eagles got the breaks beat off them by the Niners in week 13 and SF’s particular brand of physicality saw nearly every team lose their matchup following week last season. The last head to head meeting between these teams was a close one in Philadelphia. However, Dallas is playing way too good at home not to lay the points here. The Cowboys are on a 14-game winning streak at home and averaging 41 ppg vs just 23 away. Eagles are banged up physically and emotionally, just a bad spot to have to go into Dallas and try to win.

These teams played to a 28-23 Eagles win in Philadelphia in Week 9 despite the Cowboys winning the yardage battle by more than 100. Two 70+ yard drives ended in no points to help limit Dallas scoring as they had their only game under 30 points since a Week 7 bye. At home, Dallas has topped 40 points in four straight, and the Eagles don't seem like the team that's going to stop them with their issues on the back end. The Eagles have given up more than 400 yards in four of their last five games, and that sets up for a lot of Dallas scoring even before you factor in the potential for a defensive score with Philly's mediocre sack and interception rate.

The Eagles rest time is much shorter, playing on the previous Sunday night against the 49ers. Philly also got beat up bad by San Francisco, an extremely physical team who took them to the woodshed. Jalen Hurts is banged up enough to generate some controversial takes about whether or not he should be playing. The Cowboys are 6-0 at home with a ridiculous +151 point differential on the season. They played the Eagles in a super tight game earlier in the year and should have won in Philly but for some bad late-game management. The Eagles defense has been struggling and Dak Prescott is playing outstanding, MVP-level football. That continues on Sunday night.

Ferguson was a big match-up issue for the Eagles a few weeks back at Philly and will be again Sunday. Only two teams have allowed more TDs to TEs than the Eagles this season and Philly allows an opposing passer rating of 123.7 throwing to tight ends, worst in the NFL. Ferguson has a TD in four of the last six and the pay off here is substantially better than Lamb.

They added a safety at the deadline and they added a LB last week but they aren't curing this issue overnight. We all saw what Kittle did to them last week and Ferguson had his best game of the season at Philly, catching 7 of 10 targets for 91 yards and a TD. He had six catches on eight targets for 77 yards last week.

We saw Lamb do whatever he wanted against Philly at Philly. We saw Deebo run wild on them in the slot last week. It's been a weekly issue. Lamb had 11 catches on 16 targets for 191 in the first game. He's way over this total in 5 of the last 7 games and in big games and big spots, he gets fed. Got a ton of targets early in the first meeting between these teams and very likely will again Sunday.

He just threw for 3 TDs against this defense, on the road at Philly no less. And we know how much better this Cowboys passing game is at home. He has 3 TDs passes in three of his last four games against the Eagles. Dak's TD passes in his last four home games: 3, 4, 4, 4. And he's facing a secondary that has given up 27 passing TDs, 31st in the NFL. And Dak has all of his weapons in good form. And the Cowboys still don't look very good or effective trying to score the ball on the ground, and the Eagles have been far better defending the run overall, and in the redzone. Dak pads his MVP case here.

... or until it starts opening around -200. But we'll still take it here. He has a rushing TD in 7 of the last 8 games and 9 of the last 12 and this has cashed four games in a row. He did it against Dallas the last time around and they love to run the tush push for him and now it's like from 2.5 yards out and not just the goal line.

Usually would wait but can't sleep as this flu bug won't leave me alone so may as well pick what we can now. An Eagles fan and big SportsLine guy I trust in Philly named Robert told me over and over again that the Iggles were in a really bad spot last Sunday and boy was he right (I didn't listen). Seems much, much worse of a spot here (which he mentioned). You can't blame the Eagles for being worn down/beaten up after playing the Chiefs, Bills and 49ers in three straight weeks. Dallas is healthy and rested and winning is the only shot it has of a home playoff game. I'm tempted to play more than 1 unit but not this early.

This is gonna rise through the week as this standalone game approaches. Even facing better versions of this Eagles defense in recent years, here is Cowboys scoring at home in last 4 games vs PHI with Dak: 40, 41, 37, 29. Dallas scoring at home this season: 41, 45, 49, 43, 38, 30. Rolled over 400 yards on Eagles in first meeting. Dak has 20 TD- 2 INT in his last six games and Eagles have no answers for Lamb and Ferguson in the slot. Throw in a potential pick six with Bland and a strong kicking game and factor in Eagles injuries and fatigue (Cowboys playing on extra rest) and I see this game played in over 54 points.

Dallas has scored at least 30 points at home in all 6 games at Jerry's World, and topped 38 in 5 straight. Eagles D is reeling some amid a brutal gauntlet of games, and DAL is on extra rest. Even holding Cowboys to 30 might be a tall task. Dak has 3 passing TDs or more in 3 of last 4 at home vs PHI. So can Jalen Hurts get us to 23? Eagles scored 28 vs DAL at home despite being held under 300 yards and running the ball 33 times. Even with heavy run load they can hit big pass plays on this overrated Dallas defense. They combined for 51 at PHI leaving points on table. We can get a FG more Sun.