I'm still stinging after watching what Michigan did to my Arizona team on Saturday night. The 2025-26 Wolverines just might be an all-timer of a team. But UConn's Dan Hurley is the best coach in college basketball and is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet Sixteen onward. I just can't be confident in a spread pick on the game. Instead, I'll be investing in the total and likely going against the public. I know that Michigan has scored 90+ points in all five tournament games, but I believe Dan Hurley finds a way to scheme a much slower pace to this contest. Also, dating back to 2017, National Championship unders are 6-2. Michigan 74, UConn 67.

I can't let my Final Four pick of Arizona be the last college basketball pick I make on the site this season. So let's look at the total in this Crown Championship Game. Oklahoma games have been over this total in 34 of 36 games in 2025-26. They have averaged nearly 83 points per game and surrendered 77. On the other side, West Virginia games are usually painful to watch but both in this tournament have ended in the upper-150s. Look for the Sooners to dictate the pace with the Mountaineers having to play catch up. I think this ends up in the 140s at minimum.

Do you really think I was going to submit a pick against my beloved Wildcats? Sadly, I won't be in Indianapolis at the Final Four but maybe that's a good thing for their chances. The last time I saw Arizona play in person was in February against Texas Tech, a 78-75 OT loss. Since then, the Wildcats are 13-0 including a win over Purdue in the Elite Eight. That's the same Boilermakers team who all-but-dominated Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. Ignore the Tommy Lloyd-to-UNC rumors, this Wildcats team is focused and ready for their moment. Either way, the winner of this epic matchup will go on to win the National Championship. And that will be Arizona by the thinnest of margins, 82-79.

I think the wrong team is favored here. UConn already won this matchup by 13 in November and enters off one of the most stunning victories any of us have ever seen. Tarris Reed Jr. has been an absolute beast down low and picking against Dan Hurley in the Tournament is always a losing idea. He's now 14-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, which is truly incredible. With that said, the Huskies have encountered a much more difficult path than the Fighting Illini and I also believe they're the better team top to bottom. Like the last matchup, I'm not sure this game will be all that close. UConn 74, Illinois 65.

Maybe it's a mistake to keep fading Duke but I plan on doing so. Though they rallied late against St. John's, the Red Storm registered a fairly easy cover (+6.5). Now Duke faces the best tournament coach in recent memory, Dan Hurley, who is 13-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward. I see this as a one possession game either way so I believe there's value in taking the points here. UConn is veteran-laden and has the size to match up with Duke inside. I'll also be sprinkling the Huskies on the money line.

As SportsLine's resident Arizona alum and diehard, I have to make a pick on this Elite Eight matchup, don't I? Purdue is really good - they're efficient on offense and can stifle teams defensively. But my Wildcats are on a mission to make the Final Four (and beyond) for the first time since 2001. I expect both teams to slow their offenses down a bit from what we saw in the last round and the only reason I think this total gets close-ish to the number is because of free throws at the end. Not playing this for a full unit just in case and if you can buy the number up a few points, don't hesitate. Arizona 77, Purdue 71.

Illinois' offense is potent, averaging more than 84 points per game this season. Brad Underwood's team also scored at least 70 points in 24 straight games before the offensive slugfest against an elite Houston defense in the Sweet Sixteen. In the meantime, 8 of the last 10 Iowa games have gone over this total. These two teams combined for 144 in January's road victory by the Fighting Illini. My prediction isn't far off from that contest: Illinois 77, Iowa 68 with the over hitting fairly comfortably.

Early in the season, betting Michigan State unders was a profitable activity. Since then, 17 of the last 19 Spartans games have reached 139 total points or higher. Both teams average between 77 and 80 points per game and while parts of this contest may be a slugfest, I could see a barrage of late free throws pushing this into the 140s. Give me UConn to win, 73-68.

Both of these teams have only lost one game to date in 2026. St. John's relies on a stout defense, holding five of its last seven opponents to 65 points or less. Duke has shown vulnerability in this tournament, with 16 seed Siena pushing them to the max in Round 1. The Red Storm have one of the greatest college basketball coaches of all-time in Rick Pitino and I suspect he will outsmart Jon Scheyer in this one. Not only do I think St. John's covers the 6.5 points, I think it wins outright. I also lean towards the Under. St. John's 68, Duke 65.

I may be strongly biased with this pick but Arkansas isn't a matchup that overly concerns me for my Wildcats (Purdue might though in the Elite Eight). The Razorbacks have benefitted lately from easy matchups, with 11 of their last 12 wins against then-unranked teams. The Razorbacks struggled against High Point, a team I thought Arkansas would crush by 15+ points. While freshman star Darius Acuff Jr. may score 30, I don't think John Calipari's team will have an answer for Arizona's potent offense. With the crowd very likely being largely in favor of the Wildcats in San Jose, Arizona advances to the Elite Eight by double-digits, 89-76.

There's nothing more as an Arizona fan that I would like to see than Sean Miller vs. his former team with a spot at the Final Four on the line. But it's not gonna happen. I think Purdue rolls on Thursday behind an efficient offense and the fact that Texas' three wins in this tournament were against teams that had been declining in recent months. Texas is 2-7 when scoring less than 74 points, while Purdue hasn't given up 74 or more points in 15 of their last 21 games. I think this game is a no-contest result from the early stages - something like 81-65 Boilermakers.

This is a battle of two teams going in different directions. Oklahoma State lost 8 of its last 11 before a close win over Davidson in the first round of the NIT. Meanwhile, Wichita State has won 10 of its last 12 games heading into Sunday's second round matchup. The Shockers also went 7-4 in true road games this year, a surprising record that gives me more confidence in this matchup. Not only do I think they cover the spread, but I'll be sprinkling Wichita State outright as well.

I see this game in the 60s and 70s as compared to the 80s. Arizona surrenders 68.5 points per game, while Utah State is at 70.5 PPG allowed. With neither team being a three point shooting machine, I expect tough interior player and slower offenses than we saw from both teams on Friday. But I'm confident my Wildcats hold the line and advance to the Sweet 16. Arizona 78, Utah State 67.

This is a battle of two defensive-minded teams who surrender less than 70 points per game on average. St. John's has given up 72 or less in 11 straight games, while Kansas has held 11 of its last 18 opponents to 70 points or less. This feels like a game which will be decided by no more than two or three possessions and will slow to a crawl in the final five minutes. I like the way St. John's has played of late more so than Kansas and will pick them on Sunday afternoon, 71-67.

Who doesn't love to play Overs, especially when it comes to Wake Forest home games? If you think I'm crazy with that last part, check out this stat: 10 of the last 11 Wake home games have seen totals of 150+ points. Illinois State has only faced one other Power 4 conference team this season, USC, who scored 87 on them in November. I believe this game is played in at least the mid-to-upper 70s and ends up closer to 160 total points than 150.