2 Expert Picks
Is this a vintage Leon Rice Boise edition? ...
The visitors have not played in a week and must tip off at 11 p.m. (CT) . . .
Past Picks
Dayton is 7-0 SU at home where they haven’t really been tested. The Golden Eagles are playing only their third road game of the season where they’re shooting less than 50% inside the arc. The Flyers are shooting 60% inside the arc at home and protect the ball very well. Marquette is a well-balanced team but aren’t the strongest shooting team from beyond the arc. The Flyers have experienced guards that defend the perimeter well along with a strong homecourt. Dayton has won 23 straight in their building.
I think the wrong team is favored here and won't be surprised if it swaps by tip-off. Dayton is a little undervalued right now and while I like Marquette, I think they are a better bet at home or as underdogs. Marquette thrives at creating turnovers and scoring in transition but Dayton doesn't turn the ball over. The Flyers rank ninth in turnover percentage and 68th in allowing potential quick points off steals. Dayton is one of the most experienced teams in CBB and if the Flyers limit mistakes on Saturday, I think they get the win at home.
The Vols will find out what it's like wearing the big target of No. 1, facing a real challenge to its ranking tonight in Champaign-Urbana. The Fighting Illini are no wallflowers and will think their 86 ppg offense can keep paces. Their new weapon worth watching is 6-8 frosh Kasparas Jakucionis (15.9 ppg), who has scored 20+ each of the past four games and is hitting better than 44% of his triples, spreading out the floor nicely for Brad Underwood's offense. No one, however, has yet slowed UT, scoring better than 82 ppg while hitting better than 52% from the floor, with North Florida transfer G Chaz Lanier (19.1 ppg) turning into a portal jackpot for Rick Barnes. Play Tennessee-Illinois Over
Finishing up this play and then I went and looked at our model before submit and I see Thomas Casale is also on this, so that obviously makes me feel more confident. And the line has risen a bit since he played it, which doesn't surprise me. Our model has the Gamecocks by 7. Jax State is among the national leaders in fewest fouls (which absolutely matters at home, where clubs usually get the benefit of whistles anyways) and defensive rebounding. Tough trip for Utah Valley (1-4 away) -- can't exactly fly direct from Orem to Alabama; the Wolverines may have taken covered wagons and stopped at the Four Sixes Ranch (say hi to Teeter) -- and ahead of its conference opener on Tuesday.
I like Jacksonville State in this spot. Utah Valley had a nice road win over Murray State early in the season but the Wolverines lost their last four games away from home by an average of 15 points. Jacksonville State comes in 5-4 but the Gamecocks lost three tight games to Toledo, James Madison and South Alabama by a total of 10 points on neutral/away courts. Jacksonville State is a strong defensive rebounding team and ranks 31st in 2-point field goal percentage defense. They struggle defending the perimeter but shooting threes isn't Utah Valley's strength. Good matchup for Jax State. I took the ML here but also like the Gamecocks on the spread at -3 or less.
SCU's 3-point accuracy has steadily been climbing in recent weeks, due in part to boomerang transfer Carlos Stewart. In his last four, Stewart has connected on 12 of 21 triples (57%), scoring at a 17.3 pg clip across that span while his overall shooting is a sizzling 63.2% (24 of 38)..what Herb Sendek envisioned when Stewart transferred back from LSU. Bradley has started quick at 8-1 but the schedule has not been a challenge, and note the one matchup vs. a WCC foe (Washington State, playing in the loop this season and next) was a resounding defeat for the Braves. Lee's Family Forum is also familiar territory for the Broncos, who faced Arizona State here in Henderson five weeks ago. Play Santa Clara (at Henderson)
Northern Arizona has the better record then Pepperdine but has had issues on the road in first halves. They dug themselves steep deficits against Eastern Michigan and Houston Christian, and lost their last road game against Oral Roberts. Look for NAU to correct those issues with their veteran lineup led by Carson Towt and Trent McLaughlin.
NJIT has one of the worst records on today’s big slate in college basketball at 2-10. They failed in their last matchup as a trendy underdog against Delaware State. Yet, they have been competitive even in their losses. They had a three point loss to Cleveland State, hung around Seton Hall, and did defeat Navy two games ago. Take the home underdog here in NJIT.
Arizona is playing at the Footprint Center tomorrow in Phoenix and they're somehow favored over UCLA who is 8-1 and 6-3 against the spread. It's been a disappointing year for Arizona so far at 4-4 and 3-5 against the spread but what they have done is gone over the total at 6-2. Arizona averages 87 points per game but UCLA is the number one ranked defensive team allowing 55 points per game. Two differing styles and one team is on the skids. But I think Arizona enforces their will which is some fast pace. Over is the play.
Syracuse is 5-0 SU at home this season. The Hoyas are off a loss in their first true road game at West Virginia. Syracuse has lost each game they’ve played against an above average defense and have really struggled from the free throw line, shooting less than 70% on the year. Neither team can shoot the three well, but the Hoyas have stepped up their defense over the last three games, holding their opponents to less than 70 points per game. No JJ Starling for Syracuse and the Hoyas are the more consistent team from the stripe as if it comes down to free throws based off the line.
Great home team vs bad road team. The Buffs' point differential at home is +15, and they are 7-0 at home this season. They are 15-11 ATS at home since last season and should have no problem against a South Dakota St defense that is not traveling well. The Sportsline Model makes it an 18-point win.
Probably my only play today in anything -- was gonna just take the whole night off after a not-great Thursday but the chica mentioned something about it being a "Wicked" night. I said: "Wanna bet?" So I'm gonna as that's my out. "Work." Weber State is ranked about 80 spots higher by KenPom. WSU is 3-0 when holding opponents under 70 points and 1-6 when allowing 70 or more points in a game. Utah Tech is among the nation's worst offensive teams at 67.2 PPG.
Indiana has been playing some better basketball in the last couple of weeks, logging double-digit wins against Providence and Minnesota and finally starting to find some consistency with their performances. But one thing they have not done, all season, is play in a true road environment. Fred Hoiberg and the Huskers went undefeated at home in Big Ten play last year, and I think one of the better home court advantages in the conference makes a difference again here on a Friday night.