UConn’s resilience through injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes the call of Dan Hurley for his teams to show the heart of a champion in the postseason. Hurley is also 9-0 against the spread the last four years in the NCAA Tournament on a short turnaround spot (less than 48 hours to prep). The Huskies are going to face a tough foe in Michigan’s front line, but they are coming into the game after facing another team with size in Illinois and passing the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament run has included three single-digit seeds from the Big Ten with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong showing defensively against all three teams.

Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, but this is not a good matchup for UConn. The Huskies' top player in this run, 6-11 Tarris Reed Jr., will face a towering Michigan front line. The Wolverines have been so good in the NCAA Tournament (five wins by 13-plus points), they are reminding people of Hurley's 2024 team that won every March Madness game by at least 14 points. Look for Elliot Cadeau to play a lot better than he did in the semis (5 for 17, six turnovers) as Michigan pulls away late and covers its fifth straight.

Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.

Put yourself in Coach Dan Hurley's position. He's seen what's happening in the tournament with Michigan scoring 90 points or more against its opponents. He has to strategize for it, and I think he's going to figure out a way not to play their game. His team allowed an average of 65.1 points per game this season. He should be prepared and ready to execute. Michigan was not covering heading into the Tournament and scored 72 or less against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Hold them down; it can be done. Duke beat them 68-63 in February. Hurley carries championships as badges on his sports coat. Michigan under 75.5, and Connecticut also has a chance to win.

I'm still stinging after watching what Michigan did to my Arizona team on Saturday night. The 2025-26 Wolverines just might be an all-timer of a team. But UConn's Dan Hurley is the best coach in college basketball and is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet Sixteen onward. I just can't be confident in a spread pick on the game. Instead, I'll be investing in the total and likely going against the public. I know that Michigan has scored 90+ points in all five tournament games, but I believe Dan Hurley finds a way to scheme a much slower pace to this contest. Also, dating back to 2017, National Championship unders are 6-2. Michigan 74, UConn 67.