Micah's Picks (1 Live)
Iowa from the Big Ten is 8-1, and Iowa State from the Big 12 is 9-0, and both teams have covered seven of nine games. After beating St. John's by one two weeks ago, Iowa State has gone on a run of beating its next four opponents by 18 points or more. They had their best win in their last game at Purdue, winning 81-58, shooting 58%, and 48% from three. They've beaten Iowa the last 2 years by nine points or more. Iowa State leads the nation in field goal percentage, hitting 54.9% and is No. 3 in three-point shots made at 43.8%. Iowa played its first road game 9 days ago at Michigan State and lost by 19. Iowa State.
Villanova is 7-1 this season, but what I see in their record is a bunch of wins against Pennsylvania schools and losing to their one tough school, BYU. They're facing No. 2 Michigan, which is 8-0 and have won five of the games by 30 points. They won by 40 points in the last two, including a win over Gonzaga, which was favored by 2.5 points. Dusty May has his team ready for battle, and they're averaging 94 points a game and shooting 52.8%. Their best attribute, though, is how the whole team has bought into defense, allowing only 34.6% shooting. Villanova doesn't have Jay Wright anymore, or even Kyle Neptune, who's been replaced this season by Kevin Willard as head coach.
Belmont comes in first in the Missouri Valley at 8-1, and they play at Middle Tennessee from Conference USA, who is 5-3 on the season. I thought we'd be looking at a six-point spread, but it's two or less, and it's a must-play for me today. Belmont has won the last two meetings. The highlights for Belmont are that they shoot 51.5% from the field, and they defend well, holding opponents to 36% which ranks eighth in the nation. Belmont to win.
Coach Jerrod Calhoun has his Utah State squad with a 7-0 start. Guard Mason Falslev turned down big NIL money to return to Utah State, along with four other Aggies from last year, and a couple of key transfers to provide the positive vibes all around. They feel good about themselves. For one, they're shooting 53.4% from the field, which is the fourth-best number in the nation. They also shoot 39.5% from three-point range. They have a defense that only allows 39% shooting. That's the combination I highlight: over 50, under 40. Utah State should probably be closer to a five-point favorite in this game over South Florida, which has struggled with shooting during its 4-4 start. Utah State to win.
Coach Ben McCollum parlayed his success at Drake last year into taking the job at Iowa, and he's producing as the Hawkeyes are 7-0 while being underrated the whole way, covering the spread in six of the games. The team is shooting 53.1% from the field, good enough for eighth in the nation. But this will be their first test tonight at Michigan State. They'll be an underdog for the first time this year. They've had an easy schedule to start, with their stiffest competition being Mississippi, which they were favored by 4. Michigan State is also 7-0, except they beat three ranked teams: Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina. Their defense only allows 38% shooting, and part of the reason I'm betting Michigan State.
We get to learn a lot more about California Baptist from the WAC at Boulder tonight when they face the Buffaloes, with both teams at 7-0 on the year. Colorado beat Washington in their last game and beat Providence earlier in the year, and they returned 33% of their scoring from last year. California Baptist beat San Diego, Irvine, and Oregon State, and they return all five starters from last year's team, along with two reserves. This team is intact, and the continued continuity is worth betting on today. Colorado shoots 51.6% from the field, but they don't play any defense. Colorado scores 90 points per game, while Cal Baptist allows only 63. I'm on Cal Baptist plus the points.
Western Michigan from the MAC is 3-4 on the season, and they play at Valparaiso from the Missouri Valley, which is 4-2 this season, but they were predicted to finish last in the conference. Valparaiso came in with 11 brand-new players, and so far, they've proven very green, hitting only 37.3% from the field. That means 356 teams in the country shoot better than Valparaiso. They score 67 points a game and allow 70. This is a game I think will be a grind that Western Michigan can win, but I’m taking the points.
Michigan State beat North Carolina last November 94-91 in overtime as a 5-point underdog with the game going over the total of 158. This year, both teams are 6-0, with North Carolina scoring big wins over Kansas and St Bonaventure, and Michigan State beating Arkansas and Kentucky. North Carolina has one returning starter, and Michigan State has two returning starters and two key rotation players. But the one thing I respect most this early in the season is having a coach who gets an edge with the referees, and that's Tom Izzo. You watch a couple of times in this game when he complains to the ref, he gets a call right away. The coach matters when the kids don't know how to win yet.
UC Irvine shoots 49.9% from the field and allows only 36.1% shooting, and yet they're only 3-3 on the season without covering a single game. What's wrong with this team? Those are outstanding metrics that usually lead to wins. In their last two games, they lost to Northern Iowa by one and Utah Valley by 7, not to mention losing to California Baptist early in the season. New Mexico State is 4-0 this year with the big win over New Mexico 10 days ago. The Aggies are the play in the Cancun Challenge.
I made George Mason a 9.5 to 10 point favorite, and the line came out 7.5 and quickly dropped to 6.5, making it a must-play for me today. George Mason is 5-0 in Tony Skinn’s third season as coach, and they've got a nice mix of seniors with young guys. They got one returning starter from last year's 27-win team. Ohio is 1-4 with their last loss coming as a 7-point favorite against Bethune-Cookman. The George Mason defense is holding opponents to 37% shooting. This game is being played at a neutral site, the Daytona Ocean Center. George Mason to cover.
Coach Shantay Legans has two returning rotation players from last year's 12-20 squad, but the team lost all five starters and seven of its top eight scorers coming into this season. However, the team has persevered to start the season with a 4-1 record, and they come off a win against Fullerton yesterday, whereas Northern Colorado lost to St. Thomas. Portland's having a good shot selection and hitting at 49.7%. Portland to win.
We've got a battle of two 5-0 teams in Kansas State of the Big 12 against Nebraska, which is now in the Big Ten. It's the final of the Hall of Fame classic in Kansas City. Nebraska beat New Mexico covering eight points, and before that, they beat a good Oklahoma squad. Kansas State hasn't covered three of its last four. Nebraska shoots 49% from the field while Kansas State holds opponents to 44.8% shooting. Nebraska should be a five-point favorite in this game, and I'm getting it cheap.
Coach Johnny Dawkins had to start this year with an entirely new crew except for two walk-ons who didn't score on last year's 20-17 team. But what I’m most impressed with is the new guys' win on the road at Texas A&M. The game was tied at halftime, and then Central Florida outscored them by 12 points in the second half to win 86-74. They shot 50% on the road and also 50% from three-point range. They hit their free throws, making 94%. They're 4-1 on the season, and they’ve shot 50.5% from the field. Dawkins has them taking smart shots. Pitt’s only loss was on the road at West Virginia by 22 points last week.
We’ve got UC Irvine from the Big West at 3-1 on the season playing at Utah Valley from the WAC at 2-2 on the season. UC Irvine, winners of 32 games last season, is shooting 53.7% from the field which ranks 17th in the nation and their third in the nation with 38 made field goals a game. Irvine also leads a nation with 25.2 assists per game. This team is fast and quick and averages 98.8 points a game. They win and we're getting points.