Eric's Picks (1 Live)
What an awesome game this should be between two National Championship contenders! My Wildcats haven't surrendered more than 68 points in regulation to a visiting team in their last six home games. Meanwhile, 6 of Iowa State's 8 conference road games have hit the under. I expect this game to be close between two excellent defensive teams surrendering well below 70 points per game. Prediction: Arizona 71, Iowa State 68. If healthy, there is no excuse for my alma mater's basketball team not to make the Final Four this year!
Florida Atlantic is averaging 79.9 points per game and each of their eight conference home games have reached at least 150 total points. Meanwhile, Charlotte, who has covered in three straight games, has allowed at least 77 total points in 4 of their last 5 games. I think the Owls hit at least their season average, while the 49ers score around 70 to give us some cushion to the over.
Jumping on this line early as I wouldn't be surprised if the Gaels turned the favorite as the game gets closer. St. Mary's is 16-0 at home this season, is on a seven game winning streak, and will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament. Since 2024, Randy Bennett's team has beaten Mark Few and the 'Zags 4 of the last 7 times they've played. With a raucous crowd on Senior Day in Moraga, I think the Gaels win this game by 5-7 points.
Oral Roberts is on a heater! Forget that they're 8-22, they've actually won two games in a row, having beaten South Dakota and Denver at home. Never mind the fact that they haven't won a road game yet, but they're facing a Kansas City team who has lost 13 straight games, both straight up and against the spread. This is a fade of UMKC and nothing more. One way or the other, something is going to give in this dreadful matchup to end the regular season.
It's one thing to be 4-24 and on a 12 game losing streak as Kansas City is, but the truth is that they haven't covered in any of those 12 games. KenPom ranks the Roos 355th, 11th worst in the country, but it's hard to imagine that this sad team would beat anyone below them. At 13-16, South Dakota State isn't all that great, but they did beat UMKC by 28 in mid-January. Expect another 20+ point blowout as we'll continue to ride the trend of fading Kansas City.
Quite simply, Washington State doesn't win on the road. They've only beaten Chaminade (DII team) and a bad Portland squad on the road in 11 trips away from Pullman this year. In the teams' early-January matchup, LMU rallied from a ten point second half deficit to take the lead with under a minute to play, before losing by two in heartbreaking fashion on the road. This time though, the Lions will be out for revenge in a battle of disappointing WCC teams and should relish playing a home game for the first time in nearly three weeks. Loyola Marymount 77, Washington State 72.
A late night special for those of us who live out west. Oregon is 1-7 at home in the Big Ten, with their only win over a bad Penn State team. In addition, each of those seven home losses has been by at least five points. The Badgers have two of the more impressive road wins on the season - at Michigan and at Illinois. They won't be phased, even by the later start time, in Eugene. Wisconsin 81, Oregon 69.
I'm jumping on this total early as I anticipate it drops into the upper 130s by Saturday. Houston is surrendering less than 62 points per game this season and has only given up more than 65 points at home one time this year (vs. ASU in a blowout). Arizona is without their second leading scorer Koa Peat and will struggle to generate consistent offense against the elite Cougars defense. While I still believe my Wildcats are a Final Four team, Saturday likely won't be their day for success. I see something like a 73-62 final score and would feel comfortable playing this line down to 137.5.
Texas Tech just lost their leading scorer, J.T. Toppin, for the season and I expect them to lean on their defense going forward. In fact, in their last five games, the Red Raiders have surrendered an average of 60.8 points in regulation and they haven't broken 80 points themselves. Kansas State might have shown something against Baylor in their first game without fired coach Jerome Tang, but I would be mildly surprised if they scored 70 on Saturday. Give me Texas Tech 79-63.
The notion that a team could possibly go undefeated in the regular season and not make the NCAA Tournament is ludicrous to me. Sure, Miami's schedule is weak, but their fate shouldn't be determined on a fluky conference tournament if they lose even just one time in the regular season. They are 101 spots ahead of Bowling Green in the NET Rankings and already beat them by 10 earlier this season. I would be surprised if this wasn't another double-digit win for a team who is 17-6 ATS this season.
Betting the over in High Point games has been a profitable venture for most of the season, as they're 17-8 to the good in that category. In fact, 8 of their last 10 games have seen 158 or more total points scored. Additionally, five of the last six UNC Asheville road games have reached at least 152 total points. High Point won 87-69 in January and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar score again on Thursday night.
Both teams are going through it injury-wise right now: BYU lost star guard Richie Saunders for the season (ACL), while Arizona is without top freshman forward Koa Peat (lower leg) and bench contributor Dwayne Aristode (illness). With the Wildcats being down to essentially six contributable players for this matchup, I still think they win, but in single digits. My alma mater gets back on track after consecutive losses but it'll be far from a blowout. Wildcats 79, Cougars 72.
The Hurricanes average 89.9 points per game at home and have hit the over in 11 of 14 games at Watsco Center. Meanwhile, 5 of 6 Hokies road games in ACC play have seen totals of 150+ points. I expect both teams to score in at least the mid-70s, but I'll predict Miami a bit higher. Hurricanes 84, Hokies 76.
I think it's fairly safe to say that Purdue cannot make this game a track meet and beat Michigan. The Boilermakers need to ugly it up and hold Michigan well below 80 to have a big chance. Both teams are giving up less than 69 points per game so don't obviously assume a high-scoring game. Michigan has given up 72 or less points in 20 of last 23 games, while Purdue has given up 73 or less points in 18 of last 21 games. Low-scoring and down-to-the-wire. Wolverines 73, Boilermakers 71.