Miami is playing very close to home, as in 59 minutes away...

It's the First Four of the NCAA Tournament from Dayton, Ohio, featuring NC State and Texas. The Longhorns won the last meeting 102-97 on November 26th, and I'm thinking the over might be the way to go again here. I made the total 172; the send-out was 162.5, and it's down to 158.5, making it appear I have almost 14 points of value. Neither team is playing their best brand of basketball, with Texas winning only one of their last six and NC State winning twice in their last nine. But for the season, both teams were over the total squads, with Texas going 19-12 to the over and NC State 21-12 to the over. Just the over for me here.

Stephen F. Austin finished tops in the Southland Conference at 20-2 and finished the season at 28-5, but hello N.I.T. This is a team that plays one of the best perimeter defenses in the nation, allowing only 30% from 3-point range and also allowing only 65.9 points a game. They're going to give Tulsa all kinds of trouble regarding the spread, but I think Tulsa is going to force the issue on the scoring end, making the game go over. Tulsa averages 85.6 points per game while making 38.8% of its 3-point shots, which ranks 11th nationally. Tulsa forced the pace over in 21 of their 31 lined games. Just the over on this one.

Arkansas and Vanderbilt meet in the SEC Championship game, and I think it's going to be a high-scoring game. I like this game over the total of 166.5, considering seven of their last eight meetings have gone over. Arkansas has won the last three meetings, scoring 90 points or more in all of them. Arkansas wants to run fast all the time, but so does Vanderbilt. The Commodores have gone over in five of their last six games, including shutting the Gators down in their last game. Arkansas plays at a fast pace but shoots a smart 50% from the field and 38.1% from three-point range. Over is the play.

Connecticut and St. John's are playing in the Big East Championship game in Madison Square Garden, meeting for the third time this season. St. John's won the first meeting at home on February 6th, and Connecticut returned the favor on February 25th, but Connecticut put a beatdown on St. John's 72-40, staying under the total of 144.5. St. John's has won their last five games since then, covering four of them. They've had their best success by playing a controlled, slow-down pace, keeping eight of their last nine games under the total. Why change now at the most critical junction of their season? They've stayed under 20 of their 33 games this season. I like them to stay under today.

It's the semi-finals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, with Purdue a 7.5-point favorite against UCLA. This will be the second meeting of the season between the two schools, with UCLA winning 69-67 in Los Angeles as a 5.5-point underdog. Purdue played well that day with only seven turnovers, but UCLA shot 57% from the field to win. Purdue won and covered yesterday against Nebraska, ending a 0-5 ATS run. They've lost four of their last eight games. UCLA is playing its best basketball of the season and comes off a win over Michigan State. UCLA to cover.

It's Vanderbilt and Florida in the semi-finals of the Southeastern Conference tournament at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Florida has won and covered the past two meetings, with both going over the total, but Florida has gone under 20 of their games this season. They might not be as strong as their national championship team from last season, but they're pretty close and sharp. They know how to score, get to the free-throw line, and win. They're getting better each week as a cohesive unit that just won the SEC with a 16-2 record. They have an active streak of 12 wins in a row. Florida to cover.

It's the semi-finals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament from Kansas City, Missouri, between Iowa State and Arizona. The Wildcats have only lost twice this season and have a seven-game win streak going that includes a 73-57 win over Iowa State as 6.5-point favorites two weeks ago. Now the number is 4.5 on a neutral court, a manageable proposition for Arizona, considering they've been double-digit favorites for most of their games. Arizona travels well with 9 wins in away games, but what I like most is Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd sticking to his Gonzaga roots and teachings with his offense shooting 50.2% and a defense that only allows 38.8%. It's the repetitive technique that keeps Arizona winning. They win this one, too.

NC State and Virginia hook up in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament at Charlotte. Virginia has won and covered the last three meetings including two this season in which NC State was held to only 61 points. Both games stayed under. Virginia was 27-4 this season and had eight wins on the road. They're going to handle NC State as they have the last three meetings with that defense that allows only 39.7 shooting from the field. Virginia to win by 10 or more.

Fordham and George Washington play in the second round of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament from Pittsburgh. Fordham beat GW 79-65 on January 31st as an 11.5-point underdog staying under the total of 150.5. In Fordham's last game they beat Rhode Island 61-49 and stayed under the total of 136.5. That makes 21 unders on the season for Fordham which is second in college basketball hitting at 75%. This total is sitting at 140.5 and I was thinking 130 is more proper. Just the under.

Miami-Ohio plays Massachusetts in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament in Cleveland. Miami struggled down the stretch, barely winning its last three games. No covers in the last three, but this is a team that figured out how to win 31 out of 31, covering 19, and winning 14 games on the road. They beat UMass on their own floor 86-77 as a 2.5-point favorite on February 17th. UMass is not in a good spot right now, winning once in their last seven games and going 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Miami is the number one shooting team in the nation, hitting 52.6% of their shots, and they're also 8th nationally, hitting 39.3% of their 3-point shots. Miami covers.

It's the first round of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament from Pittsburgh, with Loyola-Chicago and Richmond playing, and I think I have 10 points of value on the under. I made the total 133, and the sendout was 143.5. The two teams played on February 28th, with Loyola winning 69-66, staying under 146.5. Loyola has stayed under in their last six games and covered the last three games. Richmond has stayed under in four of their last six games. Both teams stayed under the total 17 games each. Just the under.

Oklahoma State and Colorado play the last game of the day in the first round of the Big 12 conference tournament at Kansas City. I think there's going to be a lot of points scored in this game, a lot more than the total suggests, 164. I was thinking the total should be closer to 180. Neither team plays particularly good defense, with Colorado allowing 46.3% shooting. OSU scores 83.9 points per game while Colorado allows 79 points per game. OSU also allows 82.5 a game. OSU has gone over the total in their last four games, and Colorado has gone over the total in their last three. Just the over.

Maryland and Oregon play the first game of the Big Ten conference tournament at the United Center in Chicago. These are two of the bottom three teams in the conference, with Oregon winning five conference games and Maryland only four games. Oregon covered only 12 games on the year, and Maryland 14. Oregon has won the last two meetings over the last two seasons. Maryland's highlight over the last month was winning at Minnesota, beating Iowa and Washington while covering six of their last nine games. Neither team shoots very well. I'm going to take the points. Maryland to cover.

Cincinnati has won its last two meetings with Utah, and the Utes are on a five-game losing streak and didn't cover any of them. Just 10 wins on the season and 13 covers. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has won six of its last eight, including wins against BYU and Kansas as 8.5-point dogs. They beat Utah on February 15th, but they didn't cover the 12.5-point spread. My reason for liking Cincinnati to cover the spread is that they're on the brink of not making the tournament, forecasted to be one of the last eight teams out. Cincinnati's defense will see what is in store for them and take control of this moment. Cincinnati to cover.