This is a must win game for Sean Miller's Texas team, who averages slightly under 85 points per game. The Longhorns have played 13 consecutive games where the totals have reached 146 or more points. Ole Miss averages 75.3 points per game and gives up 75.9 PPG. I see this as an 82-73 type of game, giving us some cushion to the over line.
NC State needs at least one win BADLY to secure an NCAA Tournament bid after losing their final four games of the regular season. Will Wade's team averaged 83.5 points per game in the regular season and will need to control the pace in Wednesday's ACC Tournament opener. 15 of the Wolfpack's last 16 games have gone over this number, and while Pitt wants to ugly-up the game, I don't think it will happen. NC State breaks 80 and this total ends up in the 150s.
A late night special for those of you who, like me, are out west. Idaho has beaten Eastern Washington twice this year, by three and four points. So then how on DK do the Eagles (+235) have lower Big Sky championship odds than the Vandals (+270)? Is it a mistake on their part or do they agree with me that beating a team three times in the same season is extra difficult? EWU has won 9 of 10, with their only loss to Idaho. I think they avenge that defeat tonight with a close win, advancing to the conference title game in the process.
This America East semifinal looks like a complete mismatch, considering UMBC won both matchups this season by 23 and 24 points. The Retrievers have won 10 straight games and have covered in nine of them. I think they put this game away in the second half and win once again by double-digits.
It's been a rough last few days of picks after a hot streak last week, so time to turn things around. Oregon's Dana Altman is a fantastic tournament coach - I saw it firsthand in Las Vegas more than a few times for the Pac-12 Tournament. His team has stunk this season but has covered in 4 of their last 5 games, while Maryland has lost their last four games outright. The Ducks won by 10 in this matchup on the road in January and I expect at least a 5+ point victory in Chicago on Tuesday.
We see this every March - a few teams get ridiculously hot and become shock winners of their conference tournaments. But what's happening with Georgia Southern is on another level. This is their sixth game in six days, now their fifth as an underdog. While I have nothing against Troy here in the Sun Belt Championship Game, the Eagles may be a team of destiny. Getting 6.5-points is enough for me to take the plunge, while at the same time sprinkling the money line.
If you're like me, you're going to want some action on this early game from the SWAC Tournament, so let's take a shot. First of all, these two teams absolutely stink. Alcorn State has a bottom-eight defense in America, surrendering over 81 points per game, while Alabama State is 274th, giving up more than 77 PPG. Just based on those defensive stats alone, I'm going to take a shot at the over. This will be the first leg of hopefully a few successful Monday parlays for us.
In the Summit League Championship Game, North Dakota State gets somewhat of a gift here in that their in-state rivals took out St. Thomas, who beat them by 22 in February. Instead, the Bison face in-state rivals North Dakota, who they beat by 17 and 33 points this season. NDSU has the third best offense and the best defense in the conference, and I think they advance to the NCAA Tournament by 15+ points tonight.
Merrimack is finally eligible for the NCAA Tournament after a four year waiting period and I don't think it will miss its opportunity. At +135 odds currently to win the MAAC, I would recommend that bet over this one, but I'm happy to still play both. The Warriors beat Marist by 13 and 25 points this season, and enter this contest having won 10 of their last 11 games. This game will be U-G-L-Y and it wouldn't surprise me if Merrimack doesn't come close to scoring 65 points as both teams are stout defensively. But I like the Warriors to advance to the conference championship game by nearly 10 points.
Since losing to North Carolina improbably a month ago, the Blue Devils are 7-0 with an average victory margin of more than 24 points per game. Now UNC's best player, Caleb Wilson, has been ruled out for the season so I don't expect the Tar Heels to win too many more games. Expect Duke to cruise in a revenge spot, I'll say by 20+ points.
Enough with this "ASU is on the bubble talk." No they aren't. Bobby Hurley's team is 1-7 in Big 12 road games with their only win being at a bad Utah team. The Cyclones have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but look for them to put on a show on Senior Day. They are 15-1 at home, with 12 of those wins being decided by double digits. Iowa State 79, ASU 61.
Let's head to the Summit League Tournament and play the Denver / North Dakota over. The previous two matchups this season posted totals of 177 and 179, which isn't necessarily a surprise since DU is one of the best Over teams in the country. With a 13-4 record to the Over in away / neutral site games, I'll roll with another high scoring affair involving the Pioneers. This one should be played in at least the 80s for both teams.
In six Big Ten home games not against Michigan or Illinois, Michigan State is surrendering only 57.3 points per game to their opponents. Rutgers is worst in the conference in scoring, so expecting them to top the low-60s in points seems overly optimistic. These teams played an 88-79 overtime thriller in late-January but this one will be quite the opposite. Michigan State 76, Rutgers 58.
In browsing through Wednesday's games, let's go to the Summit League Conference Tournament and bet the same angle I have in the last week. Kansas City is 0-14 straight up and against the spread since January 8th, including a 24 point home loss to Oral Roberts last Saturday (which I also gave out on the site). Meanwhile, ORU has won three straight games, the last two by 20+ points, and could be a longshot sleeper in their conference tournament. I would be surprised if this wasn't another double-digit blowout.
Since beating then-undefeated Arizona on February 9th, Kansas has alternated double-digit point losses with double-digit point wins. With victories over ASU and Kansas State, the Jayhawks will secure an extra day off in the Big 12 Tournament. I'm not sure how ASU will be able to slow down Darryn Peterson, if he feels like playing hard on Tuesday night. Either way, I'll predict another double-digit Kansas victory in what should be coach Bobby Hurley's last home game in Tempe.