Put yourself in Coach Dan Hurley's position. He's seen what's happening in the tournament with Michigan scoring 90 points or more against its opponents. He has to strategize for it, and I think he's going to figure out a way not to play their game. His team allowed an average of 65.1 points per game this season. He should be prepared and ready to execute. Michigan was not covering heading into the Tournament and scored 72 or less against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Hold them down; it can be done. Duke beat them 68-63 in February. Hurley carries championships as badges on his sports coat. Michigan under 75.5, and Connecticut also has a chance to win.
Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.
Michigan shot 51.1% from the field while holding opponents to 38.4%, which ranks No. 1 in the nation. Michigan has taken its game up a notch, with everybody elevating their play to make them look like they did in November and December, when they were blowing everybody out. That team is back, and they have scored 90 points or more in all four of their tournament games. Consistency. They’ll score at least 80 against Arizona.
I'm looking at the total in the first Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis between Illinois and Connecticut. The total shows 139.5, while I made the total 134. Illinois scores a lot of points, but they can play slow-down ball as well and have stayed under their last three, making it 22 for the season. Connecticut has stayed under in four of its last six games and 20 overall on the season. The under.
The Crown Tournament is an 8-team, 5-day tournament that features an NIL price pool of $500,000. It tips off with Oklahoma and Colorado in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Arena. Oklahoma opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and it's up to 9.5 because Colorado lost its three leading scorers to the transfer portal. This is a Buffaloes squad that started 12-3 and finished 17-15. It's been over 2 weeks since the teams last played, but Oklahoma started figuring things out at the end of the year, covering their last seven games, winning six of them. They finished the year 19-15 and were one of the last cuts to miss the NCAA’s. Oklahoma to win by 10 or more.
Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over Tennessee in the Elite 8 matchup at the United Center in Chicago, with the winner going to the Final Four. Michigan has turned it up a notch since losing the Big Ten championship game to Purdue, and they’ve scored 90 points or more in all three games since. They look like their former selves from November and December when they were destroying teams nightly. Michigan has won and covered the last three meetings with Tennessee. Tennessee has a great story in the tournament, but the fact remains that they lost four out of their last six games before the tournament started. Michigan has the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 38.6 shooting. Michigan covers.
Purdue faces Arizona in the Elite 8 in San Jose, and Arizona is up to a 6.5-point favorite in this game. Arizona has won 12 games in a row since it lost its only two games of the year in back-to-back fashion to Texas Tech and Kansas. Arizona went 35-2, covering 22 games. It's a formidable opponent for Purdue to tackle, but I think they can. Purdue has had three meetings with Arizona since 2007 and won all three, the last time in 2023. Purdue has won seven straight games, including beating Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue has 19.7 assists per game and is No. 1 in the nation in assist-to-turnover margin. Purdue wins outright.
It's Alabama and Michigan playing in the Sweet 16 at the United Center in Chicago, and I think Michigan has caught its second wind. In their first two games of the tournament, they scored 101 points and 95 points, giving everyone visions of their play in November and December when they were putting 100 on everyone. I think the loss to Purdue in the Big Ten championship game gave them a chance to refocus on what Michigan basketball is about. First off, they have the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 38.7 shooting, and secondly, they have the No. 6 offense in the nation, shooting 51.1%. Alabama had a puzzling loss to Mississippi in the SEC tournament as an 11.5-point favorite. Michigan covers.
I think the Houston-Illinois total is worth exploring at 140, since I made the number 132. Houston is third in the nation, allowing only 62.2 points per game, and since January 31st, they've gone under 11 times and over only five times. Great defense wins games. Coach Kelvin Sampson has been preaching defense as a means to get back to the Final Four, and this will be a big test for them, but I think they'll succeed and keep this game under.
Third-seeded Illinois meets second-seeded Houston in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, and the game is being played in Houston. The Cougars get some home cooking. Kelvin Sampson's team is playing its best defense of the season, holding opponents to 39.5% shooting and only 20.7 made field goals per game, which is tops in the nation. Illinois makes 11 3-point field goals per game and scores 84.7 points per game. Houston allows 62.2 points a game. The key for Houston's defense will be to take away Illinois's edge in offensive rebounding, and I think Houston will be very active throughout and nullify that edge. Houston to win.
Iowa has won and covered four of the last five meetings with Nebraska, and they meet tonight for the third time this season in the Sweet 16 played in Houston. Iowa was a team that I didn't believe deserved to make the tournament field with 12 losses on the season, but here they are in the Sweet 16 playing their Cornhusker buddies. I think the difference in this game will be Nebraska's defense, which allows only 40.2% shooting, compared to Iowa’s defense that allows 46% shooting. Nebraska reminds me of a poor man's Purdue because they shoot the ball well, pass the ball well, and don't turn it over. Nebraska's dream stays alive as they win tonight.
Texas has won its first three games of the NCAA Tournament, and now it's made it to the Sweet 16 in San Jose to face second-seed Purdue. Texas had lost its last three games before the tournament started and had 14 losses on the season. Thinking about what Purdue can do to this team, you can't help but think about Texas losing to Mississippi in the SEC tournament and Oklahoma at home. If Purdue just plays their regular game, which is making lots of 3-pointers and not turning the ball over, it’ll be fine. They are third in the nation with 19.9 assists per game. I think that if Purdue just plays their regular game, it should win by 12 or more.
Saint Joseph’s finished third at 13-5 in the Atlantic 10 conference, and they ended up 24-11 on the season with 20 covers while staying under 22 times. They travel to New Mexico (25-10) tonight for the NIT Quarterfinals, and they're getting 11 points from a team that is basically the same but faster. Saint Joseph's is playing their best ball of the season, winning and covering their last nine of 10 games. They won their first two NIT games as an underdog. New Mexico has lost four of its last eight. Contrasting styles meet tonight, with New Mexico averaging 81.5 points a game and Saint Joseph's allowing only 69.8. Saint Joseph plus the points.
The line has dropped from Florida -10.5 to -9.5 against Iowa in the second round of the NCAA tournament in Tampa. That's good news for me because I was going to lay 10.5. Iowa had 12 losses on the season and wilted against top-level competition. They lost to ordinary Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. They lost their last three games of the regular season, including at Penn State, where they were a 9.5-point favorite. Florida does not shoot threes that well, but they don't need to with that big lineup inside. They will outmuscle and outperform Iowa. Florida covers.
Tulsa had its NCAA dreams wiped away by losing to Wichita State in the American Conference Tournament, and they now welcome UNLV in the Second Round of the NIT. Tulsa finished 27-7 this season, but more importantly for this bet, they went 22-10 to the over. The team they're playing was also one of the better over teams in the nation, as UNLV went 20-13 to the over. This is one where the total should probably be 172, but I'm laying less than 162. Just the over on this game.